Nov 04 2008
My “Prediction” For Today! – Updated
 
Get Out And Vote!
Update: When you read the link below (here again) I want folks to notice how Obama and the liberal dems actually increased the conservative intensity across many instances of insulting and demeaning the very voters they needed to sit home, not ‘walk across broken glass’ to vote:
In 2008, there are more phenomenons of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ than I have ever seen…
-Conservatives believe the media has been outrageously fawning over Obama and doing everything it can to protect him. This has enraged them even more than in 2004.
-Obama’s comment of people in rural areas were nothing more than ‘bitter clingers’ who cling to guns and religion have caused lingering outrage at him. This comment, alone, is one reason why Pennslyvania turned on him.
-The Bail-Out Bill enraged many and was when conservatives finally abandoned Bush. But Bush is not on the ticket anymore so that doesn’t matter. Rather, the enragement is aimed at Pelosi and Reid, the leaders of the House and Senate.
-Media treatment of Sarah Palin generated many ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ and even overlapped to the Hillary Clinton supporters.
-Joe the Plumber. At first, Joe the Plumber recieved much amusement and delight of the electorate since it was funny to watch the presidential candidates refer to some citizen and even talk directly to ‘him’ on the camera. After the debate, naturally the press put up photos of the ‘conversation’ between Joe and Obama in amusement as well (amusement in how this citizen somehow ended up as the topic in the third debate). Then, Obama and Biden mocked joe the Plumber and said plumbers could never earn $250,000, and this followed with news came out about Joe’s salary, his marriage, his driver’s license, his taxes, his lack of a plumber’s license, and him ultimately being fired by the plumbing union. This enraged people like I have never seen before. Joe the Plumber became the ‘John Galt’ icon. I heard stories of visible Obama supporters being rattled by this such as SoCal voters peeling off their bumper stickers and uprooting their Obama signs.
…
At one McCain rally, that man who screamed, “I’M ANGRY! I’M REALLY ANGRY!!!†is a microcosm of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’. It is the reason why, now, the blood red Utah has people rushing to the early voting polls. In Texas, an army of pick-up trucks have descended upon the polls. Much of the interest in early voting, which is exceeding 2004 levels, is being mistaken as enthused support for Obama. But it is likely that it is ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ which exist in both Democrat and Republican parties. This white hot intensity of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ has not, and cannot, be measured with standard measures (how can a poll detect passion? It cannot).
This guy is the next Karl Rove … if he wants to be.
Update: A very optimistic assessment for McCain-Palin:
In my second post about the election, I told you to keep an eye on Iowa for if Obama comes back here, a state he should have locked at this time, he is toast. Well, Obama is back in Iowa which means he is toast. If it is competitive in Iowa (it was very competitive in 2004), that means that McCain is running as well as Bush or better and has FL, CO, IN, NC, OH, NH, and VA all comfortable. McCain going to Maine suggests Obama is performing worse than Kerry or, rather, Obama’s support is ’soft’ among Democrats.
I saw an interesting bit of simple math to explain the power of Democrat (PUMA) defections. Assume 10 Reps and 10 dems are locked in a tight battle (50-50%). Then all of a sudden 2 dems jump ship to the GOP side to make the sides 12-8, or 60%-40%. The point being is defections hurt more than adding or subtracting independents. PUMAs are the key, and if they turned out in large numbers Obama could really be toast.
Major Update: McCain’s internal polls show massive move in the battleground states. They see a long night but a win. No need to put this out if they felt they were losing IMHO.
I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win.
Update: I wonder what would happen if the highly democrat-leaning exit polls showed a serious problem for Obama?? Â Just thinking out loud folks! Turnout seems to be very heavy, which should require large numbers left and right to achieve, nulling any supposed Obama edge in intensity and turnout. Would the exit polls be the first glimpse of this? I would love to hear some hint of what they are showing (as you all would I suspect).
Update: Well we now know there was no Democrat turnout edge in CO’s early voting. Seems the anti Obama forces were able to neutralize it there with 50% of the registered voters participating. Looks like Obama might have fallen flat there.
Update: Watch PA and VA today. If turnout is as high as it sounds to be then McCain-Palin could be in the process of a major upset. Check out this anecdotal evidence from PA. No solid news yet from Virginia, will update when it comes in.
Update: Wow, could this be the surprise poll of the year? GWU/Battleground has the race under 2% when they allocate undecideds (this is a two page PDF, make sure to scroll the second page)!
Update: Hey folks, if you go out and vote give us all a little report on your area and the turnout. You are the eyes of the country right now. I am heading out to vote soon too, so if your comment gets held up be patient – will release it as soon as I get back.
Update: It’s official, turnout is massive and probably historic. What this means is those expectations of a huge Dem edge in turnout may be the fantasy many of us said it was. Will the liberals be in shock tonight? If The Surge of McCain-Palin supporters show up I believe are out there, there will be a totally new meaning on the left for the phrase “shock and awe”.Â
Update: Folks, keep watching the top of thius post throughout the day, it will cover any important updates (minus the first at the bottom with the video). OK, Obi-wan Kenobi speaks and says the Force may be with us! That being the force of equal or greater numbers and intensity.
Update: Excellent news from VA. High turnout will neutralize any Dem edge. I am feeling confident this state is in McCain’s camp. Plus other great news from across the nation! – end update
I have no idea how tomorrow will turn out. The state polls showed a tightening race, but national polls drifted back towards Obama after tightening late last week. Voter turnout has been huge, but the new voters Obama needs are not showing up. And then there is this tidbit about polls and how Democrats and Conservatives respond.
The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
What goes for exit polls goes double for normal polls. I think there is a possibly an equal, or maybe greater, wave of McCain-Palin supporters as compared to Obama’s support that the polls are simply not seeing because these voters are running silent. I think the wrong direction vote is aimed at the entire Political Industrial Complex – of which pollsters and the news media are a part. And there are many Americans who would never engage with these groups. For example:
1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,†“homophobe,†“single-issue-voter,†“warmonger,†or “against change,†even if the voter is none of these.
2) Similarly, pollsters have reported higher than usual numbers of undecided voters or voters still capable of changing their minds. People know Senator McCain. Do they know Senator Obama well enough to break for him this late in the game?
3) Most importantly, in 2004, pollsters were caught by surprise by the amount of voters who left the polls saying “social issues†were most influential in determining their vote. In 2008, the media has been mostly silent on these causes, focusing instead on the economy and Iraq. This focus ignores an important reality. The “Value Voters†block of mostly Evangelicals and a good percentage of conservative Catholics and others, may indeed be wrapped up in these urgent headlines, but there is no convincing data to suggest they have inverted their voting priorities, turning away from abortion, traditional marriage, limited government, etc. If Senator Kerry’s policy proposals were enough to get this voting block to the booth, Senator Obama’s policies should bring them out in droves.
So here goes my hesitant prediction which I cannot back up and wouldn’t bet a nickel over.
If I am right I see McCain keeping FL, NC, VA, OH, IN, NV, and MO Red. WV, SD, MT AR and AZ also stay red.
The big surprise is PA goes red this year (it was within 2% in 2004). This would give McCain a 286-252 win in the Electoral College. I think it is even possible McCain picks up MN or CO – which could raise the McCain-Palin victory to 305-233 (plus maybe one in Maine). This is the range I hope to see McCain win by tomorrow.
I have no clue if it will turn out that way. But if everyone who supports McCain-Palin, or opposes Obama, gets out and votes, then they can prove me right!
Update: Some very optimistic and positive news from McCain camp (H/T Gateway Pundit)
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Get Out And Vote!
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Prof. Strata: Your prediction to God’s ear. All my best to the Strata crew back there. JG
My moderate, very reasonable, very humble “prediction”:
Obama 338 – McCain 200
Senate 57 – 43
“It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,†“homophobe,†“single-issue-voter,†“warmonger,†or “against change…”
so understandable… thanks for putting that in there…
Nighty night republicans…
Good luck tomorrow…
I think you meant MO, not CO, at the end of your first list of states.
But otherwise — I think you’re right.
Pennsylvania is going to be the deciding state, this year. And I have a really good feeling about it, despite the anticipated 105% turnout in Philly.
Marston Chronicles agrees with AJ,
Texas Darlin carries the link to a statistician expert in poll analysis:
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=94&Itemid=118
THE MCCAIN-PALIN LANDSLIDE
Your first thought is that I am drunk on Kool-Aid when you see this title. I am going to show you why I am so sure about this prediction. Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy. That includes get elected to office to prove I was right about winning an election. See my biography for details. I have to be very sure to risk a 45 year reputation so remember that you read it here first.
The next question is how could I possibly be so sure when the polls are predicting the exact opposite? Because I know the polls are wrong since they are not properly taking into account the P.U.M.A. Factor. I have explained previously that the mere fact that the polls violently disagree with each other is proof of something seriously amiss with the polling models. See my article on The P.U.M.A. Factor. On November 1st, I posted an article entitled How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?
That article pointed out that, at the time I wrote it, it required only a total of 493,636 PUMA voters in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to produce a tie in the electoral votes. Add a mere 35,935 more in Nevada and McCain-Palin wins. At the time, I was almost ready to bet the ranch that there were 529,571 PUMA voters in those six states, but I waited another 24 hours to make sure. Now the trend is so clear that it is obvious to me that a McCain-Palin landslide is in the works. It is amazing how few people in politics never apply some fairly simple mathematics to see what is going to happen in the next election.
UPDATE: I have posted an updated article predicting an 81 electoral vote landslide for McCain-Palin called McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. Click on the link to go there.
SNIP – but go there and he gives a thorough account. This is a very
small snippet of a long and interesting article. It was also up briefly at RCP.
I think a large percentage of conservatives are simply hanging up or not answering as soon as they realize its a poll on the line. I think out of all the times I was called (at least 30) I only responded once.
I’ve been very angry this election at the liberals, especially at one of my senators, Harry Reid, who I even voted for in 2004. I wasn’t paying all that much attention that election and I was swayed by his seniority and the Las Vegas Review Journal. They SAID! he was a conservative Democrat!
Oh, and BIB ESAD!
We shall see, just vote. If virgina is real close or a McCain win, you know somethings up
Clintsf-105% turnout? I can’t tell whether to laugh or get angry at the implications.
Some of Obama’s partisans, it seems, advocate “direct action” if A.J.’s prediction should come true:
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/36993
——
A McCain “Win” Will Be Theft, Resistance Is Planned
If your television declares John McCain the president elect on the evening of November 4th, your television will be lying. You should immediately pick up your pre-packed bags and head straight to the White House in Washington, D.C., which we will surround and shut down until this attempt at a third illegitimate presidency is reversed…We should be prepared already to immediately travel to Washington, D.C., head straight for the White House, occupy Lafayette Square Park, the Ellipse, and surrounding streets, block entrances, and shut the place down until Obama is recognized as the president elect or we are guaranteed a credible election with universal registration and hand-counted paper ballots.
—–
etc., etc.
Trouble now or trouble later would seem to be a very safe prediction, and we may yet find ourselves looking back to “the good old days” of Florida 2000.
I hope bib is wrong. He has been wrong about most things, so maybe that will hold.
I think Obama is a fraud and a liar and a charlatan, and I am hoping enough Americans see that to make a difference.
Why wouldn’t McCain supporters talk about how they feel? The other day someone ask me who I was voting for, I told her and she was in my face screaming at me. She wants that $300 Obama is sending poor people by God. As if she were poor.
It is just like the late breaking news that Palin was cleared in the Troopergate nonsense. Sure, it was bs, but it served its purpose.
I do not know who will win. I make no predictions, but I can honestly say that the majority of people I know not only are not voting for Obama, but they detest him. If he wins, he will be stuck with an incompetent Congress, a lot of promises he can not keep, and a country in which half the population does not like him, not even a little bit.
bib:
The Attorney General here in Indiana is bringing criminal racketeering charges against ACORN for registering nonexistent people in Indianapolis and Gary. Obama is knee deep in all that. If he wins, it will be because he broke campaign finance laws, he broke voter registration laws, he lied about his past associations and he lied about what he intends to do as President. The butt kissing and fawning press helped. After all it was the foreign press that told us about the illegal alien aunt. The American press was too busy puckering up.
So if Obama wins, I will feel like he stole the election.
How does all of these dead newly registered democratic voters affect the Poll numbers? From my previous post below.
Hi AJ,
I heard someone call into the Roger Hedgecock show today saying that the reason the polls are so far off is due to the ACORN voter registrations. He says that by increasing the number of new voters that are registered Democrat, this changes the polling numbers in their favor to make it look as if they are in the lead. Can you explain if this is true and exactly how it would work in the Dems favor regarding the poll numbers??
Thanks,
SBD
So who is this guy Obama?
http://israelinsider.ning.com/profiles/blogs/is-obama-the-secret-son-of
It’s worth your time to go and read it.
I promise.
Terrye..I watched how long it took for the NW corner of Ind. to report in the primaries.
It is too close a commute to Chicago and there was not justifiable reason for them to report so many hours after the rest of the state was finished.
I hope that they have a good number of election monitors in that area.
First official results in from Dixville Notch NH
Obama 15
McCain 6
Here is hoping for a McCain win!
Texas is going to go deep red! Yay!
Archtop reporting for duty, sir!
I’ve carried out my civic responsibility at my local polling location and have cast my vote for McCain-Palin. Here’s hoping NH turns red this year…I’m sure MY vote will be the one puts McCain-Palin over the top :^)
Clintsf – yes I did! That’s what I get for 1:30 AM postings.
Well my part is done.
I stood in line, in the rain, for one hour and fifteen minutes.
I cast my ballot in less than 2 minutes once the “red tape” was done.
I’ve been voting in the same place for 12 years and have never waited more than 20 minutes to vote.
BGG,
Hate to ask (probably a dumb question), which state?
AJStrata
Excellent Archtop, how were the lines?
AJStrata
Hi AJ,
The line was pretty long at 7:45 AM (poll opened at 8 AM) – probably about 100 people. It didn’t take me too long to get in to vote after 8 AM (about 15 – 20 min) as I had gotten there at 7:30. I’m sure the lines will be long all day long – and I live in a relatively small town.
I voted early (exactly one week ago) in FL, and the polling place was in a heavily Cuban district. 45 minutes to vote, with most of my fellow voters (I’d guesstimate 75% of them) being Cuban and over 50 years of age.
Today I drove by one polling place (Coral Gables, a suburb of Miami) and there were lines out the door as of 8:45am. I’ll report anything else I see.