Well, since I noticed there are two families of polls out there, and only one family will be proven right next Wednesday, I have decided to take the RCP average for the national polls and split it into the “traditional” poll of polls and the “extended” poll of polls. My original posts on what the […]

I am just not sure about the news that PA is in play, but if it is then Obama surely cannot win, even if he takes VA. But here are some stories confirming both GOP and Dem internal polls showing PA is in play. Story one: Pennsylvania The one blue state McCain hopes to grab […]

Major Update: DJ Drummond (another poll skeptic like me) has discovered another indication that the poll weighting of party for party ID are nonsensical and Obama may be in some serious trouble. Before I get to DJ’s analysis I want to address comments about early voting typically being led by Republicans. While true, early voting […]

Reader Frogg passed along this really interesting commentary from a professional pollster who is (a) a die hard Obama supporter and (b) laughing at the public polls: I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans […]

Jay Cost posted a good tutorial on the mathematics of polls, but left one case out where statistical models start to show two different possible outcomes. These are called bimodal results, where there is no consensus on a single result, but actually two highly probably results are possible. A graph of a bimodal statistical model […]

Something big is happening in Northern Virginia. I have been out of the country for a week and I came back home to the place I was born, raised and where I raised my family to find I did not recognize it. The area has become obsessed with the presidential election! There are signs everywhere […]

Clearly this year the pollsters don’t have a consensus. Some show a growing lead for Obama, others his lead shrinking to a tie. I still think by the time election day rolls by there will be a clear trend one way or the other. But for those looking for optimistic news there are polls out […]

Something may be happening in Pennsylvania which could determine the outcome of our pending election: Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton—return to campaign in Pennsylvania, Rendell told CNN’s Gloria Borger. … […]

Update: Very bad news on the poll front with Gallup.  The ‘traditional’ model shows a +7% lead for Obama which means Obama is either still getting his debate bounce or the nation is accepting his ascendency. This should not dampen the opposition. We don’t know where this race will come out. Get out to vote […]

Bob Beckel, Democrat ‘strategist’ and media blow hard, sees a threat to The Messiah: After Iowa, polls showed Obama in the lead in New Hampshire. And when Obama won New Hampshire, we were told, the primary would be over. Except the primary wasn’t over. It wasn’t over at all. Clinton won New Hampshire, and the […]