Could all of the corruption and unconstitutional games have finally been too much for a large segment of the Democrat caucus?

Update: Did we get that one ‘no’ vote that breaks the damn and brings down Obamacare? H/T Hot Air

The way out of this mess is to lance this boil and kill this bill. The lancing starts with a commitment to vote ‘yes’ so this bill gets to a vote this weekend, so the madness can end this weekend.

The way to kill the bill is for 10-20 of these ‘yes’ votes to turn into ‘no’ votes on Sunday. This will end the debate and allow this country to become whole again.

If there were 10-20 heroes in the centrist democrat group, willing to sacrifice much less than any single person serving in our military every day of the week, then we get end this and move on.

Is this wishful thinking? Is this the way to avoid years of constitutional upheaval and angst?

You betcha!

Which simply brings me back to the week America dies. The liberals in DC are stark raving mad. Apparently the democrats have passed the Demon Rule (Deeming rule) so that there will be no legal vote on Obamacare. And the President went on Fox News to claim he sees no reason to submit to the rule of law in enacting his ego-stroking monolith to liberal arrogance. As the latest Gallup Polls show this step down the slippery slope is too much for America, who is learning a harsh lesson about propaganda, false promises and looking for easy answers:

Obama has succeeded in this mad quest to finally break the hope of the people who once supported him. Now more people oppose him than support him, and this is just the beginning of the slide into historical oblivion. Congress has also reached historic lows:

What has become apparent is the nation is about ready to rise up against the liberals in DC. States are beginning to flex their muscle, with the support of the voters. The constitutional crisis is upon us – driven the by insane brinkmanship of liberals willing to go to any level to prove they are not the rejects they are. (Update: Pew Poll and Fox Poll showing the rising tide of rejection).

I predict the bill will pass, unless some house members go to the US Supreme Court to get an immediate determination that the Slaughter-House rule is unconstitutional in this instance. When the bill passes, the states and the private sector will begin the revolt. A revolt that will only begin in November.

Liberals are daring Americans to stop them, and America is ready to take that challenge. The question is will the liberals, facing sure political annihilation, take this to the next level? Will they resist the will of the people which will be expressed through the courts, state legislators and the voting booth?

The republic is now in real danger. The liberals are grabbing illegal power and not even pretending well to hide their arrogance. The states and people of the republic will resist. Will the liberals in DC go to marshall law in order to retain their Holy Grail? Is controlling health care more important than this nation? It does not have to come to that – but the liberals have to admit defeat in order to avoid the cataclysm that is about to wrench this nation apart.

I hope we do not reach that point. When the people and the states act they will begin to dismantle the federal government and shrink it back to what the founders envisioned. Right now the left is demanding they control everyone else, and everyone else is saying” hell no!” Either the liberals and Democrats step back from the brink this week, or we head into one of the most volatile periods this nation has experienced in decades.

Addendum: And for those too naive to think process doesn’t matter, let me remind them of a simple example. Everyone wishes to become wealthy, but doing so by stealing or killing is not legal. There are boundaries where people, in their self centered zeal, go too far. And they always think they have ‘right’ on their side.

Update: IRS as the modern SS? H/T Reader SBD.

Update: And guess what, you can’t keep your current insurance and the premiums will go up to replace it.

Update: President Obama is now in politically poisonous waters with his refusal to listen to the people. The Rasmussen poll comparing strong approval vs strong disapproval is inching back to a critical tipping point – where twice as many people strongly disapprove than approve:

It is also getting to the point where 50% of the nation STRONGLY disapproves. Congress is in even worse shape. If/when this debacle passes, these numbers will jump into the red zone, and they will not come back down for 2 more years – at least. When 50% of this company is up in arms in opposition, the political tsunami has reached a level not seen since the civil war.

But the senate looked like a hill too high – until today. If you look at the RCP 2010 election map for the Senate you find DE is now a lost Democrat seat, with AR, IN and NV highly likely lost seats. That brings us to 4 out of the 9 needed to tip the Senate into GOP hands. If we look at tossups it is easy to assume the following would tip GOP in wave election against the Dems: PA & CO.  I would add IL into that pile.

And soon we will be adding CA into that pile as well because Boxer is now polling between 43-46% in CA, which means she is very likely to lose to any of the GOP candidates which only trail her by 3-6% (close to the MoE). If Rossi in WA challenges Dem incumbent Murray we have the makings for an extraordinary election year where the Dems went from a filibuster proof majority to losing control of the Senate in 2 short, painful years.

All I see are people who cannot barely fathom a fraction of the complexities of this modern world – from communications to science to medicine – making life destroying decisions with the skill of an idiot run amok.

We face the end of our democracy this week, as the lazy and lying politicians and their enablers inside the Political Industrial Complex (PIC: consultants, lobbyists, staffers, well connect special interests, compliant news media) refuse to let the people chose their path: either government rationed health care verses pay-as-you-can free market health care. I prefer the latter – it is an incentive to stay in school, focus your energies, avoid the laziness of drugs, computer games, self indulgence. In return for hard work not only will you succeed and have a nice house, nice car and raise a family in decent surroundings – you will also earn world class health care. It makes it my responsibility to me and my family – one I take on humbly and honorably. I do not trust it to anyone else.

On the other side is the PIC, which prefers to play god and decide who is worthy of OUR money. I don’t have the arrogance to presume so much over others. It seems the more naive you are the more insight you have into how to run other people’s lives.

What is worse is now the endless lies. To sell this takeover requires a constant flow of DC BS.

Take for example the woman with cancer President Obama and the liberals in DC shamelessly used as a prop this week. Supposedly she is a victim of our health care system. But when you peak behind the propaganda and lies you find out she has NOT been dumped from her coverage and she is NOT dying without care and support.

Natoma Canfield, the cancer-stricken woman who has become a centerpiece of President Obama’s push for health care reform, will not lose her home over her medical bills and will probably qualify for financial aid, a top official at the Cleveland medical center treating her told FoxNews.com.

…

Canfield said in her letter that while she was diagnosed with a treatable form of cancer 16 years ago, she had been cancer-free for 11 years. But she said her premiums increased by over 25 percent last year, and that with a maximum deductible of $2,500 she had to pay about $10,000 for care in 2009 — while her insurance company paid just over $900.

After learning recently that her premiums were about to increase by over 40 percent in 2010, Canfield dropped her plan, she said in the letter.

She is dying from cancer, yes. As many have before her and many will after her. Cancer is a painful way to go, but we do not yet possess the medical skills to reverse it. She is dying, nothing in DC will help her or those like her.

The lies about this story surround her medical costs – they are what they are. They have to be paid by someone. They ARE being paid by someone.

It does not matter whether she is covered from insurance, charity or Medicare. What is true is she is being required, now, to carry a lot of the burden. I feel for her, but under any solution that still must be true. She sees the bills, she feels the financial burden. All Obamacare does his hide this cost from HER – not us! Is this all this is about – hiding the cost of life sustaining care?

The woman was not dumped from her insurance, she could not afford to pay and withdrew.  She lost her job 12 years ago and has somehow made do since then. Her cancer was diagnosed 16 years ago. Time has caught up with her and the cancer is taking hold. Her medical costs are going up. Hard facts of life.

Nothing in Obamacare can help her. Nothing. In fact, under rationed government health care she would run the risk of being rejected because she will have used up her lifetime allotment of coverage. She also would not be in a premier medical center, as she is now. And there will be no profits feeding into medical research to find a cure. Under Obamacare the current situation would look insanely marvelous.

This need to fake stories and make up lies to sell this crazy liberal scheme and confiscate our personal health care is why democracy is dying in America. Congress is despised, with less than 20% support and 75% of America in opposition. People want them fired – all of them. And yet they mindlessly continue to push for the destruction of our health care.

And to get there, they plan to destroy our constitution. Obama, Pelosi and Reid are big on talking about an up or down vote on health care. Real big.  All they moan about is getting a vote for their proposals. Something they were free to do (and lose on) for over a year now. But that is all really a lie my friends. There will be no vote:

After laying the groundwork for a decisive vote this week on the Senate’s health-care bill, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested Monday that she might attempt to pass the measure without having members vote on it.

Instead, Pelosi (D-Calif.) would rely on a procedural sleight of hand: The House would vote on a more popular package of fixes to the Senate bill; under the House rule for that vote, passage would signify that lawmakers “deem” the health-care bill to be passed.

To boil down on past all the misinformation, the Democrats will let their members vote on what they wish was in the bill, but illegally bypass reconciliation by saying that means they passed the Senate bill with all the stuff they don’t like.

It is all a lie, because the Senate cannot go to reconciliation until the President SIGNS the senate bill. That mess has to become law first, then they may get around to fixing it. They will not vote, they will put on a show and then switch the bills out from under are dumb noses. How slick these people are!

Most of us are resigned to the reality DC is completely out of control and needs to be dismantled. Government now exists to please itself, not work for the people. It is still our country, and we will take it back this November. But right now all we can do is watch the fools tear it apart in their mad quest.

So bye, bye now America dies
Let the loonies run DC, now they only spit out lies
Them crooks & liars were drinking whiskey & rye, singing
This will be the day our democracy dies
This will be the day that it dies

(sung to American Pie)

Update: Meant to add this article on a new poll showing just how much opposition there is to Obamacare – in centrist swing districts!

Voters in key congressional districts are clear in their opposition to what they have seen, read and heard on health-care reform. That’s one of the findings of a survey that will be released today by the Polling Company on behalf of Independent Women’s Voice. The survey consisted of 1,200 registered voters in 35 districts represented by members who could determine the outcome of the health-care debate. Twenty of those members voted for the House bill in November but now may be reconsidering. Fifteen voted against the bill but are under tremendous pressure to change their vote.

The survey shows astonishing intensity and sharp opposition to reform, far more than national polls reflect. For 82% of those surveyed, the heath-care bill is either the top or one of the top three issues for deciding whom to support for Congress next November. (That number goes to 88% among independent women.) Sixty percent want Congress to start from scratch on a bipartisan health-care reform proposal or stop working on it this year. Majorities say the legislation will make them and their loved ones (53%), the economy (54%) and the U.S. health-care system (55%) worse off—quite the trifecta.

Seven in 10 would vote against a House member who votes for the Senate health-care bill with its special interest provisions. That includes 45% of self-identified Democrats, 72% of independents and 88% of Republicans.

As I said, we are resigned to this mess playing out and the people cleaning out DC in November.

Update: Today’s Health Care must read. Heck, it is the ‘must read’ of the season.

Shortly before midnight on Sunday, Democrats released a 2,309 page health care bill that will start the process of reconciliation — but don’t let that fool you, it’s not the actual reconciliation bill with all the changes you’ve been reading about. Instead, as Rep. Paul Ryan, the ranking Republican member on the Budget Committee, explained to me last week, this is just the “shell” bill — the vehicle that Democrats need to get moving on health care. Once the bill gets approved (likely Monday), Democrats will send this phantom bill over to the Rules Committee, where it will be stripped, and then they’ll insert in all of the actual changes that they’ve negotiated.

See, they will pretend they have shown the country and congress what will be voted on and passed into law, but it really is a prop – a false impression. Somehow I don’t get the feeling a real democracy should be run by pretending to vote on one set of laws and then having a small group commit a coupe d’etat and slip in their own preferred version. That is not the ‘law of the land’ I grew up to admire in this country.

One Obama cabinet member I think is in serious trouble, though he seems to be flying under the radar of the Health Care debate at the moment, is Attorney General Eric Holder. The fact he held back key amicus briefs from his Senate review is very disturbing, and just another sign the Obama administration is anything but ‘transparent’:

During his confirmation more than a year ago, Attorney General Eric Holder failed to notify lawmakers he had contributed to a legal brief dealing with the use of federal courts in fighting terrorism, the Justice Department acknowledged on Wednesday.

…

Still, the “amicus brief,” filed with the Supreme Court in 2004, resonates years later as Holder finds himself defending the handling of some recent terrorism cases, particularly the interrogation of alleged “Christmas Day bomber” Umar F. Abdulmutallab.

The brief – filed by Holder, then a private attorney, former Attorney General Janet Reno and two other Clinton-era officials – argued that the President lacks authority to hold Jose Padilla, a U.S citizen declared an “enemy combatant,” indefinitely without charge.

In making their case, Holder and the others argued that using federal courts to fight terrorism, which includes providing Miranda rights to terror suspects, would not “impair” the government’s ability to obtain intelligence, which they called “the primary tool for preventing terrorist attacks.”

Clearly this is subterfuge, an effort to hide Holder’s risky and dangerous views from public scrutiny. This was a brief which exposes Holder’s (and Obama’s and John Brennan’s) views that they could dial back our reaction to terrorist threats used under the Bush admininstration. It explains completely why the terrorist investigations into Major Hasan were suspiciously and abruptly shut down before the true nature of the man was discovered. After all, he was an American citizen talking about Jihad and killing soldiers with another American citizen now in Yemen and tied to al Qaeda and 9-11.

In the twisted and limited views of liberals that is called free speech. I guess bombing civilians is also an admirable expression of political views.

The brief also explains the totally bizarre and reckless act of suspending interrogations of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab and providing him the right to remain silent and a lawyer – even though he is not an American citizen! An act that could have allowed other al Qaeda killers to sneak by our defenses. It was this same extension of American rights to foreign threats inside our borders that allowed the 9-11 high jackers to ‘disappear’ from intelligence monitoring and kill 3,000 people.

I have written extensively about Hasan and Abdulmutallab, including the on-the-record comments of Eric Holder and John Brennan on how they planned to dial back our reactions to threats. Apparently they defined a new class of threat, the lone wolf, who they could apply new, less reactionary rules to. This is how, in my opinion,  Abdulmutallab’s actions and connections to known terrorist sympathizers slipped by our formally hair trigger defenses. After all, he too communicated with that American traitor in Yemen.

And it is now coming out this was not just one amicus brief, but a whole suite of them:

As a nominee, Holder had “a duty of candor to provide all information requested by the Senate Judiciary Committee in connection with his nomination,” said Stephen Boyd, communications director for Sen. Jeff Sessions, the ranking Republican on the committee. “It is simply unacceptable that briefs in such significant cases were not provided to the Committee so that they could be discussed during his confirmation hearings.”

“We will review the documents carefully,” said Boyd, “and see how they shed light on the Attorney General’s terrorism policies, including his treatment of the Christmas Day Bomber and his decision to prosecute KSM in domestic criminal court in New York City. This will be a significant issue at his hearing in 10 days.”

Holder has a big problem – he was wrong. He can play games all day long, but his premise that we can fight a suicidal enemy through the courts instead of on the battlefield is mind numbingly stupid. And al Qaeda knows it has an opening. It is crafting its attacks very carefully and using new recruits in order to trigger the Obama civil rights blinders. These blinders have been shown many times now to provide sufficient cover to allow the attacker to get in place for an attack, and also provide time for others to go to ground if the attacker is caught.

Obama and Holder have been lucky, but they are also now distracted and back on their heels. The intelligence folks are not sure how far to go in pursuing leads, especially if the lead is an American. I look at the recent arrests of Jihad cheer leaders and I see a new pattern. Either they finally started taking the threat seriously (doubtful) or they are running around in a panic pulling in even the most marginal characters.

Time will tell, but the liberals were wrong. You cannot use the courts and miranda rights to protect Americans from al Qaeda suicide attackers. That is how 9-11 was allowed to happen. It is not a question of if the Obama-Holder-Brennan axis of stupidity will cause deaths (it already has in the case of Hasan), it is only a matter of when al Qaeda will be lucky enough to exploit our now relaxed defenses.

There is no doubt this is a sea change year in America. We have seen decades of hyper-partisan failures, where one side or the other is allowed a period to lead and they head as far left or right as they can, trying to reshape America in their own fantasy world of perfection. Ignoring the fact that America’s perfection is in its embrace of peaceful diversity and the power of the individual.

Along the way these hyper partisans diss and moan about the great center of America – the diverse heart and soul of America. They rant about those who don’t want a black or white world, who don’t think we have all the answers, who don’t fall for simpleton solutions to complex problems. Centrists have endured a lot of grief for stopping the fringes from going too far, and for allowing the other side a chance at moderate, center-out leadership when things get out of hand. The message has been clearly repeated for many cycles now. Get back to the center, stop trying to mandate and control everything.

But this merry-go-round of the fringes is about to end. The reality is Americans don’t want to be taken care of, told how to live, told how to act, told how to think. They want to explore their individual pursuit of life, liberty and happiness. They want to explore their religion, they want to explore their personal relationships (preferably privately, away from our children) and they want to explore their creativity and see if they can succeed in the free market (whether it is a widget, a piece of art or a some helpful service). We want to explore our individuality, our personal diversity. We want to break from the norm or the conventional wisdom or the ‘way it has been’. We don’t want DC hyper partisans picking winners or losers, best or worst, good or bad.

We do want the individual to have the right to self determination, and we do want them to live with the consequences of their decisions. We can pool temporary safety nets for hard times. But I think we are all fed up with covering for people who had opportunities and squandered them. Those who worked hard and achieved something are not going to be the ones footing the bills for other people’s mistakes and corruption.

What we are finally realizing is our big centralized, federal government is no longer a protection to our individual exploration of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. It is a threat to all we hold dear. Over the years BigGov, the Orwellian beast we were warned about in the book Nineteen Eighty Four, has tried to tamp out our differences and make us march to the tune of the current minority in power. The truth is politicians, the news media, their consultants and talking heads of the Political Industrial Complex are a tiny minority of what makes up America. They are NOT the heart soul and drive of America. And they have failed to solve almost all domestic problems (the one exception in my mind is engaging the private sector to provide prescription drug coverage to Medicare).

What we would hopefully see this year as centrists come forward to offer their shot at leadership are plans to dismantle the oppressive BigGov and push power (and creativity to solve problems) back to the states and the people. We do need to pool some money for our national defense, for some national endeavors (like exploring space until it becomes economically sustainable) and to fulfill old commitments like Social Security and Medicare. However, for some of these entitlements the commitment will be short lived and for those who cannot move to the new programs that will replace these outdated behemoths.

I don’t need to have the answers because it will take a generation to undo this mess. All I need to know is the path and the promise to do no harm, force no one to make a choice they do not want to make. I live in a business were we can upgrade to the ‘new’ while supporting those on the ‘old’ until they are ready to move on. We can do this for public policy as well.

If the party plank is to pair back the intrusiveness of government, and the horrendous waste of our money that goes with it, I am all for it. And I think the nation is too.

We need to dismantle much of government. We need to cut taxes and spending so the economy can grow and we can fix our own problems. We need to allow the states to innovate on public policies and services. We can even pool some money to help financially strapped districts or regions to keep up with the innovations, but these pools will be small and only for the very neediest cases.

Whatever we do, we need to do it without the heavy hand of the federal bureaucracy. In this information age we can report data and collect results using small, independent groups (more than two) who review the data and report conclusions and make recommendations. We don’t need bureaucracies and mountains of paper. We need independent eyes who cannot be influenced by money.

States can innovate and experiment. The private sector can innovate, experiment and reap the rewards for themselves, their workers and their communities. Pockets of innovation will replace pockets of economic stress. The central reporting function will just communicate to other regions what is working and how it was implemented, or what was not working and why.

The federal government has become the antithesis of America. We don’t need to take back BigGov, we need to take it apart and get back to the Constitution and limited government.

I feel in my bones this is the new path we will embark on, the phoenix that is going to rise from the liberal failures on job stimulus, Obamacare and global warming. They are shining examples of how BigGov has reached the end of its utility.

We need to remove the political know-it-alls who always come up clueless and get back to living our own lives. We need to stop falling for false promises. We need to do this ourselves, and we need to be freed of BigGov to do it.

Update: I do want to comment on the social conservative movement, which I know is being pushed a bit to the side. As long as we remain within the bounds of respecting each other, I think the religious right has an argument that they are singled out and oppressed too much. There should be public prayer, mangers at Christmas and sharing of their beliefs in school (as all should be shared and expressed). Fighting the oppression of the christian right by the intolerant atheists using government to censor them is a cause I champion, even though I am not religious.

In addition, I am pro-life and yet respect the hard choices some have to make when facing medical issues. I am more worried about stem cell industries growing and slaughtering tens of thousands human beings (who happen to be in the embryonic stage of life) than I am about the mother making a choice on one life. We can help women make better choices, pro life choices. We must stop the raising and slaughtering of humans for spare parts for the rich.

It is when the social conservatives attack other people’s life styles, or they want to replace science with divine mythology in school, that they cross the line. To many of us a liberal touting Global Warming is no better than someone touting Intelligent Design. Neither is science.

I would remind our social conservative friends that they have allies when it comes to fighting the oppression they face. We can respect and recall our judeo-christian roots and the meaning of Christmas and share in their view points. That is the boundary of common ground which unites.

Today we have the latest scheme to pass their government take over and destruction of our private health care – just dictate it from the House without any actual vote.

The Slaughter Solution is a plan by Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-NY), the Democratic chair of the powerful House Rules Committee and a key ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), to get the health care legislation through the House without an actual vote on the Senate-passed health care bill.  You see, Democratic leaders currently lack the votes needed to pass the Senate health care bill through the House.  Under Slaughter’s scheme, Democratic leaders will overcome this problem by simply “deeming” the Senate bill passed in the House – without an actual vote by members of the House.

An article in this morning’s edition of National Journal’s CongressDaily breaks the story, starting with the headline: “SLAUGHTER PREPS RULE TO AVOID DIRECT VOTE ON SENATE BILL.”  Excerpts:

House Rules Chairwoman Louise Slaughter is prepping to help usher the healthcare overhaul through the House and potentially avoid a direct vote on the Senate overhaul bill, the chairwoman said Tuesday.

Slaughter is weighing preparing a rule that would consider the Senate bill passed once the House approves a corrections bill that would make changes to the Senate version.

The good news is we now know Obamacare is dead on arrival because it will never pass constitutional muster. Even if the Dems shop some federal courts, the people in enough states will rise up in revolt. The liberals want to go all out – they are about to learn what ‘all out’ means. They have not realized Americas revulsion of government rationed health care is stronger than their doe-eyed groupie love for it.

But one thing is becoming clear to Americans, they will need to eject these corrupt, power-mad people as soon as possible. If the Democrats are crazy enough to jettison our constitution and our democracy (irony: Democrats corrupted to the point they kill their namesake) then Americans will have open to them a slew of legal and political avenues. I cannot fathom what 100’s of millions of creative and angry minds will devise in response to liberal madness – but by going to the “Slaughter” rule democrats have opened the flood gates.

America is in for a rough ride this year, but it will be a cleansing ride. I just hope we keep it civil and legal. More over at Powerline. Also, Jim Geraghty has some amazing polling data on how abysmal Obamacare in the minds of independents and swing voters.

Update: Here is more on the ‘rule’ congress has used to avoid being responsible and on the record for their votes in the past – and which is being used to totally bypass the Constitution in this Congress. Count me in the revolution if this goes down this ugly.

First we have the polls, which like a fine oiled machine keep ratcheting downward every time Onama and the Congressional libs try to push the government taker of our private health insurance (which most of us like just fine, thank you, minus cost). Obama now has twice as many people who strongly DISAPPROVE of him than strongly approve of him. They dislike him, they really, really dislike him. This is not partisan – look at the independents who now strongly disapprove by 3 to 1!

Among those not affiliated with either major political party, 17% Strongly Approve and 45% Strongly Disapprove.

Yeah, that will play well in 2010 and 2012, and I doubt we have hit rock bottom yet. For months the message from America has been consistent and clear. The anger rising at the hyper-partisan power grab is reaching a boiling point. Can the liberals in DC screw up anymore?

Apparently they can. These geniuses in DC don’t even know the rules of Congress- the place they control!

The White House and Democratic Congressional leaders said Tuesday that they were bracing for a key procedural ruling that could complicate their effort to approve major health care legislation, by requiring President Obama to sign the bill into law before Congress could revise it through an expedited budget process.

No one checked to see if reconciliation could be used on legislation THAT WAS NOT LAW YET??? I mean, it makes sense you cannot reconcile something that is not law yet! All this talk for months about this nuclear option and no one checked to see if the trigger could be pulled all at once?

Like I said, clueless.

First off is this guest post over at Roger Pielke Jr’s website that analyzes how much of the latest IPCC report (AR4) is based on ‘peer-reviewed’ science vs grey and black references – along with a great definition for these classes of scientific confidence:

Overall only 62% of the references in the IPCC report are actually based on science, the rest are grey or black. But as we all know, not even the science references are all used accurately, or are even accurate themselves.

Next is this interesting post at Harmless Sky by TonyN, which looks at one of the insane tables produced by Working Group 1 of the IPCC. In it (reproduced below) TonyN notes that we find some bizarre, mathematically impossible conclusions drawn that simply emphasize the fact you can point to all the scientific papers you want, and still come up with garbage conclusions:

[A] Phenomenon aand direction of trend	[B] Likelihood that trend occurred in late 20th century (typically post 1960)	[C] Likelihood of a human contribution to observed trend b	[D] Likelihood of future trends based on projections for 21st century using SRES scenarios
[1] Warmer and fewer cold daysand nights over most landareas	Very likely c [>90%]	Likely e >60%	Virtually certaine >99%
[2] Warmer and more frequenthot days and nights overmost land areas	Very likely d >90%	Likely (nights) e >60%	Virtually certaine >99%
[3] Warm spells / heat waves.Frequency increases overmost land areas	Likely >60%	More likely than not f >50%	Very likely >90%
[4] Heavy precipitation events.Frequency (or proportion oftotal rainfall from heavy falls)increases over most areas	Likely >60%	More likely than not f >50%	Very likely >90%
[5] Area affected by droughtsincreases	Likely in many regions since 1970s >60%	More likely than not >50%	Likely >60%
[6] Intense tropical cycloneactivity increases	Likely in some regions since 1970 >60%	More likely than not f >50%	Likely >60%
[7] Increased incidence ofextreme high sea level(excludes tsunamis) g	Likely >60%	More likely than not f, h >50%	Likely I >60%

Just focus in on the line highlighted in red text. What we have is three columns of confidence levels for three hypothesis (none of which are really proven): (a) a measured trend in the climate data, (b) the trend has a human component (of any size, it could be insignificant or dominant, IPCC never explains here), and (c) a guesstimate the human influence will drive a future trend – or at least that is the implication. The title of the column actually is much more general and useless, it simply provides a confidence Earth will experience this same trend again.

If the world is going through a natural cycle, of course we will see these things again!

Anyway, so we look at “[3] Warm spells / heat waves. Frequency increases overmost land areas“. For the globe to be warming, one would think the frequency of warm spells and heat waves would naturally increase. But look at the confidence levels (if these numbers are even the mathematical variety of the term).

It is only 60% likely that there has been an increase in warm spells or heat waves in the 20th century! Only 60%? I thought this was the apocalyptic end result of AGW? Even more so, there is only a 50% confidence this barely perceptible trend is human driven (remember a 50% confidence means it could be or as easily could not be = no evidence either way). If you were combining uncertainties (the 1’s compliment of confidence) we would say there is 40% uncertainty in warming trends being detected and 50% uncertainty (basically zero) it is human driven. This would lead any real scientist (or HS math ace) to conclude there is enormous uncertainty that human induced warm spells will be seen in the future.

But not those crazy folks at the IPCC – they claim there is a 90% certainty of future human induced warm spells! Or is that just warm spells, which would be the only sane (but useless) conclusion?

As I said, you can have all the scientific references in the world and still produce garbage.

Next is this real scientific paper that attempts to use shellfish shells to discern historic climate. It looks like it is going to replace all other proxies because it can actually measure down to the month or less. Interestingly it shows a Roman Warm Period, a Medieval Warm Period, and A Little Ice Age. What does it show for today? Strangely the entire thing stops in the 1800’s. H/T Bishop Hill.

Speaking of real scientific papers, SPPI has this interesting paper out discussing the possible mechanisms behind the divergence of Satellite & Ground temp data. I find its exploration of UHI effects and detail on how wind speed is a huge factor in cooling at night very enlightening. If you want to truly glimpse the complexity of instantaneous and long term climactic forces and drivers, this paper is a bit of an eye opener.

This article up at WUWT demonstrates how unsettled the ’science’ really is. You have one major national climate organization, the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC), refuting the speculative math used by NASA GISS to smear a few warm thermometers over the entire continent of Antarctica and claim there is warming. What is ’settled’ is no one spent any time fact checking GISS, CRU and IPCC until recently.

And finally I want to end with a picture of the pending corruption that is the natural result of all this green madness (and I mean the money type of ‘green’). This starts in the UK and will make its way around the world Australia. First the UK and the fleecing of its citizens for green greed:

Well-off homeowners will be expected to borrow more than £7bn over the next decade to meet ambitious government energy saving targets announced today.

Local authorities will be encouraged to borrow the money needed to make buildings greener and meet local carbon emission reduction targets, for example by entering into public-private partnerships.

Energy suppliers will be required to meet about 60% of the estimated £18.6bn cost of insulating most of the UK’s homes, for which the poorest households will not have to pay. Suppliers will pass these costs on to their customers, but energy secretary Ed Miliband insisted the targets would not lead to additional utility bill rises.

Energy Secretary Miliband must be using that new math, because there is no way to pass on new costs and not see increased rates. Can you see our Federal government mandating we all pay exorbitant prices to insulate our homes? There is more 3rd grade math to come!

Under legislation proposed today, homeowners would be able to take out loans for thousands of pounds to install loft or wall insulation or solar panels. These loans would be fixed against the home, so that if the borrower moved out, they would not have to continue to pay.

The new owner would inherit the annual charge to pay for the green measures, but would also continue to benefit from the resulting lower energy bills.

Do these people understand it can take a decade or more to recoup some of these investments? And if your house is relatively new it will only marginally change your energy use since you can only do so much in upgrading to a modern, energy efficient home. And if it is older, the cost to get it up to par with modern homes is enormous, thus the long time to recoup the investment. This is just silly madness. And when this doesn’t work they will go to energy rationing and the thermostat police will show up.

This is all ripe for exploitation, as we find in Australia from these posts here and here.

Government needs to stop mandating what products we buy. From health insurance, to home upgrades, to the food we want to eat the nanny state needs to be fired. There is no global melt down, stop picking our pockets and lining yours.

Update: Oops! Almost forgot another set of posts I wanted to highlight. This first post is from The Virtuous Republic and ponders some of the effects of the great thermometer die off in the 1980’s and 1990’s. It is my contention you cannot use one thermometer to represent more than 50 km of any region with any accuracy. The Machiavellian has discovered how GISS has trimmed their sensors to a senseless level. Here is another post from the site on the same topic.

Bottom line, anyone who thinks a thermometer in Florida can give you the temperature in VA is pretty much a fool.

I added the difference numbers to illustrate why 50% is still the safe majority number in two way races. 15 of the Senators are green in this category because, even if they are below 50%, the gap between their approve/disapprove numbers is large enough to get them over the top in a two way race. I am not seeing someone with a 45% approval being at risk when their disapproval rating is 10% lower.

It is when the approve/disapprove get within 5% points of each other things look to be bad, and most of the Senators fall into this category. If disapproval turns into energetic opposition at the voting booth, then there is a real risk the voters will jettison the incumbent.

There are three senators with ** marks, showing a slim margin but also huge numbers of people who are  not picking either approve or disapprove. This means these candidates could easily win depending on the mood of the undecideds. What this leaves is 19 senators in clear and obvious deep trouble.

In any event, the erosion in support is definitely bipartisan, though it is clear the majority party is taking a majority of the anger from the American people. And this is only March.

I am still wondering when this crowd of arrogant incompetents will get the message and REPRESENT the wishes of America.  They can begin by stopping Obamacare once and for all and starting over, as Americans across this land have been demanding.

Update: Jay Cost nails this years historic point in time.

The Virginia Legislature this week is poised to become the first state to pass legislation that says citizens cannot be required to have medical insurance.

Dozens of other states are considering similar measures, possibly setting the stage for one of the greatest tests of federal power over the states since the civil rights era.

If states are allowed to opt out of the mandate, the foundation of Obama’s effort would be undermined, turning the nascent revolt here into one with national implications.

You have to keep asking ‘what’s the point of this obsessive madness?” Obamacare is not going to be accepted. There are numerous legal ways to throw up roadblocks even if it is passed by Hyper-Partisan, ruthless measures. All of it can and will be delayed until there is enough change in DC to roll it all back – probably to deafening cheers from the American people.

The madness driving the aging and deluded liberals in DC is just pathetic. They keep pretending that if they just get the votes it will all be set in stone.  It won’t be, but the liberals will have erected the tomb stone for liberalism, that much is for sure. In fact, they may have already set that stone in place and dug the hole. They are simply waiting for the voters to fill it in – and then move on without any regrets.

There is no way to force change from DC. You can get people to agree to change, but you cannot wave your magic wand and tell people they must do what you say. The more you try the more people will stand up to take that silly wand out of your hands and smash it (probably over your thick head).

This Congress is done – it is the lamest of lame ducks. The Democrats are done, and Obama is done. Why continue to fight the majority of Americans? You can’t win. If Obama wants to, he could regain some support, but that would require him to bow down to us. I don’t think he has it in him (he only bows to foreigners).

The Swedes wrote into Parliament to clarify (see here at Climate Audit) that they have no issues with data being public at all. The blog Bishop Hill beat me to the punch, but here is the key point of contention between Jones and the Swedes. This is excerpt is from Jones in his request to Sweden:

We stress that the data we hold has arisen from multiple sources, and has been recovered over the last 30 years. Subsequent quality control and homogenisation of these data have been carried out. It is therefore highly likely that the version we hold and are requesting permission to distribute will differ from your own current holdings.

The Swedes quite rightly were against Jones making his processed data available under the guise it was raw Swedish data. There have been numerous posts by skeptics looking at raw data from that region of Europe noting how the raw data does not line up with CRU and IPCC graphs (see here for one example). What is stunning about this letter (original here) is how Jones clearly is trying to put the Swedish label on his data. As Bishop Hill notes there is no restriction on CRU publishing data it has massaged, it just cannot call it raw Swedish data:

t seems clear to me that Jones does not actually require permission from SMHI to release the adjusted data. This, by his own admission, is different to what SMHI holds and there can therefore be no issues of intellectual property.

…

Having being asked for permission to release, SMHI felt they were being asked to endorse Jones’ adjusted figures. Quite properly, they refused. It is clear that they had no objection to Jones releasing his adjusted data provided he made it clear that it was just that: adjusted.

How many other countries caught this apparent subterfuge? Is this the smoking gun that proves the AGW zealots did ‘adjust’ the data to make it appear there was significant warming in the last 50 years?

And if Sweden was one of a handful of countries to detect the con, how many are now cross checking CRU and about to blow this mess wide open?

Addendum: Let me be clear on what I think this could mean. As I noted on Bishop Hill this could be the beginning of a huge data manipulation scandal for IPCC and AGW theory. If CRU has sent out this form letter to all nations providing it data, and they missed the lawyerly CYA language about CRU putting that nation’s moniker on CRU adjusted data, the entire house of cards comes crashing down.

Right about now a lot of people are looking at what the Swedes caught onto and are checking for themselves. If Jones was dumb and arrogant enough to try and pull this con off (and all indications are he is), then a list of nations will be pulling the alarm bells next week on CRU, and therefore IPCC, NCDC, GISS, EPA, etc.

The only reason I can see for Jones to keep the national moniker on the CRU adjusted data is because those ‘adjustments’ are key to AGW surviving. Otherwise why run the risk? This could be the incident that blows the entire scientific fraud wide open. The next few weeks will tell if I am right.