Jun 14 2009
Revolutionary Iran Is Crumbling
Michael Totten is doing the reporting that should have been done by a dozen world-renowned news organizations. Everything he has posted is important to know and understand about the chaos gripping Iran.
The following tape illustrates what could be a tipping point for the mad Mullahs of Iran.
The police are running from the protestors in incredible numbers. The video has long seconds of police running by, as if the man the ramparts. It is not for a long while before we realize it is a full retreat. Rumors are flying they are unwilling to take on the people. Rumors are flying the Iranian government is trying to get security assistance from nearby Arab states. Rumors are sometimes based on fact. And with the Iranian government in full Baghdad Bob mode, one can reasonably conclude the end to this may shock the world.
A line may have been crossed, especially if the word gets around about the Muslim on Muslim violence. This kind of violence against fellow Muslims is what fell the resistance in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. There is no Evil Satan doing this.
If the security forces switch sides it is all over. I don’t think there are enough fascists in Iran to control the population if goes all out in an uprising.
We may be seeing the end of the Islamo Fascist state of Iran, and the birth of a new, free Iran side by side with the free Iraq and Afghanistan. And wouldn’t that be a feather in the cap of President George W Bush.
It is very difficult to get any real information from Iran.
You might find this site useful
http://www.ncr-iran.org/
It has been around for a good time.
National Council of Resistance Iran
I think that on this time the resistors will not win.
I think also that Israel was waiting to see if the election
gave the results that they expected, which is what happened.
So now, all the bets are closed.
Unless the Army turns on the religious police and the rest of the thugocracy that is kept in power by Aminadjeb, this regime will simply kill the protestors in the street and remain in power.
If the army *does* join the people, then there will be civil war.
This regime will not go until a million gallons of blood are shed.
“Feather in the cap of George Bush” I am not so sure about this… although I wish you were correct.
The MSM will attribute it to Obama’s Cairo speech. They are already spinning this as the result of the speech – here’s the meme:
1. Obama gave the speech
2. The moderates in IRAN were emboldened by his words
3. O’s speech caused them to bravely vote for Mousavi!
4. The Mullahs panicked and changed the outcome
5. The gov’t is now so weak…
6. Ahmadinejad will have to bargain with Obama
7. World is saved – all due to Cairo speech
On Morning Joe – they were already talking like this. It took the White House that long (all weekend) to come up with this gossamer…
Sorry AJ, didn’t know where to put this. Gallup just released a poll advising that Conservatives are the largest “ideological” group in the country. I didn’t read the story because I figured it would become a bash fest but I thought you may be interested. Figured you may be interested.
Mike,
Yes, the conservative coalition is the largest group – which means those on the right who destroyed that coalition and chased out centrists conservatives screwed up royally.
I kinda thought that would be your response! At the very least, you are consistent my friend.
Mike,
Want to see the Pew poll graph showing the centrists leaving the GOP again?
AJ,
The Mullahs of Iran were having major sharing issues that the recent election finally brought out into the open.
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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IE30Ak03.html
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President Mahmud Ahmadinejad denied a report that Iran’s imports now exceed $60 billion, against an official estimate of $45 billion. This sort of discrepancy typically occurs when capital flight is disguised as imports through fraudulent invoices and similar devices. A small current-account deficit would be of little concern for a nation with normal access to world capital markets, but Iran is unable to borrow.
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That is the background to Ahmadinejad’s decree last week reducing private and state bank lending rates to 12% from 14%, that is, 5-10 percentage points below the rate of inflation. If Ahmadinejad were in the pay of a hostile intelligence service, he could not have found a more effective way to sabotage Iran’s economy. If the price of goods rises faster than the cost of money, everyone who can will borrow money to purchase and hoard goods. The result will be higher prices and reduced economic activity, and the eventual prospect of hyperinflation, which no government ever has survived. Last week’s rate reduction augmented the incentives for capital flight.
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What is happening now is that sharing dispute seems to have affected the reliability of the regime security forces in the face of a popular outburst from the Iranian public.
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If there are any truth to the rumors that some Iranian Mullah factions are trying to get more reliable security forces from ARAB STATES — Read Syra, Hezbolah an Hamas — for this intra-Mullah conflict there are a lot of things that fall out.
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The really important implication is no one faction of the many and varied Iraian Regime Security Forces are big enough to both bully the Iranian Military into putting down the Iranian public and guard their faction of Mullahs from rival Mullah’s Regime security force factions at the same time.
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That is why they want Arabs. They represent additional mecenary forces outside local politics who can be brought in to do the needed killing.
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Again, IMO, unrest in Iran will continue until either the regime falls or enough of the Mullah factions resolve to share power to gather a coalition big enough to put down the public and rival mullahs at the same time.
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The latter will happen, IMO.
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See this article at strategypage as to why:
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Why “People Power” Will Fail in Iran
March 15, 2006:
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http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20060315.aspx
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“People Power” is not a 1980s invention. Back in the 1930s, Indian democracy activists mobilized millions of people against the British colonial government. But it was admitted that, while such a movement worked against the British, it would not have worked if the colonial occupiers had been, say, German. Not today’s Politically Correct Germans, but the rather more savage, pre-World War II variety. Old school Germans, who massacred Africans protesting colonial rule, and killed millions of civilians during World War II, would not have been as accommodating to peaceful demonstrators as were the British (with a few bloody exceptions.) The old school defenders of the Islamic tyrants in Iran appear ready to carry out some sustained killings to keep their masters in power.
Quote… Mr. Amir Taheri’s article… Reading this will give you a pretty good understanding of the situation…
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Mr. Ahmadinejad’s “victory” [?] has the merit of clarifying the situation within the Islamic Republic. The choice is now between a repressive regime based on a bizarre and obscurantist ideology and the PROSPECT of real change and democratization. There is no halfway house…. etc
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124502114089613711.html
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Might be missing something … but… protesters seem to be in Tehran only… What is happening in the countryside or smaller cities… Anyone seen any reports on that?
About that Gallup poll (Conservatives largest group)….
There have been a ton of back and forth articles and ideas from all over between the traditionalists and the reformers of the GOP. There have been some who accuse “moderates” of wrecking the party. There have been some who accuse “conservatives” of wrecking the party. But, one thing I’ve noticed is that I haven’t seen any actual polls taken of moderates to solicit why they left the GOP. Indeed, a Rasmussen poll thinks the GOP isn’t conservative enough. AJ has been open and honest about why he left the party. But, every moderate who says they left……says they left for a different reason. In fact Eisenhour’s grandaughter, Susan, said she left the party because of Bush and McCain. Colin Powell questioned McCain’s judgement because he invited Palin to his ticket. Some conservatives left the party also because of teh fiscal irresponsibility of the past. And, so on and so on.
So, the GOP (conservatives, religious right, libertarians, moderates, etc ) need to center in on the party platforms they all can pretty much agree on……update their messaging and image around those issues…..and go from there.