Jul 21 2009
Will President Obama Keep His Presidential Cool?
 
Our young and inexperienced President is about to be tested. Not by our enemies or by his political opponents. He is about to be tested by his own failures.
The DC liberals sealed their fates back in February when they passed and exaggerated the liberal stimulus bill. It was doomed for certain failure, a fact I noted in January before it was finally signed into law:
Into this historic economic storm steps the impotent Democrats and our young President, with fairy tale remedies that look like someone brought a plastic spoon to fight a modern war. The economy is driven by jobs – well paying jobs. These jobs generate the money we use to cover our debts, responsibilities and our basic needs (individually and as a country).
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The real problem is the stimulus it too little too late, and it is wasted on activities that cannot produce an immediate ’stimulus’. Instead of being something like a defibrillator giving a life saving shock to a patient, the package seems more like some hair tonic thrown around to grow back thinning hair. Whatever it does will take years and will be hardly noticeable for the near term.
The problem is the reliance on infrastructure projects to revive the economy – it is pure snake oil …
There was no way for the sluggish and bloated federal bureaucracy to even develop plans to spend money in the first 6 months, let alone actually get it out the door. It was a complete fiction, which the dems exaggerated with their claims and promises of immediate success. Remember those 25 jobs in Ohio Obama saved in March?
By mid April it was a done deal. The data was coming in and my suspicions were proven out, and it was worse than I had originally imagined:
So where is average America? GM is and Chrysler were not bailed out, they are facing bankruptcy. And the only thing the taxpayers can see is generations of debt being built up in time spans of months, when it used to be decades to see this much national debt created.
Average America is out of work or working a job well below their potential. Average America is hurting, and they are not liking what they are seeing. They could care less about the fat cats being rescued, they need to be bailed out too!Â
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Where is the bail out for America’s workers? Supposedly there was this thing called a Stimulus bill that was supposed to create (or save, as the Obama/Democrat spin always included) millions of new jobs. Well it hasn’t, and it won’t anytime soon (if ever).
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If this nation was going to go into debt to get out of this mess, it should have cut taxes to spur economic growth, like Kennedy, Reagan and George W Bush did successfully. The government should have primed the small business job creation pump and let it rip. But no, we had to try the same failed socialistic policies that have failed innumerable times across the globe. Now we are going massively into debt and getting NOTHING in return.
This picture is going to change as slowly as the federal bureaucracy crawls even at its fastest speed. Outside of the military, the Feds do not move fast at all, and tend to slow things way down. And this is the slow moving train wreck that is heading right at the Dems and Obama.
Now the train has arrived. We are in debt over our heads, the stimulus money is stuck inside the bowels of the government and the American people are fed up as unemployment keeps climbing (see here for all the latest on these factors). Obama is losing the independents, which means the centrists democrats are not too far behind. Check out the latest from Gallup on Obamacare:
Now only Democrats support Obamacare – everyone else opposes it. And that is a lot of voters.
What Obama is facing as his big test is this: can he handle rejection? Will the wonder kid float down to reality with some humility and class? Or will he lash out as he sees his entire presidency on the cusp of failure? Obama has never had to face failure, never had to face the no win scenario. As Star Trek fans know, Obama has yet to take the Kobayashi Maru test.
He is taking it right now. The country is rejecting his signature policy, his party is fracturing against his signature policy, the independent voters are bailing on his signature policy. That policy is DOA as it stands right now.
But he is also about to damage, if not cripple, is first and possibly last term in office. The frustration factor is at its peak, in a job that has more stress and angst than any other on the planet. To have the chance to make history and see it all potentially fall apart is more than most people can handle. Can Obama?
And it really doesn’t have to all actually fall apart if his health care goals don’t pass. That is not the point. It is the perception it is falling apart that shatters the will. To pass this test  requires Obama to let go, to adapt, to roll with the punches. That takes experience and confidence and skills beyond a silver tongue.Â
Is Obama going to face the no win scenario and survive to win other battles? As his temper has been peeking through more and more in the last few weeks I begin to wonder. As his efforts to twist arms have hit the panic level and still are not working, I think there is a good chance President Obama may not make it through this key test.
He is attempting to blame people who don’t agree with him. But that never entices people into changing their views. Blame and insults tend to dig in heels and bring on a backlash. Obama has to be very careful tomorrow night. He needs to follow the will of the country, not arm twist America into submission. He has made a ton of rookie mistakes, epitomized by his naive belief he could just order GITMO closed without any planning or thought. Which is why I know he is susceptible to more rookie mistakes.
Will he fall to the hubris of the office that infects so many who are new to DC and the myth of DC power? Honestly, I don’t know. But we will find out soon enough.
Update: Reader Mike M had the brilliant idea of starting a pool on when Obama might crack under the pressure. Â Mike M placed his bet on mid August. My response to Mike was:
With Congress out until September and things just getting worse and worse without any action during that time Obama will definitely be chafing by mid August!
Which means I think it highly probable Obama could lose his cool by mid August. Place your predictions in the comments section!
Anyone want to get a pool going? 🙂
FWIW, my money would be on a tantrum by mid-August. Obama has NEVER faced political defeat, and I’m betting on a full-fledged meltdown by Labor Day.
To be followed by the National Security Catastrophe.
The stimulus was very bad, but the cap and trade for House members was even worse. And, the people back home were hysterical. The Dems took a beating and I don’t think they appreciated it. So now comes another pie in the sky, feel good, get you elected, trillion dollar, impossible to sell, I love Obama, but not that much, deal. And they know they can’t answer the questions, because they haven’t written the bill, let alone read it. So now what are they going to do.
If Obama wanted to save his Presidency, he would pull a Clinton and get someone on the other side to collaborate with him, and put his name on it and say, look what I did.
Any bets?
Mike – great idea on the pool! I guess I give him a 50% chance of blowing tomorrow night (or I would not have written the post!). With Congress out until September and things just getting worse and worse without any action during that time Obama will definitely be chafing by mid August!
I think he will crack when every one goes home at the end of the month, and no bill to speak of, he will know it isn’t going to happen. BUT, we won’t know it because he will be happily or sadly vacationing on Martha’s Vineyard. No more pressers, body guards protecting the sad face.
I think this will be phased…the cool will start to crack tomorrow night. He’ll get testy. The cool will crack wider when it becomes clear that his scheme to wreck health care is DOA…say mid-August. He’ll start lashing out by that point.
Toss in the odd hurricane…and remember that Bush the Younger was partly done in by Hurricane Katrina. Most people don’t know just how many resources were mustered for anti-hurricane work last year. Obama’s inept management will show poorly in a national disaster.
But the Big Problem is foreign/security policy. The situation with the Iranian nuclear program will boil over by the end of the year at the latest. More likely by October. Any terrorist attack on U.S. soil will split things wide open.
And I have no idea what Obama will do when he panics.
Congress is getting ready to go on recess for the summer. My guess is that Obama is going to get “ill” sometime this winter, next spring and need a break from “the stress” of the presidency.
Oh, hey, have a look at these twittered comments from someone reviewing the health care bill.
I think he’ll put in an acceptable performance tomorrow night; remember, appearances like this are his one great strength.
The real problem for him is that even if it’s a great speech, it won’t have any impact. He’s already admitted tonite that the plan “needs work”, but even he doesn’t yet realize why this is the heart of his problem.
Waxman wants to work on it one way, the “progressives” want to work on it another, Blue Dogs want to trim it down, and the Senate wants to do something completely different. By not putting out a plan himself and trying to get everyone to buy into it, he has fostered the creation of several competing plans, each of which has it’s own diehard group of congressional supporters. He did this because he and his advisors thought he could advoid criticism by staying “above the fray”, but instead, he’s created chaos.
And there is now no way to bring order back out of this chaos, ESPECIALLY now that the economy is still sinking and the stimulus has failed. He never really did understand that he was gambling his credibility when he rolled the dice on that stimulus package, and now his bet has come up snake eyes.
The plain and simple truth is that there is now no way to expand insurance the way he wants without pumping in vast amounts of government money; but raising taxes to cover it will kill the economy, and running even higher deficits will also kill the economy.
There is simply no way to do what he wants without bankrupting the country, and now that people have started to realize that there is nothing he nor anyone else can ever say to erase that knowledge.
It only looked like it would work when it was a fantasy with no specifics to it; but now the toothpaste is out of the tube. And Obama is out of luck.
As far as how we will react; my bet is that he will hold it together until it really, finally falls apart and his popularity plummets. Then he’ll start trying to find someone, some group, to scapegoat.
Don’t be surprised if he sells out Israel to deflect attention. The Jews always are numero uno on the scapegoat list whenever a leftist gets into trouble.
He was already starting to show signs of being testy in the last few weeks.
He is still on campaign mode. But I’m starting to notice the difference in the last few weeks. More Americans are starting to quit listening to him.
Will the wonder kid float down to reality with some humility and class?
… you must be kidding.
The Anointed One will lose his cool around August 7 upon the differential of his approval ratings goes outside the negative margin of error.
Obamacare must die. I calculated that w/ my 85K income, I would pay 2400 for Obamacare tax and 1600 for Cap and Trade utility increase. The first place that hits hard when people lose income is retail. It is all likely that I will not buy any retail items next year if Obamacare and Cap and Trade are law.
It will be after the recess, when Congress has heard from constituents.
I agree with HCH, nothing is going to get done before recess and Congress will be in a COMPLETELY different mood when it gets back. By then the delayed economic numbers that were supposed to be released this month will have been released. The scope of how bad things really are will begin seeping in.
Heard an interesting comment on the network news. “Economy showing first signs of beginning to stabilize”. Think about that phrase for a second. It doesn’t say things have stabilized. It just says things are “showing the first signs”. Well, if you jump out of a plane you accelerate until you reach a point where air resistance wont allow you to accelerate any more … you stabilize at a fixed rate of fall. You will hit the ground long after your rate of fall has “stabilized”. These days the Democrats seem to think that a slowing of the rate of decline is somehow equal to improvement.
If these members of Congress keep getting laughed at in “town hall” meetings, there isn’t much Obama’s empty threats are going to do to keep them in line. These people’s constituents are going to trump Obama’s political thuggery if they sense their re-election is in danger.
Go take a look at Carpe Diem. He’s got a few posts up that are saying there will be no recession in 2010. Especially the one from the Fed.
He’s being sarcastic about it. Read the comments there.
Even Larry Sumner thinks the economy is on the upturn.
The sad part is that they are the ones telling Obama these positive numbers.
Obama is voting present on this one…
http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2009/07/dems-frustrated-with-obama.html
I’m betting on bobo this time around. I don’t think he really cares that much about his perceived popularity as he was a complete unknown until a year ot two ago so he hasn’t had a legacy of being popular to sustain him (ala Clinton). His own delusional beliefs that he has all the answers will allow him to rationalize away the facts that his plans are so bloated that they have no ability to sustain themselves without the aid of the private sector (i.e. higher taxes forever). Plus they can always spin that Bush really screwed things up more than anyone could have imagined and still get a lot of lefties to gobble that up. No, I don’t think he cares because he really hates this country and especially the influence of competent white males in its development.
Please let us all hope that he does not get a bad case of the “swine flu”.
That would be, how to say it, too ironic.
I’m more mainstream conservative than far right so I’m not reflexively anti-Obama. I have a friend who is far right who hates(understatement) Obama. I have been telling her that the country threw the dice with Obama. Young and untested, and my line these first six months is that he has made a ton of rookie mistakes. My nickname for the President has been the Rookie.
I’m glad to see AJ also refers to his perfomance as a rookie making a ton of mistakes. Although it is one thing to have a new employee that I can cover for until they learn not to make so many mistakes but who is going to cover for the POTUS?
My friend hates the First Lady so she calls her the wookiee. She calls the first couple the Rookie and the wookiee.