Nov 04 2008
My “Prediction” For Today! – Updated
 
Get Out And Vote!
Update: When you read the link below (here again) I want folks to notice how Obama and the liberal dems actually increased the conservative intensity across many instances of insulting and demeaning the very voters they needed to sit home, not ‘walk across broken glass’ to vote:
In 2008, there are more phenomenons of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ than I have ever seen…
-Conservatives believe the media has been outrageously fawning over Obama and doing everything it can to protect him. This has enraged them even more than in 2004.
-Obama’s comment of people in rural areas were nothing more than ‘bitter clingers’ who cling to guns and religion have caused lingering outrage at him. This comment, alone, is one reason why Pennslyvania turned on him.
-The Bail-Out Bill enraged many and was when conservatives finally abandoned Bush. But Bush is not on the ticket anymore so that doesn’t matter. Rather, the enragement is aimed at Pelosi and Reid, the leaders of the House and Senate.
-Media treatment of Sarah Palin generated many ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ and even overlapped to the Hillary Clinton supporters.
-Joe the Plumber. At first, Joe the Plumber recieved much amusement and delight of the electorate since it was funny to watch the presidential candidates refer to some citizen and even talk directly to ‘him’ on the camera. After the debate, naturally the press put up photos of the ‘conversation’ between Joe and Obama in amusement as well (amusement in how this citizen somehow ended up as the topic in the third debate). Then, Obama and Biden mocked joe the Plumber and said plumbers could never earn $250,000, and this followed with news came out about Joe’s salary, his marriage, his driver’s license, his taxes, his lack of a plumber’s license, and him ultimately being fired by the plumbing union. This enraged people like I have never seen before. Joe the Plumber became the ‘John Galt’ icon. I heard stories of visible Obama supporters being rattled by this such as SoCal voters peeling off their bumper stickers and uprooting their Obama signs.
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At one McCain rally, that man who screamed, “I’M ANGRY! I’M REALLY ANGRY!!!†is a microcosm of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’. It is the reason why, now, the blood red Utah has people rushing to the early voting polls. In Texas, an army of pick-up trucks have descended upon the polls. Much of the interest in early voting, which is exceeding 2004 levels, is being mistaken as enthused support for Obama. But it is likely that it is ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ which exist in both Democrat and Republican parties. This white hot intensity of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ has not, and cannot, be measured with standard measures (how can a poll detect passion? It cannot).
This guy is the next Karl Rove … if he wants to be.
Update: A very optimistic assessment for McCain-Palin:
In my second post about the election, I told you to keep an eye on Iowa for if Obama comes back here, a state he should have locked at this time, he is toast. Well, Obama is back in Iowa which means he is toast. If it is competitive in Iowa (it was very competitive in 2004), that means that McCain is running as well as Bush or better and has FL, CO, IN, NC, OH, NH, and VA all comfortable. McCain going to Maine suggests Obama is performing worse than Kerry or, rather, Obama’s support is ’soft’ among Democrats.
I saw an interesting bit of simple math to explain the power of Democrat (PUMA) defections. Assume 10 Reps and 10 dems are locked in a tight battle (50-50%). Then all of a sudden 2 dems jump ship to the GOP side to make the sides 12-8, or 60%-40%. The point being is defections hurt more than adding or subtracting independents. PUMAs are the key, and if they turned out in large numbers Obama could really be toast.
Major Update: McCain’s internal polls show massive move in the battleground states. They see a long night but a win. No need to put this out if they felt they were losing IMHO.
I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win.
Update: I wonder what would happen if the highly democrat-leaning exit polls showed a serious problem for Obama?? Â Just thinking out loud folks! Turnout seems to be very heavy, which should require large numbers left and right to achieve, nulling any supposed Obama edge in intensity and turnout. Would the exit polls be the first glimpse of this? I would love to hear some hint of what they are showing (as you all would I suspect).
Update: Well we now know there was no Democrat turnout edge in CO’s early voting. Seems the anti Obama forces were able to neutralize it there with 50% of the registered voters participating. Looks like Obama might have fallen flat there.
Update: Watch PA and VA today. If turnout is as high as it sounds to be then McCain-Palin could be in the process of a major upset. Check out this anecdotal evidence from PA. No solid news yet from Virginia, will update when it comes in.
Update: Wow, could this be the surprise poll of the year? GWU/Battleground has the race under 2% when they allocate undecideds (this is a two page PDF, make sure to scroll the second page)!
Update: Hey folks, if you go out and vote give us all a little report on your area and the turnout. You are the eyes of the country right now. I am heading out to vote soon too, so if your comment gets held up be patient – will release it as soon as I get back.
Update: It’s official, turnout is massive and probably historic. What this means is those expectations of a huge Dem edge in turnout may be the fantasy many of us said it was. Will the liberals be in shock tonight? If The Surge of McCain-Palin supporters show up I believe are out there, there will be a totally new meaning on the left for the phrase “shock and awe”.Â
Update: Folks, keep watching the top of thius post throughout the day, it will cover any important updates (minus the first at the bottom with the video). OK, Obi-wan Kenobi speaks and says the Force may be with us! That being the force of equal or greater numbers and intensity.
Update: Excellent news from VA. High turnout will neutralize any Dem edge. I am feeling confident this state is in McCain’s camp. Plus other great news from across the nation! – end update
I have no idea how tomorrow will turn out. The state polls showed a tightening race, but national polls drifted back towards Obama after tightening late last week. Voter turnout has been huge, but the new voters Obama needs are not showing up. And then there is this tidbit about polls and how Democrats and Conservatives respond.
The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
What goes for exit polls goes double for normal polls. I think there is a possibly an equal, or maybe greater, wave of McCain-Palin supporters as compared to Obama’s support that the polls are simply not seeing because these voters are running silent. I think the wrong direction vote is aimed at the entire Political Industrial Complex – of which pollsters and the news media are a part. And there are many Americans who would never engage with these groups. For example:
1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,†“homophobe,†“single-issue-voter,†“warmonger,†or “against change,†even if the voter is none of these.
2) Similarly, pollsters have reported higher than usual numbers of undecided voters or voters still capable of changing their minds. People know Senator McCain. Do they know Senator Obama well enough to break for him this late in the game?
3) Most importantly, in 2004, pollsters were caught by surprise by the amount of voters who left the polls saying “social issues†were most influential in determining their vote. In 2008, the media has been mostly silent on these causes, focusing instead on the economy and Iraq. This focus ignores an important reality. The “Value Voters†block of mostly Evangelicals and a good percentage of conservative Catholics and others, may indeed be wrapped up in these urgent headlines, but there is no convincing data to suggest they have inverted their voting priorities, turning away from abortion, traditional marriage, limited government, etc. If Senator Kerry’s policy proposals were enough to get this voting block to the booth, Senator Obama’s policies should bring them out in droves.
So here goes my hesitant prediction which I cannot back up and wouldn’t bet a nickel over.
If I am right I see McCain keeping FL, NC, VA, OH, IN, NV, and MO Red. WV, SD, MT AR and AZ also stay red.
The big surprise is PA goes red this year (it was within 2% in 2004). This would give McCain a 286-252 win in the Electoral College. I think it is even possible McCain picks up MN or CO – which could raise the McCain-Palin victory to 305-233 (plus maybe one in Maine). This is the range I hope to see McCain win by tomorrow.
I have no clue if it will turn out that way. But if everyone who supports McCain-Palin, or opposes Obama, gets out and votes, then they can prove me right!
Update: Some very optimistic and positive news from McCain camp (H/T Gateway Pundit)
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Get Out And Vote!
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I voted at 7:15 this am in my polling place at a Presbyterian Church in Lynchburg, Va. I have voted there in roughly six previous elections. My precinct votes probably 65 to 70% Republican, so big turnout is good. I would say the turnout is at least triple that of previous years. The Obama people had a tent manned by two individuals. I arrived simultaneously with six or seven other cars. We parked, and not one of us would make eye contact with these idiots. i stayed after I voted for a while, just to see if anyone would talk to them, and no one, NO ONE did.
I sense some passion, some determination on the part of those who voted. Fingers crossed.
Western Iowa, polls open at 7. . My newly registered son and I there at 7:05 Waited in a line for 20 minutes and was # 40.
The voter folks said more machines were on their way.
I have never waited, much less out the door, I was #40 and this is a very conservative part of a very close state.
I think we will get our first Foreign Born Marxist President.
Government Schools and the Media sure are a bad combination.
I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.
Boortz is depressed today:
Thanks, Republicans. This one belongs to you. The Republican Party completely abandoned its principles after the voter revolution of 1994. The GOP became the party of big spending and big government. Beltway Republicans became drunk on power and completely forgot why they were there. They gave us no real reason to go to the polls and vote for them save for that filibuster-proof Senate scare and the fear of what the election of a Marxist will mean to our freedoms.
Thanks, George Bush. Thanks for your spectacular lack of leadership on issues of spending and big government over the past two terms. You get all the credit in the world for keeping America safe from another terrorist attack … but when a president signs a bill he thinks is unconstitutional (McCain-Feingold) just because he thinks the Supreme Court will straighten things out; and when a president introduces grand new entitlement programs (Medicare drug benefits) and fails to veto even one pork-laden spending bill … well, the result is an uninspired electorate and … Barack Obama.
Thanks, Government Schools. Back to that woman at the Obama rally: Does she really believe that once Obama is elected she won’t have to worry about putting gas in her car or paying her mortgage? Yup, she probably does. Then we have those Harlem voters who think that Barack Obama did a fine job in selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate. This election, more than any I can remember, illustrates why Democrats are so determined to preserve our system of government education. American voters are, for the most part, spectacularly uninformed about the issues and the candidates they are voting for. Did I say “uninformed?” I meant to say ignorant. For the most part these people casting ballots today could not name their two U.S. Senators and their Congressman if their flat-screens and cell phones depended on it. Things are only going to get worse. Get ready for an all-out war on school choice .. and that includes the home schooling option. The era of the teacher’s unions is upon us.
And thanks Voters. This is an election that has been driven by wealth envy and celebrity worship. I really don’t see any of this changing anytime soon … so, whatchagonnado?
Depressed, but correct on all.
Boortz is why the GOP went into the rut – he is one of those purists.
If Boortz is bummed it must mean McCain is about take over the Rep brand.
AJ,
I live in GA.
I voted at 10:00 AM (took off work) because that is the dead time for my voting site (which I have used since 1992). Usually nobody is there, the place was full.
But we have an efficient process that let’s folks with our real last name get into the fastlane. Most people in line were going to be there for about 20-30 minutes. Happens my part of the alphabet had no line so it took me 5 minutes.
But usually the place is dead this time of day – and I mean I am one of 4 people in line. Today there were 20-30 people.
If the Conservatives keep coming out like this Obama will not win!
Voted this morning about 8am in Franklin County Columbus Ohio, waited about 1 hour to vote. When I came out the line was much shorter maybe 10 or 15 minutes wait. I am going back at midday just to see how long the wait is.
I got to the polls in Southern Maryland at 0725. Voted at 0805. Turnout seemed heavy…but I can’t be certain, as I voted earlier than I normally do (my habit has been to slip out for an early lunch and vote then).
It won’t matter in Maryland, but this area is pretty conservative.
Why are you excited about the GWU/Battleground poll? Its track record has been very accurate, and it has McC losing! Did I miss something here?
Btw, I’m still going to vote NO MATTER WHAT.
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I was voter #176 here in Lebanon, PA. The place was packed, lots of folks in camos and hunting hats, in other words, bitter people clinging to their guns and religion, with antipathy toward those who aren’t like them. I also got a report from my wife, who took her grandma to the polls. That location was also packed. She was #353. So based on these experiences and local radio reports, it looks like a huge turnout in south-central PA, which is great news for McCain/Palin.
Kitty,
Less than 2% is a statistical tie – that is not losing. Because of the math Obama is NOT winning.
I voted in KC MO this am at 7:00, polls opened at 6:00. I vote in a heavily democratic district (Cleaver is my Rep), this area racially and ethnically mixed (AA, Hispanic and Asian) and I pulled up to the entrance, parked and went right in and voted. Total time about 8 minutes, no line, no waiting and probably 4 booths open.
As I said in another thread I voted 2 weeks ago, straight GOP ticket.
I voted in Greenwich, CT shortly after 6:00 am – we got to the polls about 5:50 and there were already lines out the door. It moved pretty quickly once they started voting at 6. Heavier turn out than I have seen here in the 20+ years we’ve lived here.
I don’t know what it means, though. This is traditionally a Republican town in a blue state, but new people moving in over the past decade have mostly been liberal Democrat lawyers, investment bankers, and financial services types. Chris Shays (RINO, but the only Republican congress critter in New England) is running dead even.
It’s been a funny election season here. People who I thought were pretty reliably liberal voting for McCain, people who’ve been lifelong Republicans voting for Obama (the elite effect IMHO – Obama’s one of them with his Punahoe, Columbia and Harvard education). The state will go blue of course, but maybe we’ll get a state Constitutional Convention.
this is priceless…somone from greenwich calling obama elitist…i guess foodstamps and scholarships are the new rolex and cartier. the level of delusion here is astounding.
“…what goes for exit polls goes double for normal polls…” where do you come up with this stuff?
rayabacus,
That is pretty stunning.
Checking in from Suburban PA.
I have never seen anything quite like this here in Bucks County.
People waiting an hour to an hour an a half in some locations.
Robo calls (both parties but more for McCain) are coming at the average of one every twenty minutes or so since 8am.
Just spoke with my daughter who resides in another suburban area and she waited almost 2 hours to vote.
Also spoke with someone from South Carolina this morning who told me she had never seen such a large turnout in her small town.
Fingers crossed that much of this overflow is for the GOP.
Oh, and thanks for helping keep our sanity Strata family!
I vote at the Coopers Plains Fire Dept. in Coopers Plains, NY — right up the road from me. There are 640 registered voters; I know because I asked. At 11:15 this morning I was #215 (I think), and I had to wait in line. There is no way you could commit voter fraud there because the ladies who man the polling place know everyone. They’ve been doing this for decades.
I asked them if they could leave early, since the voting was going at such a brisk pace.
“No, because So-in-so is out sick and So-in-so is out of town. And if all 640 registered voters are not signed in, we can’t leave early.”
I love country living 🙂
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Just wanted to add that latest Russell internals show that Murtha and Russell are in a virtual tie.
If Russell can pull this one out of the fire then that also bodes well for McCain/Palin in the Western part of the state.