A slew of polls are out from WSJ/NBC/Marist showing Obama leads in Ohio and elsewhere. Only problem is the turn out models appear to be devoid of all reality. First, you will want to read this: While Obama is ahead in early raw voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina, voting expert Michael McDonald, a […]

Updates Galore! – at the end of post A very interesting study is out from a left wing think tank that may have the explanation for why the polls are all skewed to Obama compared to what people see as a Romney surge on the ground and nationally. It has to do with a migration […]

As a follow up to yesterday’s brief post (traveling again!) I was going to note a strange missing element to this cycle’s swing state debate: Missouri Where did the Show Me State go? I can remember a presidential race where MO was consider the bell-weather. See here from circa 2008: Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher […]

Update 3: The folks over at Powerline rip Quinnipiac and their mind boggling fictional turnout model: discount the Quinnipiac results, however, because its sample consists of 35 percent Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. That’s a better split for the Dems than they enjoyed in 2008. There is little reason to believe that the Democrats will […]

The reality of the last 4 years of the Obama administration is starting to come crashing down on the left wing echo chambers in DC, NY and San Francisco. Obama’s firewall of swing states is folding like a domino set made of cheap lawn chairs. It is so bad warning signs are flaring up in […]

When I look at polls-of-polls that throw everything into the ‘snapshot’, or ridiculously precise models using data that has enormous error bars, I am reminded( as any good aerospace engineer is) that precision is not always a sound goal. It is at times more important (and defensible) to  understand trends and envelopes and not waste […]

Update: I really like this post at Hot Air on the multidimensional screw up this incident really is. Update: Breitbart also notes the damage Obama did in VA (H/T Hot Air) Update: Someone from across the pond (in the UK) saw it the same way I did: Well, governor, we also have fewer horses and […]

The Battle in Boca! If I had to make a prediction before things get going I would say I expect the best Obama can do is come to another draw, and not stop the current trajectory of this race. The worst he can do is implode over Benghazi and the lack of enhancing security after: […]

Update: Another poll out with Obama at 47% – end update One reason I feel confident Romney will win this year is the poll standing for Obama. As I have posted many times, Obama seems to have hit a ceiling and is now highly likely to lose on November 6. While some focus on the […]

Update: Math error in this rushed post this morning. It is not $5m per person, but $50K. Fixed the math – still too much to afford. – end update I have to admit, the Alfred E Smith speeches by both candidates last night were fun. And I actually think Obama had the slightly smoother delivery. […]