Will historians look back on this election on ponder exactly what was it that pushed a centrist like McCain into the White House over liberal Obama? If so they may find this little ditty emblematic of where Obama stumbled (H/T Powerline). And while listening to this note that McCain’s internal polls indicate he will win […]

Just a little over a day before election day and Obama is fading fast in key battleground states and in the EC projections. A month ago Obama was projected to have a 330-175 Electoral College blow out. But now he has seen once strong battleground states drop into ties this weekend. Take VA, which is […]

Another 2 point lead for Obama in a national poll which translates into the race being all tied up, and by the most accurate polling firm from 2004: The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the […]

Is McCain heading towards a landslide? Is Obama going to lose New Jersey and California? Well if you believe this audio then this is what internal GOP polls are saying. A blogger pulled out the salient numbers: New Jersey: McCain leads 48 to 43, with 7% undecided. Michigan: McCain leads 44 to 42, with 10% […]

A lot of people claim there is no last minute surge for McCain – yet we see Obama slipping in PA, VA and now Ohio – with a poll showing McCain in the lead by 2%. Those who claim not to see a surge away from Obama in these final days must be looking the […]

Another leading polling expert, this time for the Washington Post, comes clean about the uncertainties in the voter turnout models which have produced Obama leads of +2 (a tie) to +15 in the same week from different pollsters. A must read for Americans so they understand why polls usually get the race wrong (only 1 […]

If the early voting trends are a hint of what is to come on Tuesday then the news is not great for Obama. In Wisconsin (deep blue normally) early voting is up – across the board. It is up by 25% in democrat heavy big cities, and up 40-50% in GOP havens outside the cities: […]

Yesterday I noted PA was starting to drift rightward with a lot of polls showing Obama’s once commanding lead cut in half. In fact Obama lost another point in the Morning Call daily poll, now down to a 7% lead, even though Morning Call has held massive Party ID edges for the democrats (they don’t […]

The polls in PA running up to the final day are nothing short of stunning. The most leftward poll out there – the Morning Call which doesn’t do any party ID weighting in its samples – has seen Obama’s leads shaved severely from somewhere around 15% to 8% (no one is keeping a history of […]

We come to it at last. The final weekend, the final push, the final group of voters to decide. And the headline news is McCain finally pulling ahead in a national poll (if only for a day). “Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. […]