Apr 03 2009
Why There Are No Jobs
The latest unemployment report is out and its shows what I expected – continuing erosion of the job market.
8.5% and rising. So why hasn’t the Spendulus bill programs kicked in and starting creating all these wonderful new jobs the Democrats in DC promised? Simple, they will not be activated for many months to come. As the CBO stated when the so called “Stimulus bill” was being rammed through Congress by the Democrats, the job creation elements cannot kick in for months:
The budgetary impact of the bill stems primarily from three types of transactions: [1] Direct payments to individuals (such as unemployment benefits), [2] reductions in federal taxes, and [3] purchases of goods and services (either by the federal government directly or indirectly via grants to states and local governments). CBO estimates that impacts from the first two categories of transactions would occur fairly rapidly. In the third category, CBO estimates slower rates of spending than historical full-year spending rates in 2009 for a number of reasons:
Time even put out a nice graph of how delayed the job creation would be:
So it is no surprise the job market is still losing ground, the real stimulus is not going to show up in any meaningful amounts this year.
Below is a compilation of the status of stimulus spending across some major federal departments/agencies (click graph to enlarge). The graph is a measure of how much money is going out to create jobs. Bottom line as of the end of March: zero dollars out the door. Most of the money is not even ‘obligated’ to specific programs or projects.Â
I will attempt to update the chart on a monthly basis as the unemployment numbers come out so everyone ca see how impotent the so called Stimulus bill was. The reports used to generate the graph above can be downloaded for Defense, Energy, Interior, State, Transportation and NASA. Note:  many of these reports were in MS Excel format, and I did add the summations of the columns in order to make the graph, so they are not in their pristine form.
Our jobless rate is still less then Europe’s standard rate of unemployment in good times. As more people are unemployed, more tax payers money is spent taking care of them, taxes are raised to pay for the care, and the cycle keeps turning.
This is why, before we get too deep, lowering taxes on businesses is the real stimulative answer, an idea the Dems will never consider because those who have money must be punished and made to be fair. The poor Europeans, what happens to their economies when American’s can’t afford their products, can’t afford to cover their asses militarily? The world can claim that we are arrogant, militaristic, rich beyond words, uncaring of the have-nots, and too bossy, but as the engine that makes their economies work, they may come to rue their new friend.
WSJ is reporting that unemployment expected to reach 10% by end of year. I think it was a mistake for the Obama stimulus plan not to front load job creation aspects and put a huge dose of that into the economy right away.
Also, FoxNews has an indepth poll out on the economy. The anger about Government spending is growing. Most aspects of the Obama economic plan has a huge disapproval rate–even high numbers from Dems.
for example”
“A slim 51 percent majority thinks the Obama administration is “up to the job” of fixing the nation’s economy and 43 percent think the administration is “in over its head.”
Treasury Secretary Geithner alone inspires less confidence: 51 percent think he is in over his head, while 31 percent say he is up to the job.
The size of the budget and the projected deficits concerns many: 69 percent worry the national debt is out of control, and a similar number — 67 percent — are concerned the government will spend too much to help the economy.”
Article about poll analysis here:
FOX News Poll: Worst Is Yet to Come on Economy
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,512208,00.html
The states with the fastest grown in unemployment are the states with the largest recent increases in minimum wage. The largest employer in this nation is the small businesses that hire only a few workers. These are also the businesses that hire the most minimum wage workers. When you increase the minimum wage, you push more people from employment to unemployment.
A small business can’t afford to hire that kid to sweep the shop floor at $8.50 but might have been able to afford it at $6.50
Say minimum wage is $6.50. Say I have four employees. Say two make 6.50, one makes $8.00 and one makes $12.00. Now they raise the minimum wage to $8.00. I need to bump the lower two up to $8.00. I also need to bump the middle guy up a little, too, because otherwise he isn’t getting paid any more than the more junior employees, so now he goes up to $9.50 and the senior guy needs to go to 13.50 to keep his relative difference. So … I am now paying $6.00 per hour more for the same labor force as before … oh, and my half of their social security withholding just went up .. so make that $6.50 an hour more. So now I am paying in additional labor costs about what it would have cost me to hire a kid to sweep the shop floor. That minimum wage increase just cost the local economy a job.
So far, employers are watching Big Brother fire CEOs, dictate pay and bonus, create harassment and death threats for the “overpaid”, pass confiscatory taxes, extort companies into taking the government on as a partner and take over corporations for the “greater good.” And yet employers are not willing to create new jobs? Gee. It beats me!!
The most bucks hit just in time for the midterm elections…
Nothing to see here……………….
Another Blow to Obama’s Budget Assumptions [Rich Lowry]
Rep. Kevin Brady, the ranking Republican on the Joint Economic Committee, on the new unemployment figures out today:
The job figures reported today add to the growing body of evidence indicating that the Administration’s economic forecast is much too optimistic. The unemployment rate is already significantly above the Administration’s forecast for all of 2009.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTNmYzFlYjMxYjFjZjMzZTgxZWQxMzRmYThlNTYwOGY=
And today the Governor of New York said the shootings today was
“the worst tragedy in the history of the state”. What a moron. In fact, Democrats seem to be led by emotion unencumbered by the the thought process.
Dems and Union Supported Card Check
Bringing the Government Motors success model
To a small business in your city soon!
AJ:
Dude – your graphs are all screwed up again. Check your URLs.
kathie:
“Our jobless rate is still less then Europe’s standard rate of unemployment in good times.”
And that’s a good point. But let’s ask a few questions beyond that:
If you are unemployed in America, do you get health insurance? Unless you can afford it (and how can you with no income) – no.
If you are unemployed in Europe, do you get health insurance? Yes.
So, if you got laid off in the US, and you have (just for an example) two special needs kids (which I do), what are your options?
And if you’re in Europe, with two special needs kids, do you even WORRY about it?
Please, you hard-core conservatives – please justify to me why the treatment of my own children with special needs should depend upon whether I’m able to get/keep a job in an economy that has a current 8.1% unemployment rate?
Guy:
Dude, no they are not, if they are they are screwed up all over the place. Obama should have taken the blue dog plan to spend a lot less money, but spend it now, this year. But noooo, he could not remake America if he did that.
And I am not a hard core conservative Guy. I just remember Carter and the hyper inflation, and high interest rates and high unemployment numbers and considering the way more and more of these polls are looking…it is not just the hard core conservatives who are having a problem..
And if you are unemployed in the United States you can get help with health care…I work in the field and the idea that people are dying for a lack of health insurance is stupid. And by the way if you think the Europeans have such a great system, why not emigrate rather than drag the rest of us into some European style system we do not want.
And by the same token Guy, Obama says we can not heal the economy etc until we spend a few trillion on government health care and yet government health care did not keep Europe and the UK from going into the same recession we went into.
Guy, try the SCRIP’s program for your children. There is always Medicaid to help you along. And if you are really in need, there are a zillion other programs, all you need to is look and ask for help. My brother in law, who lives in Canada, tore his achilles tendon playing tennis. He was taken to the hospital, sent home with pain killers and told they would call when an operating room became available. Though he made many calls on his own, as he was government connected, it still took only 5 days to schedule an operating room. Thank goodness his wife worked from home and could help him to the bathroom and get meals……..that is change we don’t need. To say, if you don’t have a job you have no back up for medical care is a big fat lie, you know it and so do I. It seems that the only people who don’t know that there is plenty of care available are, are those who want to put their life in the hands of the government. I guess that they really believe that Obama’s words of concern for your well being translate into real care when the rubber hits the road. Look around the world and you will see how good intentions always meet reality, and it doesn’t look that good.
“So, if you got laid off in the US, and you have (just for an example) two special needs kids (which I do), what are your options?”
There are a lot of options that many people aren’t aware of and it also depends on where you live. In California your children would probably be covered under MediCal. Also, there is a separate health insurance program available to school-aged children in California with premiums ranging from free to a modest amount for low/no income families.
There are also options such as Catholic Relief Services and other community and faith-based organizations which are available to anyone regardless of faith. The difference is that rather than sending in some form, you actually have to show up and talk to a human being. You will be expected to do things to improve your situation yourself while you are receiving help.
But the most important thing is getting back to work. If you can’t find a job, have a look at this.
What upsets me so much is people get in a jam and start wringing their hands and getting upset that someone doesn’t come running to their rescue.
If you are out of work and have special needs kids, the LAST thing you should be doing is spending time commenting on blogs. That is a huge waste of time if you have a family dependent on you and might be an indication of why one is in such a position to begin with. In that situation, one’s time is even more valuable than when they are working.
About two years ago my wife died and left me to raise two elementary school aged kids on my own. A year ago the company I worked for went belly-up and I was out of a job. It is stressful and it can be hard to stay motivated but issues like that CAN be worked through with determination. The key is to think “outside the box” and open yourself to jobs you might have never thought of before.
The only think you are “entitled” to is a free trip around the sun each year.
Oh, and Guy … this post is particularly important. If you are unemployed, you are now a “freelancer” even if you don’t realize it. And a look at the kp.org website might provide you with medical options that are cheaper than your COBRA if you are recently unemployed.
And it is also true that when it comes to losing your home or your job or dealing with difficult things in this life…your politics are not the issue.
Conservatives get laid off just like anybody else.
I live in a small town in a rural area. My doctor just packed up and left and my company changed their insurance. That means that if I do happen to want to use my insurance I have to drive more than 50 miles to get a doctor who will take this insurance. And the cost of that insurance went up again recently too. And the deductible is $3,000 anyway.
CHANGING THE SUBJECT.
So Americans get called arrogant, derisive, and something else I can’t remember, by the President of the United States on foreign soil…..in return he gets NATO countries to agree to send 3,000 personnel on short-term deployments, to help stabilize Afghanistan before elections in August. An additional 1,400 to 2,000 will provide training for Afghanistan’s national army and some money. And the President of France, he just loves our new guy and our new tone. I AM SO HAPPY TO BE LOVED, AND ADMIRED BY EUROPE. They have given so much! As Krauthammer said, they have been sucking off our tit for 60 years. I say, why change now! I wonder why Rummy was mad? I think he has studied, and remembers history, unlike the youngsters of the world today.
Another reason why there are no jobs. Read that article carefully. Fish over families. Rulings by judges to save a fish nobody eats is causing 50% unemployment in some communities in California.
It is stupidity gone epidemic.
I saw a lawyer on Cavuto recently who talked about a corporation he reps. He said the company is holding tight, not doing anything to build its business, because they don’t know what’s going to happen. They said that the climate is so uncertain that they felt it was better to hold tight instead of taking a risk right now.
The lawyer said it was unusual for a business to be that cautious but that it only proves how scared businesses are right now — scared of losing everything.
…