Apr 09 2009
As expected (and predicted here) the same comprehensive immigration reform package pushed by President George Bush twice (2006 and 2007) will be pushed by President Obama later this year:
In broad outlines, officials said, the Obama administration favors legislation that would bring illegal immigrants into the legal system by recognizing that they violated the law, and imposing fines and other penalties to fit the offense. The legislation would seek to prevent future illegal immigration by strengthening border enforcement and cracking down on employers who hire illegal immigrants, while creating a national system for verifying the legal immigration status of new workers.
Hopefully the great work outlined in the 2007 bill, such as one-strike-you’re-out, can be retained. But as I predicted would happen, this is the end result of the scorched-Earth disaster the far right inflicted on the GOP Congress in 2006 and President Bush in 2007, sowing the seeds of a huge migration of culturally conservative Hispanics from the GOP column into the Democrat column.
Some of my 2006 Predictions. First this on from June 15th, 2006:
David Broder points out the path the Republican hard line is on with their â€˜make illegal workers felonsâ€™ nonsense.Â He reminds us of the last time the Rightwing went obsessive and equated people who are trying to make a living and feed-house-raise a family to rapists, murderes and thieves.Â They took the largest state in the country and turned it fromÂ Reagan Red to Moonbat BlueÂ nearly over night.
The immigration problem is worse now, and more of a drain than before – but the hardline solutions will only make it much, much worse.Â The amount of money it will take to round up and prosecute all the workers is staggering.Â The draining of our security forces to focus on workers and not terrorists will expose us, and the political fall out will be fierce.
The far right is playing with the one issue that can totally reverse all their accomplishments in one fell swoop. Â … Never a party to stop while they are behind, it seems we could see a similar effect this year.Â It will be sad to see.Â We will lose the tax cuts, the drive to protect this nation with dilligence and perseverence, we will see the funding of fetus farms for stem cells, we will see abortion on demand in our school clinicsâ€¦
Nailed that one, sadly. Here is another one from June 15th, 2006:
This confirms the 80-20% problem the hardliners face. Making illegal immigration a felony with deportation the punishment is opposed by 80% of the country. So, are we going to let this problem fester because the 20% cannot get all they want? Thatâ€™s up to the 20%. What they need to understand is they may be standing by themselves next fall when the conservative coalition fractures over theirÂ intractability.
The coalition did fracture and the GOP lost Congress later that year. Fast forward, and here are my comments from June 6th 2007:
It looks like the Immigration Hypochondriacs might just make permanent the current amnesty program of useless laws and inflexible idealogues which has allowed the situation to be created in the first place. Most people do not understand the stakes. Those that do, donâ€™t care. If the Immigration bill fails to pass, that will end the conservative revolution. It will have officially run its course.
Oh, but the self destruction brought on by the immigration hypochondriacs does not end there. Not only do they keep all that they ranted and raged against for years in place, they totally neuter the only national GOP force left in the country: Bush. There will be no new tax cut legislation now. Way to go dysfunctional GOP! There will be no more efforts to protect and respect human life. And so on. That is the end result of this, no more conservative agenda. If Bush fails on this bill he becomes a lame duck President and nothing passes. This is the short sightedness of the far right. If they cannot get what they want – no one gets anything.
Yep, I nailed that one too. Here are some more premonitions from June 9th, 2007:
With the immigration hypochondriac spew about how un-American it is to provide a path to legal status here for illegal workers, by paying fines and back taxes and staying away from crime, they have sent a signal to the Hispanic population – both immigrant and recent citizens. A signal that is unmistakable because the rhetoric from the right is seen as condoning a second hand status to Americaâ€™s recent immigrants. I donâ€™t care what the so called intentions are of the immigration hypochondriacs, I see the results. I see legal and illegal violent immigrants left on the street (and about the excuse “oh they werenâ€™t going to be picked up anyway” – they will under current law???). I see the largest minority voting block reacting – and moving towards the Democrats. Â
So letâ€™s recap on how the heros of America fixed things up here. They left all these criminals on the street, they called Bush a traitor, andÂ they chased the largest growing block of voters to the Democrat side. Not to mention losing a lot of conservative independents who will not jump off the cliff with them. And I get the feeling these folks are just getting started!
This one from September of 2007th was in the midst of the Dems eating crow over The Surge success as Iraq started turning around:
But the GOP, by letting hotter heads control the topic, have not and will not be able to take advantage of the Democrats mistakes because they have made their own mistakes and in a critical area that is pivotal to winning elections.
These kinds of numbers portend an even bigger bloodbath for the GOP than they saw in 2006. One just needs toÂ look at the polls leading up to the 2006 electionÂ to see the writing on the wall. The GOP is not gaining support because they are seen as more as dangerous or wrong for this country than the Dems. Otherwise they would be seeing a benefit from the Dems debacle.Â Michael Gerson notes in WaPoÂ where the shift has come, and it comes from two groups reacting to the same issue. The shift is from moderate conservatives (which means people like me) and the hispanic community – which can move 5-10% of the vote away from the GOP in a flash
And it was a bloodbath. So now President Obama and the Democrats will likely pass the same general bill President Bush and those nasty moderates attempted to pass twice. And they will get the political boost the GOP should have gotten if its ‘principles’ weren’t so far out in the fringes.
Not only will the Hypochondriacs lose on this issue, they will have destroyed the conservative movement and all its gains since Reagan. That is political FUBAR in anyone’s book. Folks can find all my posts over the years on this matter here.
Addendum: I meant to note some other harsh realities, some good and some bad. The good news is the Amnesty Hypochondriacs are going to experience their full impotency. There never has been a ground swell of resistance to the general elements of the comprehensive immigration bills of 2006 and 2007. They cannot threaten the minority with further irrelevance. America is not against law abiding immigrants, especially those here for many years and integrated into their communities
The bad news is the moderates who wanted reasonable controls are also not at the table. America wants something done with the violent and criminal elements (not theÂ misdemeanorÂ violations of working without proper papers). Without the ‘moderate’ conservative influence we may get a solution that is too lenient on these hard core criminals. The Dems have the margins to reject anything the GOP proposes right. Baby and bath water have now been tossed out, and we have what we have.