Tag Archive 'Early Voting'

Nov 04 2012

Nevada Early Vote Indicates Possible Romney Win

Nevada has completed its early voting, and while Democrats have a slight lead in raw numbers, the GOP and Independents have also come out in force. Therefore, some reasonable turnout calculations show a possible Romney win. Here’s the math: Final vote tallies (ref here and here): Democrats: 307,877 (43.9%) Republicans: 259,913 (37%) Independents: 134,055 (19.1%) […]

9 responses so far

Nov 02 2012

Where Have All The Democrats Gone?

Updates Galore! – at the end of post A very interesting study is out from a left wing think tank that may have the explanation for why the polls are all skewed to Obama compared to what people see as a Romney surge on the ground and nationally. It has to do with a migration […]

2 responses so far

Oct 05 2012

Ohio Early Voting Proves Insurgent Tea Party/Libertarian Vote Not Measured In Polls

Update: Hmmm, This is interesting: The first post-presidential debate poll in critical Ohio shows that Mitt Romney blunted President Obama’s momentum with his winning performance and is now leading the president among Ohioans who say that they are “certain” to vote. Overall, the race is deadlocked with Obama over Romney 50 percent to 49 percent, […]

5 responses so far

Oct 26 2010

Another Look At The GOP Wave In The Early Voting

Update: Sean Trende at RCP does a similar form of analysis, gets similar answer. Update: Those not seeing the wave are blinded by denial – so says The Hill. And The Hotline concurs. Update: Read the analysis and then come back and check out this Hillbuzz rumor about moderate Democrats energized to vote straight GOP […]

13 responses so far

Oct 15 2010

The November Tsunami Is Arising From The Political Center!

There is a lot of speculation on what the turnout model is going to be this election cycle. Will it be like 2008 with high Democrat turnout? Will it be like 1994 with high GOP turnout? Or will it be something brand new – a wave of voter anger fueled by the centrists and Tea […]

14 responses so far

Nov 02 2008

Early Voting In Wisconsin Is NOT Giving Obama Or Dems An Edge

Published by under All General Discussions

If the early voting trends are a hint of what is to come on Tuesday then the news is not great for Obama. In Wisconsin (deep blue normally) early voting is up – across the board. It is up by 25% in democrat heavy big cities, and up 40-50% in GOP havens outside the cities: […]

3 responses so far

Oct 30 2008

Early Voting And Polls

For those interested in an expert opinion on early voting and polling drop by DJ Drummond today.

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Oct 29 2008

Everything You Ever Wanted To Know …

.. about early voting trends and exit polls can be found at the NY Times Caucus Blog.

One response so far

Oct 29 2008

Get Out And Vote!

Early voting patterns are showing two things – lots of voters are coming out, and many more are ‘democrats’. Here is a list of stories that show that early voting trends are indicating record voter turnout – which cannot be solely due to Democrats in the end. But the message is clear – if you […]

6 responses so far

Oct 27 2008

3rd Early Voting Indicator National Polls May Be Way Off – Now 4th!

Major Update: DJ Drummond (another poll skeptic like me) has discovered another indication that the poll weighting of party for party ID are nonsensical and Obama may be in some serious trouble. Before I get to DJ’s analysis I want to address comments about early voting typically being led by Republicans. While true, early voting […]

45 responses so far

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