Feb 14 2011
The Middle East Transformation
Sorry folks, buried under family issues and a massive work load so posting has been impossible. But I can’t help but note that some kind of transformational match has been lit in the MIddle East, what with the departure of Mubarak and elections this fall in Egypt, the dissolving of the Palestinian Cabinet, protests flaring up all over.
I still don’t see this as being an anti-west brush fire, but more a pro-democracy grass roots fire storm. While Islamo Fascists groups may want to take advantage of these opportunities, I personally believe the forces behind these uprisings are to strong to be bent to any one faction’s will. The decades of frustration with the decades of stagnation while the rest of the planet ushered in the modern world with all its benefits and treasures has burst upon the international stage. There is no way to divert this force from the path it is on – even if we don’t have a clear understanding yet where that path leads. The worst decision would be to try and get in the way of the change and stop it. That can only lead to being run over and rejection by the very masses behind the transformation.
We live in interesting times. I believe most of this upheaval will be seen as progress towards freedom. Some places will slip backwards and become centers of hate and violence. There is no perfection in this universe we live in. But by and large I think the torch George W Bush lit in Iraq and Afghanistan, and strengthened in Pakistan, as turned into a historic grass roots brush fire that is consuming the Middle East and Arab countries.
Would love to hear what others think – so have at it in the comments!
I pretty much see it through your eyes, AJ.
I haven’t heard anything on the news yet; but, evidentally there are some protests going on in Iran today. Live bloggers say there are tens of thousands:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/02/iran-live-blog-25-bahman-14-february.html
More here:
Preparations Underway for the February 14 Demonstrations in Iran
http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=6195
And, it seems to be spreading fast throughout the ME:
Domino Effect Coming to Palestinian Territories and Afghanistan?
http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=6228
Bangkok Next? Thousands Clog Thailand Capital For Anti-Government Protest
http://www.breitbart.tv/bangkok-next-thousands-clog-thailand-capital-for-anti-government-protest/
You know what thought comes to my mind about the democracy revolution sweeping the world right now?
“If you build it, they will come”.
I agree AJ, there’s nothing inherently anti-western so far, although you never know how things will end up. If the army really does go ahead and allow free elections in 6 months I’ll feel a lot better about things – heaven knows Mubarak’s elections were never free.
Iran’s government is too vicious to ever fall for protests. I fear that they’ll be in power until the moment a nuke goes off over Tehran, in response to one they’ve launched themselves.
I dunno, 4, 5 years tops.
[…] the Capitol” withers in GOP House – hotair.com 02/14/2011 As does its bill. more… The Middle East Transformation – strata-sphere.com 02/14/2011 Sorry folks, buried under family issues and a massive work […]
I agree AJ.
First the “Arab Street” saw the extraction of Saddam Hussein from that spider hole, then they saw the purple fingers brandished by free Iraqis, they all simply want some of that now for themselves.
How could this not happen? Tunisia, Egypt, Iran, Yemen-GW Bush pointed to center on this homer just like Babe Ruth did.
A. J. I would tend to agree with you. There is an excellent article in the weekly standard quoted below.
The millions of Arabs who took to the streets and risked their lives to bring an end to centuries of oppression are not likely to accept theocratic dictatorships after ridding themselves of tyrannical ruling dynasties. Most of the rebelling generation grew up in the age of transformative modern technologies and knowledge of their human rights. They spend more time debating worldly issues over social media than reading the Koran or going to mosques. Their perceptions of themselves and the world they want to be part of supersede nationalism, tradition, and religious indoctrination. This reality is overlooked in the current avalanche of analysis and predictions.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/fears-muslim-brotherhood-takeover-are-overblown_547427.html
I hope you all are right. It sound really idealistic though.
I feel more like I am watching Archduke Ferdinand step out into the streets of Sarajevo rather than GW crossing the Delaware.
The State Department, through Liz Cheney, spent millions over 4 years training the young, educated Egyptians in the orchestration of free elections. They were incensed by the corruption they experienced in Mubarak’s last election.
Today the “government”met with representatives of the broad-based youth movement that brought down the government after an 18-day uprising that transfixed the world. I mention this because it could be possible that the youth really understand the process of bringing democracy to this country.
I don’t know. I still remember 1979.
Ok, so Egypt went from being ruled by a despot installed by the army who was going to step down in 7 months to a military dictatorship that has said it will be at least 6 months before a new constitution can be produced and elections held.
Egypt’s leading “liberal” has announced the Camp David accords “dead”.
Egypt has no history of democracy or even a notion of individual liberty.
This is “change” in reverse as far as I am concerned.
I hate to sound wishy-washy but…
I’ve been overjoyed to see that Freedom’s spark is igniting the Middle East. I’m just worried that they’ll have to endure the Hell that is Shariah before they’re all on board…
Condi Rice wrote this today. The ending is….. “We have only one choice: to trust that in the long arc of history those shared beliefs will matter more than the immediate disruptions that lie ahead and that, ultimately, our interests and ideals will be well served.”
In my heart of hearts I know this to be true.
The people of the Middle East don’t have experience at self-governance. They don’t really have much experience at self-CONTROL.
I’m betting they’re soon going to have the big letdown:
“OK, Hassan, we won, we got rid of the hated Mubarak. Uh, … NOW what? You say ‘form a government’? Huh? How do you do that? You say ‘select candidates and have them campaign for office’? Huh? That sounds like work– slow, long-term, slogging work; I’ve got two wives and six kids to feed. I don’t have time for that camel-dung. … I know!!! Let’s ask our imam! He’s literate, and educated, and besides, he’s a Man of God (sic), so we know he’ll tell us what’s right!!! ”
“Hey, Achmed, that sounds like a great idea!! Let’s go ask the imam, let’s go right now!!!”
And so Egypt-the-somewhat-secular becomes Egypt-the-devout-Islamist state.