Mar 30 2009

A Bold Obama Is Proving To Be Popular

Published by at 12:45 pm under All General Discussions

Contrary to the handwringing on the right about government take overs the American public seem to be just fine with President Obama’s demand that failed managers leave companies being bailed out (according to Rasmussen 59% support this, 17% opposed). In fact, as the right rails they are losing the ground they had gained up to this point. And that has resulted in a bounce of support for Obama – for now:

That’s what we call screwing up in reverse. If this continues Obama will be very popular very soon.

18 responses so far

18 Responses to “A Bold Obama Is Proving To Be Popular”

  1. MarkN says:

    AJ: you still can’t read poll numbers. Statistical noise. The Obama approval rating has been in the high 50′s for the whole month of March. Any bounce between 55 and 59 is noise. Until he breaks out below 55 or above 60 for six consecutive days it is just noise.

    The strongly approved could retreat back to 36% and it would mean nothing statistically. One conclusion from the chart however, is that the base of strongly disapprove seems to be 30%. He will be in trouble if and when the strongly disapprove gets above 35%. Until then, Obama will range between 35-40% strongly approve and 30-33 strongly dissaprove.

    One caveat is that Rasmussen is using 41-33-26 D-R-I split for his polls. As the Democratic party affiliation drops below 40% and heads towards 37% the approval index will change.

  2. WWS says:

    Everyone except Mickey Kaus is missing the real risk in these moves for Obama. After ousting Wagoner, Obama now owns the car manufacturing crisis. If it gets better, then he will deserve the credit. But if it continues to get worse, and if GM continues to hemmorhage jobs and cash with no end in sight, Obama will have earned the blame because it will be his hand-picked people in charge of it.

    For GM to have any chance of survival, several of the divisions need to be closed. Obama has to choose whether to destroy the UAW’s base of support, or destroy GM. Neither choice will be very poltically helpful to him, but this is his baby now.

    I find it amazing that anyone would lament Wagoner, though – he drove GM into the ground while he cashed in all the way, plus he’s getting a $20 million retirement bonus. He’s a brain dead stuffed shirt with no chance at all of fixing this mess, so who cares if he’s gone? He’s had 3 months to try to find a way out and he’s done nothing. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

    Come to think of it, the new CEO’s got a lot in common with him.

  3. gary1son says:

    I think trying to tie the “right railing” to these opinion polls is rather like trying to do the same to CO2 when it comes to Earth temperature variations. And in fact it only helps to advance the White House goal of marginalizing the loudest and most effective voices of opposition.

    Just like it makes sense that the sun is the main driving force behind temperature, I think probably the steady stock market decline, and general economic decline, is most to blame for Obama’s rather steady loss of support from his other than the mindlessly devoted supporters. Voices from the “far right” are probably not having as much effect as they might like to think, but if not for them, there’d be essentially no real sense of opposition in this country.

    Just as most of us believe that without Sarah Palin, John McCain would have fared far worse, I think the same probably applies to all those “shrill and extreme” voices on the radio, when it comes to the relative fortunes of the GOP in general. They really weren’t doing very well in terms of actual congressional power, until Rush and a few others came on the scene in the early 90′s and provided an alternative voice in the extremely left-tending media.

    Be careful what you wish for.

  4. TomAnon says:

    thanks Gary. I was just about to write something like that. May I add that the recent upswing Obama’s poll numbers comes in the midst of Bull rally within a Bear Market. The poll numbers can only go down.

    Another thought has been swirling around in my mind is that with the dismissal of Wagoner and the Gov takeover, the Gov. now has an automobile company to make all their Green Cars for them. Wrap this up with Cap’nTrade and you have a recipe for crappy little “green” cars and exorbinant gas prices through taxation to fund the development of them. Nice tidy little trick there ehh?

  5. crosspatch says:

    What is most interesting is the flattening of the trend in “Strongly disapprove”. There was a fairly linear move from 15 to 30% that has now flattened out. BUT these data only show the strongly approve and strongly disapprove, not overall approval. The number I would follow along with is this one:

    Overall, 58% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance so far. Forty percent (40%) disapprove.

    So there is a +18 in overall approval. Those numbers probably tell more of the story since the strongly opinionated seems to be the kool-aid drinkers of both sides. I would expect most of the independent voters to be in that “overall” category than in the “strongly” opinionated category.

    Also, those numbers don’t have any reflection of Obama’s recent moves against the auto industry which has sent the stock markets reeling (again) today.

  6. Frogg says:

    I think this poll is simply tapping in to the same anger people have over bailouts, AIG bonus’, etc that has been brewing for the past few weeks. Once people have some time to really think about what happened, and grasp what it implies, I think this acceptance may drop.

  7. Terrye says:

    AJ:

    I think you are seeing things that are not here. A change in numbers of a few points one way or the other do not mean much. If Obama is +4 one day and +9 and then +8 whatever, it is all too close to make a big difference.

    I am sure that people are upset about the big bonuses and all that, but I also think that as time passes and it becomes more and more apparent just how much the Democrats have to do with the AIG bailout etc some of these numbers will change. But it will take time.

    I think taking over GM as if he were Hugo Chavez rather than the President of the United States might end up being a bad move for Obama. Time will tell.

  8. Terrye says:

    I read today that 84% of the money donated by AIG to politicians, went to Democrats, like Chris Dodd.

  9. Terrye says:

    I just saw this in a comment section over at Hot Air:

    Obama’s Approval Rating Slips Considerably Among Independents
    Posted Mar 23, 2009

    A total of 47% of independent voters approve of the way Obama is handling his job and 46% disapprove. In February, 53% of independents approved and 39% disapproved.

  10. Mike M. says:

    AJ, I think there will be a big difference between sacking the heads of failing companies and Obama’s long-term job performance. The former is a sensible reward for failure. The latter…time will tell, but the trendline is clearly downward. The Democrat Depression is only beginning.

    And foreign/defense policy hasn’t blown up yet.

  11. Terrye says:

    Well I wonder what will happen if North Korea launches a missile with their Iranians friends looking on.

  12. lurker9876 says:

    If NK launches a missile, my guess is that Obama will do nothing or very little.

    Obama’s extended himself that he won’t have much to go after NK.

    Obama may learn some hard lessons or he won’t.

  13. GuyFawkes says:

    Terrye:

    First you wrote:

    “A change in numbers of a few points one way or the other do not mean much.”

    And then you wrote:

    “A total of 47% of independent voters approve of the way Obama is handling his job and 46% disapprove. In February, 53% of independents approved and 39% disapproved.”

    So, if your first statement is true, doesn’t that mean your second statement is meaningless?

  14. Terrye says:

    Guy:

    That was my whole point. These polls go up and down a few points all the time. However, it is also true that Obama has fallen more than 20 points from his high two months ago and 20 points is not a few points. Until and unless we see some bigger changes one way or another things are really pretty much flat.

    BTW, 55% of the country still thinks we are headed in the wrong direction. I remember when Bush was president people used a number like this to make the point that the president was not leading.

    I also saw a poll back in Bush’s time that stated only 15% of the people think the president is the guiding force in the economy, 46% said Congress. The rest were divided between neither and unsure.

    So I guess there is a poll to support almost any position if you look hard enough for it.

  15. Terrye says:

    BTW, it was Obama’s party that put those big bonuses in there, so maybe the larger question is when will the national media be honest with people who is actually running what. After all, there was also a poll that stated the majority of the Obama supporters thought the Republicans had been running Congress in the last two years of Bush’s tenure.

    So, if the people actually come to understand and realize it was the Democrats who pushed the subprime loans, the Democrats who spent most of the money, the Democrats who took the money from AIG and made sure they got their bonuses…some of these polls might start to show real changes.

    Fat chance that will happen. The media lies for Obama.They do it all the time and they will continue to do it until and unless it effects their ratings, their money and their power base.

  16. conman says:

    Terrye,

    First of all, what is the obesession with polls – do you not realize that the election is over? Shouldn’t we all focus on the policy issues rather than track the daily polls like we are reliving the campaign. As you said, the day-to-day swings in polls are meaningless unless its an election year. Most people don’t spend all of their time focusing on meaningless data.

    Second, you can drop the media bogeyman line. At some point you will have to realize that you can’t blame EVERYTHING on the media. Haven’t you noticed that Obama has taken some heat of late from the MSM? Do you not watch Fox news – they regularly characterize Obama as the devil reincarnated. Consistently being in the minority opinion does not mean that you are so much smarter than the majority and they are just being tricked into believing the media BS. Maybe it means that most people simply think you are wrong and that perhaps some of those people are actually smarter and more informed than you.

    Third, it is arguable whether or not the “Republicans had been running Congress in the last two years of Bush’s tenure.” I say that partially tongue-and-cheek, but the Democrats in Congress were so pathetic that in many respects the minority Republicans did run the show. Do I need to remind you of the infamous withdrawal from Iraq, limiting NSA powers, etc. – all of which the Democrats eventually caved on?

    Fourth, please provide an example of lactual egislation to support your statement that the Democrats pushed the subprime loans once they got power in 2006. Subprime loans have been around long before 2006 and were pushed by both parties well before that. Plus, this economic crises is much more complicated than just subprime loans that occured between 2006-2008, or even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So give up the simpleton slogans, nobody but your fellow kool-aid drinkers buy it any more.

    Lastly, just because you “read” somewhere that 84% of AIG’s contributions went to Democrats doesn’t mean its true. Here is an article critical of the Democrats that puts it at 69% http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?cycle=A&type=P&id=D000000123. I bet you could find all sorts of different numbers out there if you look hard enough. AIG did give more to the DNC in 2008 – want to know why? Because AIG successfully predicted the Democrats would be the party in power. That is what they all do – go with the projected winner, regardless of who it is. That’s why they gave more to the RNC in previous years when they were on the rise.

  17. kathie says:

    Why so angry Conman…….you can make a point without being demeaning. Just state what you think. Terrye has an opinion or a thought, she never claimed to be smarter then God. You probably aren’t smarter then God either.