Oct 28 2008
Gallup Stunner – Obama Down To 2% Lead Nationally!
Later tonight I will be doing the second “Nightly Bi-Poller Report” and it will be an interesting post because Gallup has come out today with a stunning poll for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model:
Even Gallup’s fanciful ‘Extended’ turnout model took a huge dip. The electorate is giving me gray hairs, but they seem to finally be coming home (thanks Obama, for giving your ‘closing argument’ yesterday).
I think Americans are really irritated with the Political Industrial Complex declaring the race over and selecting Obama (see here) or it was the fact the French President called Obama naive on Iraq, or it could be the wrath of problems with voter registration, but Obama is slipping.
My guess – Obama blew it with his wealth redistribution comments, which begins with the government confiscating ‘wealth’ to hand out. Obama may have stumbled horribly here in the final stretch, and people are starting to realize how bad this guy really is. I like what one caller said this morning (on I think was Bill Bennett’s show). He compared Obama’s redistribution of wealth to school grades, where you work hard to make A’s but end up with a B or C because someone who did not apply themselves needed a boost. A great and simple analogy to what is wrong with Obama.
Barrack has closed his argument with America a week too soon it seems.
35 Responses to “Gallup Stunner – Obama Down To 2% Lead Nationally!”
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AJ in related news did you see where Obama is going to be at on a critical Friday before the election. IOWA. I guess the mcCain camp was not so crazy afer all.
Interesting
BigLSU,
I was wondering where his travels would be. I would bet he spends a lot of time in PA as well!
Some guys every – single – one of us would vote for at http://fuanglada.wordpress.com/
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along with a few words about the campaign…
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Advice, Aj… Keep hammering the issues of “troika” – Redistribution – spread wealth – and whatever “issues” you think are winners for Senator McCain… In my opinion, long posts about polls obscure your better points on why Senator Obama should not be our choice…
I would like to see Battleground and IBD’s polls for today to see if they have the same movement. I’m still waiting to see McCain ahead in at least one poll. That would break the bandwagon syndrome. It would throw the MSM into chaos.
MarkN,
Couldn’t agree with you more.
But as I reconsider, sprinkling poll swings amongst the redistribution, troika stuff is effective also… As my post at Fuanglada opines… Military and weapons development and other technology cuts will be among Senator Obama’s sources of $$ for his social development and redistribution of wealth agenda…
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AJ,
Sorry for the off-topic, but did you ever get attendance figures for those three-in-one-day Palin rallies in Virginia? I’ve been curious about the turnout since you first mentioned it.
Phineas,
Not for them all. 10,000 in Leesburg, a few thousand in Fredricksburg (rain dampened it) and a record crowd in Salem. Might get a chance to look them up, but if you want I just google “palin + crowd” and usually find someone reporting them
Beware though, the UK Telegraph reported Obama got 30,000 and Palin 3,000 in Leesburg – which is pure rubbish.
Geez… As if from above… here is confirmation of my opinon… http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122515034714574183.html
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Barney Frank will not soon be named secretary of defense or, insha’Allah, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. So there’s really no reason to fear that his recent call to cut defense spending by 25% is a harbinger of what to expect in an Obama administration. [sarc alert]
Read it all…
I wonder if this is because of the tax issues now coming out.
For example, Obama claims that no new taxes for those under $250K. Today I heard that Biden says it really is $150K (h/t HotAir). Now I have not heard of anyone talking about two things.
One, what happens if Obama is elected and they let the Bush tax cuts expire? Is that not a tax increase on everyone, or is just a “lapse of a tax cut” as Obama states? According to the tax tables, our tax rates will go back to the 2000 level at the end of 2010. For a couple with a taxable income of $75,000, the tax increase will be over $3,800. Check out your own tax increase at:
http://www.moneychimp.com/features/tax_brackets.htm
The second thing is what Rush and others have been talking about, the elimination of the 401(k) tax deductions.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122477680834462659.html
The thing is Obama promised to be a change, something new, but this class warfare is classic Democratic demagoguery from decades past. The medical plan is warmed over Hillarycare and there really is nothing so new after all.
I was reading that Obama was considering a payroll tax to pay for the medical plan. And payroll taxes are paid by working people. Just look at that paycheck and imagine a new program to be added to the deductions along with Social Security, medicare, state and county taxes.
The thing is Obama talks a lot, makes a lot of promises, but is vague on the details and maybe people are starting to wonder about that.
AJ,
I think there may be a bigger story here. If we see a 3 point jump for McCain with a 2 point spread between the two. This *could* conceivably mean that the last day of the rolling average had McCain beating Obama, but averaged out to +2 Obama when the previous two days of data were included. If I had time, I would systematically deconvolve the data from when the poll was initiated and figure out what the likely range for the polling data on Oct 27 was. This might show the McCain goes ahead data point that the Obama camp is dreading.
bobsunshine,
I heard about those two items you mentioned today as well. My first thought was – why do any of these details matter? Obama can say that he won’t tax anyone who makes under $500,000 or a million. When he is elected and the Democrat congress is seated (with perhaps a veto-proof majority in the Senate), we, the American people, will be officially out of the picture, and they will be able do whatever they want, at least for two years. Remember the Clinton retro-active tax increase of 1993? I do! Think it can’t happen again? Think again!
Of course, the damage to our incomes will pale in comparison to the damage rendered to our society by the courts. When you hear about the ten commandments being outlawed, Christmas and Easter being removed as official holidays, the elimination of the Pledge of Allegiance, the repeal of the second amendment, or simply some bizarre ruling giving illegals the right to vote in your city, you will also hear that these decisions were rendered by ** Obama-appointed judges **.
Falkner,
Agreed. Just eyeballing the numbers with Obama +5 running for 2 of the 3 days it would mean McCain had a +4 day yesterday to bring it down that much. Will know tomorrow because if that trend stabilizes Gallup will show McCain with +1 tomorrow (+5, -4, -4) and McCain +4 the next day (-4, -4, -4).
Cheers, AJStrata
Over-exposure to Roland Martin and Stephanie Miller on CNN?
Seeing gas prices dropping so fast can re-focus attention to whether any president influences the economy.
Probably a lot of people are getting tired of Obama’s attack ad on McCain as Bush. So much repetition of that ad gets tiring – the flipside of spending so much money.
Maybe more people are reading this string of nineteen articles/editorials about Sarah Palin that started May 22 at Investor’s Business Daily, which has made it easy to find this URL for the entire series, which is how the media should have been covering Palin all along:
http://ibdeditorials.com/series9.aspx
Sarah Palin’s recent interviews and rallies have made that Couric interview a distant memory. Maybe Janine Turner and Elizabeth Hasselback are more influential than Colin Powell, who allegedly also endorsed Ted Stevens.
AJ,
Thanks for the locations. The Roanoke Times reports 1,260, but that filled the Salem stadium to capacity. Best quote:
“And in the corner of the A section sat Betty Fitzgerald, a Bedford County resident who was voting Republican before the Alaskan governor was born. “Vote Pitbull Palin!” read one button pinned to her pink baseball cap.
“I’m 76 years old. I’ve been through [the Great] Depression and all the rest,” Fitzgerald said, gazing at the stage where Palin would soon stand. “I see what every woman my age wants to see in a daughter, a daughter-in-law, a grandchild.”"
The majority of Americans do not like the idea that their “stuff” should be confiscated by Big Brother and blithely given to someone else for the purpose of buying their loyalty…that is, their vote. Nor do most people believe that the Constitution is flawed because it provides too many rights to the people and too few to the state! McCain should have made these points in a far more powerful way, but they are getting out in spite of the efforts of the MSM. Should McCain win this election it will be in spite of his efforts and because of those of Palin, Strata, Rush, Savage, Hannity, Ingraham, Malcolm etc, etc.
Pollster is only carrying the extended version of Gallop which helping to skew their polling.
But even the Kos poll shows a drop of 5 points from 12 down to 7 today. Their model their poll people are using show only 2% undecided which is probably low.
That is with a split of D48 R36 I 16 which is way over on Dem weighting
This also flashed across my screen as I was checking email message over at GMail:
Elections Race Tightening – MSN.com/MSNBC_News – McCain & Obama Neck & Neck Get The Latest Update Now On MSN
For what it’s worth,
-Joe
I was looking at the outlier Pew poll and their split is D38 R28 I 32 and they believe 18-29 will almost tripple their past voting trends and sample almost 43% from Battleground states which is way high for over sampling based on population and registration distribution
AJ,
I couldn’t help myself, I went back and did a little bit of analysis.
My best guess is that for the data collected yesterday, McCain was up by about 0.5%. If this number is stable in the data collected today, I would expect tomorrow’s tracking poll results to show Obama with about a 0.4% lead.
Of course, if McCain gains more ground, it isn’t inconceivable that the tracker could flip over to McCain tomorrow. For this to happen, I think there would have to be about a 2% McCain edge in today’s daily numbers. While this seems a little unlikely, stranger things have happened.
Hmmm…. Dow up 889.35 (10.88%) today….McCain moves into a statistical tie with Obama in the Gallup Poll…correlation?? ;^)
AJ,
What about Ralph Nader? Apparently he is on the Penn. ballot this year.
I don’t even see Nader figured into these polls, yet last election he got upwards of 3% in some states.
Yeah, that’s ONE way to analyze the recent polls…
another way to look at is if Obama takes Colorado and Pennsylvania, for example, or any other combination of swingers where he seems to have at least SOME kind of lead… he wins easily…
I like his chances…
McCain could take the entire party down with him too… as Palin starts to distance herself from him with her own future in mind…
Then there’s the Senate… where the Dems could potentially take 60 seats… and you know what that means…
You ‘optimists’ have a week left… keep it up!
deny, deny, deny
[...] The Strata-Sphere [...]
bush_is_best
i’m gonna predict you’re gonna be in a lot of stress by the weekend, assuming you’re watching the polls.
Any source for poll that shows Irish-Americans at 63% for McCain?
One of the most interesting outcomes of the extended Democratic primary season was seeing how Hillary consistently decisively won every county in America with majority Irish ancestry, even those rare counties in Oregon and one in Montana. I compared county by county results with Ancestry map based on 2000 census. Key vote in MA, NY, PA. Italian vote very concentrated in CT, NY, NJ.
Obamaworld in a tizzy over this poll, though their response is that it is “confusion” over McCain’s position on the Northern Ireland Peace Accords. NOT! They should study some American history…and consider the threat of FOCA is getting some traction with Catholic voters in general.
redmeat –
Make all the predictions you want – I predict a weekend of wild parties and about 1000 not-so-kind sarah palin costume variations…
Stress will come about Tuesday when we see what kind of people this country is made of…
If you are predicting stress for my side… you must be predicting a real sh*t-your-pants scenario from yours, right?
May the best man win…
Once he falls, what can stop his fall? Already he has asked people to ignore all issues as a “distraction” from worshipping him as an alternative to Bush, who is leaving anyway. He’s outspent McCain 4 to 1 and he will oversell the brand. His blessed face is only blessed to his believers. The more others see it, the more suspicious they will become of the profound secrecy about his past that surrounds him, the dodgy associations with socialists, communists, racketeers and the like; the criticism of “fundamental flaws” in the constitution, the “problem” of massively redistributing income through the courts (it’s “unfortunately”difficult) because they have to consider all kinds of pesky issues like, say, theft, private property: the kind of things that wouldn’t bother a Marxist. But I digress from the real issue… do you believe in Him? Do you believe in The One? Do you? Really? Isn’t America is a land of LAWS, not men? If you believe that One Man – ANY man is The Answer, please, for the love of God, freedom and government of the people by the people for the people (not government of the people by the special people for the very special people), give your head a shake.
bib,
You have just shown me why everything I do is working. Cracks are showing in your own armor. I will keep fighting. Calling me an ‘optimist’ is NOT the insult you wish it to be.
Thanks for the pep talk.
LJStrata
Phineas,
See this report on Sarah’s rally in
southwestern VA
I was at the Leesburg Rally really early. I was there (earlier than I wanted to because DJStrata is a die hard) at 5:45 am and you couldn’t get near the place. We parked in a neighborhood quite a ways away and walked in, it was faster than driving.
I plan to call all three VA location’s sheriff offices to get the real numbers. I’ll let ya all know…
Thanks, LJ. Wow, that report on the Salem rally has the crowd ten times larger than what I read elsewhere. The earlier one must’ve been a misprint, since I can’t imagine holding a rally in a stadium built for less than 2,000.
Unless it’s a Biden rally.
that’s cool LJ… always happy to give the underdog a pep talk…
I’m supporting a liberal black guy, running for president of the united states… in the face of, well, less than honorable opposition… cracks in the armor are the least of my worries…
we’re supporting a cause that we believe in, for peaceful reasons… with peace, national prosperity and international respect the goal…
in return we get accusations ranging from nazi! terrorist! arab! fraud! cheater! america hater!
READ THIS AND DISAREE:
In this country, it is OK to be born to a single mom. It is OK to be black. It is OK to work hard in school and gain a scholarship to a top college. It is OK to get a law degree from Harvard. It is OK to forgo riches in favor of helping those less fortunate. It is OK to serve in the state legislature. It is OK to serve on the US Senate. It is OK to represent your constituents. It is OK to run for president, even if you have a funny name, that sounds kinda like people who are supposedly our enemies. IT IS OK TO BE ALL OF THESE THINGS AT ONCE.
Some people might use that as an example of the American dream my grandfather fought to protect.
I do not expect you to be one of them.
I’m glad you are optimistic. You better damn well believe we are.
I mean no insult to you personally… but insults fly around here, so I participate as such.
(I am NOT saying its OK to pal around with terrorists, its NOT OK to be a true, true socialist as an American president, etc, etc… so please, don’t come back with the predictable, my point is that you don’t have the human ability to acknowledge things apparent, right in front of your face, and be honorable when up against real competition)
BIB,
How do you reconcile your own words? See below.
So I’m not being insulted when you say I don’t have “human ability”? I guess I can’t take it personally if I’m not human, right?
Hmmm, now to reply
Try walking door to door in Northern VA. I have been and will continue to do so. My optimism comes from the people I’m talking to who are genuinely excited about McCain Palin, and are frightened of a Dem controlled DC and are unwilling to believe the rhetoric BO is selling.
LJ – sorry – not insinuating you are not human, or shouldn’t be respected for holding true to your ideals. Its fine and honorable to support your candidate and take comfort in the company of people who agree with you…
I reconcile my words as such – acknowledge things apparent: When 60 million people vote for Obama, its not because 60 million people are dumb. Its not because 60 million people are voting illegally or being duped. It is because he is talented, and represents a better solution for america in the minds the majority. Certainly the majority around the world.
He is not going to bomb your house, I guarantee you. He is not going to take your money. You CAN and WILL succeed. If poor people eat food and get medicine tomorrow when yesterday they did not, that is NOT A BAD THING, even if you think the dollars should go elsewhere or if you’d like to keep that from happening.
Elect your candidate based on his/her qualifications only. Do not spend the vast majority of your time and effort searching for scraps to drag your opponent down, and then clinging to them, all the while ignoring any negative attention your candidate gets. Acknowledge it all, and do it fairly, and evenly, exactly as you would want done to you. Do not agree with Obama. Acknowledge his progress for what it is.
Acknowledge it.
I predicted that you cannot and my prediction still holds true.