Mar 08 2008
How Bad Off Is The GOP This Year? We will Learn A Lot Today
Final Update: It seems there may be more at play in this special election than one of my readers first indicated (and then denied – the comments are there for folks to parse). Another reader, WWS, notes this factor:
Foster’s ads reminded voters that Oberweis — who campaigned on a very hard line against illegal immigrants — was found to have two working for a subcontractor at one of his ice cream shops.
…
Oberweis has lost three statewide campaigns for U.S. Senate and governor, taking heat each time for controversial statements and ads, including one in which he hovered in a helicopter above Soldier Field, complaining that 10,000 illegal aliens enter the country every day, enough to fill Soldier Field every week. Experts disputed his numbers.
I was not following this race at all (in fact did not know it was happening until last night) so I was not aware Oberweis was an Immigration Hypochondriac (which I thought made one a ‘true conservative’ if you listen to talk radio). It was a close race, so I suggest the GOP find another contender – one that doesn’t repulse conservatives in a district that has been deep red for two decades.
Updates Below
There is special election today in Illinois to replace Denny Hastert, former GOP Speaker of the House. The election will be a signal as to how the GOP is doing this year, and so far it has looked bleak as a very conservative district has turned very competitive:
Democrat Bill Foster and Republican Jim Oberweis are virtually deadlocked in what should be a solidly Republican district in the northern Illinois exurbs, according to polls and political observers.
In the past few days, two independent political handicappers, Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg, each have reassessed the contest as a toss-up instead of one that leans in favor of Oberweis. At least one poll has shown Foster with a slim lead in the final days of the campaign.
Democrats are salivating over the possibility of picking up not just a Republican-held district but the one that had been the official seat of House GOP power for the eight years before Democrats’ takeover in 2006.
The Dems in Congress have performed less than stellar, and they actually rank below Bush in terms of popular support. The fact this race is even in doubt is an illustration of how badly the GOP has self destructed. Hopefully its image is on the mend with things looking up in Iraq and all the Dems predictions of failure there have been proven totally wrong. We will know soon enough.
Booman Tribune has a good map of the district IL-14, and here is a link to the results. So far nothing (8:53 PM Eastern).
8:58 PM Eastern: 12% reporting in and the dem is winning 55%-45%. Probably too early but not a good sign from what was a deep red district.
10:10 PM Eastern: Dems win. Reader Vince tells me frustrated ‘true conservatives didn’t get their person so they stayed home and helped elect a Democrat. And people wonder why ‘true conservatives’ are not considered reliable, credible or honorable political allies? So the purists will risk everything to get their way. OK – as long they are in the minority and without a voice at the table they can pretend that plan is working to their hearts content.
A real conservative ran against Oberweis in the primary. But Hastert and the GOP establishment decided to back the insider Oberweis.
So conservatives stayed home.
The GOP learns nothing.
LOL! Wait till the night is over Vince before you crow too much.
I dont know why you think i’m gloating or crowing.
It’s the way it is.
Vince, your argument makes conservatives look like adolescent ninnies. You said because the party backed “the wrong candidate”, that conservatives played a “passive aggressive” tactic of electing a Democrat by not voting. Oh, boy, I bet things are much better now! And the funniest part of it all is that the “conservatives” will go around blaming the other Republicans for it (as you did here) when it is the fault of the “conservatives” themselves.
The lesson is that “conservatives” can’t be trusted. They have problems controlling their emotions and can not use their head over those emotions. They act like spoiled children. They would set fire to the barn rather than take possession of a pony different from the one they wanted.
Well go for it, and I don’t want to hear any whining out of Illinois “conservatives” either. They brought it on themselves, they better shut up and deal with what they created.
Ninnies? Terrye, you out there? Don’t you have something to say?
😉
The only one steeped in emotions and immature blather is you crosspatch.
I don’t think so. I said your posting painted conservatives as ninnies and I stand by that.
You know the kind I am talking about. It is the same behavior as the “If I can’t have it, then nobody can have it” mentality. If I can’t get my way, I will make sure you can’t get your way. The lesson learned is don’t ally with conservatives, they can’t be trusted.
This is politics. Politics is all about compromise. Our Constitution itself is a mastery of compromise. It is a good thing our founders weren’t of the “my way or the highway” mentality or we would never have a country.
So the conservatives have elected a Democrat if they did indeed stay home. They should congratulate themselves. Maybe they should go join the Democrats. All I am seeing out of the conservatives are is a bunch of self-destructive behavior. I am a Republican first. To the Conservatives I say go make your own party and quit getting the opposition to mine elected. The conservatives are the best allies the Democrats have right now.
Great! I’d love a history lesson from Crosspatch. Surely you can fill us in on the plethora of compromises that our founding fathers made with King George. “My way or the highway”? I believe they were boats full of pissed off soon-to-be Americans.
Lets see what we have here.
The Dems spent over a million (mostly out of the candidates own pocket) and the Rep spent a million.
The Dem won.
What’s next..
The start at it again in a couple of weeks for the race in November.
Yup this election today just fills the seat till November then it’s all done over again.
Hastert was a real conservative wasn’t he? He was to the right of Bush on many issues like immigration. I think that whole Foley business {silly as it was} hurt him.
I don’t know if conservatives stayed home or not, if they did they really are ninnies. They expect everyone else to suck it up, why can’t they?
But I am not sure if that is really true or not. We like to blame the 2006 election on conservatives staying home, but in truth the Republicans lost Independents in 06 more than they did conservatives. And I do not know if that is not the case here or not.
It might just be that this race is part of an ongoing backlash against the right from Independents who helped elect another Democrat.
Whatever the case, the Democrat won. He is not a true conservative. He is not everything the purists say an elected official must be in order to truly represent conservatives. So I guess that if the loss of this seat was a result of real conservatives staying home because their guy did not get the nod, it just goes to show that real conservatives bite off their noses to spite their faces because they now have a rep who is in no way beholden to them.
The other guy might have been on their side at least a good deal of the time. Now they got a Democrat in Hastert’s seat. And somehow they think that is a lesson to the rest of us. Huh?
So which is it? Did the Republicans run off the Independents by going too far to the right? Or did the real honest to God conservatives stay home like bad children and help elect a Democrat?
Neither inspires confidence in the true blue conservative brand right now. These guys need to suck it up and grow up. They need to look at the changing political map and either adapt to it, or find ways to convince people that their brand of politics is viable.
Or they can sit back and pout. Whichever. I am just glad McCain got the nomination, at least we have a chance with him.
I hope that when November comes this trend as changed. I really do.
BTW, if Hastert is such a stand up conservative, why did he pick now to quit? Is he sick? I saw him on the news not long ago and he had lost a lot of weight.
Actually 75, if you had ever read any history of the making of this country and the writing of the Constitution and the transition from the confederation of Colonies to the United States you would realize that all sorts of compromise was necessary or they would never would have gotten the Constitution ratified at all..
There was compromise on religion, slavery, states rights, how representatives were elected and virtually every aspect of the document was debated and discussed in town hall meetings throughout the colonies. The founding fathers did not create the Constitution by fiat.
And at first they were more than willing to compromise with the King. Initially they did not want seperation from Great Britain. A time came however, when they felt that the die was cast as they say.
But these men were not fanatics.
They were not the kind of people who would ally themselves with the British just to show George Washington how unhappy they were with his early performance as General. They were not like that at all. They were not the kind of people who would have sit back while the Tories helped the British starve American troops because they wanted to make sure that all and sundry knew exactly how they felt about the way the Revolution was going. No sir, they would not betray their own in a fit of pique.
John Adams said that America was divided into thirds, one third Torie, one third Timid and one third True Blue.
Maybe it still is.
Lets see what we have here.
It didn’t realize this was a special election. Between now and then, they will see how well this winner will perform. Maybe this will give the stay-at-homers will start to have buyer’s remorse.
Off-topic, MerlinOS, what do you think about Northrup winning the tanker award pissing the Boeing employees off? Will this hurt McCain in the November election? Maybe but I think there will be so many things that will come out that will hurt Obama and Clinton between now until November.
It really is mind-boggling to see that the Pentagon was willing to sacrifice a military contract to a foreign country, especially when Sarkozy and Merkel finally agreed to a merging EU with Islam.
found this in a report this morning:
“Foster’s ads reminded voters that Oberweis — who campaigned on a very hard line against illegal immigrants — was found to have two working for a subcontractor at one of his ice cream shops.”
Looks like Oberweis tried to play the “let’s all hate Mexicans!” card and got shown to be a hypocrite. I would have voted against him, too.
Here’s news for the “true conservatives” – every one I’ve seen that has tried the hard core anti-immigrant pitch as a campaign theme has lost. Oberweis is just the latest example.
I should have given my source.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/833484,election030908.article
“Oberweis has lost three statewide campaigns for U.S. Senate and governor, taking heat each time for controversial statements and ads, including one in which he hovered in a helicopter above Soldier Field, complaining that 10,000 illegal aliens enter the country every day, enough to fill Soldier Field every week. Experts disputed his numbers.”
With that as his campaign theme, he deserved to lose.
WWS, conservatives are not anti-Mexican. They understand that any special treatment or amnesty for Mexicans is a slap in the face to all other immigrants who came here legally…including those who are Hispanic! It’s a legal and fairness issue, certainly not racist.
Terrye, no one claimed our founding fathers were fanatics. Having seen your many examples of creating the positions of your opponents out of thin air, it’s patently obvious you are incapable of honest debate. My leftist acquaintances use the very same tactic and it doesn’t work for them either except amongst the truly pathetic believer. So I recommend in the future that your responses to your opponents be directed from the position of their actual viewpoint rather than your own foggy notion of them.
I live in the adjacent district, things have changed rapidly from was once small towns and rural farming areas consistantly electing Hastert, to suburban sprawl, many Chicagoans escaping the city, more Dems, lots of them.
Also, the Oberweis appeal has worn thin, unfortunately he plans to run against Foster again in November making it his fourth run. Doesn’t matter what the office is, he can be counted on to run for anything that comes up.
Agreed, the immigration commercial was horrible, so were all the other nasty, negative ads he ran, yet I don’t think one could say it’s a conservative vs. Republican thing in this area, it was a stale candidate.
We are problems recruiting quality candidates, remember this one? Obama/Keyes — and we still suffer under the stain of Gov. Ryan. Also, f the good ol boys type of organization they are operating within the party doesn’t change, Foster won’t have much to worry about in November. What a mess?