Nov 02 2008
Is McCain heading towards a landslide? Is Obama going to lose New Jersey and California?
- New Jersey: McCain leads 48 to 43, with 7% undecided.
- Michigan: McCain leads 44 to 42, with 10% undecided.
- California: Obama leads 44 to 43, with 9/% undecided, 3% for Barr.
- Pennsylvania: McCain leads 55 to 33, with 10% undecided. In Pennsylvania Obama only leads among Democrats by 47 to 37, with 14% undecided.
One thing that has bothered me in many of the polls is the hidden allocation of leaners. This is totally up to the polling company to determine. For example, look at the Hotline poll for today which shows a reversal for Obama of 2% since yesterday, especially this nugget:
Based on an analysis of responses to questions on candidates’ images, partisan identification and demographics, “Refused” responses in the head-to-head question were assigned either to Obama, McCain or Undecided.
Based on other data this pollster selected who the Â people being interviewed would vote for? Right. If you look at those alleged GOP internal numbers above they don’t try to allocate leaning or undecided voters. If the pollsters are bumping up Obama’s firm numbers with fuzzy ones then you can get a reversal of the lead.
Do I believe this? It is possible – depending on how the pollsters fill out their turnout models and allocate leaners. It would be amazing if true. So I am skeptical at this moment, and there is no way I would put my hopes in this. But someone’s poll numbers are way out of whack.