Mar 08 2008
How Bad Off Is The GOP This Year? We will Learn A Lot Today
Final Update: It seems there may be more at play in this special election than one of my readers first indicated (and then denied – the comments are there for folks to parse). Another reader, WWS, notes this factor:
Foster’s ads reminded voters that Oberweis — who campaigned on a very hard line against illegal immigrants — was found to have two working for a subcontractor at one of his ice cream shops.
…
Oberweis has lost three statewide campaigns for U.S. Senate and governor, taking heat each time for controversial statements and ads, including one in which he hovered in a helicopter above Soldier Field, complaining that 10,000 illegal aliens enter the country every day, enough to fill Soldier Field every week. Experts disputed his numbers.
I was not following this race at all (in fact did not know it was happening until last night) so I was not aware Oberweis was an Immigration Hypochondriac (which I thought made one a ‘true conservative’ if you listen to talk radio). It was a close race, so I suggest the GOP find another contender – one that doesn’t repulse conservatives in a district that has been deep red for two decades.
Updates Below
There is special election today in Illinois to replace Denny Hastert, former GOP Speaker of the House. The election will be a signal as to how the GOP is doing this year, and so far it has looked bleak as a very conservative district has turned very competitive:
Democrat Bill Foster and Republican Jim Oberweis are virtually deadlocked in what should be a solidly Republican district in the northern Illinois exurbs, according to polls and political observers.
In the past few days, two independent political handicappers, Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg, each have reassessed the contest as a toss-up instead of one that leans in favor of Oberweis. At least one poll has shown Foster with a slim lead in the final days of the campaign.
Democrats are salivating over the possibility of picking up not just a Republican-held district but the one that had been the official seat of House GOP power for the eight years before Democrats’ takeover in 2006.
The Dems in Congress have performed less than stellar, and they actually rank below Bush in terms of popular support. The fact this race is even in doubt is an illustration of how badly the GOP has self destructed. Hopefully its image is on the mend with things looking up in Iraq and all the Dems predictions of failure there have been proven totally wrong. We will know soon enough.
Booman Tribune has a good map of the district IL-14, and here is a link to the results. So far nothing (8:53 PM Eastern).
8:58 PM Eastern: 12% reporting in and the dem is winning 55%-45%. Probably too early but not a good sign from what was a deep red district.
10:10 PM Eastern: Dems win. Reader Vince tells me frustrated ‘true conservatives didn’t get their person so they stayed home and helped elect a Democrat. And people wonder why ‘true conservatives’ are not considered reliable, credible or honorable political allies? So the purists will risk everything to get their way. OK – as long they are in the minority and without a voice at the table they can pretend that plan is working to their hearts content.
If only politics was as clear cut as so many of you think…
Years ago I belonged to a Republican Women’s group when Jim Wright was Speaker of the House. While we were all busy campaigning for George H.W. Bush many of the women in the group were actively supporting Jim Wright because of his influence and power and ability to bring money and contracts back to the district. Many of them were dependent on those industries that required those contracts.
After 34 years of Jim Wright there were about 8 more years of a Dem and now about 11 years of a Republican…
It’s all about the money…and Hastert’s district may have been more blue than anyone thought but his influence and power was the reason it appeared red. There is no Red or Blue when in comes to money and power. To many – power trumps ideology. Sad but true.
This from Rick Moran at American Thinker this morning:
March 09, 2008
Democrats win Special Election to replace Hastert by R. Moran
Rick Moran
It’s easy to read way too much into this result – so of course, the media and Democrats are doing so.
A longtime Republican district fell Saturday to the Democrats when a wealthy businessman and scientist snatched former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s congressional seat in a closely watched special election.
Democrat Bill Foster won 53 percent of the vote compared to 47 percent for Republican Jim Oberweis. With all 568 precincts reporting, Foster had 52,010 votes to Oberweis’ 46,988.
“Tonight our voices are echoing across the country and Washington will hear us loud and clear — it’s time for a change,” Foster told cheering supporters Saturday evening.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen said Foster’s win is a rebuke of the Bush administration and of the GOP’s apparent presidential nominee, John McCain, who helped raise money for Oberweis.
“This is going to send a political shockwave across the country in this election year,” Van Hollen said.
There is much room for caution on the part of those who see this election as indicative of anything.
1. Everyone knows the GOP is in trouble. And Illinois is one of their biggest headaches. There are three open seats as a result of retirements, one of which has been filled by a Democrat already. The other two seats are in jeapordy because the GOP has failed to recruit strong candidates.
2. But there are also a couple of Democratic rookie Congressmen who are vulnerable as a result of extremely narrow victories in the Mid Term elections of 2006. The bottom line is turnout. In a general election, there will be nearly three times the number of people who turned out yesterday to vote (turnout was an abysmal 20%). And compared to the Mid Term election that saw Democrat Melissa Bean win an extremely close election in one of the most Republican districts in the state, the increased turnout in the general election will probably swamp her – if the GOP can come up with a good enough candidate.
3. Oberweiss is a weak candidate. He has run for office 6 times in the last six years and has failed to win any race. But he’s rich and seems willing to pour his own money into the race. Chances are good that he will win in November.
National polls indicate a slight uptick in the number of people who identify themselves as Democrats. There is no massive movement to the left as evidenced by the presidential polls; we are still, as AT Political Correspondent Rich Baehr has pointed out numerous times on my show, a “50-50 country.”
The Democrats are kidding themselves if they think that 20% turnout in a district that went 55% for George Bush in 2004 means anything meaningful except Democrats are energized at the moment. Let us revisit this district again next November. If Foster hangs on, it will probably mean a GOP disaster nationwide.
75,
And of course those here who are trying to prove that they have the power and the conservatives have lost theirs will tow the media line.
And of course they must bring in the immigration issue. They blame conservatives for being too inflexible on immigration and destroying the party, yet those here are just as inflexible on the issue and don’t see in any way how they might be destroying the party.
Whippet, “immigration” is the biggest cherry picked to paint conservatives as “inflexible” because it appeals to the left’s emoitionally-based decision making process rather than the conservative results-based process. Well, nothing’s more “flexible” than allowing 11 million to by-pass the law that everyone else must adhere to. Unless, of course, you consider another 30 million right behind them as being even more “flexible” yet! 😉
AJ,
I find it very revealing that in your addendum to this post you accuse a commentor of leaving information out of his original comments about the special election and I don’t see where anyone has denied anything in the comments either as your addendum states.
You are the one who originally posted the topic so are we then to assume that you were also being dishonest by ommission (as was implied in your addendum) or simply uninformed as to all of the dynamics about this particular race. Or was it that it only became an issue when you were informed that immigration could have played a role in the outcome? Is it possible that the commentor was as uninformed about this issue as you were?
Maybe if you were as willing to point out the innacurracies of those who agree with you as you are of those who don’t you would appear more credible. I don’t doubt your intent and integrity but I do doubt your ability to be objective.
75,
I agree. And the media knows exactly how and who to manipulate.
10:10 PM Eastern: Dems win. Reader Vince tells me frustrated ‘true conservatives didn’t get their person so they stayed home and helped elect a Democrat. And people wonder why ‘true conservatives’ are not considered reliable, credible or honorable political allies? So the purists will risk everything to get their way. OK – as long they are in the minority and without a voice at the table they can pretend that plan is working to their hearts content.
How sad. What makes you think people are going to vote for people who don’t represent them? I mean… duh.
But go on… continue thinking that the Republican Party can excise all conservativism from their plank… see how well that works out for you.
yes, to bad the “real” conservatives coulnd’t find another pork rendering, spending like a drunk sailor, keep quiet about financial corruption and inappropriate behaviors, pedophile republican to elect.
I think they are running out of them…as most of them have been completely disagraced and run out of office or are in jail or on probation.
Dc, Mad Murtha’s a democrat.
The point about the anti-immigrant politics is that is that everyone who tries to make that a base of their campaign LOSES. J.D. Hayworth? Gone. Tom Tancredo? Went nowhere in the pres primary, and gone from politics after this time. I’ve seen it tried by various lower level office seekers in Texas – everyone who tries it loses.
And of course, the man that “conservatives” hated for his attempt to fix immigration is now the presidential nominee. How’s that for voting power? So-called “conservatives” may still have the power to screw things up for themselves even more, but their ability to get elected and make real changes ranks somewhere between “diddly” and “squat”.
Dc: Barney Frank isn’t from Illinois
Missy1,
Thanks, it is great to get the perspective from those on the ground. Sounds like a tired candidate to me too. But the ‘true conservatives’ are claiming they helped the Dem win by staying home – so I guess we all them a vote of thanks for being so short sighted!
AJ,
Very nice of you to note someone on the ground with their perspective of the race…but then you had to go over the top again…
One person has commented that the conservatives stayed home from the polls rather than vote for the candidate they didn’t like and you lump him in with the rest of us… just to try and prove your point…and it proves nothing other than that people can lose all perspective on the issues they are the most passionate about.
AJ just doesn’t get it. People do not like Oberwis. Here’s some data:
Survey USA data on the IL-14 candidates
Is your opinion of Jim Oberweis … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Jim Oberweis?
38% Favorable
49% Unfavorable
12% Neutral
1% Unfamiliar
Compare to Democrat Foster:
Is your opinion of Bill Foster … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Bill Foster?
42% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
22% Neutral
5% Unfamiliar
Oberweiss was endorsed by Hastert and John McCain and was receiving scarce funds from the NRCC (even though he’s a millionare) and he still couldn’t win a seat from a district that elected hastert in 2006 during the Foley scandal with a 60% share.
DC,
At least we try to rid ourselves from our corrupt polititians…your party elects yours, gives them prime committee appointments and more power. You’re naive if you think there isn’t political corruption on both sides of the aisle. What matters is what’s done with them when that corruption is uncovered and the Democrats legacy on this issue is far from pristine…
Vince, I think AJ doesn’t understand conservatives. He seems to think that we are as enamored with moderate republicans as he is. Apparently it doesn’t occur to him that we don’t see much difference between leftist democrats and those who deal with them. I offer this perspective for AJ:
The Dems are offering us mud, the mods offer dirt, and the conservatives offered several different options of beef (Reagan would be filet, of course). He can’t grasp the concept that we won’t settle for dirt. But he certainly wants to blame us for not eating it, doesn’t he? Man, has this blog deteriorated. Used to be one of my favorites.
I’ve been spending the past hour looking at blogs regarding the IL-14 GOP Primary between Oberweiss and Lauzen.
I can’t find ONE where anyone displays any affection for Oberweiss.
They all almost universally say
– He runs for any office he can and never wins
– He’s an arsehole
– Thinks he can buy his seat
– He undermines the grassroot volunteers because of his own money (which he outspent the otehr guy 4 to 1 ) and the support of Hastert and his Washington cronies)
So this is a classic case of the idiots in teh GOP High Command totally demoralizing their grassroots.
75: I look at it this way… if a “moderate” Republican is not going to be standing for conservative principals then what good is he? If I wanted a de-facto Democrat I would be a Democrat. I live in Chicago, so I’m used to being completely disenfranchised locally.
Here are the local newspaper endorsements for the Special Election last night:
The Daily Herald
The Tribune
Aurora Beacon News
Here are various people’s opinion at http://thecapitolfaxblog.com/2008/03/04/oberweis-vs-foster/
-Who will win? Not the district’s voters, that’s for sure.
-That’s a real tough district for a Dem to win. I’ll say this: Oberweis is a total buffoon. If a Repub can’t get the Tribune to endorse him, he’s got real problems
-Helicopter Jim is too crazy to ever get elected to public office. He’d be an embarrassment to the 14th and to the State as a whole. As bad as Blagojevich is, Oberweiss is a hundred times further out there.
[It’s really bad to compared NEGATIVELY against the universally loathed Blagojevich]
-Oberweis is like this years weather. Oh no, snow again?!! I believe people would rather have Oberweis disappear than see his goofy face and commercials. Foster will win 53%-47%.
-This is one of those races where the wrong choice of candidate reduces a party’s safe seat to a forever lost seat. Obie is just too controversial, and stirs up such negative feelings that a good number of people will make sure they get to the polls just to vote against him. GOP’ers are less than enthused with him, as well. His run-for-everything-until-I-win-something approach is just getting to be comedic.
The GOP loses because the GOP does not know how to please the voters would vote for them. Pure and simple.
AJ blames the voters. As if the voters have any obligation to keep a fraud of a political party in power.
Here’s my take for what it’s worth…
From AJ’s Bio:
“I left the democrat party for good to become an independent (for good it seems) during Reagan’s first term. When I realized that not only had all the Chicken Little predictions from the democrats not come true, but that Reagan was demonstrating what conservatives principles and ideas could create. I would never allow myself to be manipulated by any political party again. I am an unabashed conservative, but the fringes worry me and I am glad to see that the political and independent middle now determine which way this country will go.”
AJ felt manipulated by the Democrats so he left that party. Per his postings he feels like he has been shunned by the GOP so he doesn’t want to be a part of that party. He critisizes those within the GOP who critisize some of their own as if there aren’t phylosophical differences within both parties on which people can differ. And then he critisizes the manner in which those people choose to debate while debating in the same manner himself.
I think AJ chooses to be party-free not because he has been shunned but because he doesn’t want any party allegiance – period. That then allows him to critisize everyone working within the parties for change instead of doing that himself and then no one can accuse him of “destroying” his own party. Very convenient don’t you think?
I don’t think any less of AJ for not wanting to be aligned with any party…that’s his right, however I don’t think his motivations are as clear as they should be.