Update: seems M.I.A has taken the award for dumbest Super Bowl move of all time. Flipping the bird to America, the Super Bowl audience, the NFL and the Super Bowl sponsors is the quickest way to end a dull and mundane career. Congrats on the most spectacular flame out in recent memory. Morons Unite! – [...]

The cheering by the GOP establishment over Romney’s win in the Nevada primary is scary delusional. As I predicted last week, a Romney ascendancy to the GOP presidential candidate slot is going to take the air out of the Obama opposition and lead to an Obama 2nd term. As tests for my theory I established [...]

All you need to know about the latest unemployment numbers is here. It is the same dodgy data I have pointed to for almost a year (see here, here, here and here for example, note sometimes I forgot to update the month label on the charts, but the data is up to the last month). [...]

Romney handily won FL, and lost a lot of the Tea Party/Libertarians in the process. Good luck to the GOP this cycle, they either win big over Obama or else resurrect his presidency from the ashes of failure. If all is well Obama’s poll numbers will sink back to being around 9+% underwater, the GOP [...]

Major Update: Looks like PPP also detected a late Gingrich Surge: Meanwhile, a Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, has Mr. Gingrich with a manageable-looking 7 points deficit. And he was down just 4 points in interviews conducted on Sunday alone, according to a cross-tabulation provided to FiveThirtyEight. Well, well, well. I saw [...]

Basic assumptions are the bane of science and scientific progress. So many times a basic, innocent conclusion is cast into concrete with minimal to no supporting evidence. The greatest scientific minds are the ones who recognized when a basic assumption is wrong and needs to be changed in order to realign science with the sum [...]

Well, well, well. It seems the establishment GOP is so determined not to let the 2012 insurgent voter get a piece of their political pie they will do anything to get Romney elected. Sarah Palin – as one of the Tea Party, libertarian leaders – has not been silent on the mudslinging against Newt Gingrich [...]

Finally, we have real data showing a shift to Romney. Both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen show a clear trend in the data (comparing polls from the same pollsters over time – apples to apples). Prior claims of a shift, as I noted previously, were not correct – just lucky. So it looks like Newt is losing [...]

Yes, I deliberately mangled the Star Wars analogy. I know it is hard to detect when I deliberately do that versus my penchant for typos and dyslexic writing. My apologies – but I love strategery Today we see another lame effort by the GOP establishment to take out Newt – by calling on the Ghost [...]

It is really disturbing when your side loses its objectivity and shows signs of deep political denial. It makes them look just like liberals. For example, the Romney camps are singing “Amen!” at a bunch of new polls out. Just check this out at Hot Air: This makes three new polls showing him [Romney] either [...]

Update: Even the WSJ is beginning to see the light: That’s the real lesson of South Carolina’s Saturday primary, where Newt Gingrich, the Che Guevara of the right, always interested in leading a rebellion, smashed Mr. Romney, the Harvard M.B.A. interested in carefully calibrated, data-driven change. The South Carolina story—and the story going forward from [...]

Good lord, Mitt really is in trouble. It is not that Newt did great job (not even close to his performance in the last SC debate), but Romney blew it. He had no spark, no intensity. The best answers actually came from Santorum, who in my mind won the debate technically. He was spot on [...]

For those frustrated voters who sent a wave of new faces to DC in 2010 – to only see them stymied and gagged by the Democrat run Senate and the impotent Super Committee – Newt Gringrich’s campaign represents something important. He is a poke in the eye to the Political Industrial Complex, a signal that [...]

    As I expected, Newt must have just walloped Romney in SC. Fox News called it before 1% of the vote was in and based on exit polls only. The exit polls must be so one sided to be amazing given the way the media is reacting. The talking heads are acting as if [...]

I am looking forward to tonight’s election results, because it looks like Newt Gingrich is going to have a big night. Nate Silver at Five-Thirty-Eight provides a solid analysis on what is happening: Much of the reason for the relatively clear lead for Mr. Gingrich is that he has very clear momentum in the race. [...]