Oct 29 2008
Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two Â different assumptions on turnout models.
The tracking polls in the â€˜traditionalâ€™ family use historic voting trends to weight things like party ID affiliation in their turnout models. Â The â€˜extendedâ€™ family of polls are based on the unproven assumption this yearâ€™s turnout will favor the Dems by 2-3 times the highest historic advantage ever seen in memory. Over the years there have been times when the Democrats have seen up to a 4% edge in voter turnout. The polls in the â€˜extendedâ€™ family assume a Democrat edge of 8-12% in their turnout models – crazy, eh?
Strata-Sphere Extended: Ob +6.0%
10_27_08 = Ob +7.3%
10_28_08 = Ob +6.3%
First, for the Obama supporters we provide the â€˜extendedâ€™ poll of polls. This group includes the following daily tracking polls (with todayâ€™s horse race numbers inÂ parentheses):Â Rasmussen ReportsÂ (Ob +3),Â Gallup (Expanded)Â (Ob +7) andÂ ABC News/Wash PostÂ (Ob +8).Â ThereforeÂ the Extended Poll average for today is Obama +6.0%Â (identical to the RCP average).
Strata-Sphere Traditional: Â Ob+ 4.2%
10_27_08 = Ob +4.8%
10_28_08 = Ob +4.0%
Now, for the McCain supporters we have the historically proven polling method. This group includes the followingÂ daily tracking polls (with todayâ€™s horse race numbers inÂ parentheses):Â Gallup (Traditional)Â (Ob +3),Â Reuters/C-SPAN/ZogbyÂ (Ob +5),Â Diageo/HotlineÂ (Ob +7),Â IBD/TIPPÂ (Ob +3) andÂ GWU/BattlegroundÂ (Ob +3).Â ThereforeÂ the Traditional Poll average for today is Obama +4.2%Â (not very close to the RCP average).
RCP National Average: Ob +6.0%
RCP has other, non-daily tracking polls, in their average. I have decided to just go with the daily polls for this analysis (though I did add them into the â€˜extendedâ€™ family as a one off example today).
Not much change in the traditional family of polls because of some noise in the various polls offsetting each other. IBD and Hotline dipped a point each, Zogby went up two and Gallup up one to more than offset those changes. So for the traditional model it has not changed much today.
Rassmussen gave McCain a 2 point jump, but Rasmussen still uses a large Dem advantage so he only impacts the ‘extended’ family (yes, I have been tempted to swap Rassmussen and Hotline since other variables in their turnout models make them look out of place – but this analysis only looks at the predicted dem advantage and whether we will see differences in line with history or some new history being made this year). The ABC/WaPo went up a point – so again a wash.
Bottom line – The RCP average is tracking closer to the ‘extended’ class of polls than the ‘traditional’ set. Turnout is key. But I do find it interesting that the ‘extended’ model family is starting to drop towards the ‘traditional’ family.Â