Nov 04 2008

My “Prediction” For Today! – Updated

Published by at 9:25 am under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

 

Get Out And Vote!

Update: When you read the link below (here again) I want folks to notice how Obama and the liberal dems actually increased the conservative intensity across many instances of insulting and demeaning the very voters they needed to sit home, not ‘walk across broken glass’ to vote:

In 2008, there are more phenomenons of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ than I have ever seen…

-Conservatives believe the media has been outrageously fawning over Obama and doing everything it can to protect him. This has enraged them even more than in 2004.

-Obama’s comment of people in rural areas were nothing more than ‘bitter clingers’ who cling to guns and religion have caused lingering outrage at him. This comment, alone, is one reason why Pennslyvania turned on him.

-The Bail-Out Bill enraged many and was when conservatives finally abandoned Bush. But Bush is not on the ticket anymore so that doesn’t matter. Rather, the enragement is aimed at Pelosi and Reid, the leaders of the House and Senate.

-Media treatment of Sarah Palin generated many ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ and even overlapped to the Hillary Clinton supporters.

-Joe the Plumber. At first, Joe the Plumber recieved much amusement and delight of the electorate since it was funny to watch the presidential candidates refer to some citizen and even talk directly to ‘him’ on the camera. After the debate, naturally the press put up photos of the ‘conversation’ between Joe and Obama in amusement as well (amusement in how this citizen somehow ended up as the topic in the third debate). Then, Obama and Biden mocked joe the Plumber and said plumbers could never earn $250,000, and this followed with news came out about Joe’s salary, his marriage, his driver’s license, his taxes, his lack of a plumber’s license, and him ultimately being fired by the plumbing union. This enraged people like I have never seen before. Joe the Plumber became the ‘John Galt’ icon. I heard stories of visible Obama supporters being rattled by this such as SoCal voters peeling off their bumper stickers and uprooting their Obama signs.

At one McCain rally, that man who screamed, “I’M ANGRY! I’M REALLY ANGRY!!!” is a microcosm of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’. It is the reason why, now, the blood red Utah has people rushing to the early voting polls. In Texas, an army of pick-up trucks have descended upon the polls. Much of the interest in early voting, which is exceeding 2004 levels, is being mistaken as enthused support for Obama. But it is likely that it is ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ which exist in both Democrat and Republican parties. This white hot intensity of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ has not, and cannot, be measured with standard measures (how can a poll detect passion? It cannot).

This guy is the next Karl Rove … if he wants to be.

Update: A very optimistic assessment for McCain-Palin:

In my second post about the election, I told you to keep an eye on Iowa for if Obama comes back here, a state he should have locked at this time, he is toast. Well, Obama is back in Iowa which means he is toast. If it is competitive in Iowa (it was very competitive in 2004), that means that McCain is running as well as Bush or better and has FL, CO, IN, NC, OH, NH, and VA all comfortable. McCain going to Maine suggests Obama is performing worse than Kerry or, rather, Obama’s support is ’soft’ among Democrats.

I saw an interesting bit of simple math to explain the power of Democrat (PUMA) defections. Assume 10 Reps and 10 dems are locked in a tight battle (50-50%). Then all of a sudden 2 dems jump ship to the GOP side to make the sides 12-8, or 60%-40%. The point being is defections hurt more than adding or subtracting independents. PUMAs are the key, and if they turned out in large numbers Obama could really be toast.

Major Update: McCain’s internal polls show massive move in the battleground states. They see a long night but a win. No need to put this out if they felt they were losing IMHO.

I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win.

Update: I wonder what would happen if the highly democrat-leaning exit polls showed a serious problem for Obama??  Just thinking out loud folks! Turnout seems to be very heavy, which should require large numbers left and right to achieve, nulling any supposed Obama edge in intensity and turnout. Would the exit polls be the first glimpse of this? I would love to hear some hint of what they are showing (as you all would I suspect).

Update: Well we now know there was no Democrat turnout edge in CO’s early voting. Seems the anti Obama forces were able to neutralize it there with 50% of the registered voters participating. Looks like Obama might have fallen flat there.

Update: Watch PA and VA today. If turnout is as high as it sounds to be then McCain-Palin could be in the process of a major upset. Check out this anecdotal evidence from PA. No solid news yet from Virginia, will update when it comes in.

Update: Wow, could this be the surprise poll of the year? GWU/Battleground has the race under 2% when they allocate undecideds (this is a two page PDF, make sure to scroll the second page)!

Update: Hey folks, if you go out and vote give us all a little report on your area and the turnout. You are the eyes of the country right now. I am heading out to vote soon too, so if your comment gets held up be patient – will release it as soon as I get back.

Update: It’s official, turnout is massive and probably historic. What this means is those expectations of a huge Dem edge in turnout may be the fantasy many of us said it was. Will the liberals be in shock tonight? If The Surge of McCain-Palin supporters show up I believe are out there, there will be a totally new meaning on the left for the phrase “shock and awe”. 

Update: Folks, keep watching the top of thius post throughout the day, it will cover any important updates (minus the first at the bottom with the video). OK, Obi-wan Kenobi speaks and says the Force may be with us! That being the force of equal or greater numbers and intensity.

Update: Excellent news from VA. High turnout will neutralize any Dem edge. I am feeling confident this state is in McCain’s camp. Plus other great news from across the nation! - end update

I have no idea how tomorrow will turn out. The state polls showed a tightening race, but national polls drifted back towards Obama after tightening late last week. Voter turnout has been huge, but the new voters Obama needs are not showing up. And then there is this tidbit about polls and how Democrats and Conservatives respond.

The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.

What goes for exit polls goes double for normal polls. I think there is a possibly an equal, or maybe greater, wave of McCain-Palin supporters as compared to Obama’s support that the polls are simply not seeing because these voters are running silent. I think the wrong direction vote is aimed at the entire Political Industrial Complex – of which pollsters and the news media are a part. And there are many Americans who would never engage with these groups. For example:

1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,” “homophobe,” “single-issue-voter,” “warmonger,” or “against change,” even if the voter is none of these.

2) Similarly, pollsters have reported higher than usual numbers of undecided voters or voters still capable of changing their minds. People know Senator McCain. Do they know Senator Obama well enough to break for him this late in the game?

3) Most importantly, in 2004, pollsters were caught by surprise by the amount of voters who left the polls saying “social issues” were most influential in determining their vote. In 2008, the media has been mostly silent on these causes, focusing instead on the economy and Iraq. This focus ignores an important reality. The “Value Voters” block of mostly Evangelicals and a good percentage of conservative Catholics and others, may indeed be wrapped up in these urgent headlines, but there is no convincing data to suggest they have inverted their voting priorities, turning away from abortion, traditional marriage, limited government, etc. If Senator Kerry’s policy proposals were enough to get this voting block to the booth, Senator Obama’s policies should bring them out in droves.

So here goes my hesitant prediction which I cannot back up and wouldn’t bet a nickel over.

If I am right I see McCain keeping FL, NC, VA, OH, IN, NV, and MO Red. WV, SD, MT AR and AZ also stay red.

The big surprise is PA goes red this year (it was within 2% in 2004). This would give McCain a 286-252 win in the Electoral College. I think it is even possible McCain picks up MN or CO – which could raise the McCain-Palin victory to 305-233 (plus maybe one in Maine). This is the range I hope to see McCain win by tomorrow.

I have no clue if it will turn out that way. But if everyone who supports McCain-Palin, or opposes Obama, gets out and votes, then they can prove me right!

Update: Some very optimistic and positive news from McCain camp (H/T Gateway Pundit)


 

Get Out And Vote!

 

76 responses so far

76 Responses to “My “Prediction” For Today! – Updated”

  1. Phil-351 says:

    The wifey just called. She just got out from voting at our precinct at 2:30p in Lawrenceville, GA. The lines were significantly shorter than this morning. She’s 8-1/2 months pregnant, and didn’t feel the need to use the handicap protocol.

    But I predict long lines returning later as people leave work. Polls close here in GA at 7:00p.

    Pray for us. Our red state turned pink in this last month.

  2. swimbikerun says:

    I voted at 1:30 in Pittsburgh PA… I was able to walk right in and right up to a voting booth. I was #272 and the person who took my name told me that in previous years, they’re lucky if they get this many people by the time the polls close. On the other hand, my brother voted in a different part of the city and stood in line for 2 hours. So, I think that says a lot for the bigger turnout. Not sure if it’s good or bad though, because Pittsburgh seems to be very dense with Obama-supporters :(

  3. DJStrata says:

    Voted in Northern VA this morning. Was definitely more crowded than normal, but as AJStrata put it, we got lucky with the first letter of our last name. That line was definitely shorter. I went by a precinct nearby where I work around 2:30 and it seemed busy but not packed. There was no line out the door.

  4. OLDPUPPYMAX says:

    Kentucky is not a big battleground state to be sure, but turnout in Owensboro is big to say the very least. No comparison to 4 years ago as I see it. And the fear of a Marxist, America-hating president is widespread and very genuine.

  5. norm says:

    dj…
    so you are saying they are afraid of mccain, who wants the government buy up all the mortgages? marxist. what a joke. how do you guys make up this bunk?

  6. AJStrata says:

    Norm,

    What in the world are you babbling on about? LOL!

  7. robert c verdi says:

    I voted, now we wait.

  8. Linda78 says:

    Do you think 2 out of 10 dems with be Pumas AJ?
    I am hoping!
    Go McCain!

  9. AJStrata says:

    In the last Ohio poll Obama was losing 22% of Hillary voters, which is 1 in 10. 1 in 10 turns into 55-45% – which would be a blow out.

  10. Linda78 says:

    Can you comment on the real politics poll that has McCain down a little in OH?
    2 in 10 would be great for McCain!

  11. AJStrata says:

    My only comment is McCain should take Ohio. Being down ‘2’ in a poll is mathematically equal to being a tie.

    If turnout is as high as it looks, and the anti-Obama vote is as strong as it looks, I don’t see Obama winning.

    The problem with RPC is it mixes polls that use historic trends and some wild polls out this year which assume Obama will create a dem egde 2-3 times what has ever been seen before.

    This means the historic high mark of +4% in dem turnout produces a tie, then assuming +8-12% dem turnout gives Obama a 5-9% lead.

    I don’t think anyone alive has seen that kind of edge. With the enormous turnout we see today, the GOP, Indies and Dems are coming out in huge numbers – which means dems could hope for a +4 at best (and I doubt that).

    When you mix these shoddy polls with traditional polls and average them you get skewed averages. This is what RCP has done this year. They have not put a quality filter on the polls they use.

  12. Linda78 says:

    Thanks.
    What are the odds of McCain getting an electoral from Maine, do you know?

  13. ivehadit says:

    Just heard that in one precinct in Alabama, the boxes were full…the optical scanner boxes were full!
    I believe this has never happened before…

  14. DJStrata says:

    Norm,

    Unless there is another DJ who commented I have no idea what you are talking about. I mentioned how many people I saw at the polls. Nothing about being scared of McCain, or Obama being a marxist. And there is no way to read that between the lines of what I wrote. Sit down before you hurt yourself.

  15. Frogg says:

    excerpt:

    Signs, including early exit polling, are looking decent for John McCain pulling off a surprise comeback win in Virginia. There’s not a lot of hard data at this point, but of the previously red states that the Obama campaign put a full court press on Virgina was the prime battleground. Going into today it was anywhere from Obama up 5% to a tossup, so a McCain win would be a dramatic reversal. Late breakers in Virgina are going to McCain and his success will depend on winning Loudoun and Prince William counties convincingly, which I think is a possibility.

    http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/11/04/will-virginia-turn-the-election-for-mccain.php

  16. Frogg says:

    Some Cautiously Optimistic Takes From Sources on the Ground in Ohio

    excerpt:

    The sense among some GOP folks on the ground is that the turnout in heavily African-American precincts in some of Ohio’s cities has been light today, as of midafternoon, because of so many partaking of early voting. They see that as a reasonably good sign, that the Obama get-out-the-vote operation has hit its limit. These sources have been telling me for a few weeks now that they think McCain will overperform Bush’s 2004 performance and that the Republican candidate’s margin of victory will be greater than the two percent four years ago.

    http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjA3NGMwYjI0NDU3MzEwZjg4YTNhMmUwNzUzNzZjMmM=

  17. Frogg says:

    HillBuzz is fun to read today. This looks like rumor not backed up by any fact; but, still fun to read:

    excerpt:

    You can tell the Obama supporters on the street, though. They look really worried. Word’s spreading fast here that Obama’s going to lose — the big Reifenstahl-styled rally Obama planned for Grant Park has been downgraded, according to police we know. Instead of one million people coming out to hear his concession speech tonight, the city is now expecting only “tens of thousands”. The world’s biggest celebrity doesn’t seem to be drawing the crowd he hoped.

    http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/11/04/word-in-chicago-is-spreading-obama-loss-is-expected-grant-park-rally-downgraded-to-tens-of-thousands-instead-of-the-million-obama-promised/

  18. Frogg says:

    OBAMEDIA ALERT: Minnesota “Significantly Closer” than Polls Predicted …Update: Iowa Miracle? …Update: PUMA’s May Flip Ohio!!

    http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/11/obamedia-alert-minnesota-significantly.html

  19. Frogg says:

    OBAMEDIA ALERT: Minnesota “Significantly Closer” than Polls Predicted …Update: Iowa Miracle? …Update: PUMA’s May Flip Ohio!!

    http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/11/obamedia-alert-minnesota-significantly.html