Apr 07 2009
Will The Right Learn Their Lesson? – Updated
Update: I have always been a conservative independent. I came close under President Bush to finally joining a party again (was a democrat growing up). But the far right and their backstabbing of Bush reminded me of their backstabbing of Reagan – which reminded me too much of the far left ,which caused me to  I parted company with and political parties in general. I know the last two years of the purity wars caused a lot of conservatives to leave the GOP and go independent – The Anchoress being a prime example of the best and brightest leaving the sinking ship.
The far right is now turning off some heavy hitting conservative voices with the wild conspiracy theories and unwillingness to point the finger of failure at themselves where it belongs. Case in point, Charles Johnson, the man who broke RaThergate:
This turn toward the extreme right on the part of Fox News is troubling, and will achieve nothing in the long run except further marginalization of the GOP—unless people start behaving like adults instead of angry kids throwing tantrums and ranting about conspiracies and revolution.
Seems conservatism has a lot farther to go until it hits rock bottom. Â – end update
For all those on the far right still hoping America will suffer greatly under our new President America has a message for you:
The latest New York Times poll is loaded with good news for the Obama administration and news that would be devastating for the GOP if it were ever able to penetrate the conservative-media echo chamber.Â
…
But it’s the political numbers that are truly striking. Obama has a 66 percent approval rating, which is the highest this poll has recorded, while the GOP’s favorability is at 31 percent, the lowest the poll has recorded in 25 years of asking the question. Arguably more remarkable still is that, asked whether Obama or the GOP Congress would be more likely to make “the right decisions about the nation’s economy,” respondents broke for Obama 63 percent to 20 percent. That means that even within the 31 percent rump that holds a positive view of the GOP, at least a third trust Obama’s instincts on the economy equally or more.
63-20. Also known as 3 to 1 against. The future political viability of the far right is hanging on whether they pay attention to what America is telling them. And that is they are the least popular political option at the current time – and heading downward. 20% never won anything in politics, except the all time loser awards. Will they ever stop digging?
AJ, look at the demographics of that poll. They WAY oversampled Democrats, even more than they usually do.
A poll the month before was:
Democrats 36% and Republicans 26%
So they create the illusion that the popularity is rising by adjusting the ratio to more heavily sample Democrats.
Rasmussen put out on April first that their survey of party identification among the population is:
33.2% 38.7% 28.1%
So NYT/CBS way oversampled Democrats and Independents and undersampled Republicans by about 16%. That is going to give a poll result that does NOT reflect the opinion of the overall population.
Oops, that above Rasmussen party identification is R-D-I … so they undersampled Republicans by only 10% … still a significant number and could make a 20 point difference in their poll (-10% for Obama, +10% against means a 20-point change).
NYT/CBS are creating fantasy.
CP: You can adjust the demographics and it won’t do much. It could move the 63-20 to 58-25, but that ain’t much.
And after 2008 and 2006 I have learned my lesson about the polls. Not going down that denial path again.
Oh for heavens sake AJ, what has happened to you?
that poll was ridiculous. They actually dropped 42 Republicans from the poll to change their weighting from 8% to 16% advantage to Democrats. In the last election Republicans were 7% behind Democrats in party ID, not 16%. Plus if you look at the other polls at Real Clear Politics Rasmussens was 58% approval rating, and every other poll was closer to Rasmussens than it was to NYT/CBS which was the outlier.
Maybe they are hoping for a bailout and thus are sucking up.
I am not a far right person, in fact I would consider myself center right, but this poll from CBS is far different from virtually every other poll that shows Republicans either stable or gaining strength and Democrats losing party rating.
And as far as far right is concerned, to hear the Obamabots tell it that is exactly who the Tear Party people are.
So maybe you should look at the internals before you make a comment about the veracity of a CBS poll.
No AJ, it does do a lot to mess with the demographics. If you were to do a poll in which Republicans outnumbered Democrats 2 to 1 do you think the results would be the same?
This is just like the Obama is doing a great thing cutting the navy post. Just this morning I see a post about an American cargo ship taken with 21 Americans on board. The US Navy is like the Sheriff of the sea. We are the only thing that makes it possible for trade to go on. If our navy is cut, the pirates and thieves and terrorists will have no one to stop them. The Brits used to do this, but now it is our job.
As for this poll, all you have to do is look at it to know it is different from every other poll out there and if these numbers are true AJ, it does not mean the people are responding to the far right at all, it might mean they are responding to the people you do like…such as Sarah Palin. Or are you going to turn on her too?
This is not about denial. Gallup and CBS gave Obama a huge victory that did not materialize. Rasmussens was right on the money. I will stick with them because the only way to verify a poll is with an election and so far they have been consistently correct on who would win and by how much. And they have Obama and his policies with much less support than this and they have Republicans gaining or staying even when it comes to support since the election.
This poll is crap. That has nothing to do with denial.
Ed Morrisey, who is no fool, has a good post on this.
AJ:
I tend to agree with Terrye, what has happened to you? Lately you have been on the side of liberals more often than not.
A few points do matter. Being at 58 versus 63 is a big deal. At this time during GW Bush’s terms, I think he was above 60. So that tells me Obama the orator (nothing else) is actually a little less popular than Bush. Go figure.
Guess I’ll have to adjust to that universal health care plan coming down the road – or is it the mandated salaries – or is it the higher taxes – I forget which one is first. Oh well.
Here are the poll numbers from GWB versus Obama. A few points do matter (this is from March 8, 2009).
http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2009/03/08/bush-vs-obama-poll-numbers-march-2001-gallup-gwb-69-rasmussen-obama-56-gwb-up-13/
GWB – 69%
BHO – 56%
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Here is another –
http://americaswatchtower.com/2009/03/13/obamas-poll-numbers-are-lower-than-bushs-were-after-50-days/
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Yes he still enjoys an average 60% approval rating, with Rasmussen having him at 56%, but it has fallen drastically in the seven short weeks that he has been president.
His approval rating after 50 days in office is about average historically and it is actually below President Bush’s approval rating after 50 days.
This is significant considering the manner in which President Bush came into office after one of the closest elections in American history. (See the election of 1800 for an interesting and close presidential election.) The fact that Obama’s approval rating is lower after 50 days than the approval rating that Bush had shows me that people are not sold on Obama.
I’ll say it again……..
Gees AJ, you don’t have to be a right wing nut case to be scared of the direction Obama might be taking the country. Well you don’t know for sure what that direction is, because all the balls are up in the air and we’re not sure where they are going to land. I’m not surprised that most people think Obama’s the ants pants reincarnated……….because the media sure does. What the media tells us must surely be true, right? I think the media does a big disfavor making Obama the untouchable because my lying eyes are looking and I’m thinking, what are they trying to hide……..that’s not what I saw, that’s not what I heard. So now I’m going to question everything. Would I have said what Rush said, probably not, but I certainly have the same concerns. I don’t want socialized medicine, I don’t want cap and trade, thinking we are going to power this country on solar and wind, and I think his spokesman is a real jerk. Someone needs to push back and hard. That doesn’t make me a right wing nut case!
Kathie and Bob,
I know Obama has us heading on the wrong direction on many fronts. The problem is he is winning the PR battle because of the lose cannons on the far right. In essence, it is the hot heads keeping him and the Dems in power!
My point is we need new, sane conservative voices to change our direction.
And there is nothing wrong pointing out and supporting our new President when he goes in the right direction, like I noted with Iraq and the NSA-FISA stuff.
People need to face up to when they are failing by keeping Obama’s support levels up. They are as much a problem as Obama himself.
Time to pull out those mirrors folks. Analysis is a brutally honest and humbling process. Something scientists and engineers are used to.
I am an independent – I am not on anyone’s side. Losing Charles Johnson is a clear sign folks need to accept and deal with. Stop shooting the messenger.
Terrye,
I strongly suggest you go back to the Electoral College total for your baseline – it was a wipe out.
My thoughts are on a different line than most of those in this thread – I think popularity is very easy to buy, for a while, as long as you are willing to print money and make no hard decisions. Everyone can have everything, all the time! That’s the best description of our current financial policies. Remember, the primary reason for running massive deficits is because at the time it always looks like the only easy way out of very hard decisions. Forcing people to make hard and painful choices will never be popular.
But the real point is that this never works out in the long run – in fact, this guarantees disaster. If deficit spending guaranteed prosperity, why isn’t Italy the richest nation on Earth?
The pied piper was the most popular man in town for a while.
Of course he’s winning the PR battle…….have you watched the news lately. Of course Bush lost the media battle, how do I know I just watch the news. Do you see in the news that Obama is keeping 50 thousand troops in Iraq after 19 months, that all the illegal spying, and wire taps, and torture, and black holes that the terrible Bush did, did you know that Obama is keeping his options open on all? Did we see a headline that Obama caused 59 deaths in Afghanistan last month and more in Iraq? Is Obama fighting terrorism pretty much like Bush, but calling everything a different name……pretty much. I think that is a good thing! If the media wants Obama to look like a big man by making Bush look small, and people buy it, it is a crying shame. One comment that got my attention, I think it was the Guardian, it said, Obama got a rousing reception in Iraq on his most recent visit, Bush got a shoe thrown at his head. See anything wrong with that kind of reporting. The fact of the matter is that Bush did the heavy lifting to keep this country safe, and got bloodied all the way. Obama is now wallowing in the lime light and getting all the praise. In my book it teaches the wrong lessons, heros are bad guys, heavy lifters are the bad guys, those who stick their necks out to do what is right will get it chopped off. Bush went to Europe after 3,000 Americans were killed and asked NATO for support in Afghanistan. Well mostly he got a big fat no. Obama goes to Europe and gets a little bitty no, but made a wildly successful impression for all of America to see. The free and the brave is just a big PR stunt, and I feel sick!
AJ, I think you’re about 50% right.
Any political movement will inevitably have some over-the-top extremists. The key is to keep them from becoming the face of the movement. Which conservatives are not doing…partly because over-the-top spikes TV ratings. Not that the liberals are doing any better.
But this does NOT invalidate conservatism. Solid conservative principles of personal liberty and personal responsibility are precisely what this nation needs. The key is finding leaders who can clearly express the positions, and explain the reasons for them, with relentless logic.
Let the Left wallow in frothing-at-the-mouth emotion. Conservatives are better than that.
Might it occur to us that perhaps the Republican Party’s image would be EVEN WORSE, were it not for the relatively small footprint of the “far right” media and the job it does informing people and providing an alternative POV to what would otherwise be absolutely NOTHING but TOTAL FAWNING? Is there really a reliable cause and effect relationship between their audience numbers and GOP poll numbers?
Or might the trend be more accurately attributed to the newfound boldness of the Bush/Iraq war-deranged liberal BULK of the media in their promotion of, and covering up for, left-wing candidates, and their savaging of anything Republican/conservative?
Sarah Palin comes to mind. Was her decline in approval really due to just herself? Was it because of the almost universal, overwhelming positive support of right-wing talkers? Or was it perhaps more to do with the steady dour drumbeat of the Brian Williamses, the Katie Courics, the Tina Feys, the John Stewarts, the Olbermans, the Matthews — and the twinkle-eyed Obama love and approval emanating from Oprah, The View, Ellen, and let’s not forget — Tyra?
The latest Rassumssen poll has the generic congressional ballot nearly tied, with the GOP having actually gone ahead recently — a rare occurrence. This during a period of increased noise by, and attention to, those crazy right-wing loudmouths on the radio and TV. No doubt just a coincidence.
At the risk of being attacked and/or ignored for being a so-called “liberal” weighing in on this topic, I want to add to AJ’s point.
The problem is not that the GOP and the conservative right are out of bounds for criticizing or challenging Obama’s policies, but rather HOW they are doing it. Instead of focusing on the policy differences and articulating why they think Obama is taking us in the wrong direction, they focus on personal attacks and ridiculous conspiracy theories. Obama is a socialist, a facist, a closet Muslim, a trojan horse sent in to bankrupt the country, a weak leader because he advocates more diplomacy, a pure politician who would sell this country down the river for his own political gain, etc.. Even when there is objective evidence that the majority of the country voted for and still supports him and his policies, you dismiss this as a product of the left-wing media conspiracy, or slanted polls or stupid Americans fooled by Obama’s rhetoric.
What you fail to realize is that Obama campaigned and won the election on many of the same policies that the right is using as the basis for these conspiracy claims – increased government spending to stimulate the economy, health care reform, education reform, more diplomacy, pulling out of Iraq and focusing on Afghanistan, closing down Gitmo, etc. So when you accuse Obama of being a socialist, facist, etc., you are essentially calling all of the same people who voted for and still support him (a fairly large majority of the country) the same thing. So they tune out EVERYTHING you say, even the policy arguments that may be legitimate. All the conspiracy talk also causes independents and moderate conservatives to view the GOP and conservative right as truly crazy (liberals already think that is true)!
I’m further left of most people on this post, but I believe it is important to have an effective minority party to keep the majority in check. I voted for and support Obama, but I’m somewhat concerned about some of his policies – the budget, Geithner’s latest bank bailout plan. Criticism from the GOP and conservative right on these issues is legitimate in my opinion, but everyone but the conservative right is tuning them out. They hear the conspiracy theories and tune out all of the rest.
So please, someone explain to me – why can’t the GOP and conservative right simply make their points without raising all of the conspiracy theories and personal attacks? What do you think is gained by all of this conspiracy theories and personal attacks?
AJ, the undersampling is an issue. It’s not 3-1, but somewhat significant as well.
However, to be honest, this election has, in a way, radicalized me. I’ll explain more privately.
Conman,
You said: “The problem is not that the GOP and the conservative right are out of bounds for criticizing or challenging Obama’s policies, but rather HOW they are doing it. Instead of focusing on the policy differences and articulating why they think Obama is taking us in the wrong direction, they focus on personal attacks and ridiculous conspiracy theories.”
You nailed it.