Nov 16 2008
Global Warming Lies Will Bring World Economic Recession
 
There are legitimate times when nations need to suck their resources and production capacity dry in an effort to save humanity. The last time was World War II. Since then there have been times when nations need to buckle down and make investments in national security or emergency response to natural disasters. But these times of economic challenge will pale in comparison to what the liberals are planning to address the myth of man-made, CO2 driven global warming.
This myth of man-made, CO2 driven global warming is this year being proven to be the lie many said it was. This is the year were the past 4-6 years of near steady, slowly dropping global temperatures takes a major downturn – in complete violation of all the predictions made by human-made mathematical models which predicted runaway global warming and are the basis from which liberals claim we need to enter into global recession.
First some evidence that this year is probably the beginning of the decade’s long cooling the science data now indicates is possible. And with this cooling we have the evidence needed to finally prove, beyond any doubt, the false cries of doom coming from the Church of IPCC/Al Gore.Â
So we begin with the fact that as CO2 levels continue to rise, Alaska is experiencing its coldest fall in a century:
One of the coldest Octobers on record in the Interior has the Yukon River grinding to a halt and residents settling in for winter.
October 2008 went down as Fairbanks’ fourth-coldest October on record since 1904, according to meteorologist Rick Thoman with the National Weather Service in Fairbanks. The average temperature of 15.1 degrees was 8.4 degrees below normal.
…
There were 13 days when the low temperature was zero or colder, the most sub-zero days in October since 1965, which holds the record of 14 sub-zero days in October and ranks as the second-coldest October on record.
This was not a spike of cold over a few days but a long term cold soak which would have broken more records if a brief warm spike had not blown in. Remember that humanity’s activities are supposedly overwhelming the natural forces of the planet if one is to believe Al Gore and his fellow travelers. These 2008 records challenging levels going back to 1904 and 1965 prove that CO2 levels cannot be the driver of global temperatures claimed by the alarmists on the left and inside the UN. CO2 levels are very high compared to 1904, let alone 1965, and so is the world’s human population.
For example, in 1900 the world population was 1.65 billion people, in 1965 it was 3.33 billion and in 2005 it was 6.45 billion. In percentages of today’s population that makes 1900 25% and 1965 52% of today’s population levels. It is mathematically impossible for a force of man that changed the global climate to be completely neutralized in a single year to levels equal to times when the world hosted half or a quarter of the population, and even smaller fractions of CO2 output. If the IPCC calculations where required to safely launch and return a Space Shuttle and showed these errors they IPCC would be fired for all eternity from working on human space flight.
Sadly, this bad data is coming from inside NASA, from a marginal offshoot group called GISS in New York (not to be confused with GSFC in MD where I hang out). Just this month outside bloggers had to correct the GISS data again, as it claimed there was historic warming in Russia, which turned out to really be stale September data left in the October calculations.
More and more scientist see a risk of too much cooling, something today’s higher CO2 levels could offset. And what we really don’t want is cooling, because it has been historically warmer than today, and during those times mankind flourished:
Global climate has always changed and recent climate changes are not unusual. The world was warmer in the mediaeval warm period, in the Roman warm period and on many occasions before then. During these periods agriculture and civilisations flourished. During cold periods like the little ice age there was famine, plague and war.
Both surface temperature records and the much more accurate records from satellite observations show there was a brief warming period from 1975-98. Since then, the world has cooled and is now at the same temperature it was in 1995. Nobody knows when, or if, world temperatures might increase.
Since the research for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report was completed in mid 2006, researchers have discovered that warming since 1975 is not caused by greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas warming would be at a maximum 10,000m above the tropics.
Observations from balloons and satellites have shown that warming is not happening. Therefore greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide are not a major factor in the world climate.
Like I said, today’s data completely disproves the models of those who have been crying fire. For a complete listing of the erroneous claims from Al Gore’s Church of IPCC check out this extensive analysis. Here are a few snippets:
The “Report’s†assertion that the “possible severity†of the consequences of “global warming†is becoming “increasingly clear†is not and cannot be based on any scientific view. “Global warming†began at the end of the Maunder Minimum in 1700 and continued at a near-uniform rate of 0.5-0.7 degrees C (0.9-1.2 F) per century until 1998, when it paused. There has been no statistically-significant increase in mean global surface temperature since 1998. In the past six and a half years global temperatures have been falling at an impressive rate equivalent to 0.4 degrees C (0.7 F) per decade:
The case for man-made, CO2 driven global warming is falling apart. And yet the liberals want to cripple the world’s economy and put the financial burden on the poorest among us by taxing everything that involves energy – which is everything. If you are measured and taxed by your carbon footprint, you are being taxed for the act of ‘being alive’.
One of the things the opposition to liberalism can champion without any risk is the requirement that the claims of global warming alarmist be vetted and reviewed given the extreme burden these fanatics are planning for all of humanity. It is time to bring scientific fact to the battle against emotional alarmists.
BTW, LJStrata came across this great quote from a book on Al Gore’s folly:
The true story – and this is not even open to interpretation among honest men – is that irrigation carried out by totalitarian and communist governments has dried up the [Aral] sea. Without the water there to cool the desert air, the region has warmed. Gore uses an environmental crime committed by government and central planning as an argument to restrict industry and capitalism. His argument is so far beyond rational that the light from rational takes an hour and a half to reach it.
You can read up on the Aral Sea situation here:
Once the world’s fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 68,000 km², the Aral Sea has been steadily shrinking since the 1960s, after the rivers Amu Darya and Syr Darya that fed it were diverted by Soviet Union irrigationprojects. By 2004, the sea had shrunk to 25% of its original surface area, and a nearly fivefold increase in salinity had killed most of its natural floraand fauna. By 2007 it had declined to 10% of its original size, splitting into three separate lakes, two of which are too salty to support fish.[1] The once prosperous fishing industry has been virtually destroyed, and former fishing towns along the original shores have become ship graveyards. With this collapse has come unemployment and economic hardship.Â
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Clearly someone is lying about what is happening in this area and how it can be reversed through green house policies. All the CO2 cuts in the world will do nothing to fix the problem. This is classic liberal propaganda which should be trivial to challenge and knock down. Should be …
Global warming is the greatest fraud perpetrated by a government on people since the Emperor’s new clothes.
Actually, it stopped in 1933 when temperatures declined until about 1976. Then temperatures warmed again between 1976 and 1998 but never reached 1933 levels. Also, it appears that at least for the past 3000 years or so, each warm period has been a little cooler than the last one. In other words, we have been in a general cooling period for the past few thousand years even tough temperatures vary a bit.
And even then, 1976 was more of a “step up” in temperatures. From 1979 to 1997 temperatures varied but there was no no overall warming trend.
Here’s a different source of data that shows the same thing.
Real life consequences of a lie. Decimation of our energy industry has put the Saudi’s in the drivers seat in the Israel/Palestine conflict. By moving so fast it has put our car industry out of business. If it moves, families will pay. No amount of federal help will off set the cost. Coal and oil are not friends of the democratic party.
Leverage by the Arabs, Russia, Venezuela, will prove to be catastrophic for democracies. It’s been a long time coming but the Arabs are in the drivers seat and they know it.
Great post, I had already read about that GISS fiasco. How so many people have been so fooled by algore is amazing. It’s cultish, so many people have bought into his fantasy that it seems impossible to get the ‘world’ to begin to think clearly. I remember the theme of Earth day in 1974, the “coming Ice Age” how quickly that changed. It was actually true then and is still true today. Keep up the good work.
Why the global cooling cult? I think that peoples lives are so vacant of any thing meaningful, that any star is worth grabbing. Urges are satisfied with immediate gratification. Sex is easy, hunger to the nearest MacDonalds, need something, credit cards in the pocket, religion is for the unthinking, war for those can’t carry on a conversation, soldiers can’t do anything but take commands. The great professors have the sophisticated answers, never mind that they have never been applied to real life. I know smart people that say cooling is due to warming. They will never let it go any more then they will let go that we were really loosing in VietNam, and no body died as a consequence of our leaving.
The warmest period of this interglacial was apparently immediately after ending the last glaciation in a period known as the Holocene Optimum. We then almost slipped back into glaciation during the Younger Dryas before coming back out to pretty much what we have now.
When the Roman Empire first expanded over the Alps, there was very little snow in passes that now are glaciated. As glaciers retreated in the last decade they exposed wood. That wood carbon dated to about 5000 years ago. So 5000 years ago (about the time humans were developing agriculture and inventing writing) the Alps were not only ice free where there is now glaciers, but had been ice free long enough to become forested.
What is really happening is the certain political parties would want to use “Global Warming” as a hook to gain control over allocation of resources such as energy production and industrial production. It isn’t about environmentalism. If they were environmentalists, they would allow drilling off the coast of California in order to eliminate the massive amounts of oil and gas that seep into the ocean off of the Santa Barbara coast.
More oil is dumped naturally into the ocean off Coal Oil Point in California in one month than was spilled from all North American drilling operations over the entire decade of the 1990’s.
The beaches are cleaner now in Santa Barbara than they ever were. From the time Westerners first arrived in California until drilling started, those beaches were always fouled with natural oil seepage and the air smelled like diesel fuel when the wind was right. In the 1930’s the sands were basically black with oil and tarballs. When we started drilling and pumping, many of those seeps slowed down or stopped clearing the beaches of oil.
There is no “global warming” in the sense that we as human beings are driving the global climate. There IS local warming as humans have changed land usage in various areas through deforestation, cultivation, irrigation, and urban development. For example, irrigation raises the average temperature by making areas more humid. This results in a moderation of nighttime low temperatures. It doesn’t increase the highs, but it increases the lows. Urban heat islands can raise daytime high temperatures by several degrees over large areas. But there is still no evidence that global temperatures are increasing beyond any normal and previously experienced amount.
Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas. Anyone who has experienced dawn in the Southwestern desert can tell you that it is much different than dawn in Miami even though the daily high temperature might be identical. A 10 percent difference in relative humidity will make more difference than a doubling of CO2. Water vapor operates over a wider frequency range … in other words, it insulates earth over a broader range of the infrared spectrum than CO2 does.
CO2 levels were 5 times higher than today when corals and shellfish began to appear in large numbers. So this nonsense that increasing CO2 acidifies the ocean and is a threat to shellfish is just that, nonsense. Scientists can see exactly what doubling CO2 does, they can go back in the record and look and see what things were like when CO2 levels were double today’s levels. Erosion of rock constantly scrubs CO2 out of the air. When India slammed into Asia and the Himalayas rose, the amount of CO2 being removed skyrocketed. Earth’s CO2 levels in the holocene were getting low enough that some scientists were worried that plant life would begin to have trouble. Earth’w atmosphere was at record low CO2 content.
Every drop of oil, pound of coal, ton of limestone is made from CO2 taken out of the atmosphere. Same with many other minerals that are created by the reaction of rain water with exposed rock. Over time the atmosphere has become greatly CO2 depleted compared to what it was when most modern plant families first became widespread.
I have yet to find satisfactory evidence that:
A: Any warming we are experiencing is outside normal values associated with natural cyclical climate variation.
B: Humans are causing any change to these natural cycles on a global scale. (We can be causing changes locally through deforestation, dam building, city building, etc)
C: Any changes in CO2 content of the atmosphere is harmful. If anything it would be causing improved food production but it is too small of a change to really make any difference at this point. We are talking changes measured in parts per million. Greenhouse operators routinely charge greenhouses with 3 times the atmospheric level of CO2 to improve the health and vigor of the plants.
Oh, and polar bear populations are at record high levels.
“I remember the theme of Earth day in 1974, the “coming Ice Age†how quickly that changed. ”
Actually, there is an ice age coming, we just don’t know when. Over the past 2 million years or so, the *normal* condition is glaciation, or what we tend to call “ice age” though we have actually been in an uninterrupted ice age for the last 2 million years. You can tell because there is ice at the poles. Having ice at the poles is an odd condition for Earth. For most of Earth’s history both poles have been ice free.
Earth has lately been spending roughly 100,000 years in glaciation and 10,000 years in “interglacial” warm periods like this one (the Holocene). We are due to slip back into a glacial period at any time.
If there wasn’t a large land mass at the South pole we probably wouldn’t have ice there year-round. And if we didn’t have large land masses that surround the North pole to keep the Arctic ocean circulation from freely mixing with Atlantic and Pacific currents, we probably wouldn’t have ice there either.
Warm periods are the abnormal over the past 2 million years. What we call “ice age” is the normal condition. The change happens within a period of less than 100 years. That is not enough time for a society to adapt to much shorter growing seasons with the population that we currently support. The result is probably going to be widespread famine and turmoil.
the story about switching the monthly data is just horrifying. Even worse, I think Hansen will get away with it.
anyway I did some reading and according to the CBO a carbon permit plan would be regressive in nature as those in the lower income level will pay a greater percentage of their worth compared to those in upper income brackets.
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9901/10-27-PresentationWellesley.pdf
Robert C verdi,
Hansen didn’t switch the data, NOAA did in the data files they gave to Hansen. What is odd is the GISS didn’t notice that the temperatures were so far out of line. And this was caused by data from Russia, Lithuania, Poland and Ireland being replicated. How often has this happened in the past with a smaller number of stations and gone unnoticed?
The lack of quality control of climate data is astounding when we are supposed to be altering our lifestyles and spending billions because of it.
you guys should ask the farmers, gardeners, and arborists who had to have the gardening zone maps changed what they think.
I wouldn’t buy any real estate in Bangladesh.
Birdalone, things DID change from about 1976 to about 1998, particularly in North American where the weather is greatly impacted by the PDO.
Most of those gardening zone maps were made in the 1950’s and 1960’s when climate was cooling and the PDO was in its “cool” cycle. It flipped to the “warm” cycle in 1976 and it appears now to have flipped back to the “cool” phase in 2007. That is about right as these cycles are about 30 years in length.
So the gardening zone maps will be changing back over the next decade or so back to where they were.
When you look at climate over timescales shorter than a hundred years or so, it always varies. Climate is rarely stable for more than a decade or so. It was, in fact, unusually stable from about 2000 to 2006, practically no change in annual mean. 2007 and 2008 have shown what appears to be a “step down” consistent with the shift in the PDO and ENSO.
We will now experience more La Nina periods than El Nino periods for about the next 20 to 30 years. Then that will change and we will experience more El Ninos than La Ninas and it won’t be due to any human activity and there will be nothing we can do to control or change it.
North American climate, latest 12 month period (November-October) 1998 to 2008.
The trend line (green) is -0.55F per decade or a cooling rate of 5.5 degrees per century. That data is from NOAA. And that average is the average since 1898.
crosspatch,
Got it.
And as I suspected, Steve McIntyre has discovered yet more errors of duplicated data from successive months in the GISS data set. He apparently went back through the record for a single station (Resolute) in Canada. He found an instance in this case where the duplicated month was in the spring and made the station cooler than it was supposed to be. So in short, the GISS data is junk. Garbage in, garbage out. The GISS data can only be regarded as a “close approximation of what global climate might be most of the time, maybe”.
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