Nov 04 2008
My “Prediction” For Today! – Updated
Get Out And Vote!
Update: When you read the link below (here again) I want folks to notice how Obama and the liberal dems actually increased the conservative intensity across many instances of insulting and demeaning the very voters they needed to sit home, not ‘walk across broken glass’ to vote:
In 2008, there are more phenomenons of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ than I have ever seen…
-Conservatives believe the media has been outrageously fawning over Obama and doing everything it can to protect him. This has enraged them even more than in 2004.
-Obama’s comment of people in rural areas were nothing more than ‘bitter clingers’ who cling to guns and religion have caused lingering outrage at him. This comment, alone, is one reason why Pennslyvania turned on him.
-The Bail-Out Bill enraged many and was when conservatives finally abandoned Bush. But Bush is not on the ticket anymore so that doesn’t matter. Rather, the enragement is aimed at Pelosi and Reid, the leaders of the House and Senate.
-Media treatment of Sarah Palin generated many ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ and even overlapped to the Hillary Clinton supporters.
-Joe the Plumber. At first, Joe the Plumber recieved much amusement and delight of the electorate since it was funny to watch the presidential candidates refer to some citizen and even talk directly to ‘him’ on the camera. After the debate, naturally the press put up photos of the ‘conversation’ between Joe and Obama in amusement as well (amusement in how this citizen somehow ended up as the topic in the third debate). Then, Obama and Biden mocked joe the Plumber and said plumbers could never earn $250,000, and this followed with news came out about Joe’s salary, his marriage, his driver’s license, his taxes, his lack of a plumber’s license, and him ultimately being fired by the plumbing union. This enraged people like I have never seen before. Joe the Plumber became the ‘John Galt’ icon. I heard stories of visible Obama supporters being rattled by this such as SoCal voters peeling off their bumper stickers and uprooting their Obama signs.
…
At one McCain rally, that man who screamed, “I’M ANGRY! I’M REALLY ANGRY!!!” is a microcosm of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’. It is the reason why, now, the blood red Utah has people rushing to the early voting polls. In Texas, an army of pick-up trucks have descended upon the polls. Much of the interest in early voting, which is exceeding 2004 levels, is being mistaken as enthused support for Obama. But it is likely that it is ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ which exist in both Democrat and Republican parties. This white hot intensity of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ has not, and cannot, be measured with standard measures (how can a poll detect passion? It cannot).
This guy is the next Karl Rove … if he wants to be.
Update: A very optimistic assessment for McCain-Palin:
In my second post about the election, I told you to keep an eye on Iowa for if Obama comes back here, a state he should have locked at this time, he is toast. Well, Obama is back in Iowa which means he is toast. If it is competitive in Iowa (it was very competitive in 2004), that means that McCain is running as well as Bush or better and has FL, CO, IN, NC, OH, NH, and VA all comfortable. McCain going to Maine suggests Obama is performing worse than Kerry or, rather, Obama’s support is ’soft’ among Democrats.
I saw an interesting bit of simple math to explain the power of Democrat (PUMA) defections. Assume 10 Reps and 10 dems are locked in a tight battle (50-50%). Then all of a sudden 2 dems jump ship to the GOP side to make the sides 12-8, or 60%-40%. The point being is defections hurt more than adding or subtracting independents. PUMAs are the key, and if they turned out in large numbers Obama could really be toast.
Major Update: McCain’s internal polls show massive move in the battleground states. They see a long night but a win. No need to put this out if they felt they were losing IMHO.
I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win.
Update: I wonder what would happen if the highly democrat-leaning exit polls showed a serious problem for Obama?? Just thinking out loud folks! Turnout seems to be very heavy, which should require large numbers left and right to achieve, nulling any supposed Obama edge in intensity and turnout. Would the exit polls be the first glimpse of this? I would love to hear some hint of what they are showing (as you all would I suspect).
Update: Well we now know there was no Democrat turnout edge in CO’s early voting. Seems the anti Obama forces were able to neutralize it there with 50% of the registered voters participating. Looks like Obama might have fallen flat there.
Update: Watch PA and VA today. If turnout is as high as it sounds to be then McCain-Palin could be in the process of a major upset. Check out this anecdotal evidence from PA. No solid news yet from Virginia, will update when it comes in.
Update: Wow, could this be the surprise poll of the year? GWU/Battleground has the race under 2% when they allocate undecideds (this is a two page PDF, make sure to scroll the second page)!
Update: Hey folks, if you go out and vote give us all a little report on your area and the turnout. You are the eyes of the country right now. I am heading out to vote soon too, so if your comment gets held up be patient – will release it as soon as I get back.
Update: It’s official, turnout is massive and probably historic. What this means is those expectations of a huge Dem edge in turnout may be the fantasy many of us said it was. Will the liberals be in shock tonight? If The Surge of McCain-Palin supporters show up I believe are out there, there will be a totally new meaning on the left for the phrase “shock and awe”.
Update: Folks, keep watching the top of thius post throughout the day, it will cover any important updates (minus the first at the bottom with the video). OK, Obi-wan Kenobi speaks and says the Force may be with us! That being the force of equal or greater numbers and intensity.
Update: Excellent news from VA. High turnout will neutralize any Dem edge. I am feeling confident this state is in McCain’s camp. Plus other great news from across the nation! - end update
I have no idea how tomorrow will turn out. The state polls showed a tightening race, but national polls drifted back towards Obama after tightening late last week. Voter turnout has been huge, but the new voters Obama needs are not showing up. And then there is this tidbit about polls and how Democrats and Conservatives respond.
The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
What goes for exit polls goes double for normal polls. I think there is a possibly an equal, or maybe greater, wave of McCain-Palin supporters as compared to Obama’s support that the polls are simply not seeing because these voters are running silent. I think the wrong direction vote is aimed at the entire Political Industrial Complex – of which pollsters and the news media are a part. And there are many Americans who would never engage with these groups. For example:
1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,” “homophobe,” “single-issue-voter,” “warmonger,” or “against change,” even if the voter is none of these.
2) Similarly, pollsters have reported higher than usual numbers of undecided voters or voters still capable of changing their minds. People know Senator McCain. Do they know Senator Obama well enough to break for him this late in the game?
3) Most importantly, in 2004, pollsters were caught by surprise by the amount of voters who left the polls saying “social issues” were most influential in determining their vote. In 2008, the media has been mostly silent on these causes, focusing instead on the economy and Iraq. This focus ignores an important reality. The “Value Voters” block of mostly Evangelicals and a good percentage of conservative Catholics and others, may indeed be wrapped up in these urgent headlines, but there is no convincing data to suggest they have inverted their voting priorities, turning away from abortion, traditional marriage, limited government, etc. If Senator Kerry’s policy proposals were enough to get this voting block to the booth, Senator Obama’s policies should bring them out in droves.
So here goes my hesitant prediction which I cannot back up and wouldn’t bet a nickel over.
If I am right I see McCain keeping FL, NC, VA, OH, IN, NV, and MO Red. WV, SD, MT AR and AZ also stay red.
The big surprise is PA goes red this year (it was within 2% in 2004). This would give McCain a 286-252 win in the Electoral College. I think it is even possible McCain picks up MN or CO – which could raise the McCain-Palin victory to 305-233 (plus maybe one in Maine). This is the range I hope to see McCain win by tomorrow.
I have no clue if it will turn out that way. But if everyone who supports McCain-Palin, or opposes Obama, gets out and votes, then they can prove me right!
Update: Some very optimistic and positive news from McCain camp (H/T Gateway Pundit)
Get Out And Vote!
76 Responses to “My “Prediction” For Today! – Updated”
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Prof. Strata: Your prediction to God’s ear. All my best to the Strata crew back there. JG
My moderate, very reasonable, very humble “prediction”:
Obama 338 – McCain 200
Senate 57 – 43
“It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,” “homophobe,” “single-issue-voter,” “warmonger,” or “against change…”
so understandable… thanks for putting that in there…
Nighty night republicans…
Good luck tomorrow…
I think you meant MO, not CO, at the end of your first list of states.
But otherwise — I think you’re right.
Pennsylvania is going to be the deciding state, this year. And I have a really good feeling about it, despite the anticipated 105% turnout in Philly.
Marston Chronicles agrees with AJ,
Texas Darlin carries the link to a statistician expert in poll analysis:
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
THE MCCAIN-PALIN LANDSLIDE
Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title. I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.
The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?
That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.
UPDATE: I have posted an updated article predicting an 81 electoral vote landslide for McCain-Palin called McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. Click on the link to go there.
SNIP – but go there and he gives a thorough account. This is a very
small snippet of a long and interesting article. It was also up briefly at RCP.
I think a large percentage of conservatives are simply hanging up or not answering as soon as they realize its a poll on the line. I think out of all the times I was called (at least 30) I only responded once.
I’ve been very angry this election at the liberals, especially at one of my senators, Harry Reid, who I even voted for in 2004. I wasn’t paying all that much attention that election and I was swayed by his seniority and the Las Vegas Review Journal. They SAID! he was a conservative Democrat!
Oh, and BIB ESAD!
We shall see, just vote. If virgina is real close or a McCain win, you know somethings up
Clintsf-105% turnout? I can’t tell whether to laugh or get angry at the implications.
Some of Obama’s partisans, it seems, advocate “direct action” if A.J.’s prediction should come true:
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/36993
——
A McCain “Win” Will Be Theft, Resistance Is Planned
If your television declares John McCain the president elect on the evening of November 4th, your television will be lying. You should immediately pick up your pre-packed bags and head straight to the White House in Washington, D.C., which we will surround and shut down until this attempt at a third illegitimate presidency is reversed…We should be prepared already to immediately travel to Washington, D.C., head straight for the White House, occupy Lafayette Square Park, the Ellipse, and surrounding streets, block entrances, and shut the place down until Obama is recognized as the president elect or we are guaranteed a credible election with universal registration and hand-counted paper ballots.
—–
etc., etc.
Trouble now or trouble later would seem to be a very safe prediction, and we may yet find ourselves looking back to “the good old days” of Florida 2000.
I hope bib is wrong. He has been wrong about most things, so maybe that will hold.
I think Obama is a fraud and a liar and a charlatan, and I am hoping enough Americans see that to make a difference.
Why wouldn’t McCain supporters talk about how they feel? The other day someone ask me who I was voting for, I told her and she was in my face screaming at me. She wants that $300 Obama is sending poor people by God. As if she were poor.
It is just like the late breaking news that Palin was cleared in the Troopergate nonsense. Sure, it was bs, but it served its purpose.
I do not know who will win. I make no predictions, but I can honestly say that the majority of people I know not only are not voting for Obama, but they detest him. If he wins, he will be stuck with an incompetent Congress, a lot of promises he can not keep, and a country in which half the population does not like him, not even a little bit.
bib:
The Attorney General here in Indiana is bringing criminal racketeering charges against ACORN for registering nonexistent people in Indianapolis and Gary. Obama is knee deep in all that. If he wins, it will be because he broke campaign finance laws, he broke voter registration laws, he lied about his past associations and he lied about what he intends to do as President. The butt kissing and fawning press helped. After all it was the foreign press that told us about the illegal alien aunt. The American press was too busy puckering up.
So if Obama wins, I will feel like he stole the election.
How does all of these dead newly registered democratic voters affect the Poll numbers? From my previous post below.
Hi AJ,
I heard someone call into the Roger Hedgecock show today saying that the reason the polls are so far off is due to the ACORN voter registrations. He says that by increasing the number of new voters that are registered Democrat, this changes the polling numbers in their favor to make it look as if they are in the lead. Can you explain if this is true and exactly how it would work in the Dems favor regarding the poll numbers??
Thanks,
SBD
So who is this guy Obama?
http://israelinsider.ning.com/profiles/blogs/is-obama-the-secret-son-of
It’s worth your time to go and read it.
I promise.
Terrye..I watched how long it took for the NW corner of Ind. to report in the primaries.
It is too close a commute to Chicago and there was not justifiable reason for them to report so many hours after the rest of the state was finished.
I hope that they have a good number of election monitors in that area.
First official results in from Dixville Notch NH
Obama 15
McCain 6
Here is hoping for a McCain win!
Texas is going to go deep red! Yay!
Archtop reporting for duty, sir!
I’ve carried out my civic responsibility at my local polling location and have cast my vote for McCain-Palin. Here’s hoping NH turns red this year…I’m sure MY vote will be the one puts McCain-Palin over the top :^)
Clintsf – yes I did! That’s what I get for 1:30 AM postings.
Well my part is done.
I stood in line, in the rain, for one hour and fifteen minutes.
I cast my ballot in less than 2 minutes once the “red tape” was done.
I’ve been voting in the same place for 12 years and have never waited more than 20 minutes to vote.
BGG,
Hate to ask (probably a dumb question), which state?
AJStrata
Excellent Archtop, how were the lines?
AJStrata
Hi AJ,
The line was pretty long at 7:45 AM (poll opened at 8 AM) – probably about 100 people. It didn’t take me too long to get in to vote after 8 AM (about 15 – 20 min) as I had gotten there at 7:30. I’m sure the lines will be long all day long – and I live in a relatively small town.
I voted early (exactly one week ago) in FL, and the polling place was in a heavily Cuban district. 45 minutes to vote, with most of my fellow voters (I’d guesstimate 75% of them) being Cuban and over 50 years of age.
Today I drove by one polling place (Coral Gables, a suburb of Miami) and there were lines out the door as of 8:45am. I’ll report anything else I see.
I voted at 7:15 this am in my polling place at a Presbyterian Church in Lynchburg, Va. I have voted there in roughly six previous elections. My precinct votes probably 65 to 70% Republican, so big turnout is good. I would say the turnout is at least triple that of previous years. The Obama people had a tent manned by two individuals. I arrived simultaneously with six or seven other cars. We parked, and not one of us would make eye contact with these idiots. i stayed after I voted for a while, just to see if anyone would talk to them, and no one, NO ONE did.
I sense some passion, some determination on the part of those who voted. Fingers crossed.
Western Iowa, polls open at 7. . My newly registered son and I there at 7:05 Waited in a line for 20 minutes and was # 40.
The voter folks said more machines were on their way.
I have never waited, much less out the door, I was #40 and this is a very conservative part of a very close state.
I think we will get our first Foreign Born Marxist President.
Government Schools and the Media sure are a bad combination.
I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.
Boortz is depressed today:
Thanks, Republicans. This one belongs to you. The Republican Party completely abandoned its principles after the voter revolution of 1994. The GOP became the party of big spending and big government. Beltway Republicans became drunk on power and completely forgot why they were there. They gave us no real reason to go to the polls and vote for them save for that filibuster-proof Senate scare and the fear of what the election of a Marxist will mean to our freedoms.
Thanks, George Bush. Thanks for your spectacular lack of leadership on issues of spending and big government over the past two terms. You get all the credit in the world for keeping America safe from another terrorist attack … but when a president signs a bill he thinks is unconstitutional (McCain-Feingold) just because he thinks the Supreme Court will straighten things out; and when a president introduces grand new entitlement programs (Medicare drug benefits) and fails to veto even one pork-laden spending bill … well, the result is an uninspired electorate and … Barack Obama.
Thanks, Government Schools. Back to that woman at the Obama rally: Does she really believe that once Obama is elected she won’t have to worry about putting gas in her car or paying her mortgage? Yup, she probably does. Then we have those Harlem voters who think that Barack Obama did a fine job in selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate. This election, more than any I can remember, illustrates why Democrats are so determined to preserve our system of government education. American voters are, for the most part, spectacularly uninformed about the issues and the candidates they are voting for. Did I say “uninformed?” I meant to say ignorant. For the most part these people casting ballots today could not name their two U.S. Senators and their Congressman if their flat-screens and cell phones depended on it. Things are only going to get worse. Get ready for an all-out war on school choice .. and that includes the home schooling option. The era of the teacher’s unions is upon us.
And thanks Voters. This is an election that has been driven by wealth envy and celebrity worship. I really don’t see any of this changing anytime soon … so, whatchagonnado?
Depressed, but correct on all.
Boortz is why the GOP went into the rut – he is one of those purists.
If Boortz is bummed it must mean McCain is about take over the Rep brand.
AJ,
I live in GA.
I voted at 10:00 AM (took off work) because that is the dead time for my voting site (which I have used since 1992). Usually nobody is there, the place was full.
But we have an efficient process that let’s folks with our real last name get into the fastlane. Most people in line were going to be there for about 20-30 minutes. Happens my part of the alphabet had no line so it took me 5 minutes.
But usually the place is dead this time of day – and I mean I am one of 4 people in line. Today there were 20-30 people.
If the Conservatives keep coming out like this Obama will not win!
Voted this morning about 8am in Franklin County Columbus Ohio, waited about 1 hour to vote. When I came out the line was much shorter maybe 10 or 15 minutes wait. I am going back at midday just to see how long the wait is.
I got to the polls in Southern Maryland at 0725. Voted at 0805. Turnout seemed heavy…but I can’t be certain, as I voted earlier than I normally do (my habit has been to slip out for an early lunch and vote then).
It won’t matter in Maryland, but this area is pretty conservative.
Why are you excited about the GWU/Battleground poll? Its track record has been very accurate, and it has McC losing! Did I miss something here?
Btw, I’m still going to vote NO MATTER WHAT.
…
I was voter #176 here in Lebanon, PA. The place was packed, lots of folks in camos and hunting hats, in other words, bitter people clinging to their guns and religion, with antipathy toward those who aren’t like them. I also got a report from my wife, who took her grandma to the polls. That location was also packed. She was #353. So based on these experiences and local radio reports, it looks like a huge turnout in south-central PA, which is great news for McCain/Palin.
Kitty,
Less than 2% is a statistical tie – that is not losing. Because of the math Obama is NOT winning.
I voted in KC MO this am at 7:00, polls opened at 6:00. I vote in a heavily democratic district (Cleaver is my Rep), this area racially and ethnically mixed (AA, Hispanic and Asian) and I pulled up to the entrance, parked and went right in and voted. Total time about 8 minutes, no line, no waiting and probably 4 booths open.
As I said in another thread I voted 2 weeks ago, straight GOP ticket.
I voted in Greenwich, CT shortly after 6:00 am – we got to the polls about 5:50 and there were already lines out the door. It moved pretty quickly once they started voting at 6. Heavier turn out than I have seen here in the 20+ years we’ve lived here.
I don’t know what it means, though. This is traditionally a Republican town in a blue state, but new people moving in over the past decade have mostly been liberal Democrat lawyers, investment bankers, and financial services types. Chris Shays (RINO, but the only Republican congress critter in New England) is running dead even.
It’s been a funny election season here. People who I thought were pretty reliably liberal voting for McCain, people who’ve been lifelong Republicans voting for Obama (the elite effect IMHO – Obama’s one of them with his Punahoe, Columbia and Harvard education). The state will go blue of course, but maybe we’ll get a state Constitutional Convention.
this is priceless…somone from greenwich calling obama elitist…i guess foodstamps and scholarships are the new rolex and cartier. the level of delusion here is astounding.
“…what goes for exit polls goes double for normal polls…” where do you come up with this stuff?
rayabacus,
That is pretty stunning.
Checking in from Suburban PA.
I have never seen anything quite like this here in Bucks County.
People waiting an hour to an hour an a half in some locations.
Robo calls (both parties but more for McCain) are coming at the average of one every twenty minutes or so since 8am.
Just spoke with my daughter who resides in another suburban area and she waited almost 2 hours to vote.
Also spoke with someone from South Carolina this morning who told me she had never seen such a large turnout in her small town.
Fingers crossed that much of this overflow is for the GOP.
Oh, and thanks for helping keep our sanity Strata family!
I vote at the Coopers Plains Fire Dept. in Coopers Plains, NY — right up the road from me. There are 640 registered voters; I know because I asked. At 11:15 this morning I was #215 (I think), and I had to wait in line. There is no way you could commit voter fraud there because the ladies who man the polling place know everyone. They’ve been doing this for decades.
I asked them if they could leave early, since the voting was going at such a brisk pace.
“No, because So-in-so is out sick and So-in-so is out of town. And if all 640 registered voters are not signed in, we can’t leave early.”
I love country living
…
Just wanted to add that latest Russell internals show that Murtha and Russell are in a virtual tie.
If Russell can pull this one out of the fire then that also bodes well for McCain/Palin in the Western part of the state.
I contributed twice to Russell.
…
I just voted. They pulled an interesting “switcharoo” this year. The traditional polling place for my precinct, a middle school two blocks away, is today the polling place for two neighboring precincts. In order to vote, I had to travel to a high school in a neighboring precinct (whose voters are voting today in my precinct). I thought it interesting because my precinct includes a lot of older people. The polling place they sent us to has no nearby parking. You must park on the street and walk about a block and a half deep inside the campus of the high school to vote.
I have a feeling that many of the seniors are going to get lost or give up.
I drove past my polling place this morning while taking my daughter to work. I live in a very Red district in a very Red state! Folks, Republicans are turning out! There was over an hour wait, so I’m going back as soon as I finishing teaching my second class.
My daughter wants me to wait until after her Art class at 4:15, but I don’t want to be there for all the 5:00 people1
So, I’m going around 2:30. Don’t you dare sit this out. This election is about Turn Out. so, Turn out, Turn out, Turn out the vote for McCain/Palin!
I sincerely believe we can pull this out if we get to the poll and cast a ballot. If you know a service member that is home on leave and they didn’t cast a ballot, get them down to the polling place to cast a provisional ballot. I believe that over the past month I have been able to convince one person who was going to sit out the election to go to the polls today.
Part of that was due to articles and references linked to from this and other sites. Bloggers are playing a significant role in educating the public and it might not be just people directly visiting the site. Blogs have furnished a great wealth of information and people have been informing their friends and neighbors.
Whatever the outcome today, make sure you have your say. To me the choice is clear. I voted for the capitalist.
JMGAR, do you think they will be voting republican in CG? I used to live in the Grove…
Praying the Cubans bring in McCain for us! The, imho, communists MUST be defeated!
My wife and I voted absentee yesterday in Michigan, there was a steady stream of people coming into vote. My area use to be pretty red but a lot of the Reds are leaving the area because of the personnel cuts at the Big Three Automotives.
I got in line here in Lawrenceville, GA at 5:15a for a 7:00a poll opening. And, there were at least 30 people in front of me. Once open, though, the line went fairly briskly, and I was waiting for a booth at 7:30a. At 7:37a, I was at the car, votes casted.
I noticed at 7:00a, the line was around the corner of the building. When I left at 7:37, the line was an estimated 200+ people deep, with more arriving and getting in line.
An officer arrived just as I was leaving to do traffic control, but the crowd was pretty peaceful and friendly. People were parking all over, since there were not enough for a crowd this large. And traffic was getting bad, mixing voters with commuters on a busy road. I think the officer will need back-up!:)
Ivehadit,
Coral Gables is traditionally pretty 50-50. That said, I’ve noticed a sharp surge in McC-P lawn signs and the like in the last week or so.
Pennsylvania, Chester County. Tredyffrin Township
Precinct M-2. Huge early turnout. Largest I have
ever seen. Cannot tell party breakdown yet.
Reporting from Green Township, Oh (western suburb of Cincinnati).
At 11 am, 400 of 1150 people in my precinct had voted.
Green Township is very conservative. In 2004, my precinct voted 360 for Bush, 40 Kerry if that gives you any idea…..
Anyway, no lines, took 5 minutes to vote…
It was very busy when I voted this morning here in southern Indiana. The thing about the poll mentioned above is that while Obama has a lead, it is very small and it points to Obama winning the popular vote, but he might lose the electoral vote.
JMG, I had that feeling…
I wonder what my Jewish friends are doing in Miami….It’s just hard for me to believe that ANY of them would vote for the o…
What about those Black Panthers???
SHAME ON THE MEDIA FOR NOT REPORTING *THIS* group of o “friends”…
Hi AJ,
I voted Absentee on Friday here in San Diego. As I am sure you are aware, it hardly ever rains here in San Diego,but today being election day, it is pouring rain outside. I hope this doesn’t deter the “fair weather” San Diego citizens from voting, we have a proposition to ban gay marriage on the ballot today as well.
PS. Can someone try to answer my previous question above regarding ACORN and the polls??
SBD
SBD,
Can you repeat the question? I here San Diego saw enormous turnout, and it more conservative than LA and SF.
Hi AJ,
I don’t know about the large turnout just yet as it is only 11:00 A.M., but it is pouring rain which is very rare.
Here is the question:
I heard someone call into the Roger Hedgecock show today saying that the reason the polls are so far off is due to the ACORN voter registrations. He says that by increasing the number of new voters that are registered Democrat, this changes the polling numbers in their favor to make it look as if they are in the lead. Can you explain if this is true and exactly how it would work in the Dems favor regarding the poll numbers??
Thanks,
SBD
I voted Wed. in Palm Beach County. I waited 2 hours and there were a lot of elderly voters. Today my family voted and had no lines.
Just got a call (i.e. this is anecdotal) that, in the Kendall area of Miami, the voting wait times are in the 90-120 minute range.
SBD,
In those polls that use voter registration as the basis for party affiliation then, yes to a minor degree they would shift the numbers.
But the real sin is expecting 2-3 times the historic edge for the dems ever seen.
Sounds like this democracy thing is really taking off—-can only hope it lasts into the future with people getting informed and involved, regardless of the outcome what doesn’t kill us will make us stronger!!
No wait this AM before work in Northern NJ. Saw an even mix of McCain and Obama signs along the roadways but much fewer than previous years and again very few bumper stickers. A few winks passed between myself and other voters as we entered and exited.
Can only hope the Redskins loss last night fails to predict the winner (17 out of 17—-time to hit for average guys).
One question re ACORN: Does the registering of people in any way impact the districting/allocation of political favors? You might not get to vote but if these records are used for any other decisions, well you know the rest.
AJ
I just got back to the office. Yeah, I was pretty startled this AM too, as I was hearing radio reports of long lines at polling places on both sides of the state line. I don’t worry too much about KS as the only blue part is douglas county.
One co-worker waited for an hour this morning to vote, but that was in a somewhat upscale downtown precinct, another waited about 30 minutes in Lee’s Summit (red suburb) and the radio has a lot of anecdotal evidence of both…long lines and no lines.
The wifey just called. She just got out from voting at our precinct at 2:30p in Lawrenceville, GA. The lines were significantly shorter than this morning. She’s 8-1/2 months pregnant, and didn’t feel the need to use the handicap protocol.
But I predict long lines returning later as people leave work. Polls close here in GA at 7:00p.
Pray for us. Our red state turned pink in this last month.
I voted at 1:30 in Pittsburgh PA… I was able to walk right in and right up to a voting booth. I was #272 and the person who took my name told me that in previous years, they’re lucky if they get this many people by the time the polls close. On the other hand, my brother voted in a different part of the city and stood in line for 2 hours. So, I think that says a lot for the bigger turnout. Not sure if it’s good or bad though, because Pittsburgh seems to be very dense with Obama-supporters
Voted in Northern VA this morning. Was definitely more crowded than normal, but as AJStrata put it, we got lucky with the first letter of our last name. That line was definitely shorter. I went by a precinct nearby where I work around 2:30 and it seemed busy but not packed. There was no line out the door.
Kentucky is not a big battleground state to be sure, but turnout in Owensboro is big to say the very least. No comparison to 4 years ago as I see it. And the fear of a Marxist, America-hating president is widespread and very genuine.
dj…
so you are saying they are afraid of mccain, who wants the government buy up all the mortgages? marxist. what a joke. how do you guys make up this bunk?
Norm,
What in the world are you babbling on about? LOL!
I voted, now we wait.
Do you think 2 out of 10 dems with be Pumas AJ?
I am hoping!
Go McCain!
In the last Ohio poll Obama was losing 22% of Hillary voters, which is 1 in 10. 1 in 10 turns into 55-45% – which would be a blow out.
Can you comment on the real politics poll that has McCain down a little in OH?
2 in 10 would be great for McCain!
My only comment is McCain should take Ohio. Being down ‘2′ in a poll is mathematically equal to being a tie.
If turnout is as high as it looks, and the anti-Obama vote is as strong as it looks, I don’t see Obama winning.
The problem with RPC is it mixes polls that use historic trends and some wild polls out this year which assume Obama will create a dem egde 2-3 times what has ever been seen before.
This means the historic high mark of +4% in dem turnout produces a tie, then assuming +8-12% dem turnout gives Obama a 5-9% lead.
I don’t think anyone alive has seen that kind of edge. With the enormous turnout we see today, the GOP, Indies and Dems are coming out in huge numbers – which means dems could hope for a +4 at best (and I doubt that).
When you mix these shoddy polls with traditional polls and average them you get skewed averages. This is what RCP has done this year. They have not put a quality filter on the polls they use.
Thanks.
What are the odds of McCain getting an electoral from Maine, do you know?
Just heard that in one precinct in Alabama, the boxes were full…the optical scanner boxes were full!
I believe this has never happened before…
Norm,
Unless there is another DJ who commented I have no idea what you are talking about. I mentioned how many people I saw at the polls. Nothing about being scared of McCain, or Obama being a marxist. And there is no way to read that between the lines of what I wrote. Sit down before you hurt yourself.
excerpt:
Signs, including early exit polling, are looking decent for John McCain pulling off a surprise comeback win in Virginia. There’s not a lot of hard data at this point, but of the previously red states that the Obama campaign put a full court press on Virgina was the prime battleground. Going into today it was anywhere from Obama up 5% to a tossup, so a McCain win would be a dramatic reversal. Late breakers in Virgina are going to McCain and his success will depend on winning Loudoun and Prince William counties convincingly, which I think is a possibility.
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/11/04/will-virginia-turn-the-election-for-mccain.php
Some Cautiously Optimistic Takes From Sources on the Ground in Ohio
excerpt:
The sense among some GOP folks on the ground is that the turnout in heavily African-American precincts in some of Ohio’s cities has been light today, as of midafternoon, because of so many partaking of early voting. They see that as a reasonably good sign, that the Obama get-out-the-vote operation has hit its limit. These sources have been telling me for a few weeks now that they think McCain will overperform Bush’s 2004 performance and that the Republican candidate’s margin of victory will be greater than the two percent four years ago.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjA3NGMwYjI0NDU3MzEwZjg4YTNhMmUwNzUzNzZjMmM=
HillBuzz is fun to read today. This looks like rumor not backed up by any fact; but, still fun to read:
excerpt:
You can tell the Obama supporters on the street, though. They look really worried. Word’s spreading fast here that Obama’s going to lose — the big Reifenstahl-styled rally Obama planned for Grant Park has been downgraded, according to police we know. Instead of one million people coming out to hear his concession speech tonight, the city is now expecting only “tens of thousands”. The world’s biggest celebrity doesn’t seem to be drawing the crowd he hoped.
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/11/04/word-in-chicago-is-spreading-obama-loss-is-expected-grant-park-rally-downgraded-to-tens-of-thousands-instead-of-the-million-obama-promised/
OBAMEDIA ALERT: Minnesota “Significantly Closer” than Polls Predicted …Update: Iowa Miracle? …Update: PUMA’s May Flip Ohio!!
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/11/obamedia-alert-minnesota-significantly.html
OBAMEDIA ALERT: Minnesota “Significantly Closer” than Polls Predicted …Update: Iowa Miracle? …Update: PUMA’s May Flip Ohio!!
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/11/obamedia-alert-minnesota-significantly.html