Nov 03 2016

Colorado Early Voting Shows Democrat Drop-Off 11_03_16

The source of this data is here

It is a total coincidence that I decided to unveil another Early Voting metric in a battleground state the same day a new poll comes out in that state showing the same trend:

KUSA – The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is tied in Colorado.

That’s according to a poll released Wednesday by the University of Denver’s Crossley Center for Public Opinion and conducted by 9NEWS political analyst and local pollster Floyd Ciruli.

Clinton edges out Trump 42 to 41 percent in a two-way race, but it’s tied at 39 percent when you add in the Libertarian and Green Party candidates.

This is completely consistent with what the early voting statistics show us about party ballots submitted. The data is from October 27th – November 3rd. It shows a big drop off in Democrat early voting over time.  But before we get to that, let’s look at the cumulative vote by party as reported by Colorado State:

CO Early Vote By Pary 11_03

Note that from this perspective Colorado looks to be competitive between the two major parties. But that is an illusion. This is because as – as of today – the Democrats are ahead by a meager 14,181 votes, out of 1,406,573 cast. When we look at each party’s percent of the total votes, a very different picture arises:

CO Early Vote Percent Party 11_03

Note that combined the two parties represent about 72-73% of the votes submitted. The remainder is dominated by “unaffiliated” voters – independents. So setting those independents aside, let’s just focus on how the two parties are doing as a percent of the total votes cast.

As can be seen the trend for each party is dramatically different.  The GOP percentage of the total early votes in Colorado is steady at about 35%. But the democrats  are losing ground, and quickly. Early on they dominated the GOP, but now they clearly are fading.

So it would seem that the GOP voters are more determined and consistent in their voting.

If this continues Clinton’s hope of winning Colorado will also fade away.

FYI – the flat area of the line from 10/28 – 10/30 is due to the fact Colorado did not report over the weekend, so Excel interpolated between the Friday and Monday reports.

Also, according to registration numbers at the same site, the break down of the voters in Colorado for 2016 are 32% Dem, 32% Rep and 34.5% Independent. the remaining ~1.5% registered as 3rd party voters.

 

3 responses so far

Nov 03 2016

Thanks To The Clintons, We Have Achieved A Full Blow Constitutional Crisis

Make no mistake about it, the news Bret Baier broke last night is very, very serious:

The Clinton Foundation investigation is a, quote, “very high priority.” Agents have interviewed and reinterviewed multiple people about the Foundation case, and even before the WikiLeaks dumps, agents say they have collected a great deal of evidence. Pressed on that, one sources said, quote, “a lot of it,” and “there is an avalanche of new information coming every day.”

Some of it from WikiLeaks, some of it from new emails. The agents are actively and aggressively pursuing this case. They will be going back to interview the same people again, some for the third time.

As a result of the limited immunity deals to top aides, including Cheryl Mills and Heather Samuelson, the Justice Department had tentatively agreed that the FBI would destroy those laptops after a narrow review. We are told definitively that has not happened. Those devices are currently in the FBI field office here in Washington, D.C. and are being exploited.

The source points out that any immunity deal is null and void if any subject lied at any point in the investigation.

Meantime, the classified e-mail investigation is being run by the National Security division of the FBI. They are currently combing through former Democratic Congressman Anthony Wiener’s laptop and have found e-mails that they believe came from Hillary Clinton’s server that appear to be new, as in not duplicates.

Emphasis mine. The summary of this is likely indictments.

A truly pathetic response from the Political Industrial Complex was by Post reporter Charles Lane – who complained this information was from FBI leaks. As Chris Plante noted on his radio show this morning, this clown is no Woodward or Bernstein. He is simply upset his candidate is losing. So he is not even a honorable loser when democracy does not go his way. If this is how Hillary’s supporters react, the voters will revolt.

But I digress. Ignore the gnashing of partisan hacks in the media and elsewhere. We have achieved full constitutional crisis. Hillary Clinton, Democrat candidate for POTUS, and her husband and former POTUS, are now under criminal investigation with indictments very, very likely.

Who in this country wants their new President-elect and a former President under indictment come January 2017 when the new president is supposed to be sworn in?

Who in this country wants to have Nixon to the second power, with two members of our elite POTUS club spending their time and energy fighting off the FBI and using a politicized Department of Justice (and IRS) to try and hold onto power?

Who in this country wants 4 years where nothing is done for We The People, and every avenue of government is focused on protecting The Clinton Foundation and pay-for-play??

All Democrat leaders need to check their souls and figure out why they should not just throw in the towel now, and save the nation from years of strife. Nixon stood down to avoid the constitutional crisis he created. Bill Clinton did not, and went on to set up a scheme to bypass illegal donations and funds using the facade of a “charity”.

Democrats be warned. The existence of your party stands on what you do next.

Are you really going to “Be With Her”?

 

One response so far

Nov 03 2016

Where We Stand With The General Election Nov 11, 2016

I had stopped looking at the General Election polls back on October 24th. Mainly because there were so many and also because I ran out of cycles because of a delivery on my day job.

But let’s check back in and see where things stand – just a snapshot of the average support for Clinton and Trump, across all the 2-way and 4-way races:

POTUS RCP 11_03

These polls produce the following average support for the candidates

  • HRC averaging 45.83%
  • Trump averaging 45.00%
  • Difference 0.83% (Clinton)

What we have – no big surprise – is a tie.  There is no Clinton lead, and there has not been one for weeks. Back on October 24th this is what I computed:

  • HRC averaging 42.25%
  • Trump averaging 42.50%
  • Difference 0.25% (Trump)

The “statistical” Margin of Error for these polls is around +/- 3%. The voter turnout model Margin of Error is more like +/- 5% (my own scientifically based WAG). So this is a tie, which actually is bad news for the quasi-incumbent Clinton (who is facing withering bad news this week).

So it all comes down to turnout and energy for the candidate. Guess we all know where that factor points to:

Democratic VP candidate Tim Kaine is holding a rally today at 12:30 PM at Loras College in Dubuque, Iowa.

About 15 people lined up to see Kaine in Iowa.

 

 

No responses yet

Nov 02 2016

FL Early Voting 11_02_16: GOP Extends Small Ballot Lead

Published by under 2016 Elections

The source of this data is here.

The trends continue, each day the GOP builds on their lead in ballots submitted for early voting in Florida. Today that lead expanded from 15,926 to 17,456. More importantly, the GOP In-Person voting is slowly beginning to equal Dem ballots.

2016 FL Early Voting_11_02

As I have said since I began this thread, for Hillary to have a prayer of winning FL she needs to meet or exceed the 2012 benchmark for Obama-Romney.  That year the Dems beat the GOP in ballots 43-40%. As of today (and for many days now), the Dems and GOP are tied at 40% apiece.  But the GOP is building a lead that will at some point tilt that to 41-39%, which in my mind is the day Florida slips away from Clinton

2 responses so far

Nov 01 2016

Why Did Obama White House Support Comey?

Published by under All General Discussions

I have been scratching my head about what could possible be the reason the Obama White House threw the Clinton campaign (and all other Democrats complaining about Comey’s letter to Congress) under the bus by supporting Comey and his character:

“The president doesn’t believe that Director Comey is intentionally trying to influence the outcome of an election,” he said. “The president doesn’t believe that he’s secretly strategizing to benefit one candidate or one political party.”

And though he would not weigh in on Comey’s letter, Earnest said Obama maintains a high opinion of Comey and has confidence in his ability to do his job.

“Director Comey is a man of integrity, he’s a man of principle, and he’s a man of good character,” Earnest said.

It makes no sense.  None.

The White House could have just laid low and silent on the sidelines. Why do this?

Then I noticed something strange showing up in Google searches for “email”, “FBI”, “Clinton”. The strange result was “pedophile”. Now nobody should jump to any conclusions based on unfounded or unsubstantiated stories. Especiallt when citing anonymous sources (they could easily be fictional).

But ….

Here we go:

NYPD detectives were sickened by what they saw, according to our insider, and they had threatened FBI field agents that they would leak this information, if the FBI did not “step up and take off the kid gloves”. At that point, 13 of the FBI agents in NYC were also threatening to leak the information.

As you can imagine, the scandal has the entire Obama Administration in full panic. We are told there are emails that could send Loretta Lynch to prison, as well as Bill and Hillary. The Twitter post below, our sources sent us, verifying it is all true:

_________________________________________________

The topic is a supposed pedophile ring for DC Elite power brokers:

An FBI source has confirmed that evidence has emerged from the Clinton email investigation that a massive child trafficking and pedophile sex ring operates in Washington.

According to reports, at least 6 members of Congress and several leaders from federal agencies are implicated in the pedophile ring, which they say was run directly with the Clinton Foundation as a front.

According to an NYPD source, emails found on Anthony Weiner’s laptop detail trips made by Weiner, Bill and Hillary Clinton on convicted pedophile pal billionaire Jeffrey Epstein’s plane ‘Lolitta express‘ to a place known as “Sex Slave Island“.

Honestly, because of the horrid nature of this sordid story, I hope this is all just fiction. Because if it is not fiction, this country will be thrown into a massive crisis of confidence.

2 responses so far

Nov 01 2016

FL Early Voting 11_01_16: GOP Resurgence, Expand Lead

Published by under 2016 Elections

As usual, the source for this data is here.

Yesterday Florida Democrats had a great day (technically it was on Sunday, but reported yesterday) when they cut the GOP ballot lead by 2/3rds and down to 8,912 ballots.  But as I said yesterday, one day does not a trend make.

2016 FL Early Voting_11_01

Today’s report (ballots through yesterday) shows the GOP gained back a lot of their lead, now with 15,926 more ballots submitted than the Democrats. But more importantly, as the voting continues the percentages are starting to lock in.  The GOP is winning the mail-in voting 42-39% (sec0nd row). The Democrats are winning the in-person voting 39-42% (4th row).

Which leaves the two parties in a 40-40% tie overall (last row). So not really any change for the last 4 days or so.

I still maintain Clinton needs to meet or exceed Obama’s 2012 edge in earl voting ballots (40-43%) to even have a chance of winning FL. Without that edge I can’t see her winning.

 

One response so far

Oct 31 2016

FL Early Voting 10_31_16: The Empire (Dems) Fight Back!

As always the data for this analysis comes from State of Florida.

Democrats had a good weekend.  While they continue to drop off in the mail-in voting, they had a good surge with in-person voting that wiped out a significant portion of the GOP lead.

2016 FL Early Voting_31

What was a 24,000+ lead in GOP ballots yesterday has been whittled down to a 8,912 ballot lead today.  The ballot tallies are statistically tied up at 40%-40% between the GOP and Dems. The GOP dominates the mail-in vote, recording two record high days over the weekend. But Democrats had a banner day Sunday with in-person voting that gave them a win for the weekend.

Recall, the Democrats need to have the same performance that Obama did in 2012 (not 2008, as some media folks like to reference) to be viable. That year Dems had a 3% lead in the early voting in FL. That lead was critical because Obama barely squeaked out a 0.88% win overall. Without that early vote edge, Obama would not have won FL.

But one good day does not a trend make. So let’s look at the trends in early voting (please note I switched from a linear trend line to a 2nd order polynomial line given the clear change in trajectory)

FL Trend 10_31

As can be seen voting across the board looks to be tapering off.  The Democrat in-person vote seems to be tapering off the least, but their mail-in voting is tapering off the most. The GOP vote trends look to fall in between.  If we project out to Nov 3rd we see a tie in ballots submitted by each party. As long as the GOP stays even with the Democrats, Trump has a very good chance of winning Florida.

What will be interesting to see is if Democrat energy drops or stays the same this week given the blockbuster news from Friday.  It clearly did not dampen the Democrat in-person ballots over the weekend.  Unless these are fed up Dems voting for someone other than Hillary.

2 responses so far

Oct 30 2016

FL Early Vote 10_30_16: GOP Slowly Pulling Ahead

I have been remiss in the last few posts in linking to the site where I have been pulling my data – so here it is!

Today we see a pattern beginning to set in. The more people vote in FL, the more the percentages begin to freeze into place. I have not seen a major shift in any of the three numbers I have been watching over the last 3 days.

2016 FL Early Voting_30

The GOP continues to outperform the Democrats in Mail-In ballots by an edge of 42-39% (2nd row). They also continue to return Mail-In ballots at a greater rate than the Dems (4th row).

The Democrats have held the same small lead in In-Person voting for the past three days: 39-42% (4th row).

Bottom line: GOP ballots continue to lead Dem ballots overall (bottom row). The percentage has been the same for 3-4 days: 41-40%. But the gap has been growing over that same period, albeit at a snail’s pace. Today the difference is 23,446 more GOP ballots than Democrat. Yesterday it was 22,736.

A slow but steady increase.

So will the Democrats pick up the pace? I am not sure, but I don’t see how. The Democrat Get Out The Vote (GOTV) machine must be in full swing right now in this pivotal state. GOP voters are demonstrating high energy- at least enough to be competitive. So Clinton’s edge in organization and money over Trump only seems to be keeping her from sinking quickly.

I decided to look at the trends over the past week to see if we can glean any insights:

FL Trend 10_30

As the legend shows the GOP has been consistently adding to their Mail-In tallies through out (blue line).  I have added a trend line to project where the data indicates this could go 3 days out (dashed lines). If the trend continues, the GOP will have submitted 1 million mail-in ballots around Nov 2.

Skipping the red line for a moment (Democrat Mail-In ballots), lets look the GOP In-Person (green) and Democrat In-Person (purple) voting. These two group definitely have settled into a pattern. The rate of increase is not only steady, but very similar. The GOP lags behind, but consistently.

Which brings me back to the Mail-In voting by Democrats (red line). It is definitely beginning to taper off. My guess is the Democrat GOTV effort is pushing people to get to the polls. Especially those with mail-in ballots still out. So they may be cannibalizing their mail-in pool to keep the in-person rate up.

Whatever the reason, if that trend continues the Democrats will lag behind the GOP in total ballots.

Now the big caveat: The mail-in ballot pool is not infinite. Total ballots sent out is just over 3.3 million. By Nov 2nd most of those will likely have been returned. In-Person can keep growing, it has no cap.

As can be seen in the chart above, the In-Person voting is growing at a faster rate than Mail-in voting. In-Person voting has only been going on for 6 days, and it runs to November 6. So at some point it will overtake the mail-in vote tallies. That point looks to be Nov 2. The GOP will still be in the lead, but the Dems could begin to eat into that lead from Nov 3rd on.

Summary FL is still competitive – as seen in this new poll:

Donald J. Trump has slowly but surely improved his standing in state and national polls since the final presidential debate.

A New York Times Upshot/Siena poll released Sunday is consistent with that trend: It gives Mr. Trump a four-point lead in Florida, 46 percent to 42 percent, in a four-way race. In our first poll of Florida a month ago, Mr. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by a percentage point.

Many things can happen – or not happen. For example, the FBI bombshell may or may not blunt Dem enthusiasm. We will know soon enough by watching these trend lines in the final week of early voting. However, Florida is not – yet – a slam dunk for Clinton. That much we know for sure. Anyone with FL in her column is wishing on a star. And by extension that includes Texas and other silliness I have read about this week.

From what we have seen so far, Clinton and the Dems are going to fall way short of the 3% edge in early voting Obama achieved in 2012. And given the razor thin margin of Obama’s win in 2012, it looks highly unlikely Clinton can win FL without that same margin in 2016.

One response so far

Oct 29 2016

FL 10_29_16: GOP Lead In Ballots Keeps Growing

Published by under 2016 Elections

The GOP continues to slowly extend its lead in Early Voting ballots in FL. Their lead has grown from 14,349 yesterday to 22,736 today:

2016 FL Early Voting_10_29

The GOP continues to hold the lead in overall ballots submitted (last row) 41-40%. While Democrats hold an edge in In-Person voting by 39-42%, the GOP is leading by 42-39% in Mail-In voting.

Just a reminder: in 2012 the Democrats submitted more Early Voting ballots than the GOP by ~129,000. That edge was needed to push Obama over the top by 74,309 votes. Hillary and the Dems are clearly falling behind the 2012 benchmark. I would not be surprised if FL falls out of reach of the Dems by next week.

4 responses so far

Oct 28 2016

Two Planes Explode In One Day?

Published by under All General Discussions

Not time to hit the panic button yet, but the odds against two planes having fires on the same day are astronomical:

Earlier today, an American Airlines plane with 170 people aboard caught fire at O’Hare Airport in Chicago. Everyone was evacuated alive, though there are some minor injuries. But now a second plane, this one operated by FedEx, has exploded at the Ft. Lauderdale airport in Florida.

It’s unclear what caused the explosion of the plane that had just arrived from Memphis, the headquarters of FedEx. Crews were able to put out the fire, but it remains unclear if there are any injuries.

There’s so far no indication that the explosions in Chicago and Florida are connected in any way. Nevertheless, the video of the explosion is pretty terrifying:

Personally I would not think there is a pattern unless a 3rd plane (memories of 9-11 now surfacing) has issues.  Then we will know our enemies are sending us an election day message.

2 responses so far

« Newer Entries - Older Entries »