Iraqi army troops have encountered little resistance during operations near the fortified front line in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, the U.S. military reported Saturday, signaling that a shaky truce with the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Shiite militia was holding.

“In the last 72 hours we have seen a significant reduction in attacks against Iraqi security forces and coalition forces,” said Col. John Hort, commander of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division.

…

The Americans were taking extra precautions to be sure they did not disturb the cease-fire. They received orders to open fire only in self-defense, and even then not to shoot until they had positively identified who was attacking, according to a New York Times photographer traveling with them.

The fact this truce might lead to long term agreements (which I am sure will require the Mahdi Army and Sadrists to disarm and let the Iraqi forces provide control and governance) is good news.  Will it happen?  who knows, but it seems the Sadrists and their Iranian backers want to end the stand off ASAP, since it was clearly causing a backlash against them among the Shiite populations.

There was one sad bit news was out of Iraq as some childish acts by US soldiers threatened to undo some of the good work that has been done to build bonds of respect between Americans and the Iraqis:

Meanwhile, a U.S. soldier desecrated the Quran at a shooting range in Radwaniyah, south of the Baghdad airport, a strongly Sunni Arab area, an American spokesman said Saturday. The episode was reported Friday by Mohammed al-Daiyni, a Parliament member from the National Dialogue Front, one of the Sunni parties.

“The residents found the holy Quran riddled with bullets after the withdrawal of the American forces,” al-Daiyni said.

Col. Bill Bruckner, the public affairs officer for Multi-National Corps Iraq, said in an e-mail message that U.S. commanders had confirmed that a Quran was found at the range with bullet holes and graffiti inside the cover, and he called the events “serious and deeply troubling.” The message said that commanders had expressed their “deep regret” to local leaders. It also said, “They have also undertaken disciplinary action against the soldier who was involved, and he has been removed from Iraq.”

This is how one bad apple can cause huge damage.  Sort of like how Surrendercrats also cause damage when they call for leaving our Iraqi allies high and dry.  For pure laughs check out how Chief Surrendercrat <a href=”http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/05/iraqi-parliament-speaker-lectures.html”>Nancy Pelosi was left cooling her heels for a day</a> waiting to meet with top Iraqis.  When she did get her meetings the Iraqis forcefully reminded her that America’s responsibility in Iraq is far from over.  Not surprising really.  Pelosi has been trying to runaway from Iraq for years now, so I fail to see why Iraqis would drop everything to listen to her rant about how defeat is unavoidable.

In the North of Iraq, al-Qaeda is being rounded up by the hundreds:

About 1,100 people have been arrested during the first four days of an Iraqi military operation in the country’s main northern city of Mosul, the defence ministry says.  

…

Al-Askari said 530 of those being held, three of them senior al-Qaeda members, were wanted by the authorities.

He said security forces had recovered 1,400kg of explosives, 45 missiles, 263 mortar bombs and 175 assorted weapons.

It seems the Iraqi claim a few months back that they had penetrated most of al-Qaeda via intelligence was 100% correct.  More here from the Long War Journal on how badly AQ leadership and foreign forces has been decimated:

Of those captured, “just under 200″ Tier 1 and Tier 2 al Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq operatives have been detained, said Major General Mark Hertling, the commander of Multinational Division North said during a briefing on May 15.

“There have been some very big fishes caught,” Hertling said. Tier 1 operatives are operational leaders. Tier 2 operatives are foreign fighters or weapons facilitators, bomb makers, and cell leaders.

US and Iraqi forces have killed or captured several key al Qaeda leaders in Mosul over the past several months. Fourteen of the top 30 al Qaeda operatives who have been killed or captured in the past three months were al Qaeda leaders in Mosul, including three al Qaeda leaders from Saudi Arabia.

From the previous link we see that the remnants of AQ leadership and fighters in Iraq is retreating to a nearby country:

Yassin Majid, an adviser to Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, said most of the group’s leaders had fled to the outskirts of Mosul or to a neighbouring country.

He did not name the country, but Mosul is about 96km from the Syrian and Turkish borders.

AQ running for the hills – what a great sign of pending victory in Iraq.  Tied to an agreement with the Mahd Army and Sadrists to disarm and the future for Iraq looks quite bright.  One can only wonder of Nancy Pelosi was able to figure it out, since she was there.

CIA officials will tell Congress on Thursday that North Korea had been helping Syria build a plutonium-based nuclear reactor, a U.S. official said, a disclosure that could touch off new resistance to the administration’s plan to ease sanctions on Pyongyang.

The CIA officials will tell lawmakers that they believe the reactor would have been capable of producing plutonium for nuclear weapons but was destroyed before it could do so, the U.S. official said, apparently referring to a suspicious installation in Syria that was bombed last year by Israeli warplanes.

The CIA officials also will say that though U.S. officials have had concerns for years about ties between North Korea and Syria, it was not until last year that new intelligence convinced them that the suspicious facility under construction in a remote area of Syria was a nuclear reactor, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity when discussing plans for the briefing.

This is a very disconcerting revelation. Syria has been a pathway for many Jihadist into Iraq to fight with al-Qaeda. Syria is also a looming threat to Israel. The threat from a secret nuclear facility is it could provide an untraceable source for nuclear bomb materials that could be handed to suicidal Jihadists and rampage as they see fit without the world being able to target the source of the material. Thankfully we were able to detect the activity and have action taken before it became operational. But we may not always be so lucky. Secret nuclear facilities and programs like those in Iran and Syria (and previously Iraq) are secret for a reason. Peaceful uses of nuclear power are not secret.

Why do they do this? I don’t know, all I know is the pattern is now set. We saw it on 9-11, we saw it in Afghanistan with the Taliban, we saw it backfire in Iraq with the Awakening. It is what Islamo Fascists do – everything evolves out of violence and oppression. They would know better if they could open their minds to history. Even under Clinton the atrocities happening in the old states of Yugoslavia – which paled in comparison to what we have seen from al-Qaeda – brought America into that conflict to stop the violence. So America does act when violence erupts – just not consistently (as can be seen in Africa). Sadly the rhetoric from the Surrendercrats and SurrenderMedia is feeding the rationalizations of the thugs that more violence will stave off their defeat.

So with the incentive in place from weak-kneed liberals in the West, it is very likely something violent and bloody will happen to grab America’s attention this summer. One of those things our enemies hope will bring the Surrendercrats into a position to turn tail from the region and our success, and allow the Islamists a break before they are eradicated, is war in the Middle East. The Islamists want to push forward in a grand fashion, and war with Israel and the West is one of their grandest dreams. Unfortunately there are lots of signs this may in fact happen:

As the world’s leading powers met in Shanghai Wednesday to discuss ways to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program, Israel and Iran were exchanging threats of war; Syria was marshalling its army near the Golan Heights; Hamas was attacking Israeli troops along the Gaza Strip; and Hezbollah was muttering about avenging the assassination two months ago of its top military commander.

Spring in the Middle East frequently raises fears of war. This year war fever is intense.

According to the Qatari newspaper al-Watan, political and media sources in Syria believe war may break out with Israel in late May or early June.

The two countries last week conducted civil-defence drills predicated on a summer war, and Syria’s military has been conducting manoeuvres along its border with Lebanon and Israel. Reservists have been called up and Syrian troops are said to be strung along a continuous crescent-shaped line from the central Lebanese mountains to the Israeli-held Golan Heights.

Some speculate the Syrian deployment may be a defensive move designed to discourage an Israeli counterattack if Hezbollah launches a revenge attack on Israel for the Feb. 12 assassination in Damascus of Imad Mughniyeh.

The axis of evil has only this summer to make any grand statement. Iran is being crippled by the economic pressure being applied by the West, which is now being piled on Syria too. al-Qaeda is on the ropes, as is the Taliban. It may be the extremists are going to have to go “all in” here soon as their one last big effort before the end. Something to remember as a possibly unavoidable scenario in the endgame in the war on terror. Our enemy is suicidal, so as they are pressed they can go insane instead of broken and can do anything to save their cause.

It is probable that events have been building towards this last gasp for some time. Clearly there have been actions taken to reduce the ability of the madmen to invoke their last chance plans – if they have such things. For example, there are more indications Israel took out a nuclear weapons facility in Syria last fall, which greatly reduces the chance that any war this summer will end with victory for the Islamo Fascists:

“There are things that I’m not prepared to talk about,” the Israeli prime minister told Yediot Achronot in an interview published Thursday after being asked to provide details on what was bombed in northern Syria on Sept. 6.

But, he continued, “I’ll say only this: To the best of my knowledge, the residents of Israel are not threatened by Syrian nuclear weapons.”

Nuclear weapons in the hands of Syrian or Iranian forces, or even worse their terrorist puppets, would have been a signal of incredible magnitude that few in the West would not notice. I find it interesting that Israel is making clear, as have Bush and the French, that there will not be a nuclear armed Iran in the world:

Olmert said that the international community including Israel is trying to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms capabilities. “And I believe, and also know, that the bottom line of these efforts is that Iran will not be nuclear,” Olmert told Haaretz.

“I want to tell the citizens of Israel: Iran will not have nuclear capability,” added Olmert.

Clearly some in the West have their heads on straight. If we are facing an ever desperate Islamo Fascist dead enders then we want them to be as hobbled as possible when the do execute any last ditch plans.

Sadly the Surrendercrats running for President have al-Qaeda’s Zawahiri promised would happen if the Surrendercrats do what they say they will do:

In an hour-and-a-half long audio-taped message Wednesday night, Al-Qaeda Deputy Commander Ayman al-Zawahri vowed that with Allah’s help, they would target Jews worldwide.

“We promise our Muslim brothers that we will do the best we can to harm Jews in Israel and the world over, with Allah’s help and according to his command,” said al-Qaeda’s second in command.

…

The deputy commander predicted that global jihad (”holy” war) would spread once the U.S. pulls out of Iraq.

“I expect the jihadi influence to spread after the Americans’ exit from Iraq and to move toward Jerusalem,” he said.

There you have it, if the Surrendercrats do what they both promised to do we get all out war in the region – leading to possibly World War III and the use of nuclear weapons by Israel. Surrendercrats promise to withdrawal troops from Iraq and al-Qaeda’s co-leader (with ties to Saddam and other radical leaders in the region from his days as the leader Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ)) promises that act will trigger war. How much clearer do the dots have to be for some folks? Do we need to apply them to a 2×4 first?

Zawahiri is actually the linch pin of much of this. His Egyptian Islamic Jihad terrorist group operated in Palestine and supposedly was funded by Iran according to Zawahiri’s home country of Egypt. Apparently he is the muscle to Bin Laden’s vision and money. I can easily see him working with Iran and Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas to bring about something bloody and spectacular to force the Surrendercrats to give al-Qaeda and their cousin organizations one last chance to survive and turn their fortunes around.

Now all they have is hope Surrendercrats will win in 2008. But that may be too late, so expect to see election year actions to push America to surrender Iraq sooner rather than later and ensure the election of a Surrendercrat. I don’t think that is what will happen in the minds of Americans, but I am pretty sure that is all the Jihadists see as their final option. They have misjudged Americans since 9-11, I see no reason indications they plan to stop screwing up now.

An upcoming joint US-Israel report on the September 6 IAF strike on a Syrian facility will claim that former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein transferred weapons of mass destruction to the country, Channel 2 stated Monday.

Big hat tip to Dr Sanity on this one. Dr Sanity also notes a good round up on this over at Shrink Wrapped. And there are some good links provided by Rick Moran at American Thinker. If this pans out it would provide another big upheaval in the American political dynamics, destroying again the naive mantra of the left in this country. This would be another huge blow to the credibility of the Surrendercrats and SurrenderMedia (as if they have any credibility left). You can read my previous posts on Syria and the war on terror here.

Israel has admitted for the first time that an air strike in Syria last year was aimed at a nuclear facility built with assistance from North Korea.

The Japanese daily newspaper Asahi Shimbun cited sources at the Japanese foreign ministry for its report of a meeting between Ehud Olmert, the prime minister of Israel, and Yasuo Fukuda, his Japanese opposite number.

Mr Olmert is reported to have admitted that Israel carried out the bombing last September and that the target was a nuclear-related facility built using technical assistance from Pyongyang.

Given the architecture it was not a nuclear fuel processing plant like those in Iran. And it was not a nuclear power plant for civilian use. That leaves a nuclear weapons site. The one thing Iran is supposedly not pursuing since 2003, though they continue to create capacity to make the nuclear material for a bomb. So NK shows Syria how to build something with nuclear material that is conveniently being produced next door in Iran.

Is anyone connecting the dots or are hiding their heads in the sand pretending the dots aren’t there? How much evidence is required to take the threat seriously? BTW, does anyone think Syria would fail to claim the plant was peaceful if it could? It hasn’t – it wants to ignore the incident as much as Israel does. Telling.

In Bin Laden’s latest message he sounds desperate and frustrated. He even adopts a variant on what Bush said right after 9-11: which to me is very telling. But let’s look at the frustration Bin Laden has with his fellow Muslims, as he declares jihad on them!

Therefore through agitation and war we cease the might of the unbelievers so what is it that stops us from fighting in Allah’s cause? It is the innumerable chains that have been placed on us by the Christian-Zionist alliance through the rulers of the area, and they (rulers) on their part, through their scholars and media, have chained us.

It may be more obvious to others, but it took me a while to get the feelings behind this part of his statement. He has lamented the “siege” the Western non-believers have put on Palestine for a century. And he has noted the long fight with the Zionist and Christians. As we get into this part of the speech he is saying war and terrorism (I am sure that is what he means by “agitation”) is the only way to cease the siege of the unbelievers. And then he asks what is stopping us from success?

And here is where he lashes out at the rulers in the Arab states who he claims are allies with the Christians and Zionists. But not just them, he includes teachers and media as well as those who have used some kind of propaganda to weaken the fight, to ‘chain’ the cause. And this is interesting to me because it signals the opposite of victory. It hints at failure and some blame for that failure. As I said before on this, it sounds like a desperate call for help from Bin Laden, not a confident speech pushing his followers onto victory.

Despite this strong siege on you, there is a great opportunity to regain your freedom from subjection and subservience to this Christian-Zionist alliance. For that to happen, we will have to break free from the chains of disgrace and submission by which the workers of this alliance, the leaders of our countries and their followers, have chained us. We will have to set ourselves free from the chains of the scholars under these rulers and from the leaders of Islamic groups that believe it is acceptable to embrace the ruler of the country who has deceived the religion and joined the politics of the country whether it is with the ruling or the opposition.

The same applies to the other groups that have enlarged their cautiousness to such an extent that it reached the level of fear, making them sit back from participating in jihad, that act of worship which their ruler forbids and that is the summit of this religion. And it is the way to prevent the unbelievers from dismantling the siege on the Muslims.

This part is also interesting because he first asks the true believers to stand up to the forces in the Arab/Muslim states that are opposing terrorism, and then he goes after an interesting group – those on the sidelines neither fighting with al-Qaeda or fighting against them. Bin Laden needs recruits, and the only place he is going to get them is from this unaligned segment of the Muslim community – which is shrinking as more and more Muslims take up the cause in opposition of al-Qaeda and their ilk. I find it interesting not that he calls them out, but how he choses to ‘entice’ them to fight in his war:

This deadly siege started by Arab leaders providing support to America and the Zionist alliance on the Mujahideen in Palestine and this one of the things that nullifies their Islam for they are partners in this hideous crime. So the Muslims should abhor them and prey upon them; they should strive to remove them and be openly innocent as much as possible, and if they are not able, then at least be innocent in the heart.

…

In front of us there are three groups; the Mujahideen and those who support them, those who are sitting back from the jihad in the path of Allah and to help Palestine without excuse and the Christian-Zionist alliance and those who support it. And at their head are the rulers of the area and their evil scholars.

Happy is the one who is from the first group, may Allah make you and us happy. And deprived is the one who is from the second group that is far away from the victory of its religion. And dismal is who is from the last group, may Allah protect us and you from it.

This last part is a variation on Bush’s demand that ‘you are either with us, or against us’. We are at war folks. And until the enemy is completely vanquished we must not stop – because they will not stop. Surrender is what the losers do as a clear indication to the victors that the fighting can end without risk. Until the loser surrenders there is no indication that the fighting can safely be replaced with more reasonable (and common) forms of human interaction and disagreement. AQ is not done fighting.

While all this speculation into how good or bad it is going for al-Qaeda, one thing is clear. Their prime objective is winning Iraq:

It is not hidden from you that the closest battlefields of jihad to help our people in Palestine is the battleground of Iraq. So we should concentrate on it and help it. And the obligation of supporting them falls most on the Muslims in the nearby countries. And the people of Syria, the whole of Syria, should feel the greatness of Allah’s grace on them to carry out their obligation to help their Mujahideen brothers in Iraq. And this is a great opportunity for my emigrant brothers from Palestine, who have been forced from the splendor of Jerusalem, to remove the ideas of the groups and parties that are drowned in the polytheistic ploy of democracy, and to hurry to take their positions in the ranks of the Mujahideen in the Land of the Two Rivers. Victory from Allah will come to them by their struggle and trust in Allah and then they will proceed to the Holy Aqsa and the Mujahideen from outside will meet their brothers inside, bringing back the memory of Hittin that cooled the eyes of the Muslims with a great victory.

Anyone foolish enough to think Bin Laden is not praying and hoping that the Democrats will pull our troop strength down to the point al-Qaeda can rise back up again in Iraq is just not paying attention to anything but the mind-washing of liberal talking points. Bin Laden wants his caliphate in Baghdad, and he is pleading with Syria and Palestine to rush to that battlefield to help win back what al-Qaeda has lost.

Given how loose with reality both Obama (who does a real good Sgt Schulz when he claims he “knows nothing” about his racist, anti-american pastor) and Clinton (who dreams of dodging bullets in Bosnia, when in reality her and Chelsea were doing a meet-and-greet on the airport tarmac) are it makes no sense to listen to their spin on AQ and Bin Laden. We have the source and our own minds to figure out what he wants. He wants to fight and is now lashing out at the Muslim community for siding with his enemies. We have him ‘outside’ Islam, we just need to finish the job.

Update: Another sign of a desperate al-Qaeda in need of recruits:

On March 6, Al-Sahab, the media arm of al Qaeda, released a 46-minute video statement titled “They Lied: Now Is the Time to Fight.” The speaker is Mustafa Ahmed Muhammad Uthman Abu-al-Yazid, 52, an Egyptian who runs al Qaeda’s operations in Afghanistan, and the speech is in most respects the usual mix of earthly grievances, heavenly promises and militant exhortations. It’s also an urgent call for recruits.

“We call on the fathers and mothers not to become a barrier between their children and paradise,” says Abu-Al-Yazid. “If they disagree who should first join the jihad to go to paradise, let them compete, meaning the fathers and the children. . . . Also, we say to the Muslim wives, do not be a barrier between your husbands and paradise.” Elsewhere in the message, he makes a “special call to the scholars and students seeking knowledge. . . . The jihad arenas are in dire need of your knowledge and the doors are open before you to bring about the virtue of teaching and jihad.”

…

Last year, imprisoned Egyptian radical Sayyed Imam Al-Sharif, a.k.a. “Dr. Fadl,” published “The Document of Right Guidance for Jihad Activity in Egypt and the World.” It is a systematic refutation of al Qaeda’s theology and methods, which is all the more extraordinary considering the source.

…

Sayyed Imam is emphatic on the subject of the moral obligations of the would-be jihadist. “One who lacks the resources [to fight jihad] is forbidden to acquire money through forbidden means, like [burglary],” he says, adding that “Allah does not accept martyrdom as atonement for a mujahid’s debts.” As for a child’s obligations toward his parents, he adds that “it is not permitted to go out to fight jihad without the permission of both parents . . . because acting rightly with one’s parents is an individual obligation, and they have rights over their sons.”

“This has become pandemic in our times,” he adds in a pointedly non-theological aside. “We find parents who only learn that their son has gone to fight jihad after his picture is published in the newspapers as a fatality or a prisoner.”

AQ is so desperate they are willing to commit sins of Islam to try and survive – a sign the organization is on its last legs.

For many months, Bush administration officials have been imagining a valedictory conclusion to their long-running negotiations with North Korea: Pyongyang would make a “complete and correct declaration” about its nuclear program, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice would travel to North Korea to celebrate normalization of relations with a former member of the “axis of evil.”

But the North Korea breakthrough isn’t happening, and administration officials know they are running out of time before Bush leaves office.

…

What is blocking this breakthrough is North Korea’s refusal to explain its nuclear relationship with Syria. This remains one of the murkiest foreign-policy issues of the past year, but administration policymakers, intelligence officials and other analysts recently shed some new light on what happened.

…

American officials have begun to confirm publicly that they have hard intelligence about North Korean proliferation. Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, said in February 7 testimony to the House Intelligence Committee: “While Pyongyang denies a program for uranium enrichment and also denies its proliferation activities, we know North Korea continues to engage in both.” In a telephone interview this week, a senior intelligence official confirmed the Syria nuclear connection, saying: “Our suspicions are justified and valid. A lot of due diligence was done on this. People are confident.”

There are reasons the Bush administration is so completely opposed to Iranians being able to produce weapons grade uranium and the weapons themselves. Here are some dots for the left to ponder and provide a rational response to. Iran makes the weapons grade material, Syria builds the weapons. And AQ supporters in both Syria and Iran then can do what with them? They can smuggle them into Iraq, Lebanon and Israel – that is what they can do.

I know liberals can pretend these dots don’t exist or could never exist. The question is why would anyone deny the threat and not act to stop it?

uthorities fearing alleged Syrian links with terrorism are increasing security for ships sailing into US ports after making calls in Syria, an official said, as Washington raised pressure on Damascus.

The new measures come after Washington deployed warships near Syria in the eastern Mediterranean, stepped up sanctions on Syria and blacklisted men who allegedly used Syria to aid Al-Qaeda operations in Iraq.

State Department deputy spokesman Tom Casey said Syria was placed on a so-called “Port Security Advisory List” because of “concerns about the connections between Syria and international terrorist organizations.”

The move allows the US Coast Guard “to impose some additional port security measures to ships traveling to or arriving in US ports that have previously been either departing from Syria or have called on Syrian ports,” he said.

Something triggered the new scrutiny. My guess is there are hints being detected in our intelligence that indicates we need to keep an eye on ships visiting Syria. It is clear al-Qaeda feels the desperate need to send a signal to America leading up to our elections this year. Syria and Iran would probably agree with that sentiment.

Sadly the news of these new precautions will allow anyone trying to attack to make adjustments to circumvent the new scrutiny. Our press at work protecting our freedoms (but getting those Pulitzers!).

The Treasury Department said the sanctions would be imposed on Rami Makhluf, who was identified as a prominent Syrian businessman and close to the country’s Baath regime.

…

The Treasury Department order freezes any assets that Makhluf holds in U.S. financial institutions and prohibits U.S. citizens and firms from engaging in any business contacts with him.

Makhluf is the first cousin of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and is considered one of the most powerful and influential businessmen in Syria. The 39-year-old controls the country’s mobile phone network, SyriaTel, as well as other lucrative businesses.

…

Bush signed the executive order on Feb. 13, one day after Imad Mughniyah, one of the world’s most wanted and elusive terrorists, was killed in a car bombing in Syria nearly 15 years after dropping from sight.

A little googling and we find some of those ‘other lucrative businesses’ include owning ports which can be used to smuggle things – like weapons.

After Bachar al-Assad used his position as a Head of State to steal the country’s resources and entrust his relatives, Rami and Mohamed Makhouf, with all big economic projects, he now wants a legal cover for his exactions. So he adopted a series of decisions that entitles the private sector to invest in the public sector; that is how Rami Makhlouf was able to rent the port in Tartous using a Filipino company he owns. And what does this mean? This means that thousands of employees would lose their jobs and that the customs officers no longer have any power on products that enter the Syrian soil. This will soon be the case of the Ladikiyyeh Port, as is today the case of all duty free markets. And you do of course know that duty free markets are the best place to smuggle high custom duties and therefore make huge amounts of illicit money.

Rami Makhlouf was also given the chance to establish his own Airline, condemning to bankruptcy the Syrian Airlines so that al-Assad’s corrupted family could then control air transport as it is today controlling all road transports.

Well it did not take much more searching to link this man who can ship material by land and sea without government interference to weapons smuggling:

Col. Hafiz Makhluf , a senior official in the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate and a cousin of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, is also revealed here as the Assad clan’s senior contact-man with the Syrian tycoon Rami Makhluf and controller of the sale and transfers of Syrian weapons to terrorists in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority.

Nice to have a brother who heads the Syrian General Intelligence Directorate. This Examiner article from 2006 was very prescient in naming names and identifying a secret Syrian nuclear program:

The Iraq Survey Group is calling for open negotiations with Syria, but new reports show that Damascus is up to no good. Indeed, while world attention is rightly focused on the nuclear capabilities of Iran and North Korea, Syria has been quietly — but quickly — advancing its own secret nuclear program.

…

But what really broke the camel’s back was a recent report from the well-informed Kuwaiti daily newspaper Al Seyassah. It quoted European intelligence sources as saying that “Syria has an advanced nuclear program” in a secret site located in the province of Al Hassaka, close to the Turkish and Iraqi borders. British sources quoted by the paper believe that “it is President Assad’s brother, Colonel Maher Assad and his cousin Rami Makhlouf, who supervise the program.”

Why is the US only now taking actions against this madman? We all know the recent news about the nuclear site Israel blew up in Syria. Also recall there were suggestions that Mughniyah was in Damascus to discuss attacks on neighboring Arab states with Iran, Syria and Islamic Jihad. This must be a warning to Assad and his cronies to step back from the brink and get control of something before things get real bad. BTW – is it coincidence that Makhlouf owns Syria’s largest mobile phone company with service into Lebanon? I think not.

North Korea helped Syria build an underground nuclear reactor in the Middle East country, a South Korean news report said Monday.

“The U.S. government has circumstantial (evidence) that the North provided technology assistance to build an underground reactor in Syria,” South Korea’s Hankook Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified diplomatic channel.

My bet is that unidentified channel leads through the South Korean government. More here on the story. But that is about all I have seen on this news. If true we have a problem I described at the time where Iran and Syria and North Korea could be performing a head fake. With all eyes on Iran and their ‘civilian’ nuclear program it seems the weapon’s program – supposedly abandoned by Iran in 2003 – may have simply been moved to Syria. One group working on the fuel (Iran) and another on the weapon design (the easier part, Syria).

To people who do not understand how nuclear weapons work it might seem backwards to say the weapon is easy once you have the nuclear material for the bomb – but the mechanisms and designs to trigger a mass of nuclear material is actually quite straightforward after the basic approach was worked out during WW II. But don’t take my word for it. David Kay, who is a UN Nuclear Inspector who searched Iraq, discusses this fact in a recent interview regarding the infamous NIE that came out about Iran’s nuclear program last fall:

There was a footnote to it that a lot of people missed if they were reading just the press reports of it. It turns out what they call a “nuclear weapons program” is just the design work on the actual warhead itself. Actually, the U.S. National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell testified this week that the weapons design work, particularly for an early- generation weapon, is the least important part of a nuclear-weapons program. What’s important is the fissile material and in the case of Tehran, the enriched uranium. That’s the real core of a nuclear-weapons program. And there’s no doubt that activity continues.

It also may not be a big challenge to build the nuclear trigger if rumors are true that Bill Clinton’s bungling administration actually gave Iran plans to build the trigger – which means they have the pieces they just need to see if they can design a version that flies on a missile.

An alliance of Syria, Iran and North Korea working together to arm the Middle East with nuclear weapons (and area fond of ‘martyring’ its people to prove a political point) would demonstrate an alliance as dangerous as the Nazi-Italian-Japanese Axis of the 1930′s and 1940′s, which gave us WW II. To try and obtain those kinds of weapons in a coordinated inter-state manner like the one I described would be a very serious threat to the world. And it seems the region knows it is a threat:

Syria is facing turbulent times in its relations with the outside world and its place in a region where rival powers have been competing for power and influence.

It is technically in a permanent state of war with one of its neighbours and has seen wars rage in two of its other neighbours lately.

Its closest ally is often threatened with war over its nuclear programme and its relations with the Arab world’s heavyweights have been far from cordial.

…

Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia look at Syria’s relations with Iran with deep concern, and their leaders have at times spoken publicly about it. This has even been reflected in news media affiliated with the governments of the trio, which have harshly criticised, and at times attacked, the Syrian government and its top officials.

Given al-Qaeda’s endless blood lust and willingness to massacre Muslims it would unnerve anyone to contemplate these brutal savages looking to martyr themselves armed with nukes of any variety. What I fear is how the world will test the next President and Congress – which seems to regular right of passage for each of our elections. For the Democrat Congress we saw the bloodshed in Iraq skyrocket so they would perform as al-Qaeda wanted and would run in full retreat. It was a test they failed and Bush won, because it is now al-Qaeda who is the enemy of Islam in Iraq, not its future. I am sure the next round of tests for the free world will be even more difficult to pass.

But it just might be coming soon. The assassination of long time Hezbollah terrorist Mughniyah in Damascus Syria this week brought another groups of thugs into the limelight and political debate in the Middle East. In response to the assassination Hezbollah is preparing for war with Israel, being the country Hezbollah thinks took out their head thug:

The Lebanese newspaper A-Safir reported Saturday that the Lebanon-based guerilla group Hezbollah has deployed 50,000 “activists” along the southern border with Israel and declared a state of high alert in southern Lebanon.

According to the report, the organization has also evacuated all buildings in the area designated for social or political purposes in recent days, in preparation for a confrontation with Israel in the wake of the assassination of Hezbollah terror chief Imad Mughniyah.

Mughniyah, the organization’s deputy secretary general, was killed in a blast in an upscale Damascus neighborhood late Tuesday. On Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah blamed Israel for the assassination and vowed to retaliate. Israel denied any involvement in the incident.

As I noted in previous posts Mughniyah was apparently meeting with Iranian, Syrian and Islamic Jihad elements to plan an attack on a neighboring Arab State. I believe this would be Iraq as a last ditch attempt to destabilize that budding democracy in the heart of the Middle East. And this collusion appears to be continuing, as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claim Hezbollah will soon destroy Israel:

Mohammad Ali Jafari, whose cadre is the elite force of Iran’s ruling mullahs, said in a letter published Monday that last week’s assassination of Hezbollah’s terrorist commander Imad Mughniyeh was the beginning of the end for the Jewish state.

“In the near future, we will witness the destruction of the cancerous existence of Israel by the powerful and competent hands of the Hezbollah fighters,” Jafari wrote.

Of course the Surrendercrats under Pelosi in The House of Representatives picked now to blind our intelligence capabilities in the NSA by putting a judge in the role of commander-in-chief or general to fight our war on terror and protect our forces in Iraq and our ally Israel. Given Iran’s nuclear program now is not a good time to lose track of whacked Hezbollah martyrs lining up on the border of Isreal. Something is coming to a head in the ME – and we all know what the Surrendercrats will answer with – “runaway”.

But I am not so sure the pending showdown will go Hezbollah’s way (if we are lucky) and it will not re-enforce support for Jihad and other bloody madness. All the decades of bombings have brought nothing to the Palestinians or the thugs in Iran and Syria. For example, look at how things played out in Kuwait regarding the assassination:

The Kuwaiti government called on rival Muslim factions to show restraint on Monday after a rally by minority Shiites to mourn the slain commander of Lebanon’s Hezbollah took a sectarian turn.

“I call on the media and citizens to leave this issue to the government,” said government spokesman Faisal al-Hajji, adding that the cabinet had taken legal measures to ensure “the security and stability of Kuwaiti society” but without giving details.

His comments follow a Shiite rally at which Imad Mughnieh was lauded as a “martyr hero” by Shiite MP Adnan Abdulsamad. The rally was condemned by Sunni MPs and organisations, who in turn branded Mughnieh a “terrorist” and a “criminal”.

They described Saturday’s rally as a “provocation” to the Kuwaiti people.

The cabinet, following its weekly meeting, condemned organisers of the rally for glorifying a “terrorist whose hands were stained with the blood of innocent martyrs and who was behind many terrorist and criminal attacks”.

The cabinet also accused Mughnieh of hijacking a Kuwaiti passenger plane in 1988 that led to the killing of two Kuwaiti men whose bodies were dumped on the tarmac of Larnaca airport in Cyprus.

Don’t forget the Shiites in Iraq, as well as the Sunnis, have taken the brunt of al-Qaeda’s butchers. It is one thing to champion a fight against the evil and decadent west, it is another to suffer the jackboot and bombs of fanatics. Clearly something is going to happen soon if Hezbollah and Iran can be taken at their word – but I am not sure it will play out as conventional wisdom once expected. And who knows, maybe some people who have grown tired with the endless bloodshed will step forward and provide intel that will defuse what is coming.

Mike McConnell, head of National Intelligence, has this to say about the dangers the democrats have put us in by allowing all the changes we have made to FISA since 9-11, which have kept us safe, to lapse and be undone in one sad day of political opportunism:

Some have claimed that expiration of the Protect America Act would not significantly affect our operations. Such claims are not supported by the facts. We are already losing capability due to the failure to address liability protection. Without the act in place, vital programs would be plunged into uncertainty and delay, and capabilities would continue to decline. Under the Protect America Act, we obtained valuable insight and understanding, leading to the disruption of planned terrorist attacks. Expiration would lead to the loss of important tools our workforce relies on to discover the locations, intentions and capabilities of terrorists and other foreign intelligence targets abroad. Some critical operations, including our ability to adjust to dynamic terrorist threats that exploit new methods of communication, which sometimes requires assistance from private parties, would probably become impossible. And the difficulties we face in obtaining this essential help from private parties would worsen significantly if the act expires or is merely extended without addressing this issue. Without long-term legislation that includes liability protection, we will be delayed in gathering — or may simply miss — intelligence needed to protect the nation.

These circumstances can be avoided. The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, after an in-depth review of our operations, recognized on a bipartisan basis the importance of providing liability protection to those who assisted our nation in a time of great need. The committee’s report stated that “without retroactive immunity, the private sector might be unwilling to cooperate with lawful government requests in the future without unnecessary court involvement and protracted litigation. The possible reduction in intelligence that might result from this delay is simply unacceptable for the safety of our Nation.”

Emphasis mine, but the statement comes from a Democrat led Senate committee and had overwhelming support from both Dems and Reps. Clearly there is concern that we just had a blindfold put over our eyes by a shrill and politically paranoid House Leadership who spend more time and energy fighting George Bush than al-Qaeda and terrorists. My previous thoughts on this debacle are here and here.

But right now is a really bad time to be blinded or delayed in getting our eye (or ears) on targets. That is because something is brewing in the ME with the assassination of a Hezbollah leader who is touted as the original Bin Laden. I discussed this horrific nexus of events in a previous post which showed why having the Democrat led House impair our defenses was putting our forces in Iraq and around the world at grave risk.

The news surrounding the result of this assassination are disturbing. First off we see Syria meeting with terrorists groups right after the assassination – why would they meet with all these groups which were reported to be preparing attacks on neighboring Arab states? One target could be Iraq and our forces there.

We see Jews around the world on high alert for an attack, which could set the ME back into conflict.

And Hizbollah forces are now on high alert preparing for a war with Israel.

Given all these threats to our forces overseas and our allies in the ME one would think the Democrats could put aside their Bush Derangement Syndrome and wake from their silly delusional paranoia that the entire US military complex is focused on defeating liberals here in the US. But somehow they cannot wake up from their little fantasy world were the US is at war with them and not with al-Qaeda. If they can pull themselves together and focus on the real enemy overseas then America will relegate them to the dustbin of history – gladly.

A Kuwaiti newspaper reports that Hizbullah terrorist chief Imad Mughniyeh, who was killed in a car-bomb attack in Damascus on Tuesday, was in the midst of planning major terrorist attacks in moderate Arab countries when he was killed.

Al-Watan reports that American intelligence had learned that Mughniyeh arrived in Damascus three days earlier with instructions from, and in coordination with, the Iranians. His objective was to meet with Hizbullah leaders and coordinate a mass attack, for which he was to receive help from Syrian intelligence.

…

Another Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Siasa, reports that Mughniyeh took part, shortly before he was killed, in a secret meeting in the Iranian School in Damascus. Also participating in the meeting were Syrian Intelligence Chief Gen. Aisaf Shwackath, Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal, and an Islamic Jihad representative. On the agenda: planned attacks in Arab countries that refuse to take part in the coming Arab League summit in Damascus.

You know that if this is a valid story that the NSA surveillance played a huge role in getting the intelligence on this attack before it happened. What a grand day for the Democrats to tie the hands of our surveillance efforts overseas by not renewing the FISA changes that have kept this nation safe from attack ever since 9-11 (something most people would have said would be impossible at the time of 9-11). And if there is any doubt this is a valid story then one only needs to look at brand new sanctions on Syria coming out of the White House:

Meanwhile, US President George W. Bush has ordered stricter economic sanctions against Syria, the White House announced in an executive message to Congress.

The order to freeze the assets of people held responsible for actions that “undermine efforts to stabilize Iraq” came Wednesday, the day before Mughniyeh’s burial.

What we seem to have detected here is an Iranian/Syrian/Hezbollah/Islamic Jihad plot to attack neighboring nations – maybe even Iraq. The Surrendercrats desperately need some excuse to cut and run from Iraq and hand the place over to Bin Laden so he can wage his now-declared war on Israel.

Many Americans may not remember but the current, soon to expire, fixes to FISA were due to a FIS Court judge trying to expand the powers of the judiciary and requiring proof of threat and warrants to monitor just people overseas (forget about the original FISA-NSA dust up about how to handle leads on terrorist cells in the US detected by NSA monitoring of overseas threats). This kind of threat against our forces in Iraq was fair game prior to 9-11, but the idiots on the left are so damn paranoid (like anyone cares what the babble on about?) they have moved to make ALL surveillance illegal in case they may be caught up in the intel net (which is what happens every day in this country with warranted surveillance – innocent people get listened in on). Why should this nation cater to these paranoid delusions and let our military forces be at risk of an attack?

The liberal left is going for broke on this in an election year when they had a chance at the WH. It will soon become evident they have nothing but paranoid delusions and the WH has years of foiled attacks to show why we need to keep an eye on our enemies who have sworn to die trying to kill us in large numbers. And if you want more evidence the threat is real and we need our defenses at full capability just realize the nation is now on alert for attack – while Dems try and blind us to pending attacks:

The FBI put its terror squads on alert for attacks against Jewish targets after a Hezbollah leader died in a car bomb blast in Syria.

The FBI said Thursday that it had instructed its Joint Terrorism Task Forces in 101 communities across the United States to ask Jewish institutions to look out for signs of heightened dangers.

Hezbollah blamed Israel for the killing this week of Imad Mughniya, a terrorist believed responsible for hundreds of American, Israeli and Jewish deaths dating back to the 1980s.

Want to know how suicidally stupid Pelosi and liberal friends are – they also see the same intel reports as the President.

A Hezbollah commander suspected in some of the deadliest terrorist attacks of the last 25 years and a reputed role model for Osama bin Laden has been killed in Syria, Hezbollah TV said Wednesday.

Imad Mughniyeh died in an explosion in a residential section of the Syrian capital, Damascus, said Hezbollah’s television station, Al-Manar.

…

Western intelligence agencies long suspected Mughniyeh in the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, that killed 63 people, according to a 2001 CNN report. He also was suspected in the truck bombing that year of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, an attack that killed 241 people and preceded the U.S. military withdrawal from Lebanon.

Before the September 11 terrorist attacks, U.S. officials had blamed Mughniyeh for the deaths of more Americans around the world than any other terror suspect, CNN reported in 2001. A month after the attacks in the U.S., the FBI debuted its Most Wanted Terrorists list with Mughniyeh on it.

Good riddance to the scum.

But one recent defender, and I am predicting driving force, behind the NIE is something very different. Here is his comment defending the NIE.

A top US intelligence official on Saturday issued an unusual statement responding to the critics.

“The task of the Intelligence Community is to produce objective, ground truth analysis,” said Donald Kerr, the principal deputy director of national intelligence.

“We feel confident in our analytic tradecraft and resulting analysis in this estimate,” Kerr said in a brief written statement.

This is quite odd. First off there is very little ‘ground truth’ in the NIE outside the claim Iran suspended in 2003 their illegal weapons program to design nuclear warheads to fit on missiles. All other matters of import (did Iran restart the program, is the civilian program progressing them towards nuclear weapons, did Syria pick up some of the weapons production work, is Iran still smuggling parts and material for weapons) are unknown – and I say that with high confidence.

I did some looking into Kerr and was surprised to find someone I would probably admire and call a kindred spirit. Here is one of his many bios demonstrating a successful career and deep science background. From many articles, like this one, I can easily see the man has been pushing new technologies on a lumbering and change-adverse federal government. Since this is what I do too I ma very hesitant to find adverse political intentions or biases with Kerr. But this defensive posture is telling.

Kerr may be good intentioned and applying new technology and methods to intelligence. He is the kind of person who would take the data mining concept demonstrated on Able Danger and integrate it operationally into the backbone of US intelligence sources. But his intentions could have blinded him to the motives of others. I still think this was a blunder by the way it caught the White House off guard. And it may be a blunder of multiple dimensions.

Many of us have asked how could the intel that has been leaked to shore this NIE up (which of course is another sign this was a blunder and maybe something more) could overturn all the other evidence seen over the years. And now maybe I can envision what happened.

If the Intel is based on a new technology or new synthesis method (like data mining used on Able Danger) then it could have produced a result that would be totally at odds with previous assessments. And it could produce that surprise result one of three ways:

(1) The new processes actually discovered something new that also imparts high confidence.

(2) The new processes has a hidden flaw in it that caused an innocently arrived at mistaken conclusion.

(3) The new processes was manipulated by some to generate a result that met the desires of a few to influence the policy and politics of this country (which is not something intel is allowed to do, for good reasons).

OK, all this supposes Kerr is stilling doing what he has done for years, apply new technology or technology in news ways to increase the productivity and quality of whatever mission he is working on. I think this is a safe assumption. We keep reading different pieces of the intel, but they are all suspect or potentially suspect (defectors are especially dicey since what happened with Iraq). So what could be so different now – especially when the NIE doesn’t say much different from the one in 2005, except it has literally been spun to present a different initial impression.

Here is one more reason why I think there is a rogue element behind this – and that is because the NIE was made public through blackmail:

The “jungle telegraph” in Washington is booming with news of the Iran NIE. I am told that the reason the conclusions of the NIE were released is that it was communicated to the White House that “intelligence career seniors were lined up to go to jail if necessary” if the document’s gist were not given to the public. Translation? Someone in that group would have gone to the media “on the record” to disclose its contents.

Kerr’s defensiveness is interesting. He is an engineer/scientist – not a political animal. But he is also adept at getting along with the careerists, building bridges. That is the only way he could lead these various organizations and succeed in his goal to infuse new technology and processes into their missions. Was he duped? Or was this all an effort to push Iran to come clean (which they still haven’t done!). Did the NIE open Iran to pressure to show it is benign?

Elaborate trick on Iran or on the American people? The concept of this being ‘ground truth’ is ludicrous beyond the headline finding, but I guess it is a possibility. What is clear is Kerr is not an intelligence analyst as much as a technologists. And I would gather he is not a political animal. Which means he could have been suckered by some with less than pure intentions. Kerr could be the key here. His sense of responsibility and frankness (another characteristic of someone with his gifts and history) might be where we finally get our answers. I would keep and eye (and a microphone) on Kerr in the coming days.