Nov 02 2008
Obama Slipping In Ohio Too?
A lot of people claim there is no last minute surge for McCain – yet we see Obama slipping in PA, VA and now Ohio – with a poll showing McCain in the lead by 2%. Those who claim not to see a surge away from Obama in these final days must be looking the other way when it comes to these polls. I am not sure it is enough to bring McCain back to win from behind one last time, but there is a ‘surge’ out there with voters heading his way.
Update: Â Looking at all the polls from Mason Dixon I see an endless line of tied battleground states. MO is McCain +1, VA is Obama +3, PA is Obama +4, FL Obama +2. Â All these are statistical ties. Only CO looks to be a clear Obama lead. So how is it Obama can be leading by 13% nationally and tied in 7 out of 8 battleground states? He can’t be of course. Which means those national polls showing a tight race are being confirmed by these state polls from Mason Dixon.
Update: Pennsylvanians not happy with Obama!
I think that the national polls are probably trailing the state ones.
I think that there are enough non-responses in the polls, people who are refusing to talk to the pollsters that the polls may be skewed.
Suppose 3% of Hillary Clinton supporters say they are for Obama but really aren’t. Some of those groups are doing that. That becomes a 6% swing to McCain.
Suppose people are afraid when an Obama supporter “Gets in their face” and says “Yeah, I’m for Obama” when they are not.
It also appears to me that the internals of these polls have the democratic turnout pegged way to high relative to the Republican turnout.
I hope Jack Murtha is booted out for good.
What about those running for their congressional seats? How are the Republicans doing?
I am not sure what is happening here in Indiana. One poll has McCain ahead, one poll has Obama ahead, and one has them tied.
Damndest thing I have ever seen. No Democrat has won here in the presidential election since 1964. If Indiana did not vote for Clinton I have a hard time believing they will vote for Obama.
I saw this at Hot Air. A few hoosiers hear about this and it will be bad for Obama. Coal is huge here.
I am not sure what is happening here in Indiana. One poll has McCain ahead, one poll has Obama ahead, and one has them tied.
Strangest thing I have ever seen. No Democrat has won here in the presidential election since 1964. If Indiana did not vote for Clinton I have a hard time believing they will vote for Obama.
I saw this at Hot Air. A few hoosiers hear about this and it will be bad for Obama. Coal is huge here.
This election will tell us if the MSM has enough power to elect a totally unqualified, anti-American president. It will also tell us whether or not this nation can survive as a constitutional republic, providing first and foremost for the rights and liberty of the individual. The real American people will have to stand up and win against a stacked deck.
Pennsylvania has no early voting, but from what I see, I predict a massive GOP turnout. Note that this is a college town. Sarah Palin was here last week, and the next day, Bill Clinton. Palin drew 7,000+ and Clinton, 1,500. Except for State College Borough, where campus is, the county is a sea of McCain signs. At headquarters, we ran out of tickets to the Palin rally in under two hours, had to get more, and were so swamped with people wanting tickets, we had to send them all to the other headquarters just so we could work the phone bank. And we’ve had no shortage of volunteers. Also, give the College Republicans here mucho credit. They have been the force behind the McCain campaign here, and they’ve worked very hard. Certainly, this “youth vote” is all for Obama meme is, here, nonsense.
Also note that McCain has been campaigning the hell out of Pennsylvania. I don’t know how many rallies they’ve held here — I lost count a month ago — but at every one, they’ve drawn thousands. If Obama takes Pennsylvania, it will only be by a very narrow margin, because people are pumped up all over the state.
Add to that what I’ll call the Murtha Factor. His idiotic statements were on the front page of every paper in the state, and he really honked a lot of people off. Murtha beat Irey by 22 points in 06. He and Russell are in a dead statistical heat now, and Bill Russell’s campaign is getting tons of help from all over the eastern US. A lot of people are going to show up in the 12th district to vote, many of them for Russell, and those voters are going to vote McCain. Blackfive, Vets for Freedom, and I forget who else are all sending lots of people to the last Russell rally today.
I’m working the polls Tuesday. This is a heavily Republican voting district. If there’s a heavy turnout, that means a heavy GOP turnout. If there isn’t, I’m going to be very anxious.
McLaughlin (Group) just noted 75 million Low Information Voters, which I think is too few. Don’t watch tv news or read newspaper or talk about politics. No one followed up with a discussion of what motivates or informs these voters. or whether these are the undecideds and/or soft for Obama voters.
I still think it will be gas prices that inform LIVs.
I drove up to New Hampshire to buy cigarettes yesterday, through Northfield, MA. ex-hippie haven. More Obama signs than McCain signs, but at the NH border, first Bob Barr sign.
McCain is correct in going back to NH where they really hate higher taxes. More interesting is that veteran Nathan Bech is challenging longtime Dem incumbent John Olver for Congress in Western Mass. Lot of Nathan Bech signs.
Make it happen! Get out this video of Obama saying in Jan in SF that he plans to bankrupt the coal industry:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/11/02/hidden-audio-obama-tells-sf-chronicle-he-will-bankrupt-coal-industry
I read on campaign spot this morning that WAPO has McCain gaining on independents which was what showed up in the Friday poll yet they have Obama still holding a 9% lead because they are counting on more Republicanx voting for Obama then Dems voting for McCain…My guess is they are trying to depress voters who do not want Obama ….trying to make them think there is no use voting…its a done deal….but there is still a lot of undecideds and many folks including Dick Morris think these will break for McCain
I tell my family, remember in 2004, the afternoon of the election, “President Kerry” was winning by 10-12 points after he “surged” the weekend prior to election day. I heard Alan Colmes say this past Friday night, it doesn’t matter what Zogby says, Obama has enough electoral votes to win. hmmm….Alan thinks the pollsters and the NYT award electoral votes,,,,I guess the media would like to declare Obama the winner without the electorate casting a vote.
Hopefully on Wednesday President Kerry and President Obama will be able to share a brandy and talk about how they almost won.,,
If the polls show the race that close in the battlegrounds McCain Palin can win, yes Obama has a better map, unless he loses Pennsylvania, Just as Florida could have been the Key for Gore in 2000, and Ohio could have been the winner for Kerry, Pennsylvania is the door to victory. Lose there and everything has to break our way, win there and we have a good, maybe great chance to win.
By the way, Just vote.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4onAQBWQ
You tube version of the anti coal bankruptcy message by Obama Clarice referred to above.
That will kill any chances in Penn and W Va and other mid west coal mining states.
If you watch the added video AJ points to and listen to the counter protest kids interviewing those people on the side walk, it does not take long to realize those protesters are likely paid campaign field staff from the Obama campaign.
They are too calm in asking their questions like doing field research and not emotionally involved like a independent counter protester would be.
Swing by the local campaign office and you will probably see them coming in and out during the day.
AJ, did you hear Chris Wallace and Karl Rove on Chris’ show this morning? I couldn’t believe my ears! They were both acting like it is all over. Unbelievable!
Chris said that McCain had not been ahead in ANY poll in October, not even within the margin of error. That is false! And Karl said nothing. And Karl talked about how McCain was behind vs. ’04 in early balloting and how Rick Davis was spinning! This is a turf war going on, imho, because I just don’t see how Karl could be saying what he said.
What is going on?
Ivehadit,
Did not catch it this morning, but heard some of the ‘its all over’ crap. Which actually hurts Obama. McCain-Palin supporters will be pissed off they did not get to voter before it the race was declared (nobody wants democracy by pollsters) and the Obamabots will be complacent.
clarice, you beat me to it.
This talk about making new power plants go bankrupt will make the entire coal industry go broke and destroy the economy with it.
Here it is again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4onAQBWQ
Here’s another interesting link from No Quarter, some supposedly insider scoop from an Obama defector (not verified and could be fake, but a lot of this rings true — interesting reading):
http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/10/31/former-hillary-staffer-spills-the-beans/#more-5818
Well, I am just hoping that there is a quiet, massive “below the radar” effort going on by EVERYONE in the US to defeat these hardcore, socialist threats to our national security.
So maybe they are in for a very big surprise on Tuesday? I do hope so.
Someone PLEASE, PLEASE e-mail the “bankrupting coal†audio info to the follwoing e-mail addresses — sgates@cleancoalusa.org; ccoffey@cleancoalusa.org; larnold@cleancoalusa.org; cwest@cleancoalusa.org; bjones@cleancoalusa.org — I can’t do it. Splain later.
Here’s a quick note to copy if you want:
———————————————
VERY IMPORTANT:
http://tinyurl.com/68oyz4
Transcript:
Sen. Obama:
“Let me sort of describe my overall policy.
What I’ve said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else’s out there.
I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.
So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.â€
My cousin, Terry, in Ohio, voted Republican all of her life. Now, she says she’s voting for Obama.
I don’t like it. But I can’t deny what I’m seeing from her, her family, and her friends.
I think McCain can’t hold on to Ohio, and Florida and Virginia and North Carolina. If he loses one, it’s over.
It’s sad. But it’s true. I don’t see that many people changing their minds at this point to make a difference.
Conservatives should be realists, not liberal “children” staring at the pretty rainbow.