Well, well, well. It seems the establishment GOP is so determined not to let the 2012 insurgent voter get a piece of their political pie they will do anything to get Romney elected. Sarah Palin – as one of the Tea Party, libertarian leaders – has not been silent on the mudslinging against Newt Gingrich from the GOP establishment:

How can he say he’s not a part of the establishment? Well, look at the players in the establishment who are fighting so hard against him. They want to crucify him because he has tapped into that average, every day American Tea Party grassroots movement that has said enough is enough of the establishment, that tries to run the show and tweak rules and laws and regulations for their own good and not for our nation’s own good. Well, when both party machines and many in the media are trying to crucify Newt Gingrich for bucking the tide and bucking the establishment that tells you something.

And I say, you know, you got to rage against the machine at this point in order to defend our republic and save what is good and secure and prosperous about our nation. We need somebody who is engaged in sudden and relentless reform and isn’t afraid to shake it up, shake up that establishment. So, if for no other reason, rage against the machine, vote for Newt. Annoy a liberal, vote Newt! Keep this vetting process going. Keep the debate going.

Make sure to go the link and listen to the entire video piece.

Now Herman Cain is coming out supporting Newt – the last insurgent candidate to be pushed out by an arrogant GOP establishment:

Former presidential hopeful Herman Cain threw his support behind Newt Gingrich Saturday night, providing the former House speaker with a late boost just days before Florida’s primary.

Cain, a tea party favorite, endorsed his fellow Georgian at a GOP fundraiser Saturday calling him “a patriot.”

“Speaker Gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas,” Cain said.

So with Sarah and Herman now aligned AGAINST the establishment Romney, we have the situation where the GOP establishment has clearly declared war against the 2010 insurgent voter and the Tea Party.

Which means they will lose elections up and down the card. They have to. Insurgent voters have no choice but to let the Democrats win until the GOP establishment wakes up, gives up or is fired.

Clearly, some think Obama is so scary that voters will do anything to avoid 4 more years. But the Tea Party insurgent voters are actually immune to government since they prefer to fend for themselves. They may determine that 4 more years of idiotic policies from the left is not much different from 4 more years of idiotic policies from the right. We have suffered through 3 decades of this crap, we can probably handle another decade if that is what it takes to start purging one the establishment from the DC Temples of Power.

When you want to shrink government, and the ones in the way of your goals are the very ones addicted to government largesse, it does not matter which side you have to destroy in order to create a fresh start and direction. Call it creative destruction – the democratic way. Mitt & GOP – your about to be Bain’d by 2012 voters.

Why would any 2010 insurgent voter be for Romney, who is a vague version of Obama? Why? Will we flock to Romeny’s cold Big Business to thwart Obama’s cold Big Government? LOL – not likely. How about we let the GOP suffer political losses until they realize they will keep losing until they listen to America? Sounds like a path out of the darkness versus more wandering in it.

Florida looks like it will be a Pyrrhic victory for Romney and the GOP – and the end of their run with moderate, Main Street, middle class voters. They went for the ‘scorch the Tea Party’ path, and the results will not be a surprise. I have watched Obama’s poll numbers get better and better as Romney and the GOP Sithe torched half their base. After this week the political climate will change. And as is typical, the pivot will come in Florida.

And it will be one of those lines that cannot be uncrossed. Romney and the GOP establishment should have remembered Reagan’s 11th commandment.

Like many Americans, I am counting down the days until the next election so that we can finally turn the country around. 2010 was a huge step in the right direction, but it was never going to be enough. In 2008 our weariness with the war on terror made many of us susceptible to the siren song of “Hope and Change“. It was all a fine crafted lie, which has been exposed since then to really be cover for rabid, left wing policy disasters.

First the failed Stimulus Bill which did nothing but ratchet up our deficits and debt. Instead of lowering unemployment, it made the recession deeper and longer – years longer. We now have to pay off the bills run up by stupid and wasteful programs run amok.

Then came Obamacare which requires 100′s of special interest vouchers to avoid total disaster. All the while costs of health care continue to rise, as government run programs go bankrupt and lines for care start expanding. It is so bad premier health organizations wrote the President to tell him he screwed up and they aren’t risking their organizations or their patients.

The mideast is in turmoil, while an illegal 3rd war was started in Libya – this time without any congressional backing and based on an illegal UN sanction.

The DC pols are obsessed with kowtowing to their rabid base – especially the Democrats who fight every opportunity to get our collective house in order. Those Chicken Little cries of imminent doom screeched from Unions in Wisconsin to the Debt Ceiling debates in DC have proven to be all bark and not real. The sky is not falling as predicted.

And then we get this thrown in our faces:

A key senator has asked the Social Security Administration to investigate how people who live their lives role-playing as “adult babies” are able to get taxpayer-funded disability payments — after one of them was featured on a recent reality TV episode wearing diapers, feeding from a bottle and using an adult-sized crib he built.

Sen. Tom Coburn, Oklahoma Republican and the Senate’s top waste-watcher, asked the agency’s inspector general to look into 30-year-old Stanley Thornton Jr. and his roommate, Sandra Dias, who acts as his “mother,” saying it’s not clear why they are collecting Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits instead of working.

“Given that Mr. Thornton is able to determine what is appropriate attire and actions in public, drive himself to complete errands, design and custom-make baby furniture to support a 350-pound adult and run an Internet support group, it is possible that he has been improperly collecting disability benefits for a period of time,” Mr. Coburn wrote in a letter Monday to Inspector General Patrick P. O’Carroll Jr.

The request comes at a time when members of Congress are struggling to cut budgets and weed out waste to try to bring down the staggering deficit, and comes just days after Social Security’s trustees released a grim assessment of the program’s long-term financial health.

Brings a whole new meaning to the term “Nanny State”. Why is money being diverted from my family so this idiot can wet his pants??? I for one will never watch the show Taboo – it promotes crippling dysfunctional behavior. I would prefer it be cancelled. But at least it has exposed a harsh truth – we could and should cut the government down to bare bones. No more programs to make lives a little better. Either you are completely disabled or you must fend for yourselves.

As I said, all this leaves me disgusted with politics and the current crop of so called leaders. We need to dump all the old guard who got us into this mess. We need to find hard working, truly successful citizens to come in and change the whole paradigm (which would bar community organizers from being pawned off as truly experienced and successful). We have let the fringes on left and right play god with government. Time to take the tool of our suffering away. Shrink government down to its bare and successful minimums. Award thrift and innovation, while demanding results. No more throwing money around hoping something might work. No more pretending bureaucrats are better at solving problems than the private sector. No more.

Sadly, now we wait for 2012 to make the final turn.

Update: Unbelievable! A millionaire receiving food assistance:

A Michigan man has continued to accept food aid from the state even though he won big in a state lottery game and said he told officials about it.

Leroy Fick won the $2 million jackpot in the “Make Me Rich!” contest in June. Despite receiving about $850,000 in winnings, the Auburn resident is still using his Michigan Bridge Card, an electronic version of food stamps.

Fick’s lawyer said his client hasn’t done anything illegal.

What a cretin. All the while our next generation of workers are losing precious career building time:

Now evidence is emerging that the damage wrought by the sour economy is more widespread than just a few careers led astray or postponed. Even for college graduates — the people who were most protected from the slings and arrows of recession — the outlook is rather bleak.

Employment rates for new college graduates have fallen sharply in the last two years, as have starting salaries for those who can find work. What’s more, only half of the jobs landed by these new graduates even require a college degree …

Yeah, all those shovel-ready jobs only required a shovel, not a degree. The lost years wasted over the Reid-Pelosi-Obama Stimulus debacle. Years wiped out and unable to be recaptured. 4 years of punishment for making a rash and emotional choice on election day 2008. Hopefully we have learned our lesson.

Update: Hot Air has more on this, and a lot of comments!

The story of last week’s midterm battle is clear: It was an election about President Barack Obama, and the American people voted against him. According to the exit polls, voters nationwide disapproved of the president’s performance by a 9-point margin, 45-54 percent, and while their impressions of the Republican party were generally negative, they nevertheless gave the GOP what should turn out to be at least a 7-point margin of victory in the popular vote for the House.

The exit polls indicate that voters were dissatisfied with the way Washington has done business since Barack Obama became president. Dissatisfaction was not limited to the sluggish pace of economic recovery. Voters also disapproved of the health care bill, the stimulus package, and the level of deficit spending; they expressed a sense that government has become too big and too intrusive.

We The People held our noses and gave the GOP a chance to do what they say – for once. I don’t think the GOP could screw up, unless they miss the libertarian thrust rushing through the electorate and get distracted as Obama did. And let’s be clear here – a libertarian conservative is not the same as a fiscal conservative. A fiscal conservative would try and balance Obamacare’s books. A libertarian is for rolling back most of Obamacare, tossing it back to the private sector while keeping the few aspects everyone agrees would make health care compassionate again.

The minimal government goal is the complete opposite of the liberal big government world view. That is why the only ‘compromise’ that will be acceptable is making sure the pace at which we dismantle government is carefully gauged to not impact anyone being supported or employed by those elements that need to go away. There is no middle ground between minimal government and big government.

But denial is not a monopoly of the left. Christine O”Donnell continues to deny that she was rejected Tuesday individually, while Tea Party Candidates in ME, NC, PA, FL, WI and KY all won handily for the cause. She seems to think her conservative stance was attacked by conservatives, who wanted instead to elect a socialist???

O’Donnell explained how GOP insiders maneuvered to undermine he campaign from day one. According to O’Donnell, the beltway political class joined forces with the Delaware GOP to silence the voice of the people. In O’Donnell’s view, it was not her insistence on principle which caused her loss, but the refusal of the political ruling class to fully support her, who could not forgive O’Donnell for soundly defeating their hand-picked, establishment candidate – Mike Castle – in the primary, O’Donnell continued.

Oh pullease. It is this exact same illogical and paranoid clap trap that got her in trouble from day one. As Ace notes, there are minimal standards required to gain one of the top jobs in the country. Standards that go beyond the ability to regurgitate conservative platitudes and fog a mirror:

I think it had more to do with the fact that 1, she wasn’t bright (at all), 2, she had no accomplishments whatsoever (and yes, people do want to know someone’s actually done something to earn the right to be one of 100 in the Senate), 3, she had a series of bizarre statements from her past (“mice with fully functioning human brains”), and 4, she couldn’t articulate a conservative message in a way that sounded appealing or intelligent.

For all of us who were not enamored with her and had higher standards for conservative representatives I want to thank Christine for continuing to be the perfect example of what the movement cannot afford as its image. She proves our wisdom each and every time. She is not a total lost cause mind you. Her campaign also produced one of the most powerful ‘ads’ out there, explaining why it is time for the libertarian correction on our out of control government. But that was her campaign, not just Christine.

To this day, the woman is still tainting and overshadowing those who won and are now the new leaders. Were is Ayotte, Haley, Kirk and Johnson? I now Rubio and Rand will get their air time. But why is O’Donnell still outshining probably 100 better representatives of the cause who won or nearly won?

This is the lesson all sides need to learn regarding inexperienced and self absorbed candidates. They tend to really stain everyone near them, instead of bringing any benefit to the cause. Obama and O’Donnell, too sides of the same coin.

Clearly he sees himself as the one who gets to decide whose ideas will be implemented. He has not figured out that he is being rejected. He won’t even admit it was the Democrats failed actions which racked up $5 trillion dollars in debt in 2 short years! That used to take over a decade.

This is going to be a lousy 2 years.

Update 1: The guy is babbling now. Now he is blaming being ‘rushed’ – who is in charge ‘dude’!

Update 2: He will never get it. He thinks bad results ave nothing to do with failed approaches. He is taking tax and spending cuts off the table since he has ‘looked at them and considered them’.

Update 3: Obama really does not get what happened. He moans about China’s high speed trains while saddling businesses with taxes and mandates and regulations which suck up money best spent on innovation. The government DOES NOT innovate – trust me on this. They fund the private sector to innovate (Lockheed’s skunk works, the internet, nuclear medicine, etc).

Take that lunatic 1099 reporting requirement in Obamacare. It is so obviously a stupid money waster to anyone who has been in business. He simply admits his lack of any real world experience caused him to totally miss the implications of that little detail. He has missed uncountable little details (like there are no shovel ready jobs) since coming to office.

And while he inherited a deficit ($1 trillion from TARP), he is the one who signed into law policies that exploded that deficit 5 fold! He really is either seriously delusional or a chronic liar. He thinks his foggy and misleading rhetoric still mesmerizes and confuses.

He refuses to admit he needs to give up his big government solutions. As I said in my post this morning, because the GOP only has the house they will be forced to simply hold hearings and stop further deployment of Obama’s foolish, liberal ideas. And that puts them in a risky position. They need to handle our young, inexperienced and stubborn president carefully. Make sure it is always his naive arrogance that causes the coming gridlock.

OK, Upon some reflection I have to admit the GOP wave in the House and Governor races is quite impressive. The GOP candidates in the Governor races showed how to win statewide races while appealing to a broad portion of the electorate. Right now the GOP has won 10 Democrat governor seats in PA, OH, OK, MI, WI, IA, WY, TN, KS and NM. Sink just conceded in FL (a hold). The one big loss was zombie-voting CA. The GOP is leading in AK, OR and ME. Dems have small leads in IL and MN. All in all a great day at the state (and redistricting) level.

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air has much more on the foundation that was created to build a majority party on going into 2012.

Or the morning after headache (3:00 AM is such a long road to travel).

I, for one, did not wake up feeling enough was accomplished yesterday. Yes, the GOP won a lot of seats. lost no major ones, retired a lot of Democrats – many senior ones. But in the end, the Tea Party fell way too short and failed Main Street at the national and state level. I do not blame the Tea Party candidates, many of whom are just what we need right now – imperfect citizens storming the ramparts of the Political Industrial Complex. Sadly, that Political Industrial Complex is pretty strong if it motivate people to vote to continue down the same wrong path in the highest unemployment states like California and Nevada.

I think California is the biggest head-scratcher out there. They voted against two accomplished business women and instead went with two proven bad politicians. Of course the people there have been running that state into the ground for a decade now, so I guess expecting them to change course would be too much to ask. I mean who else destroys whole farming communities to save a silly little fish and sees nothing wrong with government? California has now put the accelerator down towards their fiscal cliff (lean forward folks, this is going to be a doozy). Their taxes will continue to rise, forcing more businesses and talented people to leave. Who would even consider immigrating there with all that debt and dysfunction? Unless you are from south of the border. So sad. But as someone tweeted last night (I think it was Ace of Spades) they are on their own. No bail outs from the rest of the country after this result.

Update: In CA not a single incumbent has yet to lose – that is what I mean about zombie voting. That place is best avoided.

2nd Update: Was lamenting to LJStrata about her one-time home state and she pretty much nailed it. It was a choice between “The New Hotness” from Ebay and HP or “Old ‘n Busted” Brown and Boxer. If there is no greater sign that California’s golden days are behind it, it was the choice for “Old ‘n Busted” yesterday. - end update.

And let’s get to the nut of it – Gallup was way wrong. Something is not right with their likely voter model. Same thing with that Field Poll which came out and predicted a huge GOP wave. I put a lot of weight on their results being close – and they were not. For some strange reason Gallup (and others) over estimated the force of the GOP wave.

In all fairness, something probably happened on the larger scale to halt the wave. Either people stayed home who said they were voting. Or the Dem GOTV is way superior than the GOP version. Or the GOP has to do something about the urban areas (the places where many of these states were lost). The GOP cannot just be a countrified, suburban and rural centered party. They need to break into the population centers, which helped the Dems hold on in CA and NV, etc.

Now for the headache part of the assessment:

(1) Obamacare will not be stopped for another two years. Our premiums and copays are going to rise – unless you have the political clout to win exceptions as many companies are doing for God knows what price. Most of us will lose our health care in order to go into government approved plans. And businesses will spend a lot of money complying with idiotic, one-size fits all health care mandates out of DC instead of hiring and expanding. Seniors will see their services cut back, and a lot more doctors will be opting out of Medicare/Medicaid since they don’t pay to cover costs.

(2) The massive Obama, Reid & Pelosi deficits will continue for another two years. The only way to even begin to chip away at them is for taxes to go up, since the economy will not rebound enough to increase revenues. While the Dems hold the senate there will be too much compromising on the libertarian side of the ledger. Tax hikes and wasted spending will continue, as we fall further into debt.

(3) The Federal bureaucracy will not shrink, but grow. There will be no course correction – we don’t hold enough seats. The EPA may be stopped from controlling nature’s most basic gas (CO2) threw investigations coming out of the House. But this investigative approach requires a deft hand. It requires an appreciation of science and math to expose the flaws in the global warming propaganda. The Dept of Ed will not be shrunk and re-focused. Nothing major will happen with regard to the major problem of bloated government.

I can go on and on about opportunities lost, wrong paths still being traveled.

And I have to say the Tea Party and Sarah Palin have really hurt their credibility in many ways. You cannot just pick candidates because they spout platitudes – they need to be accomplished individuals. For this I will compare the best and the worst of the Tea Party senate candidates: Joe Miller in Alaska and Christine O’Donnell in Delaware. I came to like O’Donnell, never could admire her or see her as a leader. She just seems to float in life, pretending to have accomplished great things (and this comes from someone who could never lay claim to anything great outside our family – which is awesome if you ask me). Joe Miller, decorated veteran, lawyer, etc is a very accomplished person. I expect him to win in the end, when all the dust settles.

The choice of O’Donnell had ramifications across the board. Her foibles began to spill over on Angle, Fiorina, Whitman and McMahon. I feel so sorry for all these extremely accomplished individuals, because to lump them in with O’Donnell is unfair – but that is how politics work. After O’Donnell’s win something caused the electorate to hold back and recall the GOP’s high negatives from 2006 and 2008. I think O’Donnell’s win and questionable bona fides helped create that hesitation that stopped the wave.

While the Tea Party did have a lot of successes, their failures were of equal import. There is a reason Rubio, Toomey and Johnson did well and Buck, Angle and O’Donnell struggled. I still support Angle and Buck and wished their Main Street imperfections were more asset than liability in the eyes of the voters. And Fiorina and Whitman had no such problems – that state is just zombie voting apparently. Whatever the case, much more scrutiny on potential candidates is required going forward, and we need to watch out for someone who can take a whole group down by association.

And a much broader appeal is required too. Lots of hyper-partisans look to closed primaries and other ways to control the purity of their candidates. I think this is a death sentence. As I said before, the GOP needs to broaden out and penetrate the urban areas, while holding the suburbs. They will never get candidates with broader (yes, more centrist) balance if they keep their primaries closed to only the pure ideologues.

At some point centrists will be embraced again. We saw the potential of what could happen for a party if they moderated their hyper-partisan wings and allowed centrists an equal voice. And that means not shouting each other down and questioning motives when the debate is over HOW to achieve a goal.

It was a good night for the GOP and conservatives and a major thumping for the Democrats. But the real measure of power in DC did not shift enough. Sad to say this, but when it comes to making changes, you have to have enough of your team’s hands on enough controls to execute the change. Being a pure minority that talks a lot but does not have any important levers is nothing but fantasizing about accomplishing change. To get enough hands on enough levers you have to agree to common ground and some compromise.

This is a fact of life.

Update: Not surprisingly, Jay Cost at the Weekly Standard concurs with my assessment of where we go from here:

Republicans need to recognize that while conservative principles can win in America, they require candidates with broad appeal. Clearly, Sharron Angle, Ken Buck, and Christine O’Donnell are not these kinds of candidates. The goal of the Republican party in the next two years should be to articulate the conservative case with an eye to persuading as many voters as possible. After all, that is how change really happens in the United States — it comes through building a broad political coalition that stretches all across the country. Conservative principles have won such broad mandates before — in 1896 and 1900, in 1924, in 1980 and 1984 — and that should be the goal of the Republican party moving forward.

12:10 AM Eastern: Kirk wins IL! Keeping an eye on WA, NV, CA and CT

12:10 AM Eastern: VA11 has two machines in Fairfax not working and locked up. Tomorrow will be the final canvas and recount plans. If CA, NV and WA hold then it was not as good as I had hoped. Will contemplate impacts tomorrow – but not much can be done in DC to fix things. Expect extended economic pain.

11:48 PM Eastern: GOP just won 41 seats, Nancy has been retired.

11:47 PM Eastern: Attempting to put comments back on – if it gets bad will have to turn them off again.

11:42 PM Eastern: Scratch that and reverse it (late night) Connolly up by 500. Still up to absentee ballots in strong GOP locales. Fimian takes 550 vote lead in VA11 with 100% reporting. Down to absentee ballots in regions heavy GOP. If this holds GOP takes 4 out of 6 dems out in VA!

11:30 PM Eastern: PA Update – Toomey up 126K with 96% reporting, should be called soon for Toomey

11:24 PM Eastern: In IL Kirk is up 59,300 votes with 89% reporting. That looks like a GOP pick up. Toomey looks he is pulling out a tight one. Fox called CA Senate and Gov, CNN did not yet (for good reason). Dino ahead in WA with 20% reporting, and I am still watching CT to see if it was called too soon!

10:53 PM Eastern: Toomey moving moving ahead finally, Kirk moving ahead finally, Feingold finally loses, Spratt gone, Chet Edwards gone. Looking very strong still – and watch CT. May have been called too early.

10:05 PM Eastern: There are tons of races not being called in the east (GA2, GA8) which should start falling soon. And I am still watching the CT Senate race to see if that was called prematurely.

9:37 PM Eastern: OK, I do not see the GOP getting as far as I had hoped, but I am watching some races called by exit polls (specifically CT Senate). I have some issues with polls this year and I am surprised to see races come in higher and lower for the GOP than expected. The key that the wave is not that big is VA11 between Fimian and Connolly. A few hundred votes separate the two. This D+2 CD seems to be the high water mark for Dems. A lot more Dems will be falling in the House, but unless we see something surprising, the Dems could hold the Senate. Unless something big breaks, plan to watch and enjoy the night.

9:00 PM Eastern: VA2 goes to the GOP which means they have picked up 3 seats in VA. So far only 2 Democrats are left standing. It comes VA11 Connelly-Fimian race. Taking out 2/3rds of the Democrats in VA is a huige night for GOP.

8:30 PM Eastern: VA9 was my indicator for a 75 seat win for the GOP. With 79% reporting Griffith is leading 52-36 over Boucher. Surprisingly Moran’s race has not been called yet, which is interesting. Hurt should win VA5 soon. Looking good in House, now for some luck in the senate.

8:03 PM Eastern: Looks like Scott will survive in VA3, but he may be one of 2 Dems left standing.

CNN calling Coons in CT based on exit poll data – may be a risky move. Rubio wins.

7:45 PM Eastern: Amazing data in VA. VA5 Hurt is up by 12% with 28% reporting – this will be called soon and is a GOP take. VA9 Griffith is up 8% with 16% reporting. This is the race I said would indicate 75 seat pick up. The one race I never saw even in play was VA3, with 6% reporting incumbent Scott is down 3%. If this race goes GOP then who knows how big the wave.

7:25 PM Eastern: I am predicting IN2 and IN9 will be called for the GOP soon – superwave coming!

7:20 PM Eastern: It looks like IN and KY are going to have 2-3 Democrat Congressman left standing between the two of them. Looks like IN2 will go to the GOP (trending +25% with 8% of the vote in, when RCP had it +5 D in the final polls). This will be a huge wipe out.

7:00 PM Eastern: Fox Calls first senate race, Dan Coates in IN as the GOP take their first seat. Rand Paul also wins in KY (and early), holding the GOP seat! That was fast for KY.

6:57 PM Eastern: Reminder – exit polls are not final results, and Drudge is not reporting percentages of lead.

6:52 PM Eastern: Drudge adds Rubio to the exit poll winners for GOP (morning & afternoon) and Boxer (morning only only). Not buying the Boxer win yet, but explains why CNN & Dems don’t want to depress west coast dem voters.

Heavy voting in NoVA.

6:47 PM Eastern: NY Times has a great election returns map for The House and The Senate

6:40 PM Eastern: CNN democrats keep trying to claim there is hope in the afternoon exit polls (not likely). Drugde has Kirk (CO) and Paul (KY) well ahead in exit polls. Still awaiting the VA results to see how big this wave is. Be back closer to 7 PM.

6:09 PM Eastern: Wipe out. Drudge has 4 races called already based on exit polls:

Arkansas: Boozman (R) defeats Lincoln (D)
Ohio: Portman (R) defeats Fisher (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) defeats Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) defeats Feingold (D)

4 Senate seat already! Fox reporting Youth and African American vote way down.

6:03 PM Eastern: Exits: 73% angry or upset with Federal government, 48% want to repeal health care. Not good for the big government dems.

5:55 PM Eastern: I will be adding to this post all night as information comes in. From Jim Geraghty we hear the initial exit polls are horrible.

I am watching the VA congressional races to measure the size of the wave, and now I have an eye on VA3 – the one race I never thought the Dems would lose. If Scott loses in VA3 there may be NO democrat congressman from VA come 2011.

I also cannot help but note CNN’s dark background music for the exit polls. Sounds like a cross between Jaws and the last Batman movie. Are they projecting?

5 Minutes to the first poll closings

Major Update: Democrat in MD Govenor’s race now also raising the turnout alarm bells:

We are getting reports from the field that turnout is lighter than expected in a few key counties.

This is exactly what our opponent needs to close the gap–he needs you and your friends to sit back, get overconfident, and stay home.

- end update

First it was Coons in DE raising the alarm bells, now it is Blumenthal in CT sending out a midday alert that Dems are not coming out in the needed numbers:

Low supporter turnout for Richard Blumenthal has forced the campaign to send out an alert Tuesday afternoon urging supporters to get out to the polls.

“Voter turnout appears to be heavy in areas that benefit our opponent,” The campaign email read”.” It is critical that we maximize our efforts to get our supporters to the polls. We need your help”

If McMahon in CT and O’Donnell in DE are looking strong, then forget about Boxer in CA and Murray in WA and Manchin in WV. It means the pollsters were way to conservative this year with their turnout models, and Gallup was right. Superwave!

In a noon email alert to supporters, Coons campaign manager Christy Gleason said close monitoring of voter turnout in the state’s 41 representative districts showed “lower turnout in New Castle and Kent counties than we’re comfortable with.”

Was it lower turnout in their areas, or massive turnout in O’Donnell’s? The parties and campaigns have all the data to measure the wave as it comes ashore – so this is a clear sign the Democrats are not happy with what they see!

The Field Poll has now cemented that concern by showing a huge GOP turnout edge:

Mark DiCamillo, Field Poll director, said his polling projects turnout of 68 percent for Republicans, 55 percent for Democrats, and 38 percent for independent or minor-party voters.

The bottom line for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman is that Democrats’ 13-point lead in voter registration will shrink to a 5 percent advantage in votes cast because of the disparity in turnout, the poll found.

DiCamillo said that the Tea Party movement is expected to bolster Republican turnout this year, with roughly 40 percent of likely California voters indicating at least some identification with the populist protest movement.

The full results are here. This means the GOP-Independent portion of the electorate is going to rival the Democrats at the polls (click to enlarge).

Again we clearly see an intensity gap for the GOP voters, running a good 7% above their registration level. This is not how the CA electorate voted in 2008. The exit polls in 2008 showed the Dems with a 13% lead (42-28), not a 5% one.

As I have done with the early voting data, I can run two scenarios through the turnout model and determine who wins the votes. If we assume both parties hold 95% of their base and the GOP takes independents by 20% (a fairly universal national benchmark this year) then we end up with a near tie as the Dems win by 1.7% (50.8 D – 49.2 R). This defies the poll results we have been seeing in CA, especially in the governor’s race.

If assume the GOP actually will take 15% of the Democrat base along with that 20% lead with the independents, then the GOP wins the vote by a whopping 7.2% (46.4 D – 53.6 R). This second model combines the GOP enthusiasm gap, the independent voter gap, and the yet to be confirmed democrat defection rate. I wager that the actual outcome in CA will be between these two markers, which means the GOP is likely to win both statewide races. As they say, turn out is everything.

They call it the ‘enthusiasm’ gap, but there is no enthusiasm behind the wave hitting the election booths across the nation today. It is fear of more liberal havoc, and it has the GOP-Independent alliance coming out in enormous numbers compared to a Democrat base disillusioned and fractured. Gallup’s last broadside of data is just mind boggling:

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

H/T Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. This is a big wave coming. When you combine this GOP-Independent leaner ‘enthusiasm’ gap to the generic ballot gap you begin to get a glimpse of this towering event that is now coming ashore.

I repeat, there are three factors behind this voter backlash. It is a combination of (a) the enthusiasm gap, (b) the shift of independents to the GOP by 20-30% and (c) the yet to be reported defection of Democrats. All polls so far assume Dems will hold 95% of their base. This is just not going to happen under these conditions. This is why I remain bullish on this election and predict a GOP gain of at least 75 house and 10 senate seats. There is no ray of hope in this data for the Dems. None.

Despite a deluge of campaign spending over the last few months by Republican-leaning outside groups, Democratic candidates and their allies have outspent Republicans over all on television advertising in House races, according to data provided by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising. In Senate races, however, Republicans outspent Democrats.

We were told the Democrats were ready and would have the money to offset their failures this year. That myth is now busted, as all that money did not save the Democrat majority in the House.

There are tons of individual races which can be indicators of how the election will play out – but there is one state (mine of course) which will measure the level of the wave right after the polls close at 7 PM Eastern. These results may be earlier than most other states and will be a quick gauge for the rest of the evening. This is because the VA Democrat Congressman will fall based on the height of the GOP wave. Right now VA has a mix of 6 Democrats and 5 Republican Congress Critters:

R-VA1: Rep. Wittman
D-VA2: Rep. Nye
D-VA3: Rep. Scott
R-VA4: Rep. Forbes
D-VA5: Rep. Perriello
R-VA6: Rep. Goodlatte
R-VA7: Rep. Cantor
D-VA8: Rep. Moran
D-VA9: Rep. Boucher
R-VA10: Rep. Wolf
D-VA11: Rep. Connolly

No GOP candidates are at risk this cycle.

In a normal mid-term realignment I could see the GOP leaning districts (PIV of R+5) going back to the GOP. So if VA2 and VA5 go back to the GOP, and they are the only ones to go GOP, then the Dems have a chance to keep the House. This is just returning to the typical VA balance.

If the normally safe Rep Boucher in VA9 (R+11) loses, this would indicate a range where the GOP takes 45-55 seats. At this point control of the Senate is in play, but either side could win.

If we also see VA11 (D+2) go to the GOP, then we are firmly in the 60-70 seat pick up range. I believe that when you get to this point the Senate tips to the GOP simply because the sum of the house races have to impact the state-wide races.

If we see VA8 go to the GOP, we are in uncharted territory and the Dems are looking at a devastating Tuesday – where long shot senate races (DE & CT for example) go into the GOP column and we discuss this election for years to come.

I think we will see 4 of the VA dems lose (VA2, VA5, VA9 & VA11) tomorrow – this is one big wave. If Jim Moran also loses in VA8, then you can bet there will be a lot of surprise losses all night long. It would also leave only one Democrat left standing in the state of VA house caucus. And a message will have been sent, loud and clear.

The source and back story can be found here.

All that reckless spending and the majority of Americans (those not working for the government) paid the price with their jobs, lives and families. It is this elitist crap – taking our hard earned money and feathering their lazy-arse beds – that created the Tea Party and the backlash now cocked and ready to hammer DC. The only growth in jobs is in federal jobs – again this is done by taking our money away from us.

The second chart shows that these jobs are not just temporary census jobs paying minimum wage (click to enlarge:

Back story here.

It is criminal to take money from hard working Americans and stuff it in the pockets of bureaucrats who claim the money is going to the needy. Now we know why $5 trillion dollars later we still have a rotten economy and no hope in site. But change is coming!

This is why America is rising up in anger. This is why this is a libertarian revolt. This is why America no longer trusts or wants big government.