Major Update 2: A 2nd body-blow poll out from Gallup: Romney 50%, Obama 46%, and that means certain defeat if it holds. Major Update 1: A body-blow poll out from KOS: The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Obama 46 […]

Sometimes people get too focused on the gap between two candidates and forget to pay attention to the actual levels. For example, an incumbent who is polling around 45-46% is more than likely to lose the election since undecided voters late in the race tend to go to the challenger. This is especially true for […]

Update: Andrew Sullivan’s expression of shock tells me the current poll reversal has to be more than just a good/poor debate performance: Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And we are told that when Obama […]

Update: Ed Morrissey has some similar observations over at Hot Air. Ed catches something important that I missed: That’s even more true when one takes into consideration the sample breakdown in this poll.  It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8.  That’s more Democratic than 2008?s D+7, which took place in a cycle with […]

Finally, we have real data showing a shift to Romney. Both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen show a clear trend in the data (comparing polls from the same pollsters over time – apples to apples). Prior claims of a shift, as I noted previously, were not correct – just lucky. So it looks like Newt is losing […]

It is one thing to see the conditions for massive and historic election wave falling into place and showing up in the generic polls. It is another experience all together to see surprise races popping up like dandelions in the spring. The polling news from the last two days is just a wonder to see. […]

The first polls of the election season are coming in and the numbers are so bad it might be a good idea to put the left on suicide watch. No one living has ever seen the types of numbers we are seeing in the polls for the midterms (though no one should be surprised by […]

Update: It seems the Washington Post is seeing the same change in the public mood that I outlined below, and came to the same basic conclusion: But when the shouting dies down, it becomes possible to hear something else, something Democrats know is an even greater threat to them this fall. With polls consistently showing […]

Each district and state has a unique demographic makeup. That is why Massachusetts has been  one of the bluest (Dem) states in federal office elections, Texas has been one of the reddest (GOP) and Virginia (my home state) has been trending from red-purple to blue-purple. At least until 2009 when everything changed, and changed big. […]

Thanks to Obama’s liberal tunnel vision, supported by the liberal madness of Congressional leaders in the House and Senate, it seems being a “D” in 2010 is going to be the mark of political Defeat in 2010. Polls are starting to come out showing just how big the backlash is brewing outside the beltway.  And […]