Early voting patterns are showing two things – lots of voters are coming out, and many more are ‘democrats’. Here is a list of stories that show that early voting trends are indicating record voter turnout – which cannot be solely due to Democrats in the end. But the message is clear – if you [...]

Is the SS Obama starting to sink? Are independents and moderate left Democrats jumping ship? Who knows, but this is interesting: Since I started writing speeches more than ten years ago, I have always believed in the Democratic Party. Not anymore. Not after the election of 2008. This transformation has been swift and complete and [...]

If Obama loses PA he is in deep trouble. The public polls show an Obama blow out, but behind the scenes rumors persist: Tonight we spoke with a friend from Hillary Clinton’s campaign who is now working for McCain/Palin — and is specifically working with Democrats for McCain in Pennsylvania. We worked with her in [...]

OK, this has got to be the most bizarre news I have seen in my lifetime of watching politics: Six hours after the release of information by API on the planned broadcast by Fox News Network of the Michelle Obama tape, in accordance with an agreement that has been reached between API and Fox News Network, [...]

I know I am an unknown and anonymous blogger whose mathematical skills can easily be questioned, but it is just strange to see how slow some light bulbs are turning on in the news media. As I noted last night, the poll confusion is not confusing at all.  There are two families of polls out [...]

I am an ex-democrat conservative, which puts me in great company with the likes of Ronald Reagan,  and others. To have once been a die-hard Democrat is to understand the left and be able to emphasize (not necessarily agree) with their views. To be a conservative independent is to understand the left is not always [...]

McCain has allowed some of the campaign’s internal poll information to come out to the public – probably to give hope and energy to his base and generate some news.  I am sure both objectives will be achieved. Here are the more interesting tidbits: The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states … with [...]

When NASA or the DoD need to track a satellite we use multiple parallel models to account for gravity, solar pressure, the height and drag of the atmosphere (what little there is at orbital altitudes) and a variety of other models. We update the measurements in all these factors and run statistical models, weighting newer [...]

Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models. The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like [...]

Later tonight I will be doing the second “Nightly Bi-Poller Report” and it will be an interesting post because Gallup has come out today with a stunning poll for their ‘traditional’ (i.e., historically proven) turnout model: Even Gallup’s fanciful ‘Extended’ turnout model took a huge dip. The electorate is giving me gray hairs, but they [...]

Pew has come out with another one of those fanciful polls assuming a never before seen historic edge in Democrat turnout models.  The bottom line is Pew has Obama up 15% nationally, but to pull this off Obama needs to see Democrats turnout ahead of conservatives and the GOP by a crazy 39%-24% edge – [...]

I knew the 2001 audio tape of Obama lamenting the fact our Constitution doesn’t invite socialistic and marxist dogma to become law easily was not going to be good for The Messiah. I was also stunned that this Harvard educated lawyer (seems anyone can get one of those parchments) did not realize the Supreme Court [...]

I wanted to pass along an observation to the women of America that I hold dear, probably because I am the father of 3 wonderful young ladies who I want to see grow up to their full potential, whatever that is. I want them to be free to be who they are, and not be [...]

Update: As of 7:20 PM Eastern this audio tape has had just under 1.5 million runs on YouTube – the message is getting out! – end update Update from LJStrata – moving this back to the top post. Everyone must hear this radio show with BO in his own  voice. A tape from 2001 exposes [...]

Well, since I noticed there are two families of polls out there, and only one family will be proven right next Wednesday, I have decided to take the RCP average for the national polls and split it into the “traditional” poll of polls and the “extended” poll of polls. My original posts on what the [...]