Jim Geraghty’s mentor Obi-wan Kenobi agrees with my assessment that either there is a historically high Democrat advantage this year, or historic voting patterns will dominate and McCain-Palin could win: So here is the McCain supporter’s homework assignment. First, polls like Gallup, Washington Post/ABC, and some of the others with voting models that give enormous advantages […]

Will historians look back on this election on ponder exactly what was it that pushed a centrist like McCain into the White House over liberal Obama? If so they may find this little ditty emblematic of where Obama stumbled (H/T Powerline). And while listening to this note that McCain’s internal polls indicate he will win […]

Just a little over a day before election day and Obama is fading fast in key battleground states and in the EC projections. A month ago Obama was projected to have a 330-175 Electoral College blow out. But now he has seen once strong battleground states drop into ties this weekend. Take VA, which is […]

Tonight we come to the 2nd to the last of the nightly reports where I continue to track the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters. Due to The Who concert tomorrow night I might no be able to produce a complete report early because I am sure the ABC/WaPo poll will […]

Another 2 point lead for Obama in a national poll which translates into the race being all tied up, and by the most accurate polling firm from 2004: The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the […]

Is McCain heading towards a landslide? Is Obama going to lose New Jersey and California? Well if you believe this audio then this is what internal GOP polls are saying. A blogger pulled out the salient numbers: New Jersey: McCain leads 48 to 43, with 7% undecided. Michigan: McCain leads 44 to 42, with 10% […]

If people think heating and electricity are expensive now, just wait until Obama bankrupts the coal industry and we lose even more domestic energy sources

A lot of people claim there is no last minute surge for McCain – yet we see Obama slipping in PA, VA and now Ohio – with a poll showing McCain in the lead by 2%. Those who claim not to see a surge away from Obama in these final days must be looking the […]

Another leading polling expert, this time for the Washington Post, comes clean about the uncertainties in the voter turnout models which have produced Obama leads of +2 (a tie) to +15 in the same week from different pollsters. A must read for Americans so they understand why polls usually get the race wrong (only 1 […]

If the early voting trends are a hint of what is to come on Tuesday then the news is not great for Obama. In Wisconsin (deep blue normally) early voting is up – across the board. It is up by 25% in democrat heavy big cities, and up 40-50% in GOP havens outside the cities: […]