Nov 07 2016

Colorado Early Voting 11_07_16: Dem Turnout Cratering

Source of this data is here.

In my last post on November 4th, I noted that the Democrat Early Voting  numbers were dropping off, while the GOP voting remained steady and the remaining groups (dominated by unaffiliated voters – a.k.a. “Independents”) where growing.

Colorado does not release their results over the weekend, so I was obviously anxious to see where things ended up today, the day before the election. Here is the cumulative votes for all three groups as reported this morning:

CO Early Vote By Party 11_07

The tallies are:

  • Dem: 645, 020
  • Rep: 652, 380
  • Ind: 554,629

The GOP has a lead of 7,360 ballots submitted. There is similar intensity across all three groups. So much for Hillary having an edge in GOTV.

But the real amazing insight comes from looking at the daily tallies. This is where you can see who is motivated to vote:

CO Early Vote By Day 11_07

As can be seen, it is usually the GOP voting that leads (but not all the time). The Independents and Other party voters are definitely becoming more intense here in the final days. You can begin to see a hint of the Democrat energy level tapering off.

This is much more apparent when we look at Percentage of the Total over time:

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_07

It is obvious the Democrats in Colorado are not keeping up with the GOP – which has seen very steady participation.  It is the Independent and “Other” group who are really increasing in intensity over time. They represent a last minute surge.

So, are these late breaking Independents tipping to Hillary or Trump?

That is the $64,000 question!

If they break for Trump I would expect to see a landslide in Colorado – as well as many other places.

2 responses so far

Nov 07 2016

FL Early Voting 11_07_16: GOP Voting Drops Off, But Independents Continue Strong

Update: Drudge confirms my analysis that Trump is in far less of a voting hole in Florida than Romney was the day before the election in 2012:

FLORIDA SHOCK: TRUMP OUTPERFORMS ROMNEY BY 130,000 IN EARLY VOTING!
Mon Nov 07 2016 12:03:12 ET
**World Exclusive**

Data obtained by the DRUDGE REPORT shows presidential underdog Donald Trump outperforming Republican 2012 election results in Florida.

Mitt Romney went into Election Day down 161,000 in absentee ballots and early voting. He ended up losing the state by 74,000.

This time, in a dramatic surprise twist, Trump is only down 32,500! And Republicans tend to outvote Democrats on Election Day in Florida.

EDITOR'S NOTE: A late poll showed Trump nearing 50% in the sunshine state.

Developing...

So take heart – this ain’t over. – AJStrata

End Update

The source for this data is here.

This last day before the election, and the day after In-Person voting ended in Florida, the Dems have a small lead in both number of ballots and percentage of the total ballots submitted.

2016 FL Early Voting_11_07

As of this morning, the Dem ballots led the GOP ballots by 88,012.  Again, a big number – but it does not translate into a big shift in the total.  The Dems will go into election day with ~39.9% of the early ballots to the GOP’s ~38.5%. A meager 1.4% difference.

Independents are at 19.3% if the total ballot count.

So we are in a  very tied up race in Florida. Moreover, with 6,424, 595 ballots cast, Florida has nearly hit the 50% mark of all registered voters.

Numbers released by the state Division of Elections Monday show that nearly 6.42 million voters have either voted early or voted by mail. There are nearly 12.9 million active registered voters.

Early voting wrapped up over the weekend. Election supervisors can continue to accept mailed in ballots.

This election is important and it looks like the voters are taking it seriously. It looks like we may hit record high turnout – a phenomena I think would benefit Trump. Participation in Florida was 72% in 2012 and 75% in 2008 (source here). I seriously doubt the Clinton campaign is such a voter magnet – especially given the size of the crowds greeting her and Kaine in Florida.

Is this a replay of Trump’s ability to bring out new voters? Is this like Brexit, where the turnout against the elites was so strong the pollsters’ turnout models could not conceive of such a thing happening?

With nearly 50% of the registered voters ALREADY casting their votes, what we see in these numbers should also reflect what we will see in the general election results. This time, it may be early voting will foretell the final vote.

If this cycle did work out that way, it would be a new phenomena.  As noted in previous posts the Dems won the early voting in 2012, but the GOP won on election day. Obama held on to win, but by a razor thin margin (0.88%).

So should Trump/GOP supporters be worried the numbers above? Maybe.

The Dems jumped ahead because the GOP In-Person voting dropped way off:

2016 FL Early Vote By Day 11_07

It is a little worrisome that the GOP vote share plummeted over the weekend, but it did the same thing last weekend. We will see if GOP is losing steam or the Democrats cannibalized their election day voters for Early Voting. Note that the Independent vote trended more like the Democrats. All In-Person voting dropped in Sunday (as did the Mail-In tallies given that the US Post Office is off Sunday).

The Florida POTUS race is down to what the Independents will do tomorrow. They represent 1,237,395 votes already (19.3% of the total). If Trump wins this group by 1%, he will garner 12,373 more votes in Early Voting – not enough to offset the Dem ballot lead (assuming the GOP and DEMs fight to a draw by their percentages). However, if Trump  is ahead 10% with Independents, that is 123,735 more votes and he will win.

To be honest, no one knows which way Florida will go. What I do know is the Dem ballot lead will shrink a bit by tomorrow, when the Mail-In tallies come back.  By how much, no one knows.

6 responses so far

Nov 06 2016

FL Early Voting 11_06_16: Dems Have Great Saturday, Does Not Move Overall Numbers

As usual, the source for this data is here.

The Democrats had a great Saturday, mostly because the GOP In-Person vote dropped off significantly, not due to a major shift in Dem performance. The good news for Trump is the Unaffiliated (Independent) voters maintained their pace, which helped keep the overall numbers locked in.

2016 FL Early Voting_11_06

As has been the case for nearly a week now, the GOP and Democrats are in a dead heat in terms of percentage of total ballots cast in early voting. The Democrats lead by 32,626 ballots submitted.  And while that is a big number, it is a tiny percentage of the 6,152,099 ballots cast. Here are the percentages of ballots cast by party:

  • GOP 39.1%
  • DEM 39.6%
  • Other 21.4%

BTW: any poll that deviates much from this actual voter turnout data in their internal turnout model is probably going to miss the mark in Florida.  Just saying.

Back in 2012, the breakout of voters by party (per this comment) was 35D-33R-33I. So what we see in 2016 is that Hillary Clinton is performing well below Obama’s 2012 benchmark. In addition, in 2012 the total number of early votes was 4.3 million. This year in Florida early vote total has hit 6.15 million – and is still climbing. That means the voter turnout in the early voting is up 43%!

How do pollsters model that kind of intensity – which is clearly across the board since the Dems are just barely keeping even?

Since the GOP is holding it close, unlike 2012 where the Dems had a 43-40% lead in early voting, that indicates their turnout is on par with everything the Democrats have done.  The cumulative effect of the GOP’s early lead means they can easily weather one bad day, which they did.

When we look at the day-by-day vote tallies, we see how the GOP ballots dropped off for In-Person voting on Saturday. I decided to add Independents (Unaffiliated) to see how they were doing, and they DID NOT drop off on Saturday. Dems and Indies were pretty much even Saturday and Friday.

2016 FL Early Vote By Day 11_06_v2

Today is the last day of In-Person voting. It would take a massive change in voter turnout today to move the bottom line numbers. The fact the Independents are showing some late breaking strength tells me Florida looks better for Trump than Hillary.

If tradition holds true, the GOP candidate will take the vote on election day. So without any significant buffer built up in the early voting, it is Hillary who has the hill to climb to victory.

7 responses so far

Nov 05 2016

FL Early Voting 11_05_16: Dems Squeak Out To Tiny Lead

The Democrats have finally overtaken the GOP in Florida with the final vote tallies. This was due to a strong showing Friday.

2016 FL Early Voting_11_05

Dems lead the GOP by 7,280 ballots. They lead the In-Person vote by 2.5% while the GOP leads the Mail-In vote by 2.9%.  The In-Person voters have outnumbered the Mail-In voters on a daily basis, but the Mail-In voting has been going on longer.  That is why it took nearly all the In-Person voting to date to erase the GOP lead in ballots – for now at least. We have Saturday and Sunday to finish out In-Person voting.

Bottom line – the early vote is a tie with 39.5% GOP, 39.6% DEM and 21.5% for the remaining categories. I will come back to this chart in a bit, but let’s look at the trend over the last two weeks first:

2016 FL Early Vote By Day 11_05

As we can see, the Democrats had a banner day Friday with In-Person voting, which is why they jumped out into the lead. But the GOP voters were not slouches either. They also upped their game and had a surge in In-Person. While I have not been tracking the Independents (No Party Affiliation), they have also kept up the pace as well.  Earlier this week the two remaining groups accounted for 19% of the total votes. Today it is 21.5%. So turnout is big, and across the board.

This is why the bottom line percentages are stable and likely to lock in.

So, is this good for Clinton or Trump?

Interestingly, AllahPundit over at Hot Air posted about Pennsylvania yesterday. In it he referenced this article about Florida:

Democrats like what they see, party executive director Scott Arceneaux told the Times/Herald. Democrats are outpacing Republicans in mail ballot requests for the first time and early voting is much higher than in 2012. The fact that African-American turnout has been slower than in 2008 or 2012 is not a major concern, he said, and the party will use black churches on Sunday to coordinate a massive get-out-the-vote effort known as Souls to the Polls.

Emphasis mine. OK, two things to note here. When this was written the Dems did not have the lead in overall ballots, they were behind by 1,833. So the only ray of sunshine in the first table above is the number of mail-in ballots requested.  But the real number to look at is mail-in ballots returned! The GOP has led that number, and they lead in the percentage of requested ballots returned (78-72%, 4th row in the table above).

We know the Democrat Machine requests mail-in ballots in large lots. So this not a feat or a significant indicator. The turnout is clear, the GOP mail-in voting is better than the Democrat.

The second highlight is an admission, because this is data is not public as far as I know. African American turnout is lower than 2012. Therefore I am not buying this person’s Democrat Happy Talk. The article makes one final point I have been making throughout this series of posts – Dems are not winning the Early Vote like they did in 2012:

Four days out four years ago, Democrats narrowly led Republicans in early and mail voting by 101,000 votes out of 3.2 million cast. Republicans did win in Election Day turnout, but President Barack Obama still won Florida by just under 1 percent.

So when Obama squeaked out his win in 2012, at this stage the Dems were ahead by 101,000 ballots out of 3.2 million cast (the 3.15% – the margin I noted in prior posts). Today the Dems lead by paltry 7,280 ballots out of 5,731,761 cast (0.13%). Obama would not have won Florida with the numbers we see today in 2016.

AllahPundit was using Florida as an example of tight races and turnout model errors. So lets go back to his post and dig a bit.

These same analysts will tell you, quite rightly, that once a candidate’s lead shrinks to three points or so, the risk that the polls will miss predicting the winner starts to get real. Polls of likely voters are based on turnout estimates across various key demographics; when the lead is down to three, even small mistakes in those estimates can overlook an upset brewing.

And this is why I disagree with the pollsters in Florida. What we have in that table up top is not a poll, but actual turnout data. It is not a model. It shows the GOP, Dems and remaining two groups in a unique configuration:

  • 39.5 GOP
  • 39.6 Dem
  • 21.4 The Rest

If Trump does lead in the Independents, then …

Well I will let some folks at RealClearPolitics explain:

Barack Obama won re-election largely because 5 to 6 percent more Democrats went to the polls in 2012 than Republicans, and because the president persuaded well over 90 percent of them to vote for him. Thus, even though Mitt Romney did very well among Republicans, he had to make up that 6 percent gap by drawing more Independents.

Well in Florida (and Colorado) the edge in party turnout is not happening.

The answer is that education levels are a more significant factor this year. Obama won a majority of those with a high school diploma (or less) in 2012, while Romney won college-educated voters. This year the numbers are reversed. Among white voters with only a high school education, Trump leads by over 25 points. Among whites with a college degree, Clinton leads by about 10 percent.

This is the first time since serious polling began in 1952 that this has happened. The traditional pattern of Democratic support among blue-collar workers this year follows the high-school-or-less pattern with white, blue-collar workers preferring Trump to Clinton. These unique combinations of less support for traditional party loyalties across education levels accounts for the narrow Clinton lead of four points in our latest poll. Another example, which makes the point, is that women with less education are voting for Trump while college-educated women are very strong for Clinton, which cuts into the gender gap and  makes Clinton’s lead among women slightly less than Obama’s was in the previous election.

The takeaway here is you cannot rely on party ID to predict votes. The primary predictor will be education level (a.k.a. economic status). Where Trump is winning is in the lesser educated (and much more numerous) element of the population who are struggling economically. It is this group which is likely surging to vote and pushing all party affiliation participation to new highs.

I can’t see Hillary being such a vote magnet. This is how Trump vanquished his traditional opponents in the primaries. By energizing those living below the “upper middle class” to play in the primaries, and by stealing a good number of the “upper middle class” themselves. If the general election turnout reminds me of anything, it is the primary turnout for Trump

Finally something about independents:

This leaves Independents, who almost by definition are more susceptible to alterations in the political environment. Trump has made some progress since the last poll, going from nine points ahead of Clinton to 11 points. Partly, this is because the number of voters saying they were undecided or voting for third party candidates has been cut in half. By Election Day, their ranks will be thinned even further.

If Hillary has indeed lost Les Deplorables across all parties and Independents, she is not going to win next week. In fact, it would be a very, very good night for Trump if this is true. If you are a Hillary supporter, all you have to hold onto is trust in the turnout models.

4 responses so far

Nov 04 2016

The Blue Is Draining Out Of The Electoral Map!

Published by under 2016 Elections

I am so close to predicting a landslide for Trump ….

but it will have to wait the weekend to see if the current trends hold up and the dam has broken.

The big news on Drudge today is a tied race in Michigan:

The Michigan statewide poll revealed Trump is now dead even with Clinton, in a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Trump and Clinton both received 44 percent support from respondents in a poll conducted Nov. 3, which was obtained by The Daily Caller News Foundation. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 4 percent support, while Green party nominee Jill Stein received 3 percent. One percent of the respondents said that they were supporting someone else, and five percent said they were still undecided.

I took a glance at the RCP electoral map this morning and could not help but notice how little blue there is in it! By the time I snapped an image of it Michigan had lost its light blue coloring.

Electorial Map 11_04_16

Of course, there is a lot of gray “toss-up” out there still.  But two states I have been watching (FL and CO) in terms of early voting ballots seem to show the polls are tilted a bit towards Clinton and these are not toss ups. Probably because those notoriously complicated turnout models are out of sync with what is happening on the ground. See here for my latest on Florida, and see here for my latest on Colorado.

Stay tune. If the dam has broken we will know by Monday.

4 responses so far

Nov 04 2016

Colorado Early Voting 11_04_16: Dem Voter Turnout Dropping

The source of this data his here.

As we go into the final weekend before election day, we have some very interesting numbers in the Colorado Early Voting tallies. The Dems had jumped out to a big lead as a percentage of votes cast in the beginning. But they have been slowly dropping off as both GOP and “Other” voters ramp up. Note: The “Other” voters are dominated by Independents (a.k.a Unaffiliated).

In Colorado the registration by party this year stands at:

  • 32% Dem
  • 32% GOP
  • 36% Other (of which 34.5% are Independents, the rest 3rd Party)

With that as background, lets look at how the turnout is actually doing. The first chart shows the cumulative number of votes by party: (Note: Colorado does not report results over the weekend, so Excel added the days “29-Oct” and “30-Oct” to the graphs and interpolated the lines to bridge the weekend – which is why they run flat during that period).

CO Early Vote By Party 11_04

As of yesterday, the Dems have a razor thin edge of 14,181 more votes cast than the GOP. But this is out of over a million votes total, so when we translated this into percentage of the total vote it is a statistical tie:

  • 35.7% Dem
  • 35.3% GOP
  • 29.0% Other

Notice that the Dems and GOP are performing well above their registration percentages. That indicates there is no ground game edge for Clinton over Trump. The Indies are the ones who are under peforming their registration numbers – so far.

But what really is interesting is the trend since Oct 27th, when I started tracking the results (early voting in Colorado began on Oct 24th):

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_04

Notice how both the GOP and “Other” voters are slowly but steadily gaining ground as a percentage of the overall vote. The GOP has gone from 34.7% in the beginning to 35.3% as of yesterday.  A very consistent pace throughout.

But the Dems have been losing ground pretty much the whole time. They started with a 39.3% of the total votes, but this has dwindled down to 35.7% today. And looks like they will continue to drop through until election day.

The “Other” voters have actually seen the greatest increase in votes cast, going from 25.1% back on Oct 27th to 29% today. This is the group that may surge forward at the end here.

If Trump leads among independents, he will win Colorado.

These results are being reported today (in fact 3 hours prior to me writing this post):

The early-voting lead for Colorado Democrats has all-but disappeared just four days before Election Day.

Registered Republicans again Thursday narrowed the gap between the number of ballots they have submitted so far and the number of votes submitted by Democrats.

4 responses so far

Nov 04 2016

FL Early Voting 11_04_16: All Tied Up!

Published by under 2016 Elections

The source for this data is here

There are only 3 days of In-Person early voting left in Florida (ends Nov 6th). The In-Person voting surpassed the longer running Mail-In voting in terms of total votes 2 days ago, on November 2nd. Today, heading into the home stretch, the number of GOP ballots submitted and the number of Democrat ballots submitted are statistically the same at 39.7% of the total votes cast for each party. The GOP has a razor thin edge of 1,833 ballots as of yesterday.

2016 FL Early Voting_11_04

The GOP will likely end up leading the Mail-In Voting (2nd row), the Democrats may end up leading the In-Person voting. I caveat the last prediction because we have no idea how many In-Person votes are still out there. But we do know 70.5% of the requested Mail-In ballots have been returned.

The tightening up of the race is due more to a drop off in GOP In-Person voting, as the graph below shows:

2016 FL Early Vote By Day 11_04

If the GOP voters come out more in these last 3 days, it will help keep the tie in early voting between the parties. This actually happened over the last weekend.

I really do not see any significant changes coming though.  I looked at the averages for the GOP and DEMs over the last 4 days, and the average daily difference 1,676 for the Dems. If I assume the weekend voting is as high as the last 4 days (unrealistic) the Dems will have gained a whole 5,028 votes more than the GOP by the time In-Person voting ends.

The total votes cast as of today is 5,267,750, so a swing of 5,000 votes will not move the bottom line.

What does this mean? It means Florida could be close if it where up to the GOP and DEMs and early voting. But 20% of the total early votes are from Independent and 3rd party voters. If Trump holds his lead with Independents, he wins Florida.

And we saw this in 2012 when Dems won the early vote tally by 43-40%. That extra edge allowed Obama to eek out a very tiny win. Here are the early voting numbers by party ID and the final tally from 2012:

Early Votes: 4.3 million

Democrats: 43%

Republicans: 40%

That edge in early voting no doubt helped push Obama over the top in Florida to beat Romney:

                                      President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 8.jpg
Popular vote       4,237,756   4,163,447
Percentage        50.01%   49.13%

Three things:

  • The early vote total is way up over 2012 (4.3 million to 5.3 million – and counting).
  • Back in 2012 the two main parties accounted for 83% of the early vote total. They are down to 80% this year.
  • The Early Vote in 2012 was ~5% of the total vote (4.3 million to 8.3+ million total).

The GOP is outperforming their 2012 levels, as are the Independents. The Democrats are voting in what appear to be larger numbers than 2012, but they have lost ground as a percent of the total votes.

I do not see a reasonable path for Hillary to win FL assuming the race is tied as polls show.

Of course, if the race is not tied, and there is some hidden energy out there for Trump or Clinton, this will not be even close. Next update will be on Monday to recap where we are when the In-Person voting ends.

One response so far

Nov 03 2016

Colorado Early Voting Shows Democrat Drop-Off 11_03_16

The source of this data is here

It is a total coincidence that I decided to unveil another Early Voting metric in a battleground state the same day a new poll comes out in that state showing the same trend:

KUSA – The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is tied in Colorado.

That’s according to a poll released Wednesday by the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion and conducted by 9NEWS political analyst and local pollster Floyd Ciruli.

Clinton edges out Trump 42 to 41 percent in a two-way race, but it’s tied at 39 percent when you add in the Libertarian and Green Party candidates.

This is completely consistent with what the early voting statistics show us about party ballots submitted. The data is from October 27th – November 3rd. It shows a big drop off in Democrat early voting over time.  But before we get to that, let’s look at the cumulative vote by party as reported by Colorado State:

CO Early Vote By Pary 11_03

Note that from this perspective Colorado looks to be competitive between the two major parties. But that is an illusion. This is because as – as of today – the Democrats are ahead by a meager 14,181 votes, out of 1,406,573 cast. When we look at each party’s percent of the total votes, a very different picture arises:

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_03

Note that combined the two parties represent about 72-73% of the votes submitted. The remainder is dominated by “unaffiliated” voters – independents. So setting those independents aside, let’s just focus on how the two parties are doing as a percent of the total votes cast.

As can be seen the trend for each party is dramatically different.  The GOP percentage of the total early votes in Colorado is steady at about 35%. But the democrats  are losing ground, and quickly. Early on they dominated the GOP, but now they clearly are fading.

So it would seem that the GOP voters are more determined and consistent in their voting.

If this continues Clinton’s hope of winning Colorado will also fade away.

FYI – the flat area of the line from 10/28 – 10/30 is due to the fact Colorado did not report over the weekend, so Excel interpolated between the Friday and Monday reports.

Also, according to registration numbers at the same site, the break down of the voters in Colorado for 2016 are 32% Dem, 32% Rep and 34.5% Independent. the remaining ~1.5% registered as 3rd party voters.

 

3 responses so far

Nov 03 2016

Thanks To The Clintons, We Have Achieved A Full Blow Constitutional Crisis

Make no mistake about it, the news Bret Baier broke last night is very, very serious:

The Clinton Foundation investigation is a, quote, “very high priority.” Agents have interviewed and reinterviewed multiple people about the Foundation case, and even before the WikiLeaks dumps, agents say they have collected a great deal of evidence. Pressed on that, one sources said, quote, “a lot of it,” and “there is an avalanche of new information coming every day.”

Some of it from WikiLeaks, some of it from new emails. The agents are actively and aggressively pursuing this case. They will be going back to interview the same people again, some for the third time.

As a result of the limited immunity deals to top aides, including Cheryl Mills and Heather Samuelson, the Justice Department had tentatively agreed that the FBI would destroy those laptops after a narrow review. We are told definitively that has not happened. Those devices are currently in the FBI field office here in Washington, D.C. and are being exploited.

The source points out that any immunity deal is null and void if any subject lied at any point in the investigation.

Meantime, the classified e-mail investigation is being run by the National Security division of the FBI. They are currently combing through former Democratic Congressman Anthony Wiener’s laptop and have found e-mails that they believe came from Hillary Clinton’s server that appear to be new, as in not duplicates.

Emphasis mine. The summary of this is likely indictments.

A truly pathetic response from the Political Industrial Complex was by Post reporter Charles Lane – who complained this information was from FBI leaks. As Chris Plante noted on his radio show this morning, this clown is no Woodward or Bernstein. He is simply upset his candidate is losing. So he is not even a honorable loser when democracy does not go his way. If this is how Hillary’s supporters react, the voters will revolt.

But I digress. Ignore the gnashing of partisan hacks in the media and elsewhere. We have achieved full constitutional crisis. Hillary Clinton, Democrat candidate for POTUS, and her husband and former POTUS, are now under criminal investigation with indictments very, very likely.

Who in this country wants their new President-elect and a former President under indictment come January 2017 when the new president is supposed to be sworn in?

Who in this country wants to have Nixon to the second power, with two members of our elite POTUS club spending their time and energy fighting off the FBI and using a politicized Department of Justice (and IRS) to try and hold onto power?

Who in this country wants 4 years where nothing is done for We The People, and every avenue of government is focused on protecting The Clinton Foundation and pay-for-play??

All Democrat leaders need to check their souls and figure out why they should not just throw in the towel now, and save the nation from years of strife. Nixon stood down to avoid the constitutional crisis he created. Bill Clinton did not, and went on to set up a scheme to bypass illegal donations and funds using the facade of a “charity”.

Democrats be warned. The existence of your party stands on what you do next.

Are you really going to “Be With Her”?

 

One response so far

Nov 03 2016

Where We Stand With The General Election Nov 11, 2016

I had stopped looking at the General Election polls back on October 24th. Mainly because there were so many and also because I ran out of cycles because of a delivery on my day job.

But let’s check back in and see where things stand – just a snapshot of the average support for Clinton and Trump, across all the 2-way and 4-way races:

POTUS RCP 11_03

These polls produce the following average support for the candidates

  • HRC averaging 45.83%
  • Trump averaging 45.00%
  • Difference 0.83% (Clinton)

What we have – no big surprise – is a tie.  There is no Clinton lead, and there has not been one for weeks. Back on October 24th this is what I computed:

  • HRC averaging 42.25%
  • Trump averaging 42.50%
  • Difference 0.25% (Trump)

The “statistical” Margin of Error for these polls is around +/- 3%. The voter turnout model Margin of Error is more like +/- 5% (my own scientifically based WAG). So this is a tie, which actually is bad news for the quasi-incumbent Clinton (who is facing withering bad news this week).

So it all comes down to turnout and energy for the candidate. Guess we all know where that factor points to:

Democratic VP candidate Tim Kaine is holding a rally today at 12:30 PM at Loras College in Dubuque, Iowa.

About 15 people lined up to see Kaine in Iowa.

 

 

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