It seems those rumors of Obama being in trouble in PA might very well be true: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9 Dates conducted: Oct. 27-28. Error margin: 4 points. Given the margin of error this is a statistical tie.

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! Here’s the key to this presidential election – turnout! Has Governor Palin ignited a quietly determined grass roots anti-DC wave? If you look at her crowds she gets on the stump the answer is ‘yes‘ – they rival Obama’s. If you look at the viewership […]

The hysterically looney CBS News/NY Times poll shows why math is not for everyone. As a political veteran said recently the public doesn’t have wild gyrations in mood – especially not in a week.  The tell tale bogus factor in this poll is where they put all their big shift, and it is the views […]

Ok, color me totally confused here. Two left leaning (and I mean they tilt sideways) polls have come out showing a shrinking Obama lead. First is the CBS News Poll showing Obama losing half his lead 5 days, going from a +9 (49-40) to a plus +4 (47-43) – that is a statistical tie (MoE […]

While all the national and state polls out since the first presidential candidate debate have been going Obama’s way, one poll out today is bucking the trend. And I am really surprised at which poll it is – the ABC News/Washington Post poll from after the debate. As with all polls it is more important […]

Addendum: Turns out it was a Bill O’Reilly internet poll. Oh, well … – end update We caught a glimpse of a stunning poll on The O’Reilly Factor.  O’Reilly briefly showed a poll of who Americans blamed for the Financial Crisis.  The Democrat led Congress took top spot for the blame with something like 56% […]

The Washington Post/ABC News poll out showing Obama with a 9 point lead (52-43) illustrates my point about bad sampling techniques. There straight party sample breaks down 38% Dem, 28% Rep and 29% Ind. When Indies are asked which way they lean the sample goes 54% Dem, 38% Rep and 7% Ind. Is anyone surprised […]

Just to add fuel to the fire I wrote about this morning, there is a new poll out showing Obama is not gaining support among Clinton supporters – yet somehow he still leads in the national polls? Highly unlikely.

  Major Update – I was wrong, Obama holding at +4.  My timing could be off, but I doubt it.  Cheers, AJStrata Gallup showed a resurgent Obama over the past few days shooting out to a 6 point lead on Saturday, 50-44%. Yesterday, though, that lead dropped two points (or 30%). All during this period […]

OK this is the biggest poll shocker I have seen since the Palin selection for VP: Since picking Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain has obliterated what had been a 34-percentage-point deficit in a poll of likely women voters on the question of which candidate has a “better understanding of women and what is important” to them. […]