Oct 28 2008
McCain has allowed some of the campaign’s internal poll information to come out to the public – probably to give hope and energy to his base and generate some news. Â I am sure both objectives will be achieved. Here are the more interesting tidbits:
The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states â€¦ with our numbers IMPROVING sharply over the last four tracks.
As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.
The race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied on the last two-day roll. These gains are coming from sub-groups it should be possible to sustain over the next week, including:
- Non-college men;
- Rural voters, both men and women;
- Right-to-life voters; and most encouragingly;
- We are beginning to once again get over a 20% chunk of the vote among soft Democrats.
Seems the PUMAs and Blue Dog – Reagan Democrats are coming home.
Finally, in terms of critical improvement, even as this track shows more Republicans voting for us than Democrats supporting Obama, we are witnessing an impressive â€œpopâ€ with Independent voters.
This has been the week where â€œJoe the Plumberâ€ has literally become a household name. An astounding 59% of voters in these battleground states have heard â€œa lotâ€ about this story, 83% have heard â€œa lotâ€ or â€œsomeâ€ about this episode.
In our tracking, now 59% of battleground voters describe Senator Obama as being a â€œliberal,â€ a percentage that is higher than previous Democrat losers Gore/Kerry, and significantly higher than for President Clinton and President Carter.
A majority (54%) of voters profile as saying Senator Obama is more liberal than they see themselves politically.
Public Opinion Strategies has been using a 1 to 10 scale to help look at self-described interest in the election since 1993. In 1996, in our last track, 48% of voters described their interest in the election as a â€œ10.â€ In 2000, the last track was 54% saying â€œ10.â€ Remarkably, in 2004, our last track had self-described â€œ10sâ€ at 75% of the electorate.
You need to understand we are witnessing a day-to-day trend of serious magnitude as self-described â€œ10sâ€ increase in every roll.
Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10! Wow.
In todayâ€™s terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters!
There is simply no model that begins to know or predict the composition of the electorate at this level of turn-out.
Let me be clear here – the Democrats alone cannot be generating that kind of voter interest. 81% means both sides are excited and coming out to vote. Â Say good-bye to those ridiculously biased voter turnout models!
And who could be generating that kind of wave in the electorate? Gee, let me guess? Â Could it be the woman whose debate with Joe Biden now stands as the most watched debate of all time in America? Could it be the woman who command huge crowds that can rival Senator Obama’s? Could it be the woman from the heartland and Main Street of America? Could it be …
I saw the Republican Party today, standing in lineÂ to see Palin at Shippensburg University. The lineÂ stretched for more than half a mile –Â people waiting outside for hours on a windyÂ 40-degree day –Â and though the doors opened more than two hours before the event,Â security still wasn’t able to get everyone through the metal detectors by the time the rally began. Let’s see Buckley or Kathleen Parker or Ken Adelman draw a crowd like that.
If somehow John McCain pulls off a miracle Nov. 4, it will be in no small measure due to the excitement that Palin has brought to the ticket. Let the cynics attend a Palin event and try to imagine those crowds turning out for,Â inter alia, Tim Pawlenty.
As I have been saying there is a silent, angry wave building that is fed up with the DC/NY Political Industrial Complex (which includes the dying liberal media, the elitist talking heads, the lobbyists and power brokers, the hyper-partisans and the politicians). And since the political establishment’s candidate is Barack Obama, of course the nation’s voters – who believe by 90% this country is being led down the wrong track – would oppose anyone that is pushed by the very people the voters are rejecting.
We are about to make history – President Dewey kind of history.