Update 3: The folks over at Powerline rip Quinnipiac and their mind boggling fictional turnout model: discount the Quinnipiac results, however, because its sample consists of 35 percent Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. That’s a better split for the Dems than they enjoyed in 2008. There is little reason to believe that the Democrats will [...]
We are getting actual data now due to early voting, and it shows a GOP enthusiasm blow out when compared to either proportions of voter registration rolls or proportions of votes in previous elections. The first indication we have of an enormous wave is in PA, where Politico is reporting early voting is swinging heavily [...]
Yesterday I noted PA was starting to drift rightward with a lot of polls showing Obama’s once commanding lead cut in half. In fact Obama lost another point in the Morning Call daily poll, now down to a 7% lead, even though Morning Call has held massive Party ID edges for the democrats (they don’t [...]
It seems those rumors of Obama being in trouble in PA might very well be true: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9 Dates conducted: Oct. 27-28. Error margin: 4 points. Given the margin of error this is a statistical tie.
If Obama loses PA he is in deep trouble. The public polls show an Obama blow out, but behind the scenes rumors persist: Tonight we spoke with a friend from Hillary Clintonâ€™s campaign who is now working for McCain/Palin â€” and is specifically working with Democrats for McCain in Pennsylvania. We worked with her in [...]