There are tons of individual races which can be indicators of how the election will play out – but there is one state (mine of course) which will measure the level of the wave right after the polls close at 7 PM Eastern. These results may be earlier than most other states and will be […]

There is a lot of speculation on what the turnout model is going to be this election cycle. Will it be like 2008 with high Democrat turnout? Will it be like 1994 with high GOP turnout? Or will it be something brand new – a wave of voter anger fueled by the centrists and Tea […]

Last week was interesting because, just as Rasmussen was detecting a bizarre shift to the Democrats in his ‘likely voter’ generic congressional ballot question (down to a +3% for the GOP), Gallup finally released its ‘likely voter‘ generic poll (two actually) showing a +13-18% GOP tsunami. It was doubly interesting since Rasmussen had been showing […]

Alternate Title: Doubling Down On Stupid Update: As Ed Morrissey notes, when the New York Times calls foul, is must really be foul – end update Watching the Sunday shows this past weekend I think the topic which had me most disgusted with the Democrats was the crap about the Chamber of Commerce supposedly funneling […]

There has been a serious bout of denial in the media of late, with stories about a resurgent Democrat Party somehow holding the House and saving Nancy Pelosi’s failed Spearkership. Ain’t going to happen. As Nate Silver has noted the GOP has been marching towards a higher and higher probability of a GOP take over […]

Update: Hotline has compiled a list of Dem House seats currently polling under 50% for the incumbent and they have tallied 66 such instances! And a staggeringly high number of Democratic incumbents are below the 50 percent mark, including members in much of the polling conducted by Democratic firms released to counteract the GOP narrative. […]

Fox News is out with some senate polls which should shift another state into the GOP column in the RCP average. First off, West-by-golly-Virginia: Deep resistance to Obama’s agenda has put a West Virginia Senate seat once thought to be safe territory for Democrats in serious jeopardy. A new Fox News battleground state poll on […]

Update: A new WaPo/ABC News poll shows the same trend Cost notes below – massive rejection of the Dems by Independents: Meanwhile, independents continue to lean heavily toward the GOP in their voting intentions, a sharp change from both 2006 and 2008. Among independent voters most likely to cast ballots this year, 53 percent say […]

I missed the launch of the Gallup likely voter generic ballot numbers earlier today (playing Mr. Mom to the twins), but it was worth the wait (click to enlarge). I still cannot fathom the impact of these numbers on House, Senate and Governor races, but I guarantee you no pollster’s current turnout models have been […]

While I tend to watch the RCP senate map to see where the November elections are heading, I think the Pollster.com senate picture is actually more accurate. The snapshot below (click to enlarge) is from today, and it represents the current state of play in the Senate much better in my opinion. Pollster.com shows the […]