Well, well, well. A very surprising night for the GOP primary race.

It’s 9:55 PM and with 30% of the locations reporting from Missouri Rick Santorum looks like he is going to win big. Fox News has Rick at 54% to Romney’s 26% and has now  called the beauty contest for Santourm. Santorum has nearly twice Romney’s votes, which is clear indication that the ‘anyone but Romney’ insurgent voters out their in Main Street.

In the Minnesota caucuses Santorum is leading with 44% to Paul’s 27%, with Romney a distant 3rd at 17%. That is with 11% reporting so it is still early. But if that ALSO holds that will be two big wins for Rick.

So where will Colorado go? We shall see, but if Romney fails 3 out of 3 he will be hurt badly. Santorum has been winning the debates of late, so maybe it is the last anti-Romney candidate standing!

I could get behind a Santorum candidacy.

Major Update (11:56 PM): Surprise ending.With 32% reporting in Colorado Santorum leads 43% to Romney’s 29%. We may not have enough votes in yet, but Santorum looks to be on  path to a trifecta win. What  a blow to Romney and the GOP establishment!

Major Update (10:33 PM): As predicted CNN just called Minnesota for Santorum. He has 46% to Paul’s 26% and Romney’s 16%. Congratulations to Senator Santorum. Now we see where Colorado goes.

Major Update (10:20 PM): 23% of Minnesota results are in and the previous numbers are holding. I expect the networks to call MN around 10:30 PM for Santorum. With 70% of the vote tallied in Missouri Santorum has twice the votes of Romney, who finds himself back at the 25%. Big day for Santorum, huge blow to Romney.

Major Update (10:10 PM): Minnesota’s count keeps coming in and Romney looks to be toast. 20% of the votes are in and Santorum as 44%, Paul has 27% and Romney is fighting for 3rd at 17%. If Romney loses all three contests tonight his campaign will have taken a serious blow. Maybe even a terminal one.

Morons Unite! - end update

Great Super Bowl! The Patriots and Giants ALWAYS play a great game, keeping it close to the last damn play. Last time we were in Key West, FL and enjoyed the last nail biter. This years was great (I hate blow outs).

But I tell you what, ex-Patriot Chris Collinsworth has posted some of the dumbest commentary of Super Bowl history.

When Patriot Welker dropped the pass late in the game, math wiz Chris noted Welker catches those passes 100 out of 100 times. Except when he drops them … No one is 100% Chris.

But the worst comment was near the end of the game when Collisnworth wisely noted that you want your Hail Mary’s a little closer to the end zone (the Pats were on their 40 something). Yes Chris, it is great to be past the 50 yard line to attempt Hail Marys

Well spotted.

And then, when the Giants were off sides, Chris was sure moving to the Patriots 47 yard line was a huge boost. I mean, what a game changer! 5 yards closer -  but still on the far side of the 50.

Yes, you typically want your Hail Marys from closer in Chris. Thanks for that gem of football wisdom.

But seriously, congrats to the Patriots and Giants for another well fought game down to the wire. And congratulations to the Giants for going from 7 and 7 to world champions. Cinderella seasons bring hope to every fan in every city.

Well played gentlemen.

Update: MVP is Eli – who was good but not the key. Pierre-Paul, Mannigham or Nicks were better choices for MVP since they made the plays. Eli was good, these guys were the difference.

I predicted Obama’s 8-9% deficit in his ratings would disappear. They have (Obama now 46-46 at Gallup).

I predicted the Dems would lead in the Congressional Ballot polls after being behind for a year: They have (Dems now up 3 at RCP).

And I predicted a Romney candidacy would turn off voters. And it has:

Mitt Romney’s easy victory in Nevada’s Republican presidential caucuses might, in the long run, be less important than the fact that a surprising number of Republicans who could have participated Saturday chose to stay home.

Republicans’ disappointing turnout foreshadows difficulty energizing GOP voters in Nevada, a key swing state in November’s general election.

Romney and the GOP establishment have been attacking the 2010 insurgent voters, who rightfully want to shrink everyone’s power in DC and put it back in the hands of the people. This has made the angry 2010 voter the enemy of the GOP – a strange way to win elections.

I can summarize this as f0llows: Obamacare versus Romneycare – where is a voter to find “none of the above!”?

I will provide an update later today after my day job waves stop overwhelming me.

If all is well Obama’s poll numbers will sink back to being around 9+% underwater, the GOP edge over the Dems in the generic congressional polls will rebound to +9% and money will flow in to the campaign war chests.

If Romney’s coronation is a net negative, then the Obama’s poll numbers will go slightly positive, the Dems will be equal or lead the GOP in the congressional ballot, the coffers will not fill, and conservative media will see one of their worst years ever.

Now we sit back and wait and see. The theory and conditions are out there.

Meanwhile, a Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, has Mr. Gingrich with a manageable-looking 7 points deficit. And he was down just 4 points in interviews conducted on Sunday alone, according to a cross-tabulation provided to FiveThirtyEight.

Well, well, well. I saw one poll claiming Romney is winning Evangelicals and the Tea Party. Sounds fishy to me. I would say tomorrow is going to be very surprising - end update.

The other day I noted that primary polls this year were not to be trusted, especially in Florida since the turnout modes used by pollsters has little prayer of being right given this cycle is like none other – so there is no historic basis to any turnout model. The factors I listed that made this year so unique in Florida primary history:

First off, we still have the 2010 insurgent voter out there. This can be seen in the fact that the current GOP voters in Florida are not the same ones from 4 years ago:

Republicans have narrowed the Democrats’ registration edge in Florida since November 2008, when Barack Obama carried the state. And with the Jan. 31 primary still nearly two weeks away, more than 446,000 Florida Republicans have requested absentee ballots — far exceeding the 307,744 absentee requests for the 2008 GOP primary.

Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election.

Assuming the number of voters has not changed in Florida (still 11.2 million), the number of new GOP voters is euqal to the change in the gap between registered GOP and Democrat voters. This change is 1.5% or 168,000 new GOP voters, out of a total number 4, 054,400. This represents 4% of the total GOP voters.

4% is a large number when candidates are even 8% apart. A 4% shift moves a blow-out to a tie.

Another factor I noted was how Florida is actually in the kingmaker position this cycle, something they are never really in since they were historically one of the many Super Tuesday contests. This new pivotal position in the GOP selection process is going to really change the turnout models:

Florida moved their primary date up again this cycle (cutting their delegates from 99 to 50, with no super delegates) to move off of one of the Super Tuesdays. One thing is true, if voters don’t feel their vote counts, they don’t take the time to vote. Florida has never been in this position, where their vote will make a huge difference in who takes on Obama. So voters are going to come out in historic numbers (like they did in SC).

Just to be clear, this prediction has already come true in the early, absentee voting. This is a record voter turnout year already:

Early voting began statewide nine days ago, and according to figures released Monday afternoon by the Florida Department of State, which runs the division of elections, 293,760 people have already cast ballots.

But wait, there’s more. According to the state, more than 531,000 people have requested and were sent absentee ballots, and 338,753 have been returned and received by Florida officials.

Add it all together and more than 632,000 votes have already been cast before primary day.

The story goes on to claim this will help Romney because he has the better GOTV organization. But if his GOTV is activating 2010 insurgent voters, he is turning out his own opposition. Romney is now the establishment candidate after his brutal campaigning.

But something else may be in play right now, and that is Team Romney’s over the top negative campaign against the Tea Party insurgents. In the 2010 GOP landslide, a whopping 41% of the voters were Tea Parry supporters.

Exit poll data indicate that 41 percent of those voting in House races Tuesday said they support the Tea Party. Thirty-one percent of voters said they oppose the Tea Party. And a quarter of voters take no position on the Tea Party one way or the other.

I was about to concede the state to Romney, but I was hesitant to understand why polls moved so quickly. There is no policy reason for the move. Yes, there was a lot of Romney mud-slinging, but that tends to smear both candidates in the mud pit.

One thing I noticed in 2010 and in 2011/20012 was that America is still enraged and fed up with the status quo and the party/political establishment.  This anger and frustration resulted in these voters tuning out politics until action could be taken. This showed up in SC in spades, as the polls picked up the shift to Newt in the last week. I think these voters are not engaging until the last minute.

BTW, SC is accustomed to being a pivotal and early primary state. While they had a record turnout, the turnout models would hold up fairly well there since the SC role was not unusual.

A late poll coming out today lends credence to the possibility that Mitt Romney could be heading for a Dewey Moment:

The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows:

• Romney 36 percent
• Gingrich 31 percent
• Santorum 12 percent
• Paul 12 percent
• Other/Undecided 9 percent

“The race will be tighter than expected,” Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.

As is noted in the accompanying story, Insider advantage was the first to detect the SC shift to Gingrich.

My rose-colored theory is that the insurgent voters of 2010 are still out there, but running silent and deep. They are spurning the pollsters, becoming undetectable. Also, as I noted in the previous post, even if the insurgent centrist voter is answering the poll, they could easily be thrown out of the ‘likely voter’ pool because of the simple fact Tea Party insurgents are new to the political process, many voting for the first time in a long time in 2010. And very few participating in the primary process. No previous voting in primaries gets you punted out of the ‘likely’ voter pool.

What if this key voting block is being missed by pollsters?

Does it really make sense the 2012 voter is that much different from the 2010 insurgent voter? Did the 2010 insurgent voter all of sudden decide to go milquetoast and support Romney? I see no reason for them to shift from angry backlash to pragmatic lambs. What happened in 2011 or 2012 to make them passive supporters of more of the same in DC?

I would expect if their support for Romney was real, Obama would be sinking in the polls, not rising as he is. Even Democrats are showing a come back against the GOP in the congressional ballot. Seeing the backlash against Obama and the Dems drop off over the last three weeks just as Romney is rising has me questioning if the rise is real support, or the 2010 tsunami voter has just gone silent until they hit the voting booth tomorrow.

My guess is a large turn out tomorrow helps Newt. I see nothing for the 2010 insurgents to all of a sudden become passive establishment followers. In fact, given how lame the GOP House has been since 2010, I only see rising frustration.

Which is why maybe tomorrow will not be as the polls say. The only problem with this theory is the fact that so many polls show a Romney cake walk. Hard to believe they are all wrong – unless the voters are not cooperating and indicating the truth out there.

Needless to say, tomorrow evening will set the path for this nation for the next 4 years. In terms of stopping the out of control federal government, there are few options left. Romney and Obama will fight all bold changes. They are so similar is hard to believe its worth having an election. But we shall see….

Scientists who make discoveries reassess every aspect of the assumed known science and determine where it was falling down. When you realize an aspect of a scientific theory is in violation of known facts (usually from other fields of science not so well known in the field in question), you can begin to explore where the truth could or does lie. And you discover new truths from the perch of an open mind.

From day one I have looked at the El Niño effect and decided it is impossible for this much heat to build up from solar or atmospheric heating alone. As is usual with the very, very young science of global climate, you should always consider the fact that we have long assumed the wrong cause and effect relationship (e.g., CO2 as a driver, versus results of, warmer temps). It is just as likely (and as I go through this post, becomes more likely) that El Niño is the result of something else, and the atmospheric responses in terms of weather and climate are just that -  the response and not the cause. What I walk through below is a myriad of processes that preclude the theory that El Niño/El Niña are driven by atmospheric/solar heating. Which leaves really only one source for the phenomena left, which I introduce through deduction.

Wikipedia has a reasonable description of the conventional wisdom surrounding El Niño:

El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. The Southern Oscillation refers to variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (warming and cooling known as El Niño and La Niña respectively) and in air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The two variations are coupled: the warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific, while the cold phase, La Niña, accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific.^[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

…

The accepted definition is a warming or cooling of at least 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) averaged over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of 2–7 years and lasts nine months to two years.^[5] The average period length is 5 years. When this warming or cooling occurs for only seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña “conditions”; when it occurs for more than that period, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña “episodes”.^[6]

Emphasis mine. With a period of 2-7 years and a duration 0.75 to 2 years, it is pretty obvious this probably is not due to solar heating and atmospheric processes alone. Solar and atmospheric heating show annual, seasonal fluctuations. Also, solar heating has been pretty steady over these time scales, as would be the atmospheric response. So it does not seem to logically follow the kind of phenomena is driven by climate.

The amount of heat showing up in this 0.5° heating (El Niño) – or lack if it during cooling (El Niña) – is mind boggling large. Too large to be caused by Sun and Air alone. The other day it dawned on me we can estimate how much energy is required to achieve this kind of warming. And it begins with reviewing the Coriolis Effect on ocean currents, which creates the great Ocean Gyres:

Gyres are caused by the Coriolis Effect; planetary vorticity along with horizontal and vertical friction, which determine the circulation patterns from the wind curl (torque).^[1] The term gyre can be used to refer to any type of vortex in the air or the sea, even one that is man-made, but it is most commonly used in oceanography to refer to the major ocean systems.

…

The “South Pacific Gyre” is the Earth’s biggest system of rotating ocean currents, bounded by equator to the north, Australia to the west, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to the south, and South America to the east.

The graph above [click to enlarge] illustrates this massive movement of water. It is these ocean gyres which pull warm water up the east coast of North America (i.e., the Gulf Stream) and Arctic waters down the West Coast. It is why most of us would rather swim off the coast of Virginia in the Summer than the off the coast of San Francisco. In the Southern Hemisphere it is identical. The eastern coast of South America gets warm water pumped pole-ward from the equatorial region, while the west coast has a massive cold flow of water from the Antarctic  (noted in the diagram as the Peru or Humboldt current).

It dawned on me that this massive amount of cold water flowing down the west coast of South America to the eastern equatorial region of the South Pacific would cool any solar or atmospheric warming without missing a beat. To under stand the amount of water flowing in this current, let’s look at the Gulf Stream for which there is more data available:

A great ocean current transporting about 70,000,000 tons (63,000,000 metric tons) of water per second (1000 times the discharge of the Mississippi River) northward from the latitude of Florida to the Grand Banks off Newfoundland.

Since the South Pacific Gyre is the largest on the planet, and the Humboldt one of the largest currents, we can use the Gulf Stream numbers as a conservative representation. That is a lot of water – per second! Try heating that on your stove.

Now let’s look closer at where the El Niño shows up, which will show us why it is impossible for this to be due to heating in the Western Pacific that then travels eastward to build up off the west coast of the Americas. It is impossible because the theory is swimming up stream of the ocean gyres.

Here is a classic El Niño thermal map from one of the largest El Niño periods on record (1997, which was followed by the warmest year on record since the 1960′s) – click all images to enlarge:

If you look closely you can see the hot El Niño phenomena is spreading westward off the coast of Peru. One could see this as building up eastward versus tapering off westward I guess. But when we look at the positions of the South Pacific Gyre currents it becomes clear which direction the water (and heat) is flowing.

I used the following close-up map of the currents in the area of the El Niño hot spot:

To estimate where the warm spot is originating versus spreading, I overlaid (as best I could) the current map on the JPL image of the phenomena (note, the two views are not from the same perspective, so I lined them up in the region of Central America to obtain the best overlay):

In order to better see the primary current flows, I added blue arrows for the cold Arctic and Antarctic currents coming down the west coast of the Americas. These then bend at the equator and flow east-to-west. I also added the warm Pacific equatorial flow that runs west-to-east using a red arrow.

First thing to notice is how the El Niño hot spot clearly trails off the Humboldt current  It is NOT coming off the west-to-east equatorial warm current.The equatorial current is well above the phenomena.

To reemphasize, with the polar currents dumping over 70,000,000 gross tons of cold water per second EACH into this area, it is impossible for atmospheric warming to warm this much water. If one BTU is required to warm one pound of water, the number to over power these cold currents is astronomical (and ridiculous). And yes, I have consider the Bernoulli effect of thermal rivers. I think that is what is keeping the warm spot below the west-to-east equatorial flow.

So if not solar/atmospheric heating from the west, what could it be?

One of my biggest peeves with Climate Science today is how it ignores the mass of molten metal under our feet. It is amazing how little we know about the core of the Earth and its effect on climate. The theory of plate tectonics was accepted within my lifetime, so it too is a very young branch of science. We know very little, but what we do know is mind boggling:

In the graph above we see the incredible warm mass existing below us. The big warning sign ‘not to scale‘ needs to be heeded with supreme caution. The mass of warm metal and rock  contained in the mantel and core is 6400 kilometers deep. The continental crust upon which we live is one tenth (10%) that molten column. The ocean crust is even thinner at only 1-2% thick (5-10 kilometers).

While our sampling of the atmospheric temperature from land based thermometers is poor (25% of the Earth’s surface taken with sporadic methodologies over a short historical time), and our sampling of the sea surface temperatures is pathetic (for 75% of the Earth’s surface with even less data) our understanding of the energy flow from below is as close to zero as you can get. I can say this. It is not even across the globe or constant in time (think Yellow Stone Park). So we have no idea what the energy input from Mother Earth is in or global energy balance. No idea at all. And with this grand ignorance we make sweeping declarations on global climate?

But we have much more information on the Earth than we did just 30 years ago.

For example, we recently discovered at the oceanic ridges a mass of underwater volcanic structures called black smokers:

What is important to understand about this  unique energy transfer system is that water at these pressures will retain and distribute massive amounts of heat energy. This happens because at these depths and pressures, water will not boil, and instead will take heat away – probably great distances:

In contrast to the approximately 2 °C ambient water temperature at these depths, water emerges from these vents at temperatures ranging from 60 °C up to as high as 464 °C.

Water is a rapid transportation system of thermal energy. It can dissipate heat very rapidly. So if there is any energy source that can rapidly warm cold water from the Antarctic, it is likelyy to be volcanic heat trapped in water at extreme depths. This nutrient rich, super hot water would rise through the colder Humboldt current transferring its heat energy as it moved.

So, is there an under water ridge in the area? Yes. And it exists right under the El Niño phenomena. Here is an image of the Pacific Ocean:

Even the untrained eye can see the ridges off the north-western coast of South America that form a triangle . Here is a view with the triangle of ocean ridge highlighted in yellow:

The final piece to the puzzle is to now overlay the currents and warm ocean area to see what makes physical sense.

Clearly, the integrated view of currents, warm water and volcanic/tectonic structures would indicate the El Niño/El Niña phenomena are more likely to be due to underwater warming from volcanism than anything else. Note how the currents align almost perfectly with the triangle of ridges off the coast of South America. Also note how the equatorial current acts as a barrier for the warm waters to go north, instead bending them back to the south of the Equator. I added more red arrows to illustrate how the Humholdt current would draw the hot water over the triangular ridges away.

Also think about the oceanic geography. The ridges form a bowl that could hold much of  the super hot water under layers of colder, denser water. As the rate of volcanism rises or continues, the warm dome of water would peak over the ridges and then begin to spread and rise as the Humboldt begins to warm at the equator. This could be the 2-7 year cycle we see. The the pacific equatorial current could be pushing the water into the basin until it overflows. Once enough water is pulled from the bowel, the heating cycle begins.

The bowl inside the ridges is the pot, while the black smokers are the gas stove.

This makes sense when we look at the duration and cycles of El Niño/El Niña. Volcanic phenomena don’t operate on annual cycles like climate. In fact, this region is one of the most geologically active in the world. Active plate tectonics means massive amounts of energy transfer of all kinds. Again, think Yellowstone, but on a much bigger scale and under water.

The physics behind this theory for the El Niño/El Niña phenomena is much more sound than the idea that a ~0.5°C rise in temperature in the Western Pacific air temps can create a 0.5° rise in a current that is moving millions of tons of cold water per second many thousand miles away on the coast of South America. From the view of fluid dynamics, thermal dynamics and geology (plate tectonics) this theory makes much more sense.

]]> http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/18003/feed 27 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/17997 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/17997#comments Sun, 29 Jan 2012 15:15:29 +0000 AJStrata http://strata-sphere.com/blog/?p=17997

Well, well, well. It seems the establishment GOP is so determined not to let the 2012 insurgent voter get a piece of their political pie they will do anything to get Romney elected. Sarah Palin – as one of the Tea Party, libertarian leaders – has not been silent on the mudslinging against Newt Gingrich from the GOP establishment:

How can he say he’s not a part of the establishment? Well, look at the players in the establishment who are fighting so hard against him. They want to crucify him because he has tapped into that average, every day American Tea Party grassroots movement that has said enough is enough of the establishment, that tries to run the show and tweak rules and laws and regulations for their own good and not for our nation’s own good. Well, when both party machines and many in the media are trying to crucify Newt Gingrich for bucking the tide and bucking the establishment that tells you something.

And I say, you know, you got to rage against the machine at this point in order to defend our republic and save what is good and secure and prosperous about our nation. We need somebody who is engaged in sudden and relentless reform and isn’t afraid to shake it up, shake up that establishment. So, if for no other reason, rage against the machine, vote for Newt. Annoy a liberal, vote Newt! Keep this vetting process going. Keep the debate going.

Make sure to go the link and listen to the entire video piece.

Now Herman Cain is coming out supporting Newt – the last insurgent candidate to be pushed out by an arrogant GOP establishment:

Former presidential hopeful Herman Cain threw his support behind Newt Gingrich Saturday night, providing the former House speaker with a late boost just days before Florida’s primary.

Cain, a tea party favorite, endorsed his fellow Georgian at a GOP fundraiser Saturday calling him “a patriot.”

“Speaker Gingrich is not afraid of bold ideas,” Cain said.

So with Sarah and Herman now aligned AGAINST the establishment Romney, we have the situation where the GOP establishment has clearly declared war against the 2010 insurgent voter and the Tea Party.

Which means they will lose elections up and down the card. They have to. Insurgent voters have no choice but to let the Democrats win until the GOP establishment wakes up, gives up or is fired.

Clearly, some think Obama is so scary that voters will do anything to avoid 4 more years. But the Tea Party insurgent voters are actually immune to government since they prefer to fend for themselves. They may determine that 4 more years of idiotic policies from the left is not much different from 4 more years of idiotic policies from the right. We have suffered through 3 decades of this crap, we can probably handle another decade if that is what it takes to start purging one the establishment from the DC Temples of Power.

When you want to shrink government, and the ones in the way of your goals are the very ones addicted to government largesse, it does not matter which side you have to destroy in order to create a fresh start and direction. Call it creative destruction – the democratic way. Mitt & GOP – your about to be Bain’d by 2012 voters.

Why would any 2010 insurgent voter be for Romney, who is a vague version of Obama? Why? Will we flock to Romeny’s cold Big Business to thwart Obama’s cold Big Government? LOL – not likely. How about we let the GOP suffer political losses until they realize they will keep losing until they listen to America? Sounds like a path out of the darkness versus more wandering in it.

Florida looks like it will be a Pyrrhic victory for Romney and the GOP – and the end of their run with moderate, Main Street, middle class voters. They went for the ‘scorch the Tea Party’ path, and the results will not be a surprise. I have watched Obama’s poll numbers get better and better as Romney and the GOP Sithe torched half their base. After this week the political climate will change. And as is typical, the pivot will come in Florida.

And it will be one of those lines that cannot be uncrossed. Romney and the GOP establishment should have remembered Reagan’s 11th commandment.

So it looks like Newt is losing some ground. But how much?

Impossible to say because all these polls are all based on unreliable turn out models for “Republican likely voters in Florida”. How you define that class of poll responders depends on how accurate your poll is.

And how you typically determine the voter pool for any primary election is using historical turn out data. Which will not work this year.

Right now it is safe to assume Romney could win, but I would not lay more than a dime on the line for it. Because this election is not typical of past Florida primaries on many fronts.

First off, we still have the 2010 insurgent voter out there. This can be seen in the fact that the current GOP voters in Florida are not the same ones from 4 years ago:

Republicans have narrowed the Democrats’ registration edge in Florida since November 2008, when Barack Obama carried the state. And with the Jan. 31 primary still nearly two weeks away, more than 446,000 Florida Republicans have requested absentee ballots — far exceeding the 307,744 absentee requests for the 2008 GOP primary.

Figures released by the Division of Elections today show Florida has 11.2 million voters, with 40.5 percent registered as Democrats and about 36.2 percent as Republicans. The gap of 4.3 percentage points between Democratic and Republican registrations compares to a 5.8-point gap that favored Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election.

“The gap is closing due to the enthusiasm people have to oust Obama,” says Republican Party of Florida spokesman Brian Hughes. “People are hurting. The economy is turning around in Florida, but slowly, and they see at the national stage there’s not enough momentum and they’re ready for a change in leadership.”

This means the voter models used by pollsters are likely not accurate to what the turn out will be Tuesday. How many of these new registrants are insurgent voters who have no history of voting in Florida Primaries but took the time to register since Obama took office? My guess is this new GOP voter is likely to fail the ‘likely voter’ screens. They have no history of voting.

This is what caused many to underestimate the 2010 backlash wave. The mood of the electorate was so energized it defied all historical trends. This is the Achilles’ Heel of polls – they rely on stability in the voter pool to bring confidence to their turnout models.

The second big change for Florida is their role as kingmaker. Florida moved their primary date up again this cycle (cutting their delegates from 99 to 50, with no super delegates) to move off of one of the Super Tuesdays. One thing is true, if voters don’t feel their vote counts, they don’t take the time to vote. Florida has never been in this position, where their vote will make a huge difference in who takes on Obama. So voters are going to come out in historic numbers (like they did in SC).

This ALSO destroys turn out models. Primaries are the most volatile of elections to gauge in terms of turn out, since for Presidents seeking a 2nd term their party primary is a fate compli. This means half the historic record is inaccurate from the beginning.

Given the completely unique political environment we have today, a surge in GOP voter ranks in Florida and a primary that actually matters forget the turn out models in these polls. If their statistical Margin of Error is 3-4%, their actual margin of error due to turn out model uncertainties could range from 5-10%.

Be prepared to be surprised.

Update: Hot Air poses a question with some answers:

And with another day we get another fresh round of polling showing one of two things: either the good citizens of Florida are prone to fits of multiple personality disorder or the pollsters are just having some fun with us.

Or, the Florida race is unmeasurable by pollsters for the reasons I gave above.

Addendum: Watch for one other phenomena that might arise. The Santorum and Paul voters may realize their only hope of stopping Romney (and RomneyCare) is to get with Newt. If the vote is to stop the establishment at all costs, this could easily happen. In some polls 30+% are open to changing their minds. In SC that late deciders broke to Newt in a wave. Paul has been signalling he has not interest in the White House any more, so his supporters should shift to someone more viable given the meaning of this race.

Yes, I deliberately mangled the Star Wars analogy. I know it is hard to detect when I deliberately do that versus my penchant for typos and dyslexic writing. My apologies – but I love strategery

Today we see another lame effort by the GOP establishment to take out Newt – by calling on the Ghost of GOP Past: Ronald Wilson Reagan.

Unmentioned by Gingrich then, or in any of the 2,414 debates during this campaign, was his 1985 criticism of President Reagan’s historic meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev as “the most dangerous summit for the West since Adolf Hitler met with (British Prime Minister) Chamberlain at Munich in 1938.”

I’m unimpressed. A young and cautious Gingrinch was schooled on politically bold moves by one of the masters of using his beliefs to guide his path.  Similar to the successful behavior of George W Bush, who won his goals and the support of the people by sticking to principles, not saying one thing and doing another.

But why cry foul now because Newt did not always agree with Reagan back then? Is this piety to the image of a man of the people who rose to the Presidency going to impress anyone but the slavish Reagan Groupies (think Hannity here, who wants to be like Reagan but is not even close)?

Does the GOP establishment think Reagan was the reason they rode road to victory in 2010? Talk about your misfire.

I will say it again – this year’s key voters are the same Tea Party insurgents who swept away the old-tired guard in 2010. They hitched their cart to the small-government GOP and are taking the Republican Party by storm. They are going to change the GOP party through the age old art of democracy. Because they are going to change DC.

The other GOP establishment attack strategy has been to (1) claim Newt is too volatile, too bold and (2) Newt is impure. In fact the Reagan swipes are part of the “Newt is impure, too imperfect” gambit.

Let me take the 2nd issue first. The 2010 insurgent voters sees all of DC as dirty and conniving. No one is going to win by trying to convince these voters they are the least stained, or the others are more stained. Romney has RomneyCare, Bain Capitol and his liberal, big government dark side. Newt has no claim to fidelity and honor at home. As the WSJ noted previously, the best way to look at this field is:

As for the current GOP field, it’s like confronting a terminal diagnosis. There may be an apparent range of treatments: conventional (Romney), experimental (Gingrich), homeopathic (Paul) or prayerful (Santorum). But none will avail you in the end. Just try to exit laughing.

We are swimming in imperfections, so this impure and imperfect attack mode is a none starter.

So what will work? Well generalities won’t because the 2010 insurgent voter is not stupid nor naive. Vague and empty phrases only repel this upper middle class, successful voter (once know as the silent majority). They (or we) see things differently. We don’t want cautious or conventional (Romney). We want action. And that answers why the first kind of attack is failing.

We don’t want prayers or new age promises of instant success (Santorum and Paul). We want bold experimentation with an eye to shrink government to its minimum size (note well I did not say optimum size). Now that has some serious appeal!

I noted yesterday that I was going to explain why Romney and Bain are not the paragons of the free market so many Romney supporters want to claim. Bain is, and was, part vulture capitalism. Newt’s documentary on the wreckage left by Romney and Bain after pulling millions of dollars out of corporate carcasses is spot on in this regard. He did not do it universally, but he did do it a lot. Too much.

The defense has been “it is legal and he paid his taxes”. Well let me introduce you to a legendary business man who made is wealth legally and paid his taxes. He too was a big fan of destructive capitalism:

Yes folks, it is the fictional character Ebenezer Scrooge. The worst of the corporate raiders to be known by so many around the world. He has his real life contemporaries like robber barons and sweat shop owners. He is an example of what no business owner or manager should ever want to be associated with.

Now, if any of you Romney backers are thinking I am comparing Romney and Bain to Scrooge chill down. My only point here is you can be a legal, tax paying businessman and rightfully despised. Sadly for Romney, his actions at Bain allow a connection to this well known image of businessmen who forget or ignore the human factor when chasing profits.

In Dickens’ A Christmas Carol there was the counter example to Scrooge, the image of an admirable and loved businessman. This is embodied in the character of Mr. Fezziwig:

Fezziwig is one of the few people to whom Scrooge is thankful, for he says, “He has the power to render us happy or unhappy; to make our service light or burdensome; a pleasure or a toil…The happiness he gives, is quite as great as if it cost a fortune.” Scrooge is reminded how much he once appreciated Fezziwig. Since Fezziwig is the elder Scrooge’s opposite in many ways — in kindness, generosity, affection for his employees, relationship with family, and apparent happiness — Scrooge is thus confronted with the fact that his own choices have diverged greatly from those of someone he admires.

Now I would say, on the home front, Romney is closer to Fezziwig. But on the corporate front he is definitely tilted to the Scrooge side of the spectrum. And when we look to someone to dismantle Big Government, we are not looking for someone who takes an ax to the deal. There are still lives, careers and families to deal with.

So is there a Fezziwig in the race? Not any more. Herman Cain was playing that role (which is why he was succeeding so well). But there are Fezziwig like examples out there – and they exist in small businesses (not Big Government).

The best example I can come up with I think people could connect with is a man named Chef Robert Irvine and his uplifting show Restaurant Impossible.

I love this show because it is admirable on so many levels. Here is a successful man answering the calls of desperate small businesses (many family owned and run). Chef Irvine comes in with 2 days and $10,000 and literally saves people from ruin and despair. He does not walk away with millions. He does, however, try to save every job. He gives secrets, talents and skills he has learned away to the needy.

He teaches the people how to fish (or run a restaurant), he does not hand out fish.

This show is an example of what 2010 voters cherish and admire – and why Romney will never connect. He is not this kind of corporate re-builder. These people work their butts off to help others. And many of these people are below rock bottom. Savior versus profiteer.

Does Irvin and his folks get some financial return? Of course. But his goal is to salvage the company at all costs, not savage it for all potential profits.

2010 voters instinctively know the difference. They know Big Government is incapable of such actions (though the big government types strive to be Robin Hood, while they decide who is ‘worthy’). They know the difference between a Romney and an Irvine (or the Fezziwig verses Scrooge class).

Is Newt imperfect and radical? Yes. Is that bad? Not to a 2010 insurgent voter.

Is Newt an impure conservative? Yes. Is that bad? Not to a 2010 insurgent voter.

Is Newt pissing off the GOP establishment? Yes. Is that the primary goal of the 2010 insurgent voter?

You Betcha!

It is really disturbing when your side loses its objectivity and shows signs of deep political denial. It makes them look just like liberals.

For example, the Romney camps are singing “Amen!” at a bunch of new polls out. Just check this out at Hot Air:

This makes three new polls showing him [Romney] either tied with Newt or back in the lead after Gingrich’s big post-South Carolina surge.

I am simply stunned at these claims as I showed in a comment on this post.  The part I emphasized is mathematically wrong. Dead wrong.

Here is my comment on how ridiculous all this high-fiving really is:

Good lord folks, It is not the snapshot number but the trend [that matters]. Go to RCP and edutate [deliberate misspelling] yourself:

CNN/Time 1/13-17/12 = Romney +24
CNN/Time 1/22-24/12 = Romney +2

Losing 20% points in less than 2 weeks is not a good sign. And +2 is well within the Margin of Error (MoE).

Check out PPP:

PPP 1/14-16/12 = Romney +15
PPP 1/22-23/12 = Gingrich +5

Hmm, another 20% drop and outside the MoE. Are we all seeing the TREND now?

Rasmussen 1/11/12 = Romney +22
Rasmussen 1/22/12 = Gingrich +9

Wow – 30% point drop….

Are you political experts really going to stand by the idea Romney is coming back? Do you mind if we all have a good laugh at your expense????

Let me add one more nail to this coffin:

Quinnipiac 1/4-8/12 = Romney +12
Quinnipiac 1/19-23/12 = Romney +2

All data points to Romney losing ground, not rebounding.

Tomorrow I will post on why Romney – even as a legitimate and successful business owner – can still not be admired by Main Street voters and small business owners. It will expose another method for denial – generalities. Sadly for all these people, ignoring the inconvenient truths will not garner a win, it simply means you miss the coming wave and the ability to take it on.

That’s the real lesson of South Carolina’s Saturday primary, where Newt Gingrich, the Che Guevara of the right, always interested in leading a rebellion, smashed Mr. Romney, the Harvard M.B.A. interested in carefully calibrated, data-driven change. The South Carolina story—and the story going forward from here—isn’t so much Newt vs. Mitt as it is the insurgents vs. the establishment.

In fact, that has been the story of the Republican Party since the tea-party uprising began in 2009. The drama now will play out anew in the remaining Republican primary calendar.

Sort of obvious, but I am glad others are beginning to wake up and smell the frustration. BTW, the WSJ also garners the best summary of this primary election cycle:

As for the current GOP field, it’s like confronting a terminal diagnosis. There may be an apparent range of treatments: conventional (Romney), experimental (Gingrich), homeopathic (Paul) or prayerful (Santorum). But none will avail you in the end. Just try to exit laughing.

Sadly, I can’t laugh off this mess.A great opportunity ws offered up by the serial failures of Obama, Reid and Pelosi – only to squander it with The Damnable 4. - end update

No wonder Mitt Romney hesitated to disclose his income tax returns. Technically he does not work since nearly all his income is through investment profits:

Mitt Romney offered a partial snapshot of his vast personal fortune late Monday, disclosing income of $21.7 million in 2010 and $20.9 million last year — virtually all of it profits, dividends or interest from investments.

Emphasis mine. Clearly, this is not someone who represents Main Street. He is currently unemployed, but not in  way that connects with Main Street. They guy is set for life and for generations to come. Must be nice. How do I get  Big “FILL IN THE BLANK” out of my way so I too can reach my personal end of the rainbow?

Romney is not like Herman Cain, who worked his way from the lower middle class to the upper class. Cain is someone I can relate to and assume he understands how hard it is to break free of the legislative chains that hold entrepreneurs downs. Romney is a corporate raider who made millions the easy way – the Haarvaaard way. He bought out struggling companies, leveraged their assets with massive debt, took his profits and left ruin and destruction in his wake. I want no connection with him. I am a small business owner, not a corporate raider.

Romney is a vulture, not a creator. Vultures have their purpose in nature and economics, but they are not what someone wants in a national leader.Will he dismantle big government, or twist it to help Wall Street? Does he even understand what the average person has to deal with? Not likley.

Sacrifice? Others sacrificed for Romney to gain his riches.

Innovation? Others provided the core product and services for those rare instances when Bain turned a company around instead of using it as a vehicle to collect millions and then run (what a great ironic coincidence to have Mitt’s Bain actually be his political ‘bane’)

Olympic Savior? I guess if it were not for him none of those dedicated athletes would have been able to compete?

I hear echos of Al Gore and his infamous Internet every time Romney lays claim to Olympic success.

In this instance, Romney is the epitome of Bullying Big Business who likes to implement Big Government solutions when in office. So how is this model going to beat Big Government Obama and his Bullying Big Business connections???? This is just not computing. It definitely is not uplifting and energizing.

Romney is about as far from the Tea Party ideal candidate as you can get without being a liberal Democrat. The Tea Party is a Main Street USA (small business, not big business) phenomena. It is opposes Big Government and is barely tolerant of Big Business (and their hooks now embedded in our political process). The Tea Party movement also distrusts Big Labor. Big is bad – individual is good. Helping others is good, destruction and suffering is to be avoided at all costs.

The Tea Party is all about enabling the individual, protecting the small business from Big Labor, Big Government and Big Wall Street conglomerates. It is Libertarian movement.

It is not Romney. And that is why he is failing. The disconnect between the establishment candidate (Romney) and the 2010 electorate is wide and glaring. And that is why Newt is gaining. Because as far as he is from the Tea Party ideal, he is miles closer to the 2010 backlash voter than Romney ever will be.

The best answers actually came from Santorum, who in my mind won the debate technically. He was spot on every question posed. The big problem with this debate, Santorum and Paul were not given equal opportunities to discuss issues. Paul suffered from his usual foreign policy blind spots, but I cannot think of a single Santorum mistake. Newt was good in a general sense but nothing stood out. Santorum had the sharpest conservative response.

Romney, came in last with his usual bland and vague responses. Romney likely fell further behind after this showing. Might have even fallen behind Santorum. I got the overall feeling pandering seems to be is modus operandi.

Newt was fairly good, but I think Santorum bested him. What will be interesting is if Santorum actually takes Romney.

NBC sucked. Their questions sucked.  Their preference to Newt and Mitt sucked. NBC’s comparison of political operatives to our military on the front lines was horrific. What a horrible debate from a host sense.

On a note close to home, Mitt’s answer to the NASA/Space Coast question was moronic. NASA needs to keep leading the exploration into space until it becomes commercially viable. Mitt’s idea to build a committee of bureaucracies to explore space was moronic. The last bureaucratic approach to space was a billion dollar disaster:

The White House decided the cancel NPOESS after numerous delays and cost overruns that made the program the subject of Congressional ridicule and high-level government investigations.

NPOESS satellites would not have begin launching until 2014, at the earliest. The projected cost of the NPOESS program had more than doubled to $13.9 billion at the time of the Feb. 1 announcement to scrap the system.

NPOESS was replaced by another program that focused on getting instruments into space. What got me was how no one, except the news media, noted how America today cannot get its astronauts to our own Space Station thanks to Obama.

To miss this key fact is to miss the core problem right now in DC. Mitt lost Florida by not understanding what is happening on the Space Coast and how it is boarding up jobs because the Obama administration preferred a dumb train in CA over space exploration.

Romney failed again. Gringrich expanded his momentum from SC. But Santorum performed best. Look for Rick to pull support from Romney.

For those frustrated voters who sent a wave of new faces to DC in 2010 – to only see them stymied and gagged by the Democrat run Senate and the impotent Super Committee – Newt Gringrich’s campaign represents something important.

He is a poke in the eye to the Political Industrial Complex, a signal that the voters really mean business – not business as usual.

I and many other libertarian/Tea Party types expected a lot more from the GOP House than the crap we saw over the last year. From their failure to achieve major spending cuts to the instantiation of the Super Committee which basically gagged the new representatives of the voters, DC has acted as if the voter backlash would dissipate and go away, and then everyone in DC could get back to business as usual and screwing everything up through Big Government solutions.

Which are always Big Government disasters. As we saw with the economic implosion caused by the Democrats messing with home loan requirements, as we saw with the Democrats and their mythical shovel ready jobs, as we saw with the Democrats and their ridiculous spending spree that has double our national debt.

Gingrich is a poke in the eye to the establishment. Look no farther than Ann Coulter and others to see how his successes are having an impact:

Conservative pundit Ann Coulter stopped by Fox and Friends Sunday morning and gave a spirited analysis of Newt Gingrich‘s decisive victory over Mitt Romney in the South Carolina primary. “Apparently, South Carolinians would rather have the emotional satisfaction of a snotty remark toward the president than to beat Obama in the fall,” Coulter zinged.

Governor Christie actually was the worst offender on the Sunday talk shows, belittling all those GOP primary voters (who remain the majority, even when split across 3 options):

“I think Newt Gingrich has embarrassed the party, over time,” Christie (R), who has endorsed Romney, said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “Gov. Romney never has.”

Apparently South Carolina voters are fed up with the current political class – Coulter and Christie included. Left and right, these supposedly seasoned veterans have helped lead this country into the ditch. Through a combination of unbending arrogance to their pet peeves and risky brinkmanship, left and right have split America so they could try and gain power and control of her. Not since Reagan has anyone brought us together (with the exception of 9-11, and it should never have to come to that).

Well, for these people to gain the power they crave  the American voters will need to feel so desperate they turn to DC for help. Interestingly enough, while DC is the problem the better solution is to drain the swamp and start over. And that means all the way over.

Something the political elite punditry, professional consultants and the well-connected have not figured out yet. Even conservative mega-blog sites are struggling to understand what is happening:

So, congratulations to Newt, and on to Florida. Let’s just pray that Barack Obama’s second term didn’t start today. If Gingrich does get the nomination, this may turn out to be a year in which Republicans more or less ignore the presidential race, ceding Obama his second term, and focus instead on trying to hold the House and, if possible, picking up a seat or two in the Senate, along with doing the best we can in state races where the wipeout at the presidential level doesn’t swamp all efforts to elect Republicans.

And that was supposed to be a congrats to Newt post! Oh the Humanity.

The doom and gloom around Newt is as interesting as it is pathetic. Newt has a good chance to win Florida and take the nomination now. As someone pointed out (lost the link) the Florida primary is closed to Republican voters, who are much more conservative and Tea Party supporting than the voters in South Carolina. And I think the voters are truly fed up with being told by the establishment who to vote for, so Newt is their man.

The more the DC insiders complain about a candidate, the more the voters are going to rally to that candidate. That is, in essence, how Obama won. Sadly he did not mean what came off his teleprompter. Cain was riding the same wave until he bowed out.

Gingrich looks to be staying in and staying on message. I have never thought Obama could win against anyone – his electability is as much a myth as anyone’s. So I am not seeing Romney that more electable than a ham sandwich.

Gingrich looks to be heading for a big win in Florida:

Less than two weeks ago,  Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here).

That is a 30% swing in 2 weeks. That is momentum with enough inertia (force in one direction) to blow this primary completely in a different direction. It is because of the GOP elites Newt has become the standard bearer for those who are desperately trying to get DC to wake up and pay attention. It’s not like we haven’t given them plenty of chances to stop screwing around. They should have listened.

Update: Readers have begun posting new polls showing a surging Newt. Reader Trent_Telenko links to a poll with Newt up by 8, while reader Frogg1 points to a PPP Poll showing Newt tied with Romney.

BTW, if the establishment tries to replace Gingrich, the backlash will only grow. If they are that dumb, they deserve the results.

Update: Make sure to check out Ed Morrissey’s take on Florida and Newt. A sample:

Romney might have hoped for a 20-point lead in early voting, rather than the 11 points indicated here.  That’s not too large for Gingrich to overcome through the rest of the early voting, especially if he can maintain a double-digit lead.  Thanks to the new momentum, Gingrich may have already begun eating into Romney’s head start among early voters

More Morrissey and  polls here.

As I expected, Newt must have just walloped Romney in SC. Fox News called it before 1% of the vote was in and based on exit polls only. The exit polls must be so one sided to be amazing given the way the media is reacting. The talking heads are acting as if Romney’s candidacy is just about toast.

Update: CNN is now acting as if Romeny might lose FL. The talk across the dial is this was devastating loss for Roomney.

Update: Krauthammer notes that 2/3rds of the voters decided this week and went with Newt. Can’t wait to see the final tally. It really is becoming anyone but Romney and Obama.

Update: Exit Poll data here, and a big hat tip to Hot Air. Romney’s ‘concession’ speech is a real snorer….

He’s boring his own supporters in his own campaign room.