Dec 17 2006
Finally, Recognition Of The Polonium Smuggling Theory
Finally even the Times UK is now acknowledging that the amount of Polonium-210 used to kill Litvinenko (now down to only $10 million in value) was way beyond what was necessary for assassination, and are facing the possibility this was a smuggling ring gone bad:
British investigators believe that Alexander Litvinenko’s killers used more than $10 million of polonium-210 to poison him. Preliminary findings from the post mortem examination on the former KGB spy suggest that he was given more than ten times the lethal dose.
Police do not know why the assassins used so much of the polonium-210, and are investigating whether the poison was part of a consignment to be sold on the black market.They believe that whoever orchestrated the plot knew of its effects, but are unsure whether the massive amount was used to send a message — it made it easier for British scientists to detect — or is evidence of a clumsy operation.
All I can say is it is about time the media stop obsessing with less and less plausible assassination theories and look at the other alternatives. And I don’t say this to hope for vindication, but because the people of London and the UK need to know which threat they are dealing with. If it is was an assassination attempt it would be over. If it is something else it may just be beginning. That is important information to anyone facing dangerous nuclear materials floating around a major city. The amount of material is VERY important because the more that is being shipped around the more people who must be involved, and the less likely this is an assassination (or cheap to pull off).
A British security source said yesterday: “You can’t buy this much off the internet or steal it from a laboratory without raising an alarm so the only two plausible explanations for the source are that it was obtained from a nuclear reactor or very well connected black market smugglers.â€
Alexander Goldfarb, a friend of Litvinenko, said: “Only a state-sponsored organisation could obtain such a large amount of polonium-210 without raising suspicion on the international market.â€
There are few situations where entire elements of a government go rogue (outside brutal dictatorships which are, by definition, rogue governmemts). And the one situation that makes the most sense is during a coup d’etat. Organizations do go rogue when they are ready to overthrow the government.
What is now clear is authorities are admitting the Polonium-210 came in three shipments:
The first consignment is reported to have arrived in the second part of October. The rest arrived in two further batches but police do not know why the couriers risked smuggling further supplies into Britain when the original amount was sufficent to murder their target.
But look at the miniscule amounts needed to kill Litvinenko and it is easy to realize three shipments are just not needed to kill one man:
Experts reckon that as little as 0.1 micrograms of polonium-210 would be enough to kill — the equivalent of a single aspirin tablet divided into 10 million pieces.
As I pointed out in this earlier post today the only reason to have three installments is to move more than an aspirin’s worth of material. The fact is it would be very tough to measure out 1 millionth (let alone 1/10th of a millionth) of an aspirin – and who would even try? Just drop the whole thing into some tea – right? Why try and deal with one millionth of an apsirin? Another clear indication this was not a deliberate assassination but an accident. One could see Litvinenko accidentallu ingesting or inhaling a speck the size of one millionth of an aspirin.
Let’s be clear about what we are talkin about here. One gram of PO-210 can kill 100 million people, and one still needs to wonder why three trips are required to move one gram? Are we talking three grams – one per each trip into London? That would mean enough to kill 300 million people!. People who wonder why I get tired and frustrated with the ever weakeniing assassination theory need to digest what it means to dismiss this alternative scenario. We could be seeing a sea of dead Litvinenko’s soon, depending on how much PO-210 was travelling through London this October. And I doubt those three installments would only net 3 grams.
The German police said they had found contamination of a nature that was inconsistent with contamination from bodily fluids. This would lead me to believe they have found contamination in the form of one or more particles of the substance. It would be easy enough, if one had particles of this material on their clothing particularly around the area of the cuffs of a shirt or jacket, to accidentally shed a particle into one’s food or drink.
Given the level of contamination in Lugovoi’s room (last I heard, his room was still sealed off) and the contamination trail discovered on previous trips and the fact that at least some of the contamination trail appears to come from body fluids of the other players, it would seem that Litvinenko isn’t the only one who ingested some of this material over time. It could be that his final dose was an accumulation over the three trips too, and not a single massive dose. It can take weeks after ingestion for symptoms to first appear. The first trip was only some two weeks before the final one. It is very possible that he could have already been a “dead man walking” before the final trip.
I can understand the papers hyping this as some great conspiracy because that is what sells papers. Also, journalists like to write a good story and which is more interesting, a story of potential intrigue by a mysterious foreign power, or bumbling smugglers who contaminated themselves with their own wares?
Yes, AJ, the important questions are how much of this stuff is there, where did it come from, and where was it bound.
AJ,
I agree, this recognition is good news, important, and probably weeks behind the authorities at M-15 and elsewhere.
I think that the amounts you mention–and the implied scenarios of a million or more dead–are not plausible under most scenarios in which Lugovoi et al were working for a third party, ie the Chechnens, AQ, etc. Why would they work for the devastation of their homeland? That does not make sense to me.
What fits better–and I think it’s a long shot on the order of 10%–is that old Mother Russia is moving large amounts in a bid to effectively take over the world. This is right out of a James Bond movie. One could further speculate that Putin is doing it with about a year left to his reign, and the shocking weakness the West has shown over the past year or so. Why this would be preferable to an all-out atomic attack is beyond me, something of that scale would have no “plausible denial,” and would leave Russia open to massive retailiation.
I cannot see why these guys would conduct an operation on the scale you posit for the benefit of the Islamofacists.
I think on balance that we have to look at more modest scenarios.
Of cloaks and daggers and poison and suitcase nukes — Update 3…
See previous.Finally, Recognition Of The Polonium Smuggling Theory A J Strata Finally even the Times UK is now acknowledging that the amount of Polonium-210 used to kill Litvinenko (now down to only $10 million in value) was way beyond what…
Of cloaks and daggers and poison and suitcase nukes — Update 3 …
See previous. Finally, Recognition Of The Polonium Smuggling Theory A J Strata …
…
AJ,
Your smuggling scenario is looking stronger by the day. Thanks for all the updates. One way to get a feel for how much Polonium 210 was being smuggled would be to know how much is needed to trigger a dirty bomb. Any idea?
Gotta Know
hen you think about it Putin is having a hard time controlling Russia itself. I doubt he wants to take over the rest of the world during the l year he has left in his term.
The point is that Bereszovsky wants to overtake power in Russia and I doubt if he would stick at anything to acaquire this power.
AJ
This idea that this smuggling ring is exporting polonium for dirty bombs or even nuclear bombs is what has been worrying me. I really don’t care how or why Litvinenko was killed. But I do care about the fate of the world and the fate of the people of Russia. With terrorists intent on eliminating us in any way possible we cannot overlook any weapons they might acquire. I never could understand why the assassinologists would not look at the big picture but stayed bogged down in conspiracy theories when our very lives might depend on what happened in London.
I dunno. Just because Target sells toilet paper, it doesn’t make it a “toilet paper store.”
Yes. SOMETHING was being smuggled! Polonium? Only if someone SOLD these smugglers a bill of goods!
You think I’m kidding? No. I’m not. It’s like someone sold the greedy retards a “treasure map,” saying that if they “had this” they’d find some pirate’s treasure, somewhere. (And, yes. There used to be a market for crap like that.) Maybe? Still is. But these times would have the thieves convinced the treasure was “seen” by ships who mapped the outlines out at the bottom of the sea. (You don’t think opportunists work off the details on how the Titanic’s treasures were brought up?)
So, we don’t KNOW what this ring has been smuggling for years and years. But then? They bought this one! Hook, line, and sinker.
No fingerprints.
And, very nervous thieves who’ve used the press to drop McGuffins. Why? Because there’s an industry out there dedicated to propaganda. And, spin.
And, then? The lonely blogs. Where we try to figure things out just like Sherlock did. The head guy at Scotland Yard was a fella who reached the top “by going by the book.” Sherlock thought that stuff just led to blind alleys.
Where are we now? WHo knows?
But it’s nice that the Imam didn’t want the casket! I’ll bet he doesn’t want materials from russia, now, either. SInce he’s been given a close up look at radiation poisoning. And, he didn’t like what he saw.
Did the Imam also visit his “parisioner while Litvenenko was so sick?
I ask. Because I have no idea! I do, know, however, that hospitals today, be they here in the USA, or in Britain. Probably have the ministers, priests and rabbi’s, on standby. What do the muslims do?
And, why is this story so vulnerable to holes? Chernobyl was easy to figure out. Stupidity. And, poor management skills. While working with nuclear material.
If the russian government can’t monitor Chernobyl, why assume it’s able to monitor anything at all? Then you get to the fringe elements. If they can be fooled, where would you start?
Polonium is not used to ‘trigger’ a dirty bomb. It could plausibly be placed around a conventional explosive. Regardless, why spend millions upon millions for a dirty bomb? Spent nuclear fuel is far cheaper if not less deadly. Cost-benefit analysis, in my mind, makes P-210 dirty bombs a senseless deployment of a valuable weapon.
Lending credence to a smuggling scenario, the question is: Precisely what method(s) would be the best emplyment of such a weapon?
Not a Polonium expert, but I would suggest that it just may be a bit heavy for an effective dispersal through a public water system.
But the lethality is absolutely sobering. But getting the theoretical hundreds of millions of people their lethal dosages is quite another question. I would suggest that a far, far, far smaller number of potential victims would instead just be really, really, really dead.
Two cents.
Jforrik,
Any amount could be used as a dirty bomb (the trigger mode is in real nuclear bombs). Given the fact 1 gram can kill 100 million the only question is how far can it be dispersed by the explosion. In a city like London 0.5 per bomb would seem reasonable. Honestly I don’t know – but it need not be a whole lot.
Steve,
Thanks for stopping by. The dispersion is always the problem. But don’t think one massive explosion. Think spread out smaller ones and you can see the difference between a shotgun and a single bullet.
Gotta Know
Russia is not the homeland of the Chechen terrorists. They want to be free of Russia. They would not care one iota if everyone in Russia is killed. They are infidels after all. And remember the Beslan massacre. They were cruel and inhuman to CHILDREN and treated them like animals before they killed as many as they could.
The question is, why smuggle it to London?
If you are targeting Russia, London might be a transhipment point….but there is no reason to open the Po-210 containers, and very good reason not to.
But if this is an Al Quaeda effort, possibly with Chechen help….London is #2 on the target list.
Which worries me greatly….since Washington, DC, is #1 on the hit parade.
AJ,
For reasons you have mentioned, London seems more like the hub than the final destination. Plus, why would Litvinenko and Berezovsky contaminate their own city? They showed no signs of moving, at least none reported. And where could they go?
I thnk M-15 knows something and therefore they are very sensitive about dirty bombs, but I think they’ve mistaken the target city.
It has been clear from the outset that Kovtun at least was tracking PO on each of his three trips fromMoscow beginning on Oct 16. No news there.
It’s been clear from the outset that Litvinenko received a dose far in excess of a fatal dose. No news there.
We are still left with the same questions: Who did it? Why the massive does?(Error or to send a message?)
It’s been clear from the beginning that the amount of PO used would be expensive were there a market for it. But there isn’t. It is hard to see who would want it or why.
It’s been reported credibly that in the past Russian pains in the ass have been poisoned by PO and thallium and every other horribly bio chem-nuke poison man has concoted.
Clarice,
In your third paragraph you jump to a surprising conclusion that you treat as a given: “Who did it?” You cannot take that for granted, it is simply not an established fact that he was murdered.
There has never been another PO death apart from Curie’s assistant, who died of leukemia 10 years after the fact. And this assassination was in London, not Russia, which would raise the assassination stakes considerably.
I am (still) 70-30 in favor of smuggling, but I’m not conceding any “fact” to either theory, unless it really is.
Wrong–threads ago someone cited an article of other Russian dissidents being killed by it.
Scotland Yard is treating it as a murder investigation, and that, too, among other thingssuggests muder(not accident) to me.
Do you have a link? I’ve never seen a single mention of another PO murder. And I think it’s another impressive leap to say Scotland Yard is treating it as a murder investigation, what leads you to say that? Someone may have said as much at some point, but that doesn’t mean they are–certainly the Germans aren’t, and are open about that. And the very article of this post suggests otherwise.
To kill 300-million people, you’d need a mushroom shaped cloud that stretches from Ameica’s east coast to its west coast.
So what’s the delivery system?
The “tea cup” could not have had contents that were swallowed straight.
And, the “method” of delivery sure seems to show a great deal of ignorance from those within the smuggling ring.
And, no one mentions North Korea. They’d have polonium to spare, wouldn’t they?
Yes. Europe has to worry! The House of Saud has provided a global network of mosques, which chants out calls to destroy the west. (But then? Why would the Imam get so nervous over one body in a casket?)
I thought polonium could be stopped by a piece of tissue paper. So what about a thick wooden box. That’s lined? And, there’s no huffing and puffing coming from the guy IN the box, either.
But IF detectives are UNHAPPY that this story is still “walking about,” and they’ve been feeding the “assassination” story. Perhaps, to cover something else?
Beyond the hysteria, could you really kill a great number of people ALL at once? Could this be thrown into the water works, for instance? And, then just come out of the tap?
Water goes through so much processing, you’ve got to wonder if the pipes wouldn’t be closed IF THE CHEMISTRY was dangerous. And, while we don’t associate workers “behind out pipes,” water, I’m sure; just like sewers, have 24/7 crews on duty ALWAYS.
For dispersal, what’s the greatest fear?
And, if polonium is so dangerous, why has access to it been so easy?
Got to Know, scotland yard referred to the death as ‘unnatural’ then later labelled it a murder. Means that they found enough evidence to consider it a murder.
If this was to be used by terrorists, I think it could cause a lot of ‘terror’ without killing large numers of people. I think talk of diry bombs and releasing it into the water is missing the point. it could be used to attack high profile people while the world watches them die. or even spray 5 people on a train here, 5 people in a supermarket ect ect. The result would be terror among the population, people afraid to go out, to travel ect ect. This po210 can cause spectacular terror without killing large numbers of people and without too much effort from the terrorist. The world has now had a demonstration of its effectiveness and regardless of whether this was a smuggling ring or an assasination I bet there are terrorists jumping up and down wanting to get their hands on this stuff and that if very frightening.