Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models. The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like […]

The polls in PA running up to the final day are nothing short of stunning. The most leftward poll out there – the Morning Call which doesn’t do any party ID weighting in its samples – has seen Obama’s leads shaved severely from somewhere around 15% to 8% (no one is keeping a history of […]

We come to it at last. The final weekend, the final push, the final group of voters to decide. And the headline news is McCain finally pulling ahead in a national poll (if only for a day). “Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. […]