OK, I have been watching Democrats fall like dominoes all over the place with a distant pleasure. But it is not until you see a big one fall near your home before you actually feel the rumble of that tsunami coming down in your bones: A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District, […]

The poll that made headlines in PA when it came out by showing a surprise 3% lead for Democrat Joe Sestak is now, less than a week later, showing GOP contender Pat Toomey running away with the race (click to enlarge): Which, as I noted yesterday, is in line with the early voting trends in […]

Major Updates Below! Here is a quick post on the Gallup Generic Ballot numbers just out (click to enlarge). The latest numbers show a slight tightening in the “likely” voter models, but nothing that could save the Democrats at this juncture. Assuming there is still a 2-3% underestimation in the Gallup numbers verses the final […]

While I await the latest Gallup generic ballot bombshell, I have some data to show in PA which looks to squelch the idea of any Democrat surge or tightening of races. It comes from two sources: the Morning Call daily tracking poll and the Early Voting tallies presented by Politico this morning. Everyone may recal […]

Well, we hit a major milestone this evening when the Strata-Sphere hosted its 5 millionth visitor. I humbly thank all you great and kind folks who stop by and partake in my rants and raves each day. And I also want to thank those who have donated to the site this month, it came at […]

I wanted to really ascertain which party was more motivated to vote (or more successful in the GOTV) using a common measurement that avoids turnout model speculation. In my mind, if a party is outperforming its 2010 registered-voter percentage, then it is has to be enjoying a edge in voter enthusiasm. Even more importantly, if […]

The ‘home town” of our young and inexperienced president is becoming a perfect example of what this election cycle is all about. The early voting trends in the larger Chicago area are indicating a horrible election for Democrats across the nation: Let’s look at early voting, for instance, and the fact that for the first […]

It seems the big October surprise, meant to influence this year’s US elections, comes from traitorous foreigners who (a) got their hands on 100’s of thousands of classified military documents and (b) dumped them on the public 12 days before a pivotal election. The whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks today released a trove of classified reports that […]

While the GOP still has the enthusiasm advantage, the Dem’s GOTV apparatus is also in full gear. Even with the GOTV gearing up, beating the GOP enthusiasm (more like angry rejection in this cycle) is hard to overcome. Emotion does not outperform process. It is the difference between running a play but failing to ‘win […]

A few outlier polls and everyone thinks the dynamic sent in motion over the past two years of arrogant DC liberals running amok has just disappeared in one week. Very fanciful, if not fictional. Data is meant to be integrated and balanced, not over reacted to at each data point. This is how we get […]