Jun 10 2009
Deeds vs. McDonnell In VA
VA Democrats, in a incredibly low turnout primary, have selected a moderate/conservative Democrat candidate to run for Governor of VA this fall:
Well that wasn’t close at all, was it? After a grueling but mostly civil campaign, Creigh Deeds pummelled Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran for Virginia’s Democratic gubernatorial nomination yesterday, triggering a fascinating general election race and a wide range of opinion on how exactly McAuliffe could fall from frontrunner to afterthought so quickly.
McAuliffe’s fall was obvious. He is not a Virginian, he is a political hack known way too well in Northern Virginia and unknown everywhere else. He also ran the dumbest political ad in recent memory (pre-kindergarten or jail later in life). It was an insult to parents across the state.
Moran is way too liberal and has the albatross of his brother’s desire to bring terrorists from GITMO into the state to create jobs. People just aren’t that desperate.Â
What really sold Deeds is he is a conservative Democrat. And he is going up against a centrist conservative in Bob McDonnell (who I support). Once again middle America is staying out of the fringes. Deeds is trying to link McDonnell to Bush (everyone knows Bush has retired and McDonnell had nothing to do with Bush). It is a lame claim, but the way for him to win is for him to paint McDonnell as a ‘true conservative’ or for McDonnell to don that mantle himself. McDonnell needs to stay away from the far right if he wants to win. This state has gone from deep red to blue in only a few short years.
Should be an interesting race to watch – who will win the hearts of centrist Virginians?
Anytime McCauliffe loses America wins.
The Dems seem obsessed with George Bush. As the Obama Unemployment grows and the Democrat Depression intensifies, I think this will come back to haunt them.
Especially when (not if) there is a major terrorist attack. Love him or hate him, Bush kept the homeland safe for seven years.
Why AJ? What did George Bush do domestically to paint him as God forbid a “true Conservative,” Was it the education bill, prescription drug program ,McCain-Kennedy immigration reform, uncontrolled deficit spending, TARP etc. etc. The tax cuts as I understand are agreeable to “Untrue Conservatives or Moderate Republicans. Why are you guys not called Moderate Conservatives? Oh sorry. That’s right. Conservative is a dirty word!! Don’t want to go there. My prediction: A conservative Democrat will beat a Moderate Republican every time! If I face an election between a Dem or Rep. I will vote the most conservative candidate. Party affiliation no longer means anything to me. I used to vote straight Republican, those days are over.
“Love him or hate him, Bush kept the homeland safe for seven years.”
Very true – but this points out a bit of psychology (not workability) that Obama has right and that the Republicans have still got wrong.
You won’t even win a campaign based on what didn’t happen. People just don’t grab onto that, and they discount it as what would have happened anyway, even if that’s not true. You have to *make* things happen, and then stand or fall on how that turns out. Bush made Iraq happen, and I believe history will judge him kindly.
Barak had made the Chrysler and GM takeovers happen, and he is causing an explosion in debt levels to truly unthinkable leves. It will take time for these things to work out – we will have the sugar high first, and then the inevitable post-sugar crash after.
Of course, even then, anyone wanting to take over will have to articulate how they will make things better, not just say “well I wouldn’t have done that!”
Although I always prefer for the two best candidates to be running against each other….
Deeds is the hardest Dem for McDonnell to beat.
Virginia has a pretty good history of electing good governors (no matter which party). I hope it falls back into Republican hands, though.
Democrats will be trying to run against Bush for decades. Anybody watching what is going on in Albany, NY where two Democrat assembly members switched parties to Republicans? The Democrats are throwing a tantrum.
In California we have a very interesting possibility with Meg Whitman the former CEO of eBay running for governor. I am leaning towards supporting her in the next election.
When a majority of the voting public actually experience the results of Obama’s policies they will recoil with a strong move to the right. An over reaction yes, but thats what we do. We always over react to problems. We go from “over exuberance” to
flat line. Obama wis the product of an extraordinary response to our economic woes. The shift to the right will be the response to the Obama economic plan. “Moderate Republicans” will morph back into Conservatives as they recognize the shift. This is what Moderates do, isn’t it? Look for prevailing winds and set a new course for the easiest ride?
Actually, I think the trend is toward Populist Conservatism.
I believe that we are going through one of the periodic polarity shifts in American politics. Believe it or not, there was a time when the Democrats were the party of national security, and the Republicans were the anti-military party. And there are bunch of other examples.
What has happened over the last twenty years is a shift of the very wealthy to the Democrat Party. I ascribe this shift to a mix of snobbery and self-interest. Snobbery in that the Democrats have traditionally been friendly to a stratified class structure, self-interest in that a highly regulated economy works to keep the rich rich. The modern Democrats are the party of the very rich, the poor, and the unionized.
But this shift has meant that the Democrats have had to abandon populism. You can’t be the party of the very rich AND the party of the working class at the same time. And conservatives have a long history of populism. Reagan being the Great Example, but not the only one. It’s the river of political power that Sarah Palin taps into.
If the Republicans can get their act together and fully exploit this, they can crush the Democrats.
One key is to draw a sharp distinction between the Working Well-to-Do (professionals, skilled craftsmen, and small businessmen) and the Truly Rich (Assets >$10 million). The former are well-paid middle-class folks – if they stop working, they become poor. The latter are the product of Daddy’s Name and Mommy’s Money – they have inherited wealth and place, and are determined to stay on top. The two groups are natural enemies.
The second is to make a big push among blue-collar workers. Stopping illegal immigration is a BIG issue. As is some sort of restriction on unlimited free trade. My own belief is that we should have unlimited free trade only between peer states. It’s one thing to have American workers compete against their Japanese and European counterparts – it’s a level playing field in terms of working conditions, and leads to the prosperity that free trade is supposed to produce. But it is quite another to force American (or European) workers to compete with a Chinese prison-labor sweatshop. That is NOT a level playing field, and blue-collar jobs get exported overseas. Which enriches the Truly Rich…and shoves middle-class manufacturing workers into lower paying positions.
It’s a big IF, though. The Repubicans aren’t nicknamed ‘the Stupid Party’ for nothing.