http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/10/notes_from_a_battleground_stat.html

If PA goes for McCain, it’s over…for Obama…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TG4fe9GlWS8

RedState has that same piece up. Lucianne links to it as a “Must Read” this morning (“Your Friday Shocker Blog: We can’t second source this nor do we know who wrote it….but, it has the ring of truth to it that will leave you breathless”).

I think moderation kind of grabs stuff from time to time. I saw that piece somewhere else too.

There’s a great scoop over at atlasshrugs
An Obama campaign staffer spills the beans on the internal strategy of
the Obama campaign,
This only a little snippet to get your interest:

“1 – Hillary voters. Internal polling suggests that at best, we are taking 70-75% of these voters. Other estimates are as low as 60% in some areas – particularly Ohio and western PA. My biggest problem with this campaign’s strategy was the decision NOT to offer Hillary the VP slot. She was ready and able to take this on, and would have campaigned enthusiastically for it. This selection would have also brought virtually all of her supporters into the fold, and the Obama campaign knew it. Though I have no way of knowing this for certain, and I do admit that I am relying on internal gossip, Senator Obama actually went against the advice of his top advisors. ”

Go and read the whole thing. It’s awesome.

The spam thingy won’t let give her web address, but you could just
use a search engine on atlasshrugs to find her

“Thursday, October 30, 2008

First exit poll of actual American votes from Israel shows big McCain win [Tom Gross]

Within the last hour, the first exit poll of 817 Americans in Israel, who attended U.S. election voting events in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening to vote by absentee ballot, has been released.

A startling 76 percent of those polled said that they had voted for John McCain. This contrasts sharply with pre-election polls of American Jews in the U.S., which indicate a strong preference for Obama.

The exit poll findings of American voters in Israel are all the more surprising because less than one in four were registered Republicans, and 46% of registered Democrats living in Israel said they had crossed party lines to vote McCain. By contrast, the Republican crossover to Obama was minimal – just 2%.

The votes are significant as almost half of the 42,000 registered U.S. voters living in Israel come from key swing states including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

In the 2000 and 2004 elections, Israel had the third-largest group of American voters abroad, after Canada and Britain.

The exit poll was commissioned by Votefromisrael.org, an independent, non-partisan organization dedicated to promoting voter registration and participation amongst American citizens living in Israel.”

If lets say a whole bunch of PUMA people are in the Dem voters who have already voted that means Mc is picking up a lot of those votes for tally purposes.

Those votes are sealed and wont be counted till election night.

Unless somebody does an exit poll of the early voters or some poll that relies on self identification they have zero way of knowing what the vote was.

Submission rates of absentee votes or counts of early voters have no direct linkage to outcome of the vote itself.

Something important to keep in mind: Networks do not make their money from news. They make their money by using the news to draw eyeballs to their advertising. Networks are advertisers. That is how they make their money.

It is in the interest of the networks and all news outlets to build the suspense at the end in order to attract the maximum possible attention to their advertising on election night. Election night advertising sells in the range of super bowl, olympic games, and world series advertising, to get a prime time election night ad on the air costs a company big bucks and the networks rake it in.

If it were a “shoo-in” for Obama or McCain, people won’t watch. If it is close, people will watch. If one candidate seemed to be way ahead and another candidate seems to suddenly come from behind and tie the score in the ninth inning, people who might not otherwise be interested are attracted due to the suspense.

And this works in favor of ALL news outlets so it becomes in their interest for all of them to play this “its all tied up in the ninth inning” shtick. It draws the maximum attention when they are making maximum dollar on their ads. And that is what news is designed to do, attract eyeballs to commercials.

Apparently the Obamanistas have been playing pretty hard trying to skew polling samples, polls, opinion content in blogging comments, etc. But that the race is so close says to me that they have failed utterly. They had, from my reading, hoped to have the numbers stoked into the couble-digits. But they can’t even hardly manage a 3 point lead in many polls. So with all that cheating, all that fraud, they still can’t pull clearly ahead says Obama is in deep do-do. Very deep do-do.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Obama lose by double digits, seriously. And he will if Republicans and crossover Democrats get to the polls.

I wonder how many of the Democrat ballots were filled out by PUMAs, Democrats For McCain, and the like?

That would be a very interesting statistic to see.

Maybe the NRA is right to stock up on guns and ammunition.

I know the Democrats have been pushing their people to get to the polls early, but I don’t know who is voting how. For instance, I heard that early voting in Florida was actually breaking for McCain, but who was doing the voting? Democrat or Republican or Independent?