I wanted to really ascertain which party was more motivated to vote (or more successful in the GOTV) using a common measurement that avoids turnout model speculation. In my mind, if a party is outperforming its 2010 registered-voter percentage, then it is has to be enjoying a edge in voter enthusiasm. Even more importantly, if [...]

The ‘home town” of our young and inexperienced president is becoming a perfect example of what this election cycle is all about. The early voting trends in the larger Chicago area are indicating a horrible election for Democrats across the nation: Let’s look at early voting, for instance, and the fact that for the first [...]

It seems the big October surprise, meant to influence this year’s US elections, comes from traitorous foreigners who (a) got their hands on 100′s of thousands of classified military documents and (b) dumped them on the public 12 days before a pivotal election. The whistle-blowing website WikiLeaks today released a trove of classified reports that [...]

While the GOP still has the enthusiasm advantage, the Dem’s GOTV apparatus is also in full gear. Even with the GOTV gearing up, beating the GOP enthusiasm (more like angry rejection in this cycle) is hard to overcome. Emotion does not outperform process. It is the difference between running a play but failing to ‘win [...]

A few outlier polls and everyone thinks the dynamic sent in motion over the past two years of arrogant DC liberals running amok has just disappeared in one week. Very fanciful, if not fictional. Data is meant to be integrated and balanced, not over reacted to at each data point. This is how we get [...]

Folks, polls are fickle things. One PPP poll showing significantly more Democrat turnout than 2008 and 2006 is not a trend. It is shoddy polling. Then another PA polling group comes out and announces “Joe Sestak Has Lead” – even while the results are a statistical tie at best (+/- 5%). That same hyper-ventilated poll [...]

In what has to be a ‘last straw’ moment for PUBLIC radio (e.g., our tax dollars hard at work), NPR has fired Juan Williams for being concerned about Muslim terrorists, after our government announced a high threat level from … wait for it … Muslim terrorists: The move came after Mr. Williams, who is also [...]

We are getting actual data now due to early voting, and it shows a GOP enthusiasm blow out when compared to either proportions of voter registration rolls or proportions of votes in previous elections. The first indication we have of an enormous wave is in PA, where Politico is reporting early voting is swinging heavily [...]

A new Survey USA poll out shows long term incumbent Boxer in serious trouble. Even in a normal year any incumbent polling below 50% is in trouble, and when polling near or below 45% is typically not going to pull it out (because 55% of the voters have already decided to not vote for the [...]

This is the way election sites should be set up in the internet age. This North Carolina Transparency Project has incredible site to quickly review the electoral make up and status for the state. It concisely communicates an incredible wealth of information. All states should be producing something like this. For example, you can compare [...]

Lot’s of head shaking going on with PPP’s ‘unique’ senate poll in PA. PPP has Sestak jumping to a one point lead over Toomey, after months of trailing. However, Jim Geraghty noted a very strange turnout model in the late PPP poll, with Dems out performing their 2008 turnout by a whopping 4%! In 2008 [...]

You throw one down and vote ‘em out, 98 Democrat seats on the wall! With two weeks remaining until Election Day, the political map has expanded to put Democrats on the run across the country – with 99 Democratic-held House seats now in play, according to a POLITICO analysis, and Republicans well in reach of [...]

Signals, signals, signals. There are so many red flashing lights for the Democrats this cycle it is hard to keep track of them all. What I find the most interesting is the struggle to predict the voter turnout, and thus assess the accuracy of all the polls out there. Even more humorous are those analysts [...]

It would seem few Democrats are going to be safe this November, given some of the incumbents we now see on the ropes. Take CA-47 as a prime example: Van Tran is tied with Loretta Sanchez on the ballot test. Fully 39% of likely voters say they are supporting Van Tran, while 39% are backing [...]

In my previous post on the ‘most likely of voters‘ (those who requested absentee ballots and only have to submit them to transition to a ‘true voter‘ status) should not be underestimated or dismissed out of hand. The data from Nevada indicates a high probability that most pollsters are way off in their predictions for [...]