Major Update: More pathetic details here: As the Web traffic from volunteers attempting to connect to Orca mounted, the system crashed repeatedly because of bandwidth constraints. At one point the network connection to the campaign’s data center went down—apparently because the ISP shut it off. “They told us Comcast thought it was a denial of [...]

One of the great things about blogging is when you have an epic face plant moment, you get to post about it the next day – no matter what. /sarcasm Amazingly, President Obama ran the table of swing states – taking all but North Carolina. Color me sadly stunned. I got none right, outside NC. [...]

Edited at 3:00 & 3:07 PM Eastern, Updated 3:40 PM OK, I needed to get some confidence that Romney will win this thing, and so I took a look at the county-by-county tallies for Ohio’s early/absentee voting and did some analysis.  Due to the complexity and size of the spreadsheet I am not posting the [...]

Major Update: Romney’s internal polls also confirm my predictions: Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source. Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up [...]

Does anyone really think Obama has the Big Mo’ if he can’t even ignite his home town? According to the numbers, at this point in 2008, there were 260,376 early voters and 304,290 absentee voters. Now, the party maintains, there are 195,064 early voters and 46,232 absentee voters. That’s a loss of 57 percent of [...]

I plan to come out with my  predictions later today. Needless to say I have been waiting because I want to see Gallup’s last hurrah today before jumping in. But to be honest, after seeing the CNN poll today I am about ready to make Michael Barone look cautious: The poll, released earlier tonight, shows [...]

Nevada has completed its early voting, and while Democrats have a slight lead in raw numbers, the GOP and Independents have also come out in force. Therefore, some reasonable turnout calculations show a possible Romney win. Here’s the math: Final vote tallies (ref here and here): Democrats: 307,877 (43.9%) Republicans: 259,913 (37%) Independents: 134,055 (19.1%) [...]

Let me pose a few questions to those desperately trying not to see the momentum shift to Romney here in the final days of the 2012 election cycle. Is Florida turning redder or bluer? Is Virginia or North Carolina turning deep blue and moving out of Romney’s reach? Is Missouri once again within Obama’s reach [...]

A slew of polls are out from WSJ/NBC/Marist showing Obama leads in Ohio and elsewhere. Only problem is the turn out models appear to be devoid of all reality. First, you will want to read this: While Obama is ahead in early raw voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina, voting expert Michael McDonald, a [...]

Updates Galore! – at the end of post A very interesting study is out from a left wing think tank that may have the explanation for why the polls are all skewed to Obama compared to what people see as a Romney surge on the ground and nationally. It has to do with a migration [...]

As a follow up to yesterday’s brief post (traveling again!) I was going to note a strange missing element to this cycle’s swing state debate: Missouri Where did the Show Me State go? I can remember a presidential race where MO was consider the bell-weather. See here from circa 2008: Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher [...]

Update 3: The folks over at Powerline rip Quinnipiac and their mind boggling fictional turnout model: discount the Quinnipiac results, however, because its sample consists of 35 percent Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. That’s a better split for the Dems than they enjoyed in 2008. There is little reason to believe that the Democrats will [...]

The reality of the last 4 years of the Obama administration is starting to come crashing down on the left wing echo chambers in DC, NY and San Francisco. Obama’s firewall of swing states is folding like a domino set made of cheap lawn chairs. It is so bad warning signs are flaring up in [...]

When I look at polls-of-polls that throw everything into the ‘snapshot’, or ridiculously precise models using data that has enormous error bars, I am reminded( as any good aerospace engineer is) that precision is not always a sound goal. It is at times more important (and defensible) to  understand trends and envelopes and not waste [...]

Update: I really like this post at Hot Air on the multidimensional screw up this incident really is. Update: Breitbart also notes the damage Obama did in VA (H/T Hot Air) Update: Someone from across the pond (in the UK) saw it the same way I did: Well, governor, we also have fewer horses and [...]