Nov 19 2016

The Current Political Turmoil In USA Looks So “Hunger Games”



Washington DC in a Bubble


This has been an incredible election cycle. Historic in its impacts, historic in how badly the political elite missed what was happening, historic in how poorly the losers are dealing with their loss.

There have been a smattering of intelligent commentary among the sea of outlandish accusations and charges (I noted some in a previous post). But most of the reaction to President-Elect Trump on the left has become so stupid that young ladies who support Trump are  now being called “misogynists” by hysterical Clinton supporters (first hand experience on this account). This is so stupid it burns:

Misogyny is the hatred of, contempt for, or prejudice against women or girls.

Worse, the violent reactions by those who once held signs that claimed “Love Trumps Hates” signals how out of touch the liberal base is with not just reality, but their own mental limitations (sorry, there is no burying the hatchet with thugs and bullies – just criminal charges and jail time). Violence is the answer to those who have no argument, no rationale basis upon which to stand.

The reaction to Trump’s election by the left has been so irrational that the they look more like mind controlled robots than anything representing an evolved, independently-thinking human being. It is becoming pathetic, and these fools don’t seem to recall this did not work on Trump or his supporters through the primaries or the general election. How it is supposed to work now is beyond me.

The way the Political Industrial Complex (PIC) continues to lash out at the majority of the country (not to be mistaken with the majority of the voters – which will arrive in 2020) who do not agree with their elitist views brings us to ponder what could drive such madness? To think the answer to rejection is to attack those whose very support is required to regain political influence is madness.

Or cult-like brainwashing.

For context, the PIC encompasses all those elites whose livelihoods are predicated on central-control of resources and who determine who is allowed to succeed in society. It is a bipartisan exclusive club. It includes the Politicians and their career staffers. It includes crony donors and lobbyists who reap government windfalls and special treatment that average citizens cannot obtain. It includes the PIC industrial base of pollsters, consultants, etc. And it includes the pliant news media, whose success rest on access to those in power, and in return for access making sure no bad news will disrupt said power.

As this article notes, the denizens of the PIC now only retain control in the last bastions of Democrat led states along the coasts:

Republican America is now so vast that a traveler could drive 3,600 miles across the continent, from Key West, Fla., to the Canadian border crossing at Porthill, Idaho, without ever leaving a state under total GOP control.

After last week’s election, Democrats hold the governor’s office and both legislative chambers in just six states—all of them on the Atlantic or Pacific oceans—compared with 25 for Republicans.

Democratic losses have come at all levels of government since Mr. Obama took office and his party controlled Congress. In Washington, it has been relegated to minority status with at least 60 fewer seats in the House and 12 fewer in the Senate.

The casualties have been worse in state capitols. Before the 2010 elections, 54.5% of all state legislators were Democrats, giving the party majorities in 60 of 99 chambers. Democrats controlled both legislative chambers and held the governor’s office in 17 states.

Now, the party has majorities in just 31 of 99 legislative chambers, having lost 958 seats since Mr. Obama took office. Just 43% of elected state lawmakers will be Democrats when the new state legislatures are sworn in.

The denizens of the PIC have completely isolated themselves in their little bubble of the top 5% earners and power brokers. They poll each other, consult each other, interview each other and have become completely disconnected from the rest of the country. The disassociation with the reality of the remaining 95% of the country (where all the PIC’s brilliantly stupid ideas play out) was not missed by the voters.

It was not America that lost its way, it was most of the leaders of this country, both economic and political. Note, there were plenty who did not fall into the PIC bubble, but enough did that the voters were forced to go to a total outsider to make the needed course correction.

This article I think best reflects the Trump voters and how they arrived to support real change over another round of false, political promises:

I am one of an endangered species called the American middle class. An aging baby boomer — one of the last generation, it seems, who inherited a future brighter than his parents. I grew up in manufacturing in the Rust Belt, and embraced the application of new technologies for innovation. My career spans more than four decades at companies like John Deere and Boeing and Emerson Electric. I have worked in many jobs from laborer to vice president of operations. I’ve lived and worked all over the world.

This  personal background reflects a larger-than-known number of Trump voters. My wife and I fall into this category as well; high tech, highly educated, upper middle class and fed up with PIC’s unique mix of arrogance and ignorance.

My best example of this kind of over reach by the very rich is the owner of the Redskins, who made a ton of money in the 1990’s and decided to buy the DC football franchise, which had been highly successful up until he took over. His brilliance in high tech conveyed no insight into running a professional football team, which he pretty much ran into the ground.

Anyway, back to the real world:

Since Ronald Reagan, I have not seen a politician deliver on their promises to the American people; not Democrats and not Republicans. George H.W. Bush told us to read his lips, there would be no new taxes; but of course there were. President Obama promised that if you like your health-care plan and doctor, you can keep your health-care plan and doctor, and your costs will go down. We couldn’t, and they didn’t. He and his surrogates, including Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) here in Missouri, promised back in 2012 that there would be huge infrastructure projects, producing thousands of “shovel-ready jobs.”  They never materialized. Hillary Clinton said the events in Benghazi were caused by a video. They weren’t. She also promised that she’d never handled any classified material on her private server, though she had.

The old adage “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me” comes to mind. And it did so to this reluctant Trump voter:

Election cycle after election cycle, we sent politicians to Washington to fix these things, and cycle after cycle they failed us. In fact, they betrayed us.

But you, the pollsters and the incredibly biased “mainstream” media, wouldn’t listen to me. You have been too busy promoting your own poisonous agenda. You did everything you could to brand conservatives as homophobic, xenophobic, greedy racists. You focused on spurious issues like genderless bathrooms and celebrity sex changes. You rebranded “pro-abortion” as “pro-choice.” You rebranded radical Islamic terrorism as “workplace violence.” You have continued your Machiavellian spinning of information and public perception, purposely drowning the voices of reason in your wake, year after excruciating year.

You fail to understand this because you are listening exclusively to America’s worst critics; people who believe only in tearing down the traditions, perspectives and governmental foundations that made us great. You were trained up by liberal professors, most of whom have seen little of the world outside their classrooms. And now, you scratch your heads, wondering how you could have been so clueless. You spend endless television and radio hours interviewing not the typical Americans like me, but one another — asking what happened.

How would the person seated next to you in a New York City television studio know?

Main Street USA has better insight and understanding on what is going on in this country than a majority of the PIC and their brutal followers.

Which had some of us realizing we had seen this plot before. Where the ruling class is hold up in their isolated enclaves of pampered inanity, the denizens of which fill their days with endless galas and award shows jammed with “participation” trophies. Placated by echo-chamber interviews and the promise to get out into the hinterlands to see how the others live, these enclaves insulate the well-off from the burdens and trials of those who provide the luxuries these people consume.

The analogy did not take long to become crystal clear:

The Hunger Games trilogy takes place in an unspecified future time, in the dystopian, post-apocalyptic nation of Panem, located in North America.[7] The country consists of a wealthy Capitol city, located in the Rocky Mountains,[8] surrounded by twelve (originally thirteen) poorer districts ruled by the Capitol. The Capitol is lavishly rich and technologically advanced, but the districts are in varying states of poverty.

Collins also cites as a classical inspiration the Roman gladiator games. She feels three key elements create a good game: an all powerful and ruthless government, people forced to fight to the death, and the game’s role as a source of popular entertainment.[10]

A contemporary source of inspiration was Collins’ recent fascination with reality television programs. She says they are like The Hunger Games because the Games are not just entertainment but also a reminder to the districts of their rebellion. On a tired night, Collins says that while she was channel-surfing the television, she saw people competing for some prize and then saw footage of the Iraq war. She described how the two combined in an “unsettling way” to create her first ideas for the series.[11]

Now, you may think this is a bit of a stretch, but reality sometimes lines up with fantasy – possibly as a clear warning that we do not want to actually create the world of say Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four or Bradbury’s Fahrenheit-451.

It dawned on me the analogy to the political elites’ reaction to Trump – in both parties and the media – was reflected by the scorched-Earth reaction by the Capitol City to the Districts of Panem becoming independent thinkers.

And then I saw it all so clear – on Morning Joe.

The prime guest was Micheal Moore describing his insights on how Trump won and how the signs were there from early on he would win.. The counter argument was provided by one Anand Giridharadas, an MSNBC commentator from one of the PIC coastal enclaves.

You just cannot make these things up. First Anand Giridharadas.

Second, Panem character Ceaser Flickerman

Separated at birth?

Here is the interview on Morning Joe. Listen how Anand complains Americans outside the PIC enclaves are not “curious” about the denizens of the PIC and their challenges (actually, he notes the challenges of those workers serving the leaders of the PIC – not the PIC themselves). The parallels are just amazing – and scary. We may have just dodged a terminal bullet to our democracy and our country this election cycle.

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Nov 15 2016

My Thoughts Post-Election View Summed Up In A Cartoon

Published by under All General Discussions

The post-election, hysteria-killing, says-it-all cartoon:

Hat Tip Powerline Blog

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Nov 10 2016

A Few Understand What Just Happened

If you did not see the Trump win coming, then you probably need to recognize your world view is a bit out off kilter I say this for those who want to rejoin the real America, which is not a racist or misogynist place – any more than Trump is racist or misogynist

If you fell for the Political News Medias caricature of Donald Trump, put out there to try and convince they voters they were wrong and that the Political Industrial Complex* knows better, then you really need to stop a second and decide if you really want to be the tool of these elites. That meme was placed out there to fool people.

Do you want to live your life being their useful idiot?

Anyone can make a mistake or be fooled by the news media and politicians. Heck, I fell for every fictional claim about Ronald Reagan as I prepared to vote for the first time in a Presidential election. I bought the Democrat’s BS hook, line and sinker. Back then all of my family were Democrats. So I voted for Carter and, when he lost, awaited the end of the world.

But then I watch Ronald Reagan govern for 8 years, and bring this country back up to its greatness. And I realized I had been the tool of the Democrat propaganda machine.

I never, ever belonged to a political party again. I support issues and policies, but I do my own research. I never take anything a politician says at face value. The more I support a politician (say George W Bush), the more I have to cross check and be skeptical – just to make sure my feelings don’t mess with my knowledge.

As for the news media – I am the proverbial rocket scientist (except I don’t work on the rocket end of things, more the command, control and communications end). I can tell you the news media barely grass what they report on. Their smug ignorance is legend. Needless to say, they hold little value to me except as insight into the power plays in government. Something I also see every day.

So I may sound harsh, but if you want to know what is going on in this world you CANNOT listen to those nattering nabobs on TV as your source of information and knowledge.

Anyway, there are a few who are getting what happened this week. They are communicating their insights out so as to help and warn people who did not see this coming.

But first, a little self pat-on-the-back. Nate Silver is out addressing how his personal desires may have caused him to claim too much confidence in a Clinton win. An objective eye would have been warning everyone there is no clear indicator in the polls. Silver mentioned this caveat as an aside, but really should have driven it home as his core finding – Too Close To Call.

Anyway, I want to borrow his map of the likely 2016 Electoral College to compare it to my own predictions – which were much better than Silver’s (we rocket folks also use sophisticated math, models and statistics). Here is where things should end up once the final states are called:

And here is my map I put out the morning of the election:

AJStrata_Election_MapAJStrata’s Election Prediction

Not too bad, if I may say so myself.

But to put the ego-patting aside, I think I have earned some credibility in terms of clarity of insight regarding this nation at this pivotal time. From my little perch just outside the DC beltway, in the belly of the beast, I found the following postmortem’s to be most clear-eyed. Watch or read these in their entirety. It is worth the extra time.

First, this from Slate:

The Democratic Party establishment has beclowned itself and is finished.

The party establishment made a grievous mistake rallying around Hillary Clinton. It wasn’t just a lack of recent political seasoning. She was a bad candidate, with no message beyond heckling the opposite sideline. She was a total misfit for both the politics of 2016 and the energy of the Democratic Party as currently constituted. She could not escape her baggage, and she must own that failure herself.

Theoretically smart people in the Democratic Party should have known that. And yet they worked giddily to clear the field for her. Every power-hungry young Democrat fresh out of law school, every rising lawmaker, every old friend of the Clintons wanted a piece of the action. This was their ride up the power chain. The whole edifice was hollow, built atop the same unearned sense of inevitability that surrounded Clinton in 2008, and it collapsed, just as it collapsed in 2008, only a little later in the calendar. The voters of the party got taken for a ride by the people who controlled it, the ones who promised they had everything figured out and sneeringly dismissed anyone who suggested otherwise. They promised that Hillary Clinton had a lock on the Electoral College. These people didn’t know what they were talking about, and too many of us in the media thought they did.

This is a grueling but necessarily treatise on how the Political Elite played God and got burned. The essence here is wake up and fix the Democrat Party.

And here is another good assessment:

The mood in the Washington press corps is bleak, and deservedly so.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that, with a few exceptions, we were all tacitly or explicitly #WithHer, which has led to a certain anguish in the face of Donald Trump’s victory. More than that and more importantly, we also missed the story, after having spent months mocking the people who had a better sense of what was going on.

This is all symptomatic of modern journalism’s great moral and intellectual failing: its unbearable smugness. Had Hillary Clinton won, there’s be a winking “we did it” feeling in the press, a sense that we were brave and called Trump a liar and saved the republic.

So much for that. The audience for our glib analysis and contempt for much of the electorate, it turned out, was rather limited. This was particularly true when it came to voters, the ones who turned out by the millions to deliver not only a rebuke to the political system but also the people who cover it. Trump knew what he was doing when he invited his crowds to jeer and hiss the reporters covering him. They hate us, and have for some time.

And can you blame them? Journalists love mocking Trump supporters. We insult their appearances. We dismiss them as racists and sexists. We emote on Twitter about how this or that comment or policy makes us feel one way or the other, and yet we reject their feelings as invalid.

Understand something, the caricature of Trump and his supporters is all fiction! It was the wallpaper inside the bubble of the elites that kept them from having to face the fact they are being rejected by the people of this country.

It is not racist to want to control our borders and stem the influx – for a period – of people from other lands. It is not racist to note that Islam has a violent element willing to kill innocents at any time and any place. Just like one bad cop can give all cops a bad rap, so can a handful of bloody insane Muslims. It is not racist or nativist to deport immigrants who have committed serious felonies.

The media over stated the drivers behind  these views to propel their candidate to victory. They were not reporting facts.

The last good perspective was from the Morning Joe show:

If you are willing to have an open mind and want to reconnect with the America that just elected Donald Trump, you can start with these.

* The Political Industrial Complex encompasses all those elites whose livelihoods are predicated on central-control of resources and who determine who is allowed to succeed in society. It is a bipartisan exclusive club. It includes the Politicians and their career staffers. It includes crony donors and lobbyists who reap government windfalls and special treatment that average citizens cannot obtain. It includes the PIC industrial base of pollsters, consultants, etc. And it includes the pliant news media, whose success rest on access to those in power, and in return for access making sure no bad news will disrupt said power.

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Nov 09 2016

Those “Fictional” Stealth Trump Voters – They Do Exist!

Turnout models – the bane of the polling industry! Sort of like climate models, lots of supposition and wish-casting, but when placed against reality they fall apart.

The reason the pollsters got it wrong this election cycle is they cannot see outside the frame of the Political Industrial Complex (PIC)*.

Heaven help us if they could every figure that out!

My guess is the true impact of yesterday will take a year or so to sink into the denizens of the PIC. Here is one example why:

Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night.

Trump had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims – dismissed and mocked by the experts – turned out to be true.

White working class voters — the silent majority that Trump said was being underestimated by pollsters — swarmed for him on Election Day, particularly in the Rust Belt states, and helped him beat the polls.

Clinton could not turn out women, or the Obama coalition of minorities and young voters, in the same numbers to keep pace.

Pollster John Zogby believes that many in the industry weighted their polls too heavily in favor of Democrats, pointing to polls that had an 8 to 9 point advantage for the party, when it should have been in the 4 to 5 point range, he said.

It’s a claim that Trump made throughout the process.

But pollsters largely dismissed that notion, saying that Democrats turn out in larger numbers in a presidential election year and that Republicans were losing registered voters, who were increasingly identifying as independents.

That assumption will have to be reexamined.

Captain Obvious on that last sentence. Let’s see how long they need to ponder this one!

The data on what was happening was there for anyone to see. I tracked Florida for weeks and saw the massive uptick in energy across the board – which was not the Clinton Get-Out-The-Vote machine. The wave was clearly visible, the pundits just ignored it.

The problem is the elites refuse to understand the damage their idiotic policies created on Main Street, mainly because they refuse to live on Main Street. The denizens of the PIC live in isolation, only interacting with themselves, unwilling to look beyond their gated communities, their parties, their media events and all their other side shows. They just pat each other on the back and do stints on TV with their pals in the news media.

I feel no sorrow for them. The are wealthy and will remain wealthy. They just need to go find a hobby or something, since running the government for We The People is just not in their wheel house.

* The Political Industrial Complex encompasses all those elites whose livelihoods are predicated on central-control of resources and who determine who is allowed to succeed in society. It is a bipartisan exclusive club. It includes the Politicians and their career staffers. It includes crony donors and lobbyists who reap government windfalls and special treatment that average citizens cannot obtain. It includes the PIC industrial base of pollsters, consultants, etc. And it includes the pliant news media, whose success rest on access to those in power, and in return for access making sure no bad news will disrupt said power.

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Nov 09 2016

A New Day Dawns In America

It is a fresh new day in America, thanks to Les Deplorables.

President-elect Trump is planning his transition to take over from the Lame Duck Golfer-in-Chief.

The Clintons are driving off into the annals of history – and at least one FBI investigation into their illegally gotten gains using access to the State Department to line their pockets.

The News Media is going to fix their ethical shortcomings or go bankrupt. The 4th estate is either independent from the halls of power or it needs to be shut down. BTW: don’t let those snobs in the news media make you think the uprising we saw yesterday was driven by a lack of education. I know a lot of smart people without college degrees, and a lot of idiots with multiple degrees. The fact is, Trump has plenty of college educated supporters and very wise people without degrees backing him.

I tweeted out my New Year’s resolution last night as I began to see Political Industrial Complex (PIC) begin to lose the election.  I decided to list my resolutions as hash tags:

#NeverBillCrystal, #NotGeorgeWill, #NoMoreBushes, #NoKasich, #CUKrauthammer, #MegynWho, #LaterPaulRyan-Much, #ChangeDC4Good

But getting back to serious topics, it is imperative we help those who are in dire straits now – which means fixing Obamacare. Health insurance has become a luxury-priced item, competing with the mortgage. And the deductibles are competing with family vacations. One serious, but short, illness and a family can be financially strapped for months.

The fix is simple and can be done quickly:

  • Retain the directive for covering children until age 26 (especially until we get out of the Obama economic hole)
  • Retain the directive that preexisting conditions cannot be used to deny coverage
  • Remove the requirement for one-size-fits-all plans and let insurance companies go back to tailoring plans to the individual and families.
  • Let insurance companies compete across the United States (so high density areas can help fund infrastructure in our low density regions, and make care more accessible there).
  • Eliminate the exchanges and all the government bureaucracies, and create a private-public funded reserve for people with serious medical conditions who are not in the upper economic echelons (say are not in the top 5%). This reserve will be used for premium and deductible relief for those individuals with expensive preexisting conditions, thus making health care affordable to them directly.
  • Let the market do its thing – let the insurance companies compete
  • Let insurance companies propose massive reductions in reporting to the government – reporting that has been clearly a waste of time and taxpayer money. This should relieve some costs on the insurance companies
  • Cap insurance prices for 2 years: do not allow premiums and deductibles to go beyond the Obamacare Silver plan levels from early this year – before the ridiculous hikes that are now going into effect. There will be no price gouging.

If President Trump can get his GOP Congress to pass these changes, health care will become affordable again – and that is the most critical issue the people face right now. We can deal with dismantling the useless pieces of government over time, but health care costs are a real problem right now.

One final note – my prediction map (below) was pretty close this time!

AJStrata_Election_MapAJStrata’s Election Prediction


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Nov 08 2016

The Unknown Election – Live Blogging

Published by under All General Discussions

7:32 PM Eastern: I have to point out if Trump is crushing in WV and IN and KY, he will pull out OH and PA.  There is a correlation in terms of the fact a 20% margin in a red state will be a 5% margin in a purple state.  We will see who has the turnout, but I like what I see so far.

7:19 PM Eastern: This is amazing.  As of now three states too close to call: GA, SC and VA.  I am from VA, I am from Northern Virginia (NoVa). I can tell you Hillary may be shocked in NoVA. Most of us work for the Federal Government as civil servants or contractors.  All of us must abide by laws for controlling and protecting sensitive and classified data.

I was expecting VA to fall early. Now there is hope

I know for a fact Clinton probably pissed off a good chunk of her normal supporters in the government industrial complex. Anecdotally, those bound by the rules Clinton violated are gong to give her the big finger in the ballot box here in VA. Which is why they I am curious how the vote will pan out.

For Trump, this is a good start. Hillary cannot put away VA. The outsider is battling the insider and all Clinton has right now is Vermont.

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Nov 08 2016

The Left’s Pathetic “Ground Game” Grasping

Update: This is how you fool the dupes – just dangle some graphs in front of them which ignore the 62% of the voters and focus in on 9% contacted (but are the Clinton votes?) to find redemption!

Note they failed to mention that 62% who got out on their own on … Hot Air??? Aptly named I guess – end update

This is just sad.  The liberal media is touting a Clinton Ground game edge because a smaller fraction of people were contacted by the Trump campaign than the small fraction contacted by Hillary Campaign:

… more than twice as many voters said they were contacted by Clinton’s campaign (17 percent) than Trump’s (8 percent). Another 9 percent said they were contacted by both campaigns

17 vs 8%!  Did you know twice small is still small?

What everyone is missing is that most voters came out ON THEIR OWN ACCORD:

While most voters (62 percent) said they were not contacted by either presidential campaign, …

Yep, if you just skip over the first half of the sentence you find Nirvana.

The fact is turnout is historic and across the board and was NOT due to Hillary’s ground game!


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Nov 08 2016

Is Democrat Turnout Cratering?

Published by under 2016 Elections

Is the Democrat turnout fading? I ask this because I now see three big signs this may be happening. The first is an update this morning from Colorado on the early voting there (Source of this data is here):

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_08

There is a clear drop off in Democrat voting, along with a clear uptick in Independents.

As I posted this morning, CNN discovered the exact same trends in North Carolina:


Same steady GOP turnout, same fading Democrat turnout, and the same surge in independent turnout.

Update: The following Reuters Poll is NO LONGER available through Nov 7th. It seems to have been pulled down and now ends Nov 3rd (where Clinton still held a lead). More Shenanigans from Clinton Media arm – end update

Then this showed up at Gateway Pundit (H/T Gateway Pundit)


(Click to enlarge)

Hillary’s support is nose diving, just like the turnout data from Colorado and North Carolina.

This cannot just be coincidence. If the Democrats did fade out the last few days of early voting, why would they not continue to fade on election day?

I can personally report the guy handing out Democrat sample ballots looked bored and alone in our NoVa polling place. Normally we are pretty tied in terms of candidate support. As of 1 PM, our precinct was already approaching 40% of the registered voters. We get our big voter push in the evenings after work. But I think the Dems are just not out (yet).

If the Dems do stay home, the results would be historic.


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Nov 08 2016

AJStrata’s Prediction for 2016 Election – Brexit In America?

Let’s just say up front I have no clear indication which way this election will go today.  We are in uncharted waters in terms of energy of the candidate’s supporters, the intimidation and violence, the candidates themselves and their baggage and if course turnout models. The polls have such huge error bars on them I suggest we start with ignoring them and enjoy the ride. Some will get it right, some won’t.

But let’s step back once more and look at the Brexit vote in the UK earlier this year. It was a vote that pitted the globalist elites against the working class who suffered extreme economic hardship at the hands of the elitists’ policies and their desire for personal wealth.

It was a grass roots uprising which tore apart the political alliances that had held sway for decades. Instead of left-right-middle, it was the upper 20% vs the lower 80%. And when that happens the results can be shocking.

To remind folks, on the day of the Brexit vote it was very bleak for the “leave” side (from one of my posts at the time):

The paper ballots were still being counted by hand. Only the British overseas territory of Gibraltar had reported final results. Yet the assumption of a Remain victory filled the room—and depressed my hosts. One important journalist had received a detailed briefing earlier that evening of the results of the government’s exit polling: 57 percent for Remain.

It looked so bleak that Nigel Farage, Brexit champion and UKIP leader, conceded they had lost when they polls closed – only to find out later they had won!

Bitter Nigel Farage has blamed Britain’s youth for his Brexit ‘defeat’ – saying the 48-hour extension of the registration deadline probably ‘tipped the balance’.

Speaking at tonight’s Leave.EU party after polls closed in the EU referendum, the stony-faced UKIP leader stepped back from his earlier almost-concession, where he said “Remain will edge it” an hour previously.

But the Ukip leader also admitted he’s probably lost.

I do not blame those in the political class for not being able to see outside their limited experience base. But no one on Brexit voting day understood there was a movement crashing down, one that rocked the foundation of the European Union.

So here we are today, facing a pivotal election that also pits the elites against Main Street USA.

I think I see the same movement building today that propelled Brexit to a win and Donald Trump to win the GOP primaries. Massive participation is one sign of a movement (which means the intimidation, violence and attempt to demoralize Trump supporters by the Democrats and their Media henchman has failed).

Is there energy on the Left? We are seeing the Dem early voting drop off in battleground states. I noted this in Colorado yesterday:

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_07

CNN noticed it in North Carolina:


They look very similar don’t they?  These two states are not in the same region of the USA, so could this be a national phenomena? We shall see. This is how Brexit won the day.

So, I still don’t know what will happen. But if I assume there is a Brexit-like wave here in the US, then conservative map would look like this


It is in the hands of the voters now. With such high turnout I will actually be able to accept the results of our democracy no matter who wins because it will be the will of The People.

Viva Les Deplorables!


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Nov 07 2016

Late Breaking FL Poll Raises Alarm Bells For Clinton

Earlier today Drudge had up an alert on how Florida’s Early Voting datas howed Trump performing better than Romney (the same data I have been using for weeks now). I linked to the alarm in an update to my latest Florida Early Voting post this morning.

In that alert Drudge also pointed to a new poll out for Florida, showing Trump ahead of Hillary 49.72% to 46.13%. The poll can be viewed here.

It looked really good for Trump, so I started checking the cross tabs. There is a statement that the 1100 respondents (out of 50,000 automatic calls made) were weighted to reflect the 2012 turnout – probably making this a Dem leaning poll since Hillary is clearly not replicating Obama’s turnout this year.

With that said a couple of subgroups just jumped out at me. First, gender (click to enlarge – green box):


Trump is winning among men by 49.45% to 44.11% for Clinton. If all we did is look at this number we would assume a great day for Hillary. But one column over has Trump winning women 49.93% to 47.74% Trust me, I have had to keep checking this to make sure I was not seeing things.

How is this possible?

As I noted in a post yesterday, this year the turnout for a candidate is not driven by party ID but by education/economic level. This has turned the normal GOP-DEM dynamics on its head:

If this holds even somewhat true nationally, Clinton will lose in a landslide. From another previous post on Florida, we have this RCP link:

The answer is that education levels are a more significant factor this year. Obama won a majority of those with a high school diploma (or less) in 2012, while Romney won college-educated voters. This year the numbers are reversed. Among white voters with only a high school education, Trump leads by over 25 points. Among whites with a college degree, Clinton leads by about 10 percent.

This is the first time since serious polling began in 1952 that this has happened. The traditional pattern of Democratic support among blue-collar workers this year follows the high-school-or-less pattern with white, blue-collar workers preferring Trump to Clinton. These unique combinations of less support for traditional party loyalties across education levels accounts for the narrow Clinton lead of four points in our latest poll. Another example, which makes the point, is that women with less education are voting for Trump while college-educated women are very strong for Clinton, which cuts into the gender gap and  makes Clinton’s lead among women slightly less than Obama’s was in the previous election.

The hard truth for the Democrats is there are a lot more voters on the lower end of the education and economic rungs than there are in the upper 20% of highly educated upper middle class to super rich. That is why it is the top 20%, because they exist above the other 80%.

This is how Trump could beat Hillary with women, if the less educated and less economically successful swing to him in “yuge” numbers.

And that might also explain the other cross tab surprises:


This is amazing.  Hillary is winning African Americans and Latinos in Florida, but nowhere near the levels she needs.  Trump is garnering 26.2% of the African American vote, which everyone agrees is below 2012 levels of participation. This is theoretically supposed to be offset by a huge Latino turnout. But Trump is garnering 40.71% of that group!

I heard today that Trump is winning Latino’s who speak English (i.e., have lived in America a longer time and have acclimated). This is not a surprise, since they want to keep their jobs and fear the new tide of Arab and Persian refugees will take them away.

If these numbers are accurate, it will be a Trump landslide tomorrow.

Of course, we have no way of knowing if these numbers are accurate. I would have preferred the turnout model reflect early voting patterns for 2016. With that said, using 2012 turnout as a guide, this poll tilts towards Hillery.

If these cross tabs for women and Latinos are even in the ballpark, Clinton is heading into a very bad election day

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