A peculiar rumour went flying through the British newspapers over the weekend involving the now dormant case of Alexander Litvinenko (for my posts on the matter and my theory of what happened with the Polonium 210 last October jump here). The rumour was that someone in the British government had asked the prosecutors to not charge the media’s favorite suspect: the 2 Russians who met with Litivinenko 2-3 times when Po-210 traces showed up in the hotel where they were staying. One of these Russians, Andre Lugovoi, was in London at each hotel showing Po-210 contamination. He was a regular business associate of Litvinenko’s, but a longtime comrade of Boris Berezovsky – the man who has Po-210 inside his office. In my mind the lot of them were working on something that went wrong, and Litvinenko died from an accidental exposure which nearly killed Lugovoi and the third man, Dmitry Kovtun.

But what is interesting is not the lame charge, but the response the charge elicited and what it can tell us about what happened with the case:

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There are reports all over the press that Scotland Yard is expected to issue arrest warrants in the case of the Po-210 death of Alexander Litvinenko last November:

Police are to issue arrest warrants against three Russian suspects in the poisoning of former Russian security agent Alexander Litvinenko, it is claimed today.

British police have enough evidence to bring charges “within three weeks,” The Mail on Sunday reported, citing unidentified sources described as close to Litvinenko’s widow, Marina.

Boris Berezovsky, the Russian oligarch who helped create a foundation dedicated to pressuring British and Russian investigators to bring those responsible for the poisoning to justice, said Marina Litvinenko has not mentioned any arrests to him. Scotland Yard has not commented on the report, saying it does not discuss arrest warrants before they are issued.

I have nothing personal against Litvinenko’s wife Marins, but ev everyone close to her is an associate of Berezovsly’s. And I question the timing of this statement given Berezovsky is in hot water for his comments supporting and finnancially backing a coup d’etat in the Democratic Russian government. And the reporting here is as bad as usual with this case:

The arrest warrants are expected to be issued against the Russian businessmen Dmitry Kovtun and Andrei Lugovoi and Vyacheslav Sokolenko, the head of a private Russian security firm, according to the newspaper report.

Sokolenko did not meet with Litvinenko and spent his entire day with his family. I don’t even think he was found to have any Po-210 exposure. So any ‘reporting’ on this seems to smack of speculation. Is it possible there are three Russians in the cross hairs? Sure, but I doubt it should be these three. It seems The Daily Mail is the source for all the breaking news.

The Metropolitan Police refused to comment on the murder inquiry, but Litvinenko family sources told The Mail on Sunday police had enough evidence to bring charges ‘within three weeks’.

I seriously doubt the police told the family anything since the family is a well known leaker to the media. All the anti-Putin, anti-Lugovoi, anti-Kovtun stuff in the press is always sourced or announced by Berezovsky allies. And it is Beresovsky who refused to answer questions regarding finances (which is clearly a relevant line of inquire when dealing with the smuggling of nuclear material as expensive as Po-210). The trail of Po-210 leads to Berezovsky’s office and another mystery office at 56 Grosvenor square. And Berezovsky is STILL calling for the undemocratic overthrow of the Russian Government:

And, repeating earlier attacks on Mr Putin, whom he accused of corruption before escaping Russia, Mr Berezovsky added: “Any other way of changing this anti-constitutional regime, except for a coercive one which includes revolution, is impossible.

Berezovsky spends huge amounts of money to manipulate the media. And we still might have vast amounts of Po-210 out there some place, or some other method of fomenting divide is always available. These reports could be nothing more than prepatory work for a pending action by the corrupt Oligarchs to take action before elections can happen. And their alliance with the violent Chechen rebels (including Litvinenko’s) is hard to ignore when trying to decide which side is better. Do we stick with the democratically elected government allied with us against terrorism or do we side with an illegal grab for power which is allied with terrorists.

Only the media is failing to see the obvious danger in buying into Berezovsky’s madness. Of course, they are so gullible it is hard not to see why.

This post is pure speculation, but I have been tripping over some news here and there regarding Polonium-210 in general and the Litvinenko incident specifically, which when put together create a possible scenario for where the Po-210 that was found in London either came from or went. I wanted to just capture all these stories in one post and establish an interesting theory, which honestly has no basis in reality – yet.
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There is a book out on the Litvinenko incident that I posted on before. It clearly shows someone seeing evidence in light of a preconcieved notion, at least the first excerpt does. This is the unintentionally, yet impossible to bypass, bias that has the UK media grasping to the assassination theory without considering any other equally viable alternatives. And of course to keep this up they need to now ignore evidence outright – as this latest excerpt does. Since you only need to show a fatal flaw in a theory to make it a useless one, I will provide a couple (as usual). Here is the basic premise underpinning every conclusion in this segment:

The accumulated weight of evidence is overwhelming. Elements among Litvinenko’s former colleagues in the FSB had not for a moment ceased to plot against him, and on November 1 last year they got him.

What can be said with equal certainty is that it was an operation long in the planning. Lugovoi first contacted Litvinenko at the end of 2005, setting up a business relationship that served as a reason for his and Kovtun’s visits leading to the final encounter on November 1 in the Pine Bar of the Millennium hotel.

Indeed, the subterfuge may go back further. Back in 2001 he had been jailed for allegedly taking part in a botched operation to help Berezovsky’s jailed business partner escape from Lefortovo prison in Moscow. He was released soon afterward and became a successful businessman.

If the aim was to infiltrate him as a double agent into the Berezovsky camp, it means Lugovoi then spent five years or more as a “sleeper”, gaining the confidence of the enemy before carrying out his long-planned mission.

As folks know this idea Lugovoi was a sleeper comes primarily from the people around Berezovsky. But Berezovsky has had to admit that Lugovoi was his bodyguard and the bodyguard for his daughter – not positions given to just anyone. Lugovoi was a more trusted associate to Berezovsky than Litvinenko was – fact one. So let’s debunk more of this hyperbole:

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At the end of a fairly successful and grueling business trip I thought I would pass on some interesting details I have seen on the Litvinenko case. Tidbits are all we seem to get these days – a crumb here or there in a news story. But the crumbs either support or conflict with the presumed theories out there, and so we have had some really interesting ones pop up in reporting recently. First is a glimpse at the level of cantamination by Polinium-210 experienced by Lugovoi and Kovtun, to give some relative perspective on their dosage compared to Litvinenko, Marina (one of the highest doses recorded who did not require hospitalization) and Scaramella (remember him – the original target of the Berezovsky media machine). Here is some evidence of the dosage level on the two Russians based on their hospital stays (noting Kovtun did lose his hair and Scaramella and Marina did not):

Mr Lugovoi said he was in hospital for three weeks and Mr Kovtun for more than a month but they declined to comment on what doctors had discovered.

That clearly puts Kovtun as the second most contaminated and Lugovoi as the third most contaminated – behind only Litvinenko who died from his exposure. My opinion still is this near brush with death is what has made these two witnesses align against those smuggling the Po-210. Berezovsky and Goldfarb initially were very vague and refused to use Lugovoi’s and Kovtun’s names when they pointed their fingers towards Putin. But that may have been a simple gamble that these two would not survive their expsure. If all three – Litvinenko, Kovtun and Lugovoi – were all exposed in a room at the Millenium hotel (which are still closed down) at the same time then Berezovsky might have been playing a waiting game to see if the too would die as Litvinenko did. When they did not die, and when they started cooperating, then the name “Lugovoi” began to be use by Goldfarb and Berezovsky to link to Putin. Coincidence?

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I still have doubts Litvinenko was deliberately killed with Po-210 and believe he was part of a smuggling effort who was contaminted when an accident occurred handling the deadly material. But I must note the possibility that Berezovsky and Litvinenko not only had a falling out where Berezovsky stopped providing Litvinenko his money to exist on (confirmed by statements from Berezovsky), but that maybe Berezovsky used Litvinenko as a prop to frame Putin. The theory arises from a man who lives in Britain (and therefore is under UK, not Russian, protection) who has made claims before that he was sent by Putin to kill Berezovsky. And that these claims are the basis of Berezovsky’s long standing asylum status in the UK.

I would be remiss to point out that early on a student who had interviewed Litvinenko had made claim that Litvinenko had fallen out with Berezovsky and was planning on blackmailing people to make his living.

Julia Svetlichnaja, who met Litvinenko earlier this year and received more than 100 emails from him. In a series of interviews, she reveals that the former Russian secret agent had documents from the FSB, the Russian agency formerly known as the KGB.

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n today’s Observer, Svetlichnaja, a politics student at the University of Westminster, says Litvinenko claimed he had access to Russian intelligence documents containing information on individuals and companies that had fallen foul of the Kremlin.

‘He told me he was going to blackmail or sell sensitive information about all kinds of powerful people, including oligarchs, corrupt officials and sources in the Kremlin,’ she said. ‘He mentioned a figure of £10,000 that they would pay each time to stop him broadcasting these FSB documents. Litvinenko was short of money and was adamant that he could obtain any files he wanted.’

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As everyone who reads this blog knows I have been of the opinion that the Po-210 that was smuggled into London last October (possibly during three separate consignments, each of which could have dwarfed the amount that killed Alexander Litvinenko, was an effort by Boris Berezovsky to plant a story of nuclear holocaust at the feet of Putin’s administration. I came by this opinion by looking at the evidence and the total illogic of using an expensive commodity – perfect for a nuclear dirty bomb – to kill an unknown has-been like Litvinenko. Now it turns out that this may not be the first time Berezovsky staged an incident to frame Putin in a faux assassination effort:

A man identified only as Pyotr said that former KGB officer Alexander Litvinenko had offered him millions of dollars to falsely confess that he had been assigned to kill Boris Berezovsky, a critic of the Kremlin, with a poisoned fountain pen.

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Pyotr said he had refused Litvinenko’s offer but was dosed with psychotropic drugs and forced to falsely confess on tape, the reporter for Rossiya television’s weekly news program “News of the Week.”

While there are reports the Po-210 that killed Litvinenko was produced in Russia, there are also reports Russia has accounted for all the Po-210 it has produced and exported – to the point of exportation. So what if the Po-210, produced in Russia, was obtained outside of Russia to provide a trail back to the government? Is it any surprise that the people tied to the Polonium trail in London both worked for Berezovsky closely, and protected his life as well as the life of his daughter? That would be Litvinenko and Lugovoi. And is it surprising the Polonium trail is connected to every meeting Litvinenko had with Lugovoi when he visited London in October? And is it any surprise the Po-210 trail runs directly to Berezovsky’s office and to locations in his office tied to Litvinenko (the copier) and Lugovoi (the couch).

These connections between the two people tied to the Polonium trail and locations in Berezovsky’s office were made by Berezovsky’s mouthpiece Alex Goldfarb. He is the one who made statements to the media about how Po-210 was possibly deposited by the two men. And Berezovsky has admitted both men visited his office around the time of Litvinenko’s fatal dose. So why would Berezovsky use Po-210 tied to Russia to frame Putin? It is obvious.

The TV program said the false confession tape was a key element in a British court’s decision not to extradite Berezovsky to face criminal charges in Russia, and to eventually grant him citizenship – an apparent suggestion that Berezovsky tried to eliminate witnesses to the subterfuge, including Litvinenko.

Pyotr said he was under British police protection because he feared for his life.

Two things to note. Unlike Putin, the Po-210 trail does lead right to Berezovsky’s desk – literally. But also note that this mysterious Pyotr is NOT in Russia, but in England and under their protection. This would tell me this is not a Russian propaganda game. And it explains why Lugovoi and Kovtun, the two other seriously poisoned by the Po-210 and tied to the trail across Moscow, Hamburg and London are acting like they are cooperating witnesses and not suspects.

This doesn’t look like wild speculation. It is noteworthy the Russian investigators, aided by Scotland Yard, were interested in the financial accounts of Berezovsky and Litvinenko. Maybe here is why:

In the Vesti Nedeli broadcast, Pyotr claimed that he also had gone to England to seek political asylum in 2003 and that he was approached by Litvinenko two days after arriving.

Litvinenko, Pyotr claimed, told him: “We recognized you, you are a KGB colonel … (I know) that your goal is to assassinate Berezovsky.”

Litvinenko further told him, “‘Admit that you are supposed to kill Berezovsky with poison hidden in a fountain pen and we will pay you 2 million pounds,”‘ Pyotr said. The program claimed that the proposed payment eventually rose to 40 million pounds.

40 million pounds is 60 million dollars – well enough to pay for smuggled Polonium 210. There is also word of another unnamed Berezovsky associate in the deal – wonder who that is. Is it the Chechyan rebel neighbor of Litvinenko? What is clear is there is now some indication that Berezovsky not only tried to buy Putin when he was head of the FSB, not only tried to extort Putin, but tried to frame him as well. It seems there are no limits, no amount of money Berezovsky will dole out to remove Putin and take over Russia.

I still think Litvinenko’s death was an accident that exposed the start of a heinous nuclear crime, and possibly a frame-up to unseat Putin. And the more we learn the more reasonable that view appears.

The investigation into Alexander Litvinenko’s has gone incredibly quiet of late. The British side of the investigation was continued as prosecutors went back to police and asked for more details. One of the very few interesting details to come out is the number of people who ‘came in contact’ with the deadly element Polonium 210. Po-21 is a naturally occurring element so people come into contact with it all the time. But the UK Health Protection Agency has recently made an interesting reference to the groups of people they have identified as at risk and their exposure levels:

The Health Protection Agency has tested more than 700 people. Results showed 85 had raised levels of Polonium 210, and a further 52, including Mr Atkins, had had direct contact with the deadly substance. Of those, 17 now have an increased risk to their long-term health.

Emphasis mine. It is clear the HPA is making reference to the material that killed Litvinenko – not to Po-210 in general since clearly everyone has had some exposure who test positively. This story is one I discussed before, where the claim this man drank from the same cup as Litvinenko is fairly weak. The bar staff, as noted in the story, was exposed to higher levels and it is clear that came from the dishwasher. So was the man’s cup contaminated? Most likely yes since he drank his coffee right after Litvinenko was there. But it could have come from the washing of the tea cup and pot and the spread of the radiating material that way.

The other big turn of events is the fact the Russians are in London and seem ready to start questioning people and investigating the myriad of lcoations the Po-210 has shown up.

A law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the case, said Russian investigators would likely be accompanied by British detectives as they conduct inquiries in London.

Russian officials have been eager to visit several sites and question about 100 people, including the exiled Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky.

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No additional interviews by British investigators in Russia were expected.

That last line caught me by surprise. Is it because Russia is blocking access to Kovtun and Lugovoi (the latter being a long time Berezovsky ally and around whom a trail of meetings with Litvinenko and Po-210 swirls)? Or does the UK have access to cooperating witnesses in Russia and a visit is not necessary? Up until now there was a clamor to return and question the two, but now the interest seems to have faded. It will be interesting to see how this next stage pans out.

I always wondered why the Chechen terrorists, just a day after Litvinenko died, named him a martyr for the Chechen cause. It was one of the indicators that Litvinenko was more likely smuggling Po-210 to Putin’s enemies than being the target of a Po-210 armed Putin assassin. How a Russian could become a Muslim martyr while living in London. Quite impressive. Now it seems there may be first hand knowledge out of Chechnya of Berezovsky’s personal hand (with Litvinenko) in allying with those trying to topple Putin and the Russian government:

Reporters Without Borders voiced scepticism today about a claim made by Chechnya’s acting President Ramzan Kadyrov at a news conference in Grozny on 20 February that Boris Berezovsky (a Russian businessman and former politician now living in exile in Britain) ordered the murders of journalist Anna Politkovskaya and former KGB spy Alexander Litvinenko.

Kadyrov claimed that he was personally present at meetings at which Berezovsky compromised himself and that Berezovsky, aided by Litvinenko, had financed Chechen separatist fighters with the aim of destroying Russia.

Now that is a serious claim. And I suppose it could be backed up with something to give it some credibility (or it could be bluster – I am well aware of the Russian use of the press). But it seems there is another person who backs this up:

Izmayilov said he knew who had made a statement accusing Berezovsky – an individual known as “Pirate” who has been involved in hostage-trafficking in Chechnya and who is under pressure from the secret services.

I would not be surprised, if this is in fact true, there is a sea of evidence pointing towards this scenario. You cannot move money without traces. All you can do is try and move it without it being noticed. But once people have an inkling something is afoot, they can look at the records, look at the sources, destinations and hops in between, and find the money trails. Once the light is shone, the trail becomes quickly evident.

An interesting comment from Andre Lugovoi in recent days has me thinking the UK investigation may be hedging its bets into how Litvinenko ended up poisoned by Po-210:

Law-enforcement bodies of Russia and Great Britain are investigating 3 criminal cases at once, all of which concern Alexander Litvinenko’s poisoning, said former KGB officer Andrei Lugovoi, who is a witness in one of the cases. Lugovoi underlined that his status of witness has not changed.

Lugovoi denied pointblank all suspicions of his having relation to the poisoning of Litvinenko with polonium, reported Ekho Moskvy radio station.

So between the two countries there are three criminal cases being investigated? Well we know one of the cases is an assassination of Litvinenko using Po-210 as the ‘weapon of choice’. Regular readers of this blog know I am highly dubious of this theory because there are a myriad of proven, cheaper, less traceable and nearly invisible poisions an assassin could use which do not require the smuggling of a nuclear material used in nuclear weapon triggers, which is impossible to handle in its solid form, and which requires a very sophisticated lab to create a salt form that would disolve in a liquid. Even the most amatuerish assassin would leave Po-210 as a last resort option.

But that investigation is mandated by circumstances. So what are the other two? Well one is probably a smuggling operation trafficking in a nuclear material that is used in nuclear weapons triggers and would be an optimal material for a deadly dirty bomb which could kill thousands from an amount of material less than a packet of sweetener used in tea or coffee. That is still the scenario that, in my humble opinion, best fits the facts, evidence and key players.

So what is the third option? The Oligarch war, where someone took out Litvinenko because he was a threat to one or another of the powerful Russians in exile. I have serious doubts about this as I do with the state assassination theory. And would this be another investigation or the same as the first one? I guess there is a case to be made where Litvinenko knew what he was dealing in (Po-210) and a case where he was ignorant of the material he was handling and was killed through a mishap. So we could have two variants on the smuggling angle. Or it could be simply we have a UK investigation and two independent Russian investigations (or vice versa). Whatever it is, I doubt all eyes our focused on Putin right now.