Nov 07 2006
My Predictions
So folks don’t need to wade through my three big posts below: Reps easily hold senate taking at most a two seat loss. Reps will also hold the house with Dems picking up a maximum of 9 seats. It get’s better from there if the GOP has a good turnout.
BTW – Please remember politics is my hobby not my profession (that would be engineering). Don’t run off believing I have a special insight! Math cannot measure passion.
Just a quick reminder: due to higher than expected turnout, Republicans vote on Tuesday and Democrats vote onb Wednesday.
Well I made my voice count and voted this morning. Pulled the lever for a straight ticket republican here in NH. Ahhh – that felt good!
I am an engineer too!!! GO GOP!!!
Mega dittos (as Rush says) to all the above comments! I just voted here in Illinois and then took myself out to breakfast. I think Hastert will be okay. Its the Governor’s race that I am not so sure about…Rod Blagojevich (D) and Judy Barr-Topinka (R). I did my bit and voted straight Rs!!!
Stay tuned…I will be by to post results here as I hear them for Illinois!
Carol
ditto Carol. Just voted in NYC. Turnout was moderately light in the a.m. at my polling station. Like I said…subway going to work was crowded…lines at the polls were not. We’ll see if that changes over the course of the day/evening.
One of the best political ads this year — and funny, too.
right or wrong AJ, you put it on the line…..
I voted this morning at 9:30 EST. The polls were practically empty and it is cold and raining. They had changed from computers to scanners. It took me 5 minutes from the time I walked in the door until I walked out the door. I hope people start coming.
Sunday evening we had a family gathering of 15 people for dinner to celebrate my mom’s 86th birthday. Of the 12 adults only my wife’s sister and her husband and my youngest daugthter’s fiance are Democrats. All the rest, to my knowledge, are Republicans.
We were sitting around the table eating dessert, and the subject of the election came up. My mom announced that she and my dad (life-long Republicans, mind you) were going to vote Democrat this time around. (mainly because our Congressman’s Donk opponent visited their retirement community, and they liked him) My brother-in-law and sister-in-law nodded their heads and muttered something about how our GOP Congressman was a jerk and didn’t deserve to be reelected. I piped up (with as straight a face as possible) and said that my wife and I had also decided to vote Democrat for the first time in our lives. My brother-in-law fell for the trap, hook, line and sinker. He asked what had caused my sudden epiphany.
I said there were a number of factors, including the fact that I didn’t think any of us were paying enough taxes, that I thought terrorists detainees deserved more rights, that it just wasn’t fair that we should listen in on terrorists’ phone calls or track their finances; it was certainly not fair that homosexuals couldn’t get married, but more than anything, it was the endorsement of the Democrats by the American Communist Party and a couple global terrorists groups.
There was this looooooong silence, and then someone changed the subject.
Later, on the way out the door, my wife’s brother (a staunch Republican) nudged me and whispered “WAY TO GO!!”
Well, off to vote – Straight “R” except for Senator Lugar (R-IN) who lost my vote when he supported the Senate bill that allowed illegal aliens to pay 3 of the last 5 years taxes and get credit for SS taxes withheld as part of a path toward citizenship) Lugar is running unopposed (can you believe an unopposed U.S. Senate race?), so all I’m doing is sending him a subtle message, as are a number of Republicans I know.
I just saw the funniest thing on Hugh Hewitt. Nancy Pelosi says that if dems don’t have a clear victory, they will deploy from congress and return to their home states. What she means is , “If I don’t get my way, I’m going to take my toys and go home. I wish she would.
DC hasn’t any votes that count nationally, but turnout in my normally heavily civic (D) precinct was light. The R running for city council ran a great campaign and was at the polls–I’d received several mailings and calls from her. Very organized..If turnout remains light, she has a chance.
I voted absentee yesterday. Florida, Escambia County, Pensacola. I voted straight “R” except the Governor’s race, which I left empty because I think Charlie Crist’s stunt yesterday was pure chickensh!t.
Just returned from voting in South Central VA. Its pouring rain. I have never seen so many voters at my heavily Republican precinct. I waited an hour to vote. I’m really pumped now as that will work to Allen’s advantage.
AJ, thanks for the outstanding work and analysis! Great comments above! I too voted a straight R ticket here in TX. Most of my family are D’s with the exception of a couple (out of 20) and most of my coworkers are upset with the President so their voting against the Republicans enmass (Govt employees upset with work issues). A huge mid-term suprise again this time would be sooo very sweet. Come on GOP! We’ll be ok at work. I’m not looking forward to Thanksgiving with the family EITHER way this year. They’ll either be besides themselves happy with the Dem victory, OR if I have my way, crushed and despondent with a GOP hold or Gain! No, no talking politics over turkey for sure this year!
Just voted in southwest IL. Turnout not real heavy yet in my precinct. Probably only about 20% thus far. If I had to guess, I’d say my area is probably 60-40 Dem….
One would think low to mid 40s might be the turnout ceiling here this time around.
I hear MO is getting bigtime turnout, though.
PS: Go Shimkus.
Taking my lunch break from driving lil’ol ladies and gents to the polls here in Texas.
Polls this morning empty. Afterwork probably heavier. 35% voter turnout expected.
It is taking longer to get the folks out of the van and to the front door then it is for them to vote.
The optical scanners here are great. Easy Easy Easy to mark your ballot and vote. All precincts should have this system.
Gotta run. Eat. And drive some more.
Just reported on WBAL (Baltimore – MD), voter turnout currently at 10%. Need Baltimore to get to 55/60 % for a Democratic win so they say.
Also argued on why this gets reported……
Low turnout in Baltimore REALLY favors Republicans
I am surprised they aren’t going to Okinawa. Voted here, too. Judging from my experiance the turnout is going to be high. We have the same machines we have had the last three years and the polling workers were having to explain how to use them to several people. That would tell me that there were a lot of first-time voters there this morning. That was confirmed as I was walking to my car and someone asked me directions to the polling place … same place it has been for a decade. So it looks like a lot of people that either haven’t voted before or haven’t voted in a long time are at the polls today. Maybe some of them died before we had electronic voting and aren’t familiar with the new machines.
Maybe some of them died before we had electronic voting and aren’t familiar with the new machines.
But see, Crosspatch, if we would allow Federal funding of embryonic stem cell research, they wouldn’t be dead, heh, heh.
Seriously, I just returned from voting — had to wait about 15 minutes (at 11:30AM). The poll workers said turnout was high during most of the morning.
I did learn something interesting. I heard two poll workers talking about absentee ballots, and I asked them when those would be counted. They said that absentee votes had already been manually entered into the electronic machines and would be included in the total at the end of the day as though they had been cast in person. I’m curious if that scenario is true in other parts of the country (I live in Northeastern Indiana).
Decision Day…
So, we’ll finally find out whether the months of mudslinging and vitriol will make any difference in the makeup of the House and Senate. Will the Democrats crack the GOP hold on the House or will they fall short? Can the GOP hold the Senate? I’m bett…