McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! I noted in a previous post that the polls seem to be weighted on Party ID and not Policy Preference, where conservatives and independents dwarf liberals by a whopping 72-23.. Party ID has dems ahead of Reps 43-36, which means if people vote party Obama […]

McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America! It seems McCain is not the only one who took a hit in the public eye on the financial bailout – Obama is also starting to lose ground. Two recent polls show the erosion. First is a Democracy Corps poll I noted in an earlier […]

With Barack Obama pulling ahead in the polls, it seems a lot of us on the right are concerned about the validity of the message we are seeing. I am still of the opinion something is wrong with the polls and have shown why record crowd levels at Palin events, record viewership of the Biden-Palin […]

There are some modest indications polls may be heading back toward McCain-Palin this week. Some of this can be seen in the state polls which bounced towards Obama during the debate on the Financial Bailout/Rescue package debate. For example, Colorado is apparently done with its bounce if you look at the current RCP polls: Poll […]

Does anyone think Governor Sarah Palin is not a force in this year’s presidential race? Here’s something for folks to consider when looking at the political landscape and the polls. The usually ignored VP debate drew a historic audience -  jumping into first place for any VP debate and into 2nd place for all Presidential […]

There are a rash of new state polls which make it look like a blow for O-bomba. The truth is a lot of polls were moving towards Obama last week, so there was movement in the electorate. But as I noticed two national polls showed a reverse trend, and some of these polls are clearly […]

Well, it seems the ABC News/Washington Post poll I noted earlier was not really an outlier but a predictor, given today’s Gallup Daily Tracking Poll showing the same 50% cut into Obama’s lead of 8 points last week. I would not be surprised to see this is just the beginning of another poll drop by […]

McCain-Palin took on Katie Couric and put in her place. What is interesting is McCain was demonstrating to Palin how hard you can push back, which is probably the only bit of advice she really needed. I think the liberal media has set expectations so low Palin will shine through. Remember, she represents a lot […]

Jay Cost at RCP points out a few slivers of hope in the poll numbers: First, the number of undecided voters has increased in the last three weeks, from a low of 6.3% of the electorate on 9/8 to 8.8% last night. Second, the polls themselves have been very volatile this month. The Gallup tracking […]

Voter models are the essence of political polls. You take a sample of a few hundred or a few thousand people and predict how that sample can reflect 10s-100s of millions of people. If you are off by even a small fraction in your assumptions the bottom line could be off by 5, 10 or […]