President Obama is going to go all male-alpha on us tomorrow night in the next debate, in order to make up for his flat and meandering performance in the first debate. This could easily become an unmitigated disaster if he over does it (like crazy Joe did in his dramatic debate debacle). If Obama comes out red hot like Biden, he will more than likely fall into a series of policy and reality traps waiting for him.

These traps include:

(1) The first big trap is the one Biden set for the President on Benghazi.  During Biden’s debate he made the ridiculous claim the White House and President were ignorant to the facts surrounding the attack that killed 4 people (among them our ambassador) for more than a week. As someone put it, either this is a lie to cover up something worse, or this President is so out of touch he was too lazy to find out the real story. Take your pick – lose or lose. Obama should admit the mistakes and simply promise to move heaven and earth to bring the perps to justice.

But that would go against the strategy of being the alpha-male against Romney. So Obama has little chance of being superior if he has to admit the mistake of blaming a video and a spontaneous protest for what was clearly (from day 1) a planned attack and massacre.

(2) The “Romney only paid 14% in taxes” line. Obama will try to paint Romney as a greedy, tax sheltering, 1% Scrooge.  But all Romney needs to do is note that he got away with 14% in taxes by paying something like 45% to charity:

… a new analysis of the GOP candidate’s wealth shows that the millionaire was so generous that he kept just 42 percent of his income.

Romney’s answer is simple. If I sent that to the government only a fraction would trickle down to those in need, so he prefers to maximize the money that reaches the needy by bypassing the bureaucracy. It will be a pointed reminder to the Libertarian, Tea Party element that still exists in the electorate.

(3) If Obama goes to the 47% meme, he will also leave himself open. Mainly because Romney has walked back his own comment, but more importantly Romney can point out Obama only offers the 47% more government dependence, not economic freedom. Romney can ask which path do they want to go down: food stamps or job opportunities?

Watching Biden, who is  much more seasoned debater than Obama, I could see the trap he fell into. The need for drama obliterated his ability to convey a cogent and coherent message. You can either impress with your brilliance or go to the dramatic BS. You can’t do both.

Romney just needs to perform well, Obama has to try not to be the Snark-in-Chief and not put the final stake through his own campaign.

BTW, you can see Obama losing ground still in poll  after poll. This new swing state poll shows crippling damage to Obama in the states he needs to carry:

Apparently Romney is leading in the swing states with “likely” voters by 4% 50-46%. As I noted in a previous post, this gap of Romney at 50% and Obama at 46% would make almost a given Obama loses these states, and therefore the election. A side note: in these states Romney has tied Obama with women, another clear danger sign for campaign Obama.

If Obama over does it tomorrow night, he will cement these numbers in place and that should end the election (barring a real surprise).

Sometimes people get too focused on the gap between two candidates and forget to pay attention to the actual levels. For example, an incumbent who is polling around 45-46% is more than likely to lose the election since undecided voters late in the race tend to go to the challenger. This is especially true for Presidents, who by the nature of their job have the highest visibility of any candidate in the country. Presidents are well known (or well worn) entities after 4 years in office.

So while there is a small gap between Romney and Obama in the RCP poll of polls, the levels indicate (today) that Obama is very likely to lose on election day.  The data is pretty brutal (click to enlarge):

This is a snapshot of the RCP poll of polls this morning, Oct 13, 2012. Amazingly the incumbent President is polling at only 46% across the average of 7 polls. That means that 46% is not an outlier, but the real trend when you see it so consistently like this. All these polls confirm Obama is very likely to lose the election. If this goes to 45% I would say it is a given. If Romney elevates to 49%, it is a given.

This may explain why state polls are shifting to Romney (they tend to lag the national numbers since they are not taken as often).

As long as Obama is at 46% or below across this many polls there is almost nothing that can save him from being a one term wonder like Jimmy Carter.

Tags: 2012 Election, Polls, Presidential Race

LJStrata and I are very upset with the US Military right now. Our son is deployed and has been trying for weeks to get his absentee ballot and get it mailed. He was told today he is too late, the deadline was two weeks ago.

This is a total crock. These men and women are putting it all on the line to protect our right to vote, and this is what they get in return? I would bet this is not isolated, and an investigation is in order. It won’t help this cycle, but this should NEVER happen. If a military person on deployment wants to vote, they should move heaven and earth to make it happen.

The nation is hurting. It is fed up with the condescending failures in DC. It is sick and tired of promises never kept, but the DC connected being the only ones not hurting after their social experiment with mortgages blew up in all our faces. Very few people think the Bush tax cuts caused the home mortgage meltdown. Everyone knows it was liberal policies that allowed anyone who could fog a mirror to get loans, and then in a mass of defaults wipe out decades of equity and therefore retirement savings.

And the VP is laughing this all off as some kind of joke?

I tell you what, if the left is energized by boorish and moronic behavior – no wonder they produce epic fails in terms of trickle-down government. And I still say, the next hard hitting ad that needs to come out is Biden blaming intel for that BS about the video and its connection to 4 murdered Americans. Of which (the ambassador) pleaded with giggling Joe and his administration to send more security.

Obama called these dead Americans ‘bumps in the road’ and Biden (is court jester) giggles. You want to see energized? Watch the insurgent voters come out and send Mr. Laughing Gas into retirement.

Tags: Biden, Giggle, Laugh GOP ad, VP Debate

Final Update: My first observation is still the most important. When Biden contradicted the State Dept and the intelligence community on how Libya asked for more security we have the perfect campaign ad. All you do is run the heritage ad and this race is over. Hot Air has one word for VP Biden – Jerk

11:17 PM:CNN post debate snap poll, 48% Ryan – 44% Biden. That means Biden failed. A tie does not change the trajectory. The VP debate cannot do much unless it is significant – this was not significant. The deal breaker was the smirk. We are so tired of the DC smirk…..

So tired of the know-it-alls who fail across the board.

10:46 PM: Fox (Brett Hume) nailed Biden’s mistake. While Romney dominated the first debate, he did it in a low key, non-smirk manner. Biden failed because his efforts to control crossed a line. Obama-Biden still sinking with the moderate middle.

10:41 PM: The Smirk killed Biden. Technically the debate could have been a draw, but when you compare the composure Biden was annoying, not leading. Obama has gained nothing – not even time. Biden was NOT likable. I don’t want that guy in my living room any more.

10:21 PM: This pretty much sums up tonight – giggling VP lost his composure.

10:19 PM Eastern: Biden just babbled that abortion was a choice between woman, doctor and Supreme Court?

10:00 PM Eastern: Biden just confirmed what Ryan said about Afghanistan (and I agree we are done there) that leaving is more important than protecting the gains. Debate win: Ryan

9:46 PM Eastern:  Biden is getting rattled. He is losing his patience and is not making clear and coherent arguments. Old Joe is rattled. He is the one lost in numbers and wonkish crap.

9:38 PM Eastern:  Biden is fighting back, but he is still losing ground. Ryan is much better at explaining what is going on, what is at risk, what is the cost. On Medicare Biden is babbling again. Trust your feelings????? Why is Biden laughing and interrupting? He is losing it – big time

9:23 PM Eastern: Alpha male Biden blowing it big time…. Women are not impressed with his posturing. Obama never bluffs?

9:22 PM Eastern: Biden is a technological idiot. The barrier to a nuclear weapon is fissile material. Creating the chain reaction to make it explode is not that hard (check any nuclear reactor and the efforts they go through to AVOID a nuclear cascade  – see Japan).

9:20 PM Eastern: Beebee? Yes I know who that is – but does anyone but Biden? And ‘stuff’? And what about that dumb ass smile? He is not taking this seriously.

9:17 PM Eastern: What is Biden babbling about? We can nuke Iran (as if that is a national security secret)? Did Biden say there is no bomb mechanism? And Biden flashing that false smile is already a bad tell….

9:16 PM Eastern: News from Biden: Russia and China are our allies! Is this the Onion?

9:14 PM Eastern: VP Biden is failing  miserably – if you know current events. Biden just handed Team Romney the best ad of all time by claiming there were no requests for security from our murdered Ambassador. Imagine the ad that has crazy Joe making the claim there were no requests overlaid by request after request, attack after attack.

And Biden’s memory moment did not help. Out of touch? Can you get any better example? Ryan is sharp, Joe looks lost.

Tags: Live Blogging, VP Debate

After 4 years of failing to ignite the job market through government trickle-down priming – which did keep government workers, union members and green energy flim-flam artists employed – the President has now dedicated all his energy on one key job. Apparently his entire campaign is now not just about saving his own job, but that of one other special ‘person’ too:

For Obama’s supporters, already dismayed by the president’s halting performance in last week’s debate with Republican Mitt Romney, that change in tune is a new source for concern as they fret that a children’s TV show has become a new backdrop for their candidate’s campaign.

In a moment of tightening polls and climbing anxiety for Obama’s supporters, the president’s decision to grant Big Bird a starring role in his campaign this week has presented another reason to reach for the Alka-Seltzer.

Yep, priority number one for Team Obama is to save this job:

I agree with others who note it is time for Big Bird to leave the nest and live on all those millions this hugely successful franchise brings in on its own. And we need a new President who doesn’t get so easily distracted and actually knows what he is doing when it comes to the economy, business and jobs.

Tags: Big Bird, Economy, Jobs, President Obama

Oh boy, put the liberals on suicide watch because this news is going to flip them out:

The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?Obama 47 (49)
Romney 49 (45)

That’s a pretty disastrous six-point net swing in just a week, and the first time we’ve ever had Romney in the lead. It is inline with all other national polling showing Romney making gains in the wake of his debate performance last week.

Yep, that is  disaster because President Obama is in the dead-duck range, historically. The President is too close to the 45% level which no incumbent can survive, and Romney is just under the 50% mark, which also is highly predictive of a win. Late deciders usually break to the challenger and against the incumbent. So this is a horrible poll for Team Obama. And this from a left-wing organization (KOS-SEIU)!

Tags: 2012 Election Polls, KOS, Obama, Romney

Update: Andrew Sullivan’s expression of shock tells me the current poll reversal has to be more than just a good/poor debate performance:

Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And we are told that when Obama left the stage that night, he was feeling good. That’s terrifying. On every single issue, Obama has instantly plummeted into near-oblivion.

No, we have never seen a debate do this much damage. Maybe what we are actually seeing is the debate  triggering the flood gates to open and this silent, resistant voting bloc finally engaging. Some kind of floodgate opened, that is for sure.

And one other note: this pattern is universal. This shift to Romney is happening at the national and state level. The shift is so universal and consistent it has to be something in the electorate and how they are sampled (or allow themselves to be sampled). Like I said, if one monolithic bloc avoids sampling, then the polls will be seriously out of whack. – end update

In two previous posts (here and here) I pondered the theory that the 2010 insurgent voting – primarily coming from a anti-government position and fed up with the lack of progress after years of voting out Dems and voting in the GOP – was actively resisting being polled. Since the 2010 wave of Tea Party/Libertarian voting that swept Dems out of elected office at all levels of government, there has been no change in direction in terms of government spending and failure. Each opportunity to change course ended with the usual empty promises for a better, future, fiscal behavior (see empty chairs).

Myself and many others basically gave up on government solutions – left and right. It became obvious that the only way to slay the bloated beast  of runaway government waste, fraud and abuse was to keep voting in new Libertarian faces until critical mass was achieved. The reality is you can send the signals to the libs all day long and they won’t listen. So you vote them out and keep cycling GOP candidates until you cleanse the other side of any remnants of activist government (which includes imposing social agendas, harsh immigration actions, etc). No more government nags and nannies – period.

This meant tuning out much of the political babble that passes for deep thought these days. I have been struggling for months to post on current events, especially politics related topics, since what we need is less babble and more action. Real action. And the only opportunity for real action is coming up here in November. And like others, I am ready to engage seriously again.

So are we seeing one of the most masterful debates of all time, from a candidate who received a hesitant  reception from his own party due to the fact he has been an activist government type before (see Romneycare and the fact he was/is a climate alarmist)? Did this ho-hum candidate catch fire over one debate and turn the tides? Are the seas receding because of one presidential debate that really did not provide a lot of details and not nearly enough small-government action?

I seriously doubt it.  Romney’s debate was good and Obama was awful, but Reagan and Bush both survived horrible first debates. No, something else is ALSO in play here. And this analysis in the Washington Post begins to touch on what it might really be:

But the newly released data also undercut a persistent criticism of election polls: that there is a “true” measure of partisan identification — and its malicious corollary, that pollsters are manipulating reality.

…

So who moved in Romney’s direction?

Well, not political independents, for one. There was no meaningful change in their support for Obama or Romney in either poll.

All of the change in both polls came from the composition of each sample. In pre-debate interviews by Gallup, self-identified Democrats outnumbered Republicans by five percentage points, according to Gallup’s Jeff Jones. By contrast, in the three days following the debate, the balance shifted in a GOP direction, with 34 percent of registered voters identifying as Republicans (two points up from pre-debate), 33 percent as Democrats (four points down).

For Pew, a nine-point Democratic advantage in mid-September is now plus one percentage point for the GOP. (The turnabout in “likely voters” was even more dramatic, shifting from Democrats up 10 to Republicans up five.)

So we are seeing +10% swing to the GOP in party ID in one month in Pew, and +6% in Gallup. Did all these people switch parties in three weeks? Over one debate?

Not likely. As I suspected, the anti-government, Tea Party, Libertarian insurgent voter of 2010 has decided to start coming out of their self imposed exile. They are starting to respond to pollster calls. They are beginning to let the walls down and prepare for this next election cycle. Their minds have been made up for week, months or years. They are forced to side with the GOP because that is the only party pushing Libertarian proposals. There has been no need for debate or discussion. If you want smaller, less intrusive and financial constrained government Obama and the Dems are not the answer.

As this monolithic and large voting bloc start to engage and be heard, I expect to keep seeing the polls shift. These people were always out there – just like the funky U-3 unemployment numbers cannot mask the 27 million people out of work, underemployed or who just gave up and are not counted. These people are still fed up, still hurting, and still ready to vote the reality that exists on the street. Mythical poll numbers and unemployment rates are simply PR stunts to pretend there is no problems out there.  To buy time. To gather more money and hope for a miracle….

A truly reaction from a group who don’t even believe in a God.

The answer is coming to DC and it is clear – again

Tags: 2012 elections, Libertarian, Polls, Tea Party

There are reasons things go viral –  sometimes they are universally recognized as AWESOME!

Update: Ed Morrissey has some similar observations over at Hot Air. Ed catches something important that I missed:

That’s even more true when one takes into consideration the sample breakdown in this poll.  It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8.  That’s more Democratic than 2008?s D+7, which took place in a cycle with much more Democratic enthusiasm than this poll demonstrates.  If Obama trails in a D+8 poll by 6 among the extremely likely voters with four weeks to go, he’s in deep trouble — and his debate performance certainly won’t boost him.

That is really a stunner, but goes back to what I have been saying. The old turnout model with a ridiculous +D sample is the only way you get a close race. If you adjust for the intensity in the sample itself, you get a Romney blow out. So it would seem the polls are skewed, in that they refuse to accept the change being seen in the sample, and continue to pretend it is 2008. – end update

Early in an election year pollsters have little choice but to seed their polling analyses with turnout models that reflect historic percentages by groups. This application of historic turnout is used because in normal elections periods the electorate is vary stable in its voting patterns. But in times of upheaval and concern, the voting patterns can shift. As we have seen since President Obama has been elected and produced a string of failures and questionable results (i.e., Solyndra), the electorate has been increasingly rejecting the path the Liberal Democrats set this country on 4 years ago. So in my mind historic turnout models are pretty useless.

That is evident in the surprise Governor elections of 2009, when the GOP swept Christie and McDonnell into office in NJ and VA (respectively) with historic win margins. It was true in early 2010 when Scott Brown won a surprise special election in MA to fill Ted Kennedy’s Senate Seat (special elections rarely send political messages, but this one did). It was demonstrated in spades during the 2010 midterm elections when the Democrats were wiped out in a historic drubbing. And it was true in 2011 and 2012 when the left failed to upend Wisconsin Senate and Gubernatorial elections when fighting Scott Walker.

For those who can connect dots, the pattern is clear.

The pattern is also much clearer today with the release of a brutal Battleground Poll. There are two turnout models being provided in this poll (something I wish every pollster would do to show the probable ranges of turnout dynamics, not just the historic model result). First, the historic model result:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Pollof likely voters shows Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a week ago.

So it is a tie? Not very likely. At least these folks went into ‘the tabs’ and began to assess some confidence in the typical turnout model answer. And what they discovered is a blow to Team Obama:

Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.

Emphasis mine. In three weeks we are supposed to believe the political dynamic shifted from +3 Obama to +6 Romney – a shift of 9% towards the GOP? Honestly, it could be true given Benghazi and Obama’s debate performance. I think other forces are in play here, especially a quiet but determined Tea Parry voting bloc who has been keeping politics out of their lives until the voting begins. And it has begun.

Irregardless, what this second result clearly shows is if you re-jigger the turnout model to represent group intensity (what the turnout model would change to from historic trends), then the result is dramatically different. This is a clear example of historic trends vs current pulse of the electorate.

And this makes a lot of sense when you think about it. The trend since 2008 has been historically unique turnouts, resulting in historic wins for the GOP. So if you blindly assume the Dem turnout success will be as big or bigger (to wipe out Obama’s erosion with independents) than 2008, then you can eek out a close race.

But if you look at how things have shifted after 4 years of brutal economic recession and failed government trickle down economics, then you get a Romney blow out.

There are clear details inside this poll which provide further confirmation of a historic blow out. First, partisan intensity:

Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.

Then, there is the independent vote – the home of the Tea Party Libertarian movement:

Romney now leads among independents by 16 points, 51 percent to 35 percent. This is up from 4 points last week.

+12 in on week? Again, I suspect something more than a debate is at work here. It is possible the debate gave the insurgent 2010 voter reason to reengage and begin answering pollsters again. Or maybe the facade dropped and more people are answering honestly. Who knows, but a +16 with independents does not create a tie at the top.

The pollsters think this independent edge is offset by monolithic support from minority voters, yet they also say this:

While 82 percent of whites (who break for Romney by a 15-point margin) say they’re “extremely likely” to vote, only 71 percent of African-Americans and 70 percent of Latinos do. And just 68 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds, another key Obama constituency, put themselves in the “extremely likely” to vote category.

My gut feeling tells me the massively unemployed 18-29 year old group either sits this one out or votes against Obama – being the hardest hit economically by Obama-Reid-Pelosi mistakes. So take this argument with a grain of salt.

Gallup is also seeing a ‘surprise’ jump since the debate debacle. Expect more erosion to come. Obama will be walloped in the foreign policy side over Benghazi. That completely avoidable disaster begs the question – who in their right mind removes security forces while an Embassy is being targeted, hit and threatened? There is no defense of this, and Obama will once again be back on his heels fumbling.

Tags: 2012 elections, Battleground, Polls