Tag Archive '2012 elections'

Nov 05 2012

AJStrata’s Election Prediction

Major Update: Romney’s internal polls also confirm my predictions: Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source. Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up […]

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Nov 04 2012

Obama Still Sinking, Momentum Is Towards Romney Clear

Let me pose a few questions to those desperately trying not to see the momentum shift to Romney here in the final days of the 2012 election cycle. Is Florida turning redder or bluer? Is Virginia or North Carolina turning deep blue and moving out of Romney’s reach? Is Missouri once again within Obama’s reach […]

2 responses so far

Oct 31 2012

State Polls Trending Towards National Polls & Romney Win

Update 3: The folks over at Powerline rip Quinnipiac and their mind boggling fictional turnout model: discount the Quinnipiac results, however, because its sample consists of 35 percent Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. That’s a better split for the Dems than they enjoyed in 2008. There is little reason to believe that the Democrats will […]

3 responses so far

Oct 22 2012

Live Blogging Final 2012 Presidential Debate

The Battle in Boca! If I had to make a prediction before things get going I would say I expect the best Obama can do is come to another draw, and not stop the current trajectory of this race. The worst he can do is implode over Benghazi and the lack of enhancing security after: […]

2 responses so far

Oct 21 2012

Obama Entering The Incumbent Danger Zone

Update: Another poll out with Obama at 47% – end update One reason I feel confident Romney will win this year is the poll standing for Obama. As I have posted many times, Obama seems to have hit a ceiling and is now highly likely to lose on November 6. While some focus on the […]

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Oct 16 2012

Obama Keeps Sliding Into “Lame Duckness”

Major Update 2: A 2nd body-blow poll out from Gallup: Romney 50%, Obama 46%, and that means certain defeat if it holds. Major Update 1: A body-blow poll out from KOS: The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Obama 46 […]

4 responses so far

Oct 09 2012

Are 2010 Insurgent Voters Finally Engaging?

Update: Andrew Sullivan’s expression of shock tells me the current poll reversal has to be more than just a good/poor debate performance: Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And we are told that when Obama […]

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Oct 08 2012

Poll Turnout Models Are Confused

Published by under All General Discussions

Update: Ed Morrissey has some similar observations over at Hot Air. Ed catches something important that I missed: That’s even more true when one takes into consideration the sample breakdown in this poll.  It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8.  That’s more Democratic than 2008?s D+7, which took place in a cycle with […]

6 responses so far

Oct 05 2012

Ohio Early Voting Proves Insurgent Tea Party/Libertarian Vote Not Measured In Polls

Update: Hmmm, This is interesting: The first post-presidential debate poll in critical Ohio shows that Mitt Romney blunted President Obama’s momentum with his winning performance and is now leading the president among Ohioans who say that they are “certain” to vote. Overall, the race is deadlocked with Obama over Romney 50 percent to 49 percent, […]

5 responses so far

Aug 28 2012

White Rich Guy Who Demeans Women…

The Democrats will claim there is a rich white guy who demeans women (and will dump them when they need their partner most)…. They will prey on the idea men are self absorbed and will flee for greener pastures when times get tough (i.e., when cancer comes into the picture). Somehow I think that one […]

2 responses so far

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