Jim Geraghty’s mentor Obi-wan Kenobi agrees with my assessment that either there is a historically high Democrat advantage this year, or historic voting patterns will dominate and McCain-Palin could win: So here is the McCain supporter’s homework assignment. First, polls like Gallup, Washington Post/ABC, and some of the others with voting models that give enormous advantages […]

Will historians look back on this election on ponder exactly what was it that pushed a centrist like McCain into the White House over liberal Obama? If so they may find this little ditty emblematic of where Obama stumbled (H/T Powerline). And while listening to this note that McCain’s internal polls indicate he will win […]

Tonight we come to the 2nd to the last of the nightly reports where I continue to track the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters. Due to The Who concert tomorrow night I might no be able to produce a complete report early because I am sure the ABC/WaPo poll will […]

Another 2 point lead for Obama in a national poll which translates into the race being all tied up, and by the most accurate polling firm from 2004: The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the […]

Is McCain heading towards a landslide? Is Obama going to lose New Jersey and California? Well if you believe this audio then this is what internal GOP polls are saying. A blogger pulled out the salient numbers: New Jersey: McCain leads 48 to 43, with 7% undecided. Michigan: McCain leads 44 to 42, with 10% […]

A lot of people claim there is no last minute surge for McCain – yet we see Obama slipping in PA, VA and now Ohio – with a poll showing McCain in the lead by 2%. Those who claim not to see a surge away from Obama in these final days must be looking the […]

Another leading polling expert, this time for the Washington Post, comes clean about the uncertainties in the voter turnout models which have produced Obama leads of +2 (a tie) to +15 in the same week from different pollsters. A must read for Americans so they understand why polls usually get the race wrong (only 1 […]

Yesterday I noted PA was starting to drift rightward with a lot of polls showing Obama’s once commanding lead cut in half. In fact Obama lost another point in the Morning Call daily poll, now down to a 7% lead, even though Morning Call has held massive Party ID edges for the democrats (they don’t […]

Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models. The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like […]

The polls in PA running up to the final day are nothing short of stunning. The most leftward poll out there – the Morning Call which doesn’t do any party ID weighting in its samples – has seen Obama’s leads shaved severely from somewhere around 15% to 8% (no one is keeping a history of […]