Archive for the '2012 Elections' Category

Nov 16 2012

The Disaster That Was GOP GOTV On Election Day

Major Update: More pathetic details here: As the Web traffic from volunteers attempting to connect to Orca mounted, the system crashed repeatedly because of bandwidth constraints. At one point the network connection to the campaign’s data center went down—apparently because the ISP shut it off. “They told us Comcast thought it was a denial of […]

15 responses so far

Nov 07 2012

The Obligatory “You’ll Eat Your Crow And Like It” Post

One of the great things about blogging is when you have an epic face plant moment, you get to post about it the next day – no matter what. /sarcasm Amazingly, President Obama ran the table of swing states – taking all but North Carolina. Color me sadly stunned. I got none right, outside NC. […]

56 responses so far

Nov 06 2012

Where Does Ohio Stand Going Into Election Day?

Edited at 3:00 & 3:07 PM Eastern, Updated 3:40 PM OK, I needed to get some confidence that Romney will win this thing, and so I took a look at the county-by-county tallies for Ohio’s early/absentee voting and did some analysis.  Due to the complexity and size of the spreadsheet I am not posting the […]

2 responses so far

Nov 05 2012

AJStrata’s Election Prediction

Major Update: Romney’s internal polls also confirm my predictions: Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source. Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up […]

13 responses so far

Nov 05 2012

Even In Chicago, Obama Has Performance Issues

Published by under 2012 Elections

Does anyone really think Obama has the Big Mo’ if he can’t even ignite his home town? According to the numbers, at this point in 2008, there were 260,376 early voters and 304,290 absentee voters. Now, the party maintains, there are 195,064 early voters and 46,232 absentee voters. That’s a loss of 57 percent of […]

3 responses so far

Nov 05 2012

Polling In An Alternate Universe Part Deux: The Acid Trip

Published by under 2012 Elections

I plan to come out with my  predictions later today. Needless to say I have been waiting because I want to see Gallup’s last hurrah today before jumping in. But to be honest, after seeing the CNN poll today I am about ready to make Michael Barone look cautious: The poll, released earlier tonight, shows […]

5 responses so far

Nov 04 2012

Nevada Early Vote Indicates Possible Romney Win

Nevada has completed its early voting, and while Democrats have a slight lead in raw numbers, the GOP and Independents have also come out in force. Therefore, some reasonable turnout calculations show a possible Romney win. Here’s the math: Final vote tallies (ref here and here): Democrats: 307,877 (43.9%) Republicans: 259,913 (37%) Independents: 134,055 (19.1%) […]

9 responses so far

Nov 04 2012

Obama Still Sinking, Momentum Is Towards Romney Clear

Let me pose a few questions to those desperately trying not to see the momentum shift to Romney here in the final days of the 2012 election cycle. Is Florida turning redder or bluer? Is Virginia or North Carolina turning deep blue and moving out of Romney’s reach? Is Missouri once again within Obama’s reach […]

2 responses so far

Nov 03 2012

Polling In An Alternate Universe

A slew of polls are out from WSJ/NBC/Marist showing Obama leads in Ohio and elsewhere. Only problem is the turn out models appear to be devoid of all reality. First, you will want to read this: While Obama is ahead in early raw voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina, voting expert Michael McDonald, a […]

3 responses so far

Nov 02 2012

Where Have All The Democrats Gone?

Updates Galore! – at the end of post A very interesting study is out from a left wing think tank that may have the explanation for why the polls are all skewed to Obama compared to what people see as a Romney surge on the ground and nationally. It has to do with a migration […]

2 responses so far

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