I am going to keep this short since I want to see a few more days play out, but many polls are now registering a bit of a post debate bounce for Obama – but they are small bounces and other polls are showing more tightening.  Rassmussen is down, Gallup is up, Hotline Down, Rueters […]

With two plus weeks to go before voting things might finally be turning John McCain’s way. I have predicted this race would go down to the decisions made by voters on election day, and that seems to be the case. However, I am not overly confident at this moment, just noting the data is turning […]

Some interesting poll news out this morning. First, a highly Dem slanted AP/Yahoo poll shows a tie race.  The AP/Yahoo poll shows the race to be 44-42% in favor of Obama, well within the margin of error of 2.5%. What has got to have the dems shaking in their boots is the sample break down, […]

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! 2nd Major Update: Did Obama commit a fatal unforced error when he let slip his liberal/socialist plans for redistributing wealth? This is still a center-right country, gang. Note this Gallup poll from June: When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic […]

I really want to applaud Gallup for providing two turnout model projections in their polls. It allows mathematically astute and experienced person to look inside the data and determine the state of the race. Today’s tracking poll is a great example of how the turnout models can really screw up the results: What the data […]

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! Major Update: The crowd in Richmond is now estimated to be 30,000!  Wow.  – end update Jay Cost over at RCP posted an analysis regarding polls and turnout models – something I have been on about for weeks now. It is an interesting discussion regarding […]

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! Major Update: Seems we have more proof of how bad the polls really are for Obama: As I mentioned yesterday, my brother is paid staff with the McCain campaign. Two nights ago there was a conference call, where they released internals on GA, VA, and […]

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! Reader Sally Vie noted this interesting post at Hillbuzz: The polls, in our opinon, are wrong, and the internal numbers we see coming out of NC, VA, PA, OH, IN and FL show McCain wins in all of those states (there is no mathematical possibility for […]

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! Obi-wan Kenobi is a mentor of Jim Geraghty who has years of political experience on the GOP side. In 2004 Obi-wan and I were of the exact same mind (which means more about my ability to act like a stopped watch every for years and […]

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! It seems Obama is floating back down to earth in the polls out today. For example, Obama has dropped from a +7% lead to a +1 statistical tie in the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll in the last three days. The following graph shows the trend […]