Mark Halperin on Meet The Press (MTP) this morning just stated that the White House was quietly admitting to itself that Ted Kennedy’s seat is slipping away. As I suspected Obama’s trip is to try and limit the loss. Halperin also tried to claim the MA Special Election would not be any judgement on Obama’s […]

Whatever happens Tuesday, a legal reading of the MA laws regarding interim senators is clear: Interim Senator Paul Kirk is out of the Senate when the polls close Tuesday night, and therefore cannot vote on any legislation: Appointed Senator Paul Kirk will lose his vote in the Senate after Tuesday’s election in Massachusetts of a […]

Updates Below Late last night some more information trickled out regarding the state of the MA Special Election race between Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R). One of the more interesting articles was this one in the Boston Globe regarding polls, independents and turnout models: Independent voters in Massachusetts are an unpredictable breed and […]

Looks like it could very well be a historic wipe out in MA Tuesday. RCP is reporting that of the 9% of Massachusetts voters who voted absentee (which ended yesterday) Brown is winning 58-42, or 16%. This is right in line with my computations this morning, which indicate Coakley could lose by as much as […]

What we are seeing in the way of public polls and rumors about internal polls for the Massachusetts special election is just stunning. The last two public polls to come out had Coakley behind by 4% and 15%. I seriously doubt the 15% lead for Brown, but the fact is it is completely plausible given […]

This is a politically naive move: President Barack Obama will campaign for Massachusetts Senate candidate Martha Coakley on Sunday, POLITICO has learned, a sign that Democrats believe the seat remains winnable enough that it’s worth risking the president’s prestige. Apparently our young president cannot help but try and prove he still has some magical political […]

Major Update: Jim Geraghty’s “number cruncher” confirms my analysis using an independent methodology and concludes: So the question remains what about the whole “special election dynamic” I believe it favors Brown, although, I think there will be some watering down of this advantage. What we are seeing is BROWN winning this race hands down. On […]

I would say today is going to be an interesting day in DC. Speaker Pelosi, Senate Leader Reid and President Obama are going to be faced with a whole new world today. This new world will arise as news of the pending loss of Ted Kennedy’s senate seat (see here and here for all the […]

Another Major Update: The writing is on the wall. Coakley’s internal polls show at least a 5 point loss, Dems pivot to damage control spin. “So right now, she is destined to lose.” It’s over. Major Update: Brown surges into lead in latest poll: The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, […]