May 04 2009
True Conservative Toomey Truly In Trouble
Well, this is no surprise:
A Quinnipiac University poll found Specter would defeat a conservative Republican who is in the race, Pat Toomey, if the election were held today by 53 percent to 33 percent.
But the picture was much closer if a popular former governor of Pennsylvania, Republican Tom Ridge, were to jump into the race.
The poll found Specter leading Ridge by only a margin of 46 percent to 43 percent.
So why is Ridge more competitive? He is, of course, a moderate Republican (see here for one example). One of those stinking RINOs the far right always growls about.
It is quite clear to everyone that the far right is out of favor with the electorate. The ‘true conservatives’ (as Sean Hannity calls himself, I did not make up the moniker) think the country is just waiting for their return to power. They could not be more wrong – from what I can see no one is shedding a single tear at their demise.
If conservatism is to arise from the ashes of the far right, it will have to be in the form of a more centrist conservative movement. It will be in the form of someone fresh and new who is a moderate reformer. Someone like Sarah Palin or Rudy Giuliani.
Update: Only fools on the right would take swipes at Governor Palin, who drew record crowds and owns the title of most watch Presidential-Vice Presidential debate in all history. She was the only person who could compete with Obama, and still the tired old GOP just cannot accept her as the new face of the party:
In the latest instance of a high-profile GOP member taking a passing swipe at the party’s 2008 vice-presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Governor and GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney jokingly dismissed Sarah Palin’s inclusion on Time’s list of influential people in an interview broadcast Sunday.Â
He asked, was “the issue on the most beautiful people or the most influential people?â€
Romney could not hold a candle to Palin on the stump, but there he goes with a demeaning comment insinuating she is all looks and no substance. How will this make inroads with the women’s vote?Â
Palin, to her credit was much more classy:
“I think there are 100 influential Republicans alone who have tremendous ideas and I hope that we can all work together to accomplish what we believe is best for America,†Palin said through a spokeswoman.
Who better reflects the proud American family? No contest. The GOP is making a huge mistake by not embracing Palin, instead they are cowering in front of the viscious liberal media:
Romney’s comments were striking because such grumbling is rarely expressed in public by high-ranking Republicans. Instead, GOP officials typically strive to ignore Palin, routinely leaving her off lists of the party’s rising stars even though she still retains a significant following among grassroots conservatives and may run for president in 2012.Â
The euphemistic mantra is that the party has to rebuild based on policy solutions – not the “personalities†the media insists on focusing their attention on.
Backstabbing Palin like this is why moderates and centrist bolted the conservative movement.
Update: The word is getting out – the purity wars are killing conservatism:
What makes no sense at all is the even more prevalent view in the party that fence-sitters such as Mr Specter should have been purged already – that the path back to power lies in ideological purity and a re-energised conservative base.
One thinks of the British Labour party’s reaction to Margaret Thatcher’s victory in 1979. Labour lost because it had not been socialist enough, was the party’s diagnosis: it needed to be truer to itself. Having forgotten how you win elections – namely, by occupying the middle ground – the party then lost its desire to win them. Better to be true to your principles and out of power than to compromise. True to its principles, it was out of power for nearly 20 years, and the Thatcher revolution transformed the country.
…
The party needs to frame practical, coherent, and above all centrist alternatives to what Mr Obama and his congressional allies are doing. Instead, it wants to shore up its base, chant its slogans and purge its moderates. You have to laugh. Yet this gleeful suicidal tendency is sad as well as funny. There is plenty of scope for calm, centrist criticism of Mr Obama’s bold progressive agenda. The country needs exactly this.
How long will it take the right to wake up to reality? Can they get their act together in a few months in order to stop the damage of the left, or will they screw around for 20 years avoiding reality?
Well, with all due respect, you really have to let the primary races and debates take place to see who rises and falls in polling matchups. Toomey is still an unknown to 67%. Ridge’s name recognition may not endure. And, Specter may not even be the Dem party victor, which raises another interesting question. If Spector can’t win either the Repub nomination nor the Dem nomination…..does that mean moderates can’t get elected to either party?
Frogg,
That is silly. Of course this means something. It means true conservative has no prayer in the general election. And all those new Democrat Senators and Congressmen/women were centrists, not liberals.
Denial is not a winning strategy.
There are also some other things of interest going on:
According to Pollster.com who averaged the party ID polls out there:
“The most striking feature of the chart is not the drop in Republicans, but rather the increase in independent identification. The decline in Republican ID is a nearly parallel decline for the Democrats.”
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_our_party_id_chart.php
According to Rasmussen, there is a disconnect between the Beltway GOP and their supporters (including putting candidates out there who don’t represent them):
“In the 2008 campaign, Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, was seen by voters as more likely to deliver tax cuts than Republican nominee John McCain.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/is_the_beltway_gop_irrelevant
And, Republicans have been winning state elections:
A Ray of Sunshine for the GOP in State elections
“So the lesson for Republicans should be clear. Adjust the message to match voters concerns. Find articulate candidates including women and minorities. When possible, disengage from the battle between party labels and national personalities. And return to winning conservative themes of smaller government and lower taxes. ”
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/a-ray-of-sunshine-for-the-gop-in-state-races/
AJ, there you go again! Romney is hitting Palin not because he’s the horrible, unseemly Conservative. Its because he sees her as a potential rival if the next Rep. nomination! Since when is Romney a Conservative? What gave it away? His ever changing abortion stance? His disasterous health care program in Massachusetts?
I don’t understand you. What is your goal? To continue to bash Conservatives until they leave the Republican party? Republicans wont win alot elections that way! Unfortunately its people like you who are intolerant of different views. You talk grandly of a “big tent” yet you dont seem to have any room under that tent for Conservative views.
AJ, you’re drinking the Kool Aid again. Name recognition at this point is everything. You don’t need a poll to tell you Ridge vs. Toomey is a no-brainer at this point and it has little if anything to do with moderate vs. conservative,
Jim Gerlach, my Congressman, is a “moderate” who is being mentioned as another possibility. If you polled his name right now vs. Toomey, Toomey would come out well ahead simply on the basis of name recognition — and Specter would probably out poll Gerlach by a margin as great/greater than he does over Toomey.
As for moderates/centrists bolting the conservative movement because of backstabbing Palin — you’ve got to be kidding.
If you want to bash conservatives or, as you put it, “true conservatives”, whatever that means, go right ahead. But forgive some of the rest of us for thinking that you are not only intolerant and arrogant in your views, but your comments are so far off the mark that they are becoming laughable.
What you don’t know about the PA electorate is only part of the problem. As a political analyst, you are out of your league. Stick with national security and domestic spending — or do some real research instead of cherry-picking polls and commentaries that support your blatant biases.
Scarborough: Today’s GOP is Not Too Conservative It’s Too Radical (with video)
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/05/03/scarborough-todays-gop-not-too-conservative-its-too-radical
Goldwater Girl,
Bashing conservatives because they screwed up and dissed their allies and lost control of DC?
LOL! Just call them as I see them. And right now conservatism is in a deep hole, dug by those who are too good for the rest of us lowly Americans. All those cries of RINO are coming back to haunt the pure conservatives.
Just keep pretending all is going well and there is no problem on the right. 20 years is not so long to be wandering.
My only mistake in the last two elections was underestimating how badly the right had screwed up. I had hope it would turn itself around, but instead it continues to self destruct. That is not bashing anyone. When one group is consistently losing, pointing that out – no matter how uncomfortable for the losers – is not bashing!
Too funny.
AJ,
No one said all is well or is pretending otherwise … but I have no idea what you’re talking about or what precipitated your statement re: the hole “dug by those who are too good for the rest of us lowly Americans.” Wha’ts that all about?
Am glad you made only one analytical mistake in the last two elections. Unfortunately, I don’t have the time or inclination to refute all the mistakes you’ve made on this topic since April 30, but you are definitely on a roll.
Goldwater Girl,
I have been clear for years that the purity wars waged by the far right were destroying the governing coalition of conservatives. To go after moderates and centrists simply shoved a majority of the coalition away, and brought on the resultant thrashing at the polls.
Ever hear the term RINO? Is it a bridge building term or demeaning term to claim superior conservative credentials? Remember Harriet Myers, Dubai Ports, the Gang of 14, the immigration debacles, the hate leveled at President Bush by the far right? Any of this ringing a bell?
I was not wrong. Things have imploded as I predicted they would. And that leaves me wholly unimpressed with the fools and foolishness that brought about the destruction of conservatism and allowed the rise of liberalism.
Why should I applaud and admire such destruction?
The Dem issue in 2006/2008 was 1) The Iraq War; and 2) Spending like Drunken Sailors (go back and listen to talking points and debates). So, it was waging the Iraq war and overspending that allowed the rise of liberalism, wasn’t it AJ?
No Frogg,
It was the far right turning on its allies. If we had stood together we would not be defending our victory in Iraq. And the drunken spending was done by the true conservatives in Congress – though they love to blame Bush (who was waging two wars and defending us against innumerable attacks) for not stopping them.
When the right turned on Bush the people rightfully decided conservatism was a lost cause and a waste of time. I have seen this play out nationally and in the states. The minute they started eating their own with the cry of RINO the GOP lost.
AJ, I beg to differ…..we did stand together on the Iraq War. And conservatives in Congress did “spend” like “liberals”…..and we stood together screaming at them to “stop spending like drunken sailors”. Seems to me….they are finally listening.
It was moderate voters that abandoned Bush on Iraq (not conservatives).
But, you make the point conservatives have been trying to make…..
it wasn’t “conservatism” that was ruling what was going on up on the Hill…..it was “drunken power politics”.
AJ,
Do you actually read and pay attention to your readers’ comments? I’m not only one to make a distinction between Specter and Collins/Snowe. I’m not one who gets caught up in using the RINO term, but it has nothing to do with claiming “superior conservative credentials” in my mind. Then again, I don’t view the conservative “movement” as being one and the same as the Republican party.
Yes, I do remember Harriet Myers. As a strong Bush supporter then and still, I could not have been more disappointed with his selection of Myers. That’s because I wanted to see someone with some intellectual heft on the bench — not a check-the-box conserative who was a weak nominee in critical respects. As much as I admired GWB, she was not a good or solid pick. I wasn’t happy with the way Frum and company led the attack on her, but the fact that we wound up with Alito pleases me greatly. Can you honestly tell me that we would have been better off with Myers instead of Alito? If you do, then there is another LOL mistake.
And yes, I remember Dubai Ports. For that I blame the administration and a bunch of cowardly Republicans — moderates, conservatives and “true conservatives.” They completely missed or misread the public mood and failed to jump on it and explain why this was other than the way the Dems and media tried to characterize it. Am surprised that your passion on this one wasn’t directed toward a complicit media and a WH that didn’t have the stomach to defend the defensible.
These things go in cycles — just go back and read all the stores about how weak the Democratic party was after the 2000 and 2004 elections. But you seem to be stuck in some place that I don’t accept as either accurate or rational. You still can’t admit that Arlen Specter was not pushed out of the party — he jumped. On that you subject, you are definitely wrong. For many of us, his vote on the stimulus bill was the last and final straw in long, long history of unprincipled and sometimes incoherent positions. To use Jack Kemp’s death as he did yesterday is unforgivable and shameless — but that’s Arlen. I guess you think the conservatives/moderates who are jumping on him for that will drive away even more independents and centrists.
May I remind you of my admonition to you the other day that his loss to the Rs would be a plus since he would cause more problems for the Ds than he ever did for the Rs — and it’s already becoming apparent. If you think I’m the only “moderate” Republican who celebrated his departure, come and take a walk around my neighborhood.
Better, Aj… Aggressively Argumentative but not crude and insulting at the same time…
.
Just a feeling with no basis in fact…but…I “think” Americans will “instinctively” [if that’s the right word”] balance the political power… [Repub vs Dem] … as Joe Cook’s emerge into politics..[13 MILLION+ youtube views] We don’t like one party rule…
.
Wild card game changers…If President Obama’s {reckless} actions re national security result in another attack…it will be disaster for the Dems…
.
or..if as many of us think…what WILL happen is that…
.
All these trillions of $$ the gov is spending [don’t you just hate it when the President says “we” are “investing” …when it’s just the government spending money…result in hyperinflation and a trashed economy…
.
I got my free $250.oo last month for being a Social Security recipient… and…alive…Feeling stimulated and honored that America decided to invest in ME!!! I’ll bet you youngsters didn’t know about that little boondoggle did you?
Well said Goldwater Girl. I couldn’t agree with you more.
Yet, AJ… Mitt was NOT taking a swipe at Palin after all…
http://themittblog.com/2009/05/04/romney-did-not-take-a-swipe-at-palin/
Look, we need to dump Obama after one term. I don’t care if it’s Mitt, Palin, or someone new, but we WON’T be able to dump Obama if we’re constantly in a circular firing squad.
AJ:
Today Specter said that if the Republicans had spent more money on things like stem cell research Jack Kemp would be alive.
Despicable demagoguery. I am not a far right kind of person. In fact I would call myself center right, but I detest Specter. He did not even wait until Kemp was buried before he tried to use his death.
And the truth is if the Republicans in PA want to get rid of him, they have every right to do that. This guy is not just some moderate Republican like Lugar, he is a nasty little man.
I think Ridge might go for it, and if he does Specter would be in trouble. Ridge was Governor and a member of Congress, he is a native son and very popular in PA.
But the idea that somehow Specter getting the boot is an example of the right wing going too far strikes me as wrong.
Frogg:
I do think there are some people who are more concerned with purity than with winning or standing together..but I also think that there are some people who are just stinkers, and I put Specter in that category.
So yes, the right turned on Bush over Miers and immigration..but the moderates turned on Bush on the war AJ. You forget that. And a lot of people out there consider Palin to be far right herself.
[…] on the flip side he apparently had some really good comments about that Romney’s Sarah Palin comments: Limbaugh defended Palin and heralded her as the “most prominent and articulate voice” […]
Ridge may well have the edge, simply because he isn’t part of the Specter/Toomey feud.
The amusing part is Palin – she is a pretty bog-standard conservative.
The joker in the deck is national security, which I think will be a very important issue be the end of this year.