Oct 28 2008
Gallup Stunner – Obama Down To 2% Lead Nationally!
Later tonight I will be doing the second “Nightly Bi-Poller Report” and it will be an interesting post because Gallup has come out today with a stunning poll for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model:
Even Gallup’s fanciful ‘Extended’ turnout model took a huge dip. The electorate is giving me gray hairs, but they seem to finally be coming home (thanks Obama, for giving your ‘closing argument’ yesterday).Â
I think Americans are really irritated with the Political Industrial Complex declaring the race over and selecting Obama (see here) or it was the fact the French President called Obama naive on Iraq, or it could be the wrath of problems with voter registration, but Obama is slipping.
My guess – Obama blew it with his wealth redistribution comments, which begins with the government confiscating ‘wealth’ to hand out. Obama may have stumbled horribly here in the final stretch, and people are starting to realize how bad this guy really is. I like what one caller said this morning (on I think was Bill Bennett’s show). He compared Obama’s redistribution of wealth to school grades, where you work hard to make A’s but end up with a B or C because someone who did not apply themselves needed a boost. A great and simple analogy to what is wrong with Obama.
Barrack has closed his argument with America a week too soon it seems.
AJ in related news did you see where Obama is going to be at on a critical Friday before the election. IOWA. I guess the mcCain camp was not so crazy afer all.
Interesting
BigLSU,
I was wondering where his travels would be. I would bet he spends a lot of time in PA as well!
Some guys every – single – one of us would vote for at http://fuanglada.wordpress.com/
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along with a few words about the campaign…
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Advice, Aj… Keep hammering the issues of “troika” – Redistribution – spread wealth – and whatever “issues” you think are winners for Senator McCain… In my opinion, long posts about polls obscure your better points on why Senator Obama should not be our choice…
I would like to see Battleground and IBD’s polls for today to see if they have the same movement. I’m still waiting to see McCain ahead in at least one poll. That would break the bandwagon syndrome. It would throw the MSM into chaos.
MarkN,
Couldn’t agree with you more.
But as I reconsider, sprinkling poll swings amongst the redistribution, troika stuff is effective also… As my post at Fuanglada opines… Military and weapons development and other technology cuts will be among Senator Obama’s sources of $$ for his social development and redistribution of wealth agenda…
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AJ,
Sorry for the off-topic, but did you ever get attendance figures for those three-in-one-day Palin rallies in Virginia? I’ve been curious about the turnout since you first mentioned it.
Phineas,
Not for them all. 10,000 in Leesburg, a few thousand in Fredricksburg (rain dampened it) and a record crowd in Salem. Might get a chance to look them up, but if you want I just google “palin + crowd” and usually find someone reporting them
Beware though, the UK Telegraph reported Obama got 30,000 and Palin 3,000 in Leesburg – which is pure rubbish.
Geez… As if from above… here is confirmation of my opinon… http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122515034714574183.html
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Barney Frank will not soon be named secretary of defense or, insha’Allah, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. So there’s really no reason to fear that his recent call to cut defense spending by 25% is a harbinger of what to expect in an Obama administration. [sarc alert]
Read it all…
I wonder if this is because of the tax issues now coming out.
For example, Obama claims that no new taxes for those under $250K. Today I heard that Biden says it really is $150K (h/t HotAir). Now I have not heard of anyone talking about two things.
One, what happens if Obama is elected and they let the Bush tax cuts expire? Is that not a tax increase on everyone, or is just a “lapse of a tax cut” as Obama states? According to the tax tables, our tax rates will go back to the 2000 level at the end of 2010. For a couple with a taxable income of $75,000, the tax increase will be over $3,800. Check out your own tax increase at:
http://www.moneychimp.com/features/tax_brackets.htm
The second thing is what Rush and others have been talking about, the elimination of the 401(k) tax deductions.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122477680834462659.html
The thing is Obama promised to be a change, something new, but this class warfare is classic Democratic demagoguery from decades past. The medical plan is warmed over Hillarycare and there really is nothing so new after all.
I was reading that Obama was considering a payroll tax to pay for the medical plan. And payroll taxes are paid by working people. Just look at that paycheck and imagine a new program to be added to the deductions along with Social Security, medicare, state and county taxes.
The thing is Obama talks a lot, makes a lot of promises, but is vague on the details and maybe people are starting to wonder about that.
AJ,
I think there may be a bigger story here. If we see a 3 point jump for McCain with a 2 point spread between the two. This *could* conceivably mean that the last day of the rolling average had McCain beating Obama, but averaged out to +2 Obama when the previous two days of data were included. If I had time, I would systematically deconvolve the data from when the poll was initiated and figure out what the likely range for the polling data on Oct 27 was. This might show the McCain goes ahead data point that the Obama camp is dreading.
bobsunshine,
I heard about those two items you mentioned today as well. My first thought was – why do any of these details matter? Obama can say that he won’t tax anyone who makes under $500,000 or a million. When he is elected and the Democrat congress is seated (with perhaps a veto-proof majority in the Senate), we, the American people, will be officially out of the picture, and they will be able do whatever they want, at least for two years. Remember the Clinton retro-active tax increase of 1993? I do! Think it can’t happen again? Think again!
Of course, the damage to our incomes will pale in comparison to the damage rendered to our society by the courts. When you hear about the ten commandments being outlawed, Christmas and Easter being removed as official holidays, the elimination of the Pledge of Allegiance, the repeal of the second amendment, or simply some bizarre ruling giving illegals the right to vote in your city, you will also hear that these decisions were rendered by ** Obama-appointed judges **.
Falkner,
Agreed. Just eyeballing the numbers with Obama +5 running for 2 of the 3 days it would mean McCain had a +4 day yesterday to bring it down that much. Will know tomorrow because if that trend stabilizes Gallup will show McCain with +1 tomorrow (+5, -4, -4) and McCain +4 the next day (-4, -4, -4).
Cheers, AJStrata
Over-exposure to Roland Martin and Stephanie Miller on CNN?
Seeing gas prices dropping so fast can re-focus attention to whether any president influences the economy.
Probably a lot of people are getting tired of Obama’s attack ad on McCain as Bush. So much repetition of that ad gets tiring – the flipside of spending so much money.
Maybe more people are reading this string of nineteen articles/editorials about Sarah Palin that started May 22 at Investor’s Business Daily, which has made it easy to find this URL for the entire series, which is how the media should have been covering Palin all along:
http://ibdeditorials.com/series9.aspx
Sarah Palin’s recent interviews and rallies have made that Couric interview a distant memory. Maybe Janine Turner and Elizabeth Hasselback are more influential than Colin Powell, who allegedly also endorsed Ted Stevens.
AJ,
Thanks for the locations. The Roanoke Times reports 1,260, but that filled the Salem stadium to capacity. Best quote:
“And in the corner of the A section sat Betty Fitzgerald, a Bedford County resident who was voting Republican before the Alaskan governor was born. “Vote Pitbull Palin!” read one button pinned to her pink baseball cap.
“I’m 76 years old. I’ve been through [the Great] Depression and all the rest,” Fitzgerald said, gazing at the stage where Palin would soon stand. “I see what every woman my age wants to see in a daughter, a daughter-in-law, a grandchild.””
The majority of Americans do not like the idea that their “stuff” should be confiscated by Big Brother and blithely given to someone else for the purpose of buying their loyalty…that is, their vote. Nor do most people believe that the Constitution is flawed because it provides too many rights to the people and too few to the state! McCain should have made these points in a far more powerful way, but they are getting out in spite of the efforts of the MSM. Should McCain win this election it will be in spite of his efforts and because of those of Palin, Strata, Rush, Savage, Hannity, Ingraham, Malcolm etc, etc.
Pollster is only carrying the extended version of Gallop which helping to skew their polling.
But even the Kos poll shows a drop of 5 points from 12 down to 7 today. Their model their poll people are using show only 2% undecided which is probably low.
That is with a split of D48 R36 I 16 which is way over on Dem weighting
This also flashed across my screen as I was checking email message over at GMail:
Elections Race Tightening – MSN.com/MSNBC_News – McCain & Obama Neck & Neck Get The Latest Update Now On MSN
For what it’s worth,
-Joe
I was looking at the outlier Pew poll and their split is D38 R28 I 32 and they believe 18-29 will almost tripple their past voting trends and sample almost 43% from Battleground states which is way high for over sampling based on population and registration distribution