Soon to be Ex-Speaker Pelosi and soon to be Ex Majority Leader (and Senator) Reid and our young, inexperienced President have achieved something fairly impressive this election – they united the nation in common cause. I say this because I disagree with what two very experienced Democrat pollsters have written in the WaPo this morning […]

Pennsylvania is going to be the prime example of how pollsters just missed this election. The GOP has had a regular but small lead in the state for the entire month of October, as if the Dems are somehow still in the statewide (and by extension the CD) races. But we now have a sample […]

This election year has become just too gross, thanks to the Democrats and their ‘do anything for power’ madness. Even Bill Clinton has fallen back into the sewer. We learned last night that Bill Clinton was once again President Obama’s emissary to try and convince (bribe with some other job) a democrat candidate to leave […]

The Democrats have become unhinged this election cycle. It’s as if they need to add an enormous exclamation point to the end of their two year reign of incompetence and corruption. We have had college scholarships for the needy handed out to congressional family, friends and coworkers. We have had tax evasions, unreported income, back […]

Update: Sean Trende at RCP does a similar form of analysis, gets similar answer. Update: Those not seeing the wave are blinded by denial – so says The Hill. And The Hotline concurs. Update: Read the analysis and then come back and check out this Hillbuzz rumor about moderate Democrats energized to vote straight GOP […]

OK, I have been watching Democrats fall like dominoes all over the place with a distant pleasure. But it is not until you see a big one fall near your home before you actually feel the rumble of that tsunami coming down in your bones: A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District, […]

The poll that made headlines in PA when it came out by showing a surprise 3% lead for Democrat Joe Sestak is now, less than a week later, showing GOP contender Pat Toomey running away with the race (click to enlarge): Which, as I noted yesterday, is in line with the early voting trends in […]

Major Updates Below! Here is a quick post on the Gallup Generic Ballot numbers just out (click to enlarge). The latest numbers show a slight tightening in the “likely” voter models, but nothing that could save the Democrats at this juncture. Assuming there is still a 2-3% underestimation in the Gallup numbers verses the final […]

While I await the latest Gallup generic ballot bombshell, I have some data to show in PA which looks to squelch the idea of any Democrat surge or tightening of races. It comes from two sources: the Morning Call daily tracking poll and the Early Voting tallies presented by Politico this morning. Everyone may recal […]

I wanted to really ascertain which party was more motivated to vote (or more successful in the GOTV) using a common measurement that avoids turnout model speculation. In my mind, if a party is outperforming its 2010 registered-voter percentage, then it is has to be enjoying a edge in voter enthusiasm. Even more importantly, if […]